Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

    Here we go

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 212
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Stunners tonight in the South East. Finally clear skies in what seems like weeks of endless low clouds

    Well, that was a brilliant night.  I have attached some photos and a timelapse below.                       nlctimelapse.mp4

    That was a display well worth waiting for. Great pics everyone. I won't spam all my images (I took a few 😄) but this was my favourite, taken just before they started to fade around midnight. I did kee

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    As the daisy charts are 2 days old, and are posted quite late, they arent much use on a day to day basis. i mean, to go viewing we need to stay up late and that takes a bit of preparation (whether to drink or not, lol) .

    Question... for @Arnie Pie ..... the MAARSY radar charts... these appear to be an ongoing and current data set.... so is this a better way of determining whether there are likely to be NLCs or not? i must admit ive not taken much attention to them before. If theres a strong echo on the right, that should indicate the likelyhood of a NLC showing, yes?.. but a blank blue bit would suggest its not worth going out/staying up..

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    building nicely... viewings should start coming in soon, some have been seen in russia..

     

    current_daisy.png

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

    @mushymanrob

    Here`s the web link that i have been using to try and work out that very question....mmmm complicated 

    As for this year Aims images which i have just checked.....Their orbit times seem to have changed

    for the last few year the photos for the images were taken on the late evening of the date shown.....typically between 21.00 - 00.00

    the latest available single orbit images for 20th and 21st are showing a mid morning time

    cips_sci_2_orbit_77182_2021-141_v05.20_r05_alb_prelim.preliminary.thumb.png.9c14afb8bafbb11fd8eef43cca57d1c1.png

    cips_sci_2_orbit_77197_2021-142_v05.20_r05_alb_prelim.preliminary.thumb.png.887d6e75e49ad367096d78b06475580e.png

    changes the calculations on the clockface theory🙃

    i think there will be enough notification via social media and webcam observations tell whether we will get a showing

    Happy Hunting

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 hour ago, Arnie Pie said:

    @mushymanrob

    Here`s the web link that i have been using to try and work out that very question....mmmm complicated 

    As for this year Aims images which i have just checked.....Their orbit times seem to have changed

    for the last few year the photos for the images were taken on the late evening of the date shown.....typically between 21.00 - 00.00

    the latest available single orbit images for 20th and 21st are showing a mid morning time

    cips_sci_2_orbit_77182_2021-141_v05.20_r05_alb_prelim.preliminary.thumb.png.9c14afb8bafbb11fd8eef43cca57d1c1.png

    cips_sci_2_orbit_77197_2021-142_v05.20_r05_alb_prelim.preliminary.thumb.png.887d6e75e49ad367096d78b06475580e.png

    changes the calculations on the clockface theory🙃

    i think there will be enough notification via social media and webcam observations tell whether we will get a showing

    Happy Hunting

    Bugger...ive just posted on TAW about looking at 11 o'clock...lol..

    Thanks 🙂

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    faint NLCs currently over the Czech republic

     

    libinprach.jpg

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)

    I say that's a start to the season for the UK.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    Thanks for that @Jamie M.

    Now it begs the question, which if any of these echoes were they?... im guessing MAARSY will be a few hours "upstream" as the NLCs rotate.

    If we can identify the time lapse then we can predict.

    maarsy_dbs_meso_eta.png

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    Looks like those low latitude clouds at 4 o'clock are what was seen in Scotland on the night of the 26th... but we still need further developments yet

    current_daisy.png

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield
    10 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

    Looks like those low latitude clouds at 4 o'clock are what was seen in Scotland on the night of the 26th... but we still need further developments yet

    current_daisy.png

    There's a nice photo of this sighting on the Noctilucent clouds around the world facebook forum 26/5/21. They were spotted  from Skye.  Would have posted a screen shot of it, not sure if I would be breaching any share/copy rules.  Nice to see the daisy wheel chart. 

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
    Posted (edited)
    35 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

    There's a nice photo of this sighting on the Noctilucent clouds around the world facebook forum 26/5/21. They were spotted  from Skye.  Would have posted a screen shot of it, not sure if I would be breaching any share/copy rules.  Nice to see the daisy wheel chart. 

    image.thumb.png.572850a137231f7e5e133f9565e1f677.png

    DAISY chart from the 26th, calmed down a bit but good to see the good development over the last week or so!

    Edited by Jamie M
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    10 hours ago, Rush2112 said:

    There's a nice photo of this sighting on the Noctilucent clouds around the world facebook forum 26/5/21. They were spotted  from Skye.  Would have posted a screen shot of it, not sure if I would be breaching any share/copy rules.  Nice to see the daisy wheel chart. 

    yes ive seen that..

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    9 hours ago, Jamie M said:

    image.thumb.png.572850a137231f7e5e133f9565e1f677.png

    DAISY chart from the 26th, calmed down a bit but good to see the good development over the last week or so!

    How far away from the centre to those clouds need to be to be seen low on the horizon in the UK? @Arnie Pie / anyone , is there a set distance/latitude?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

    From my experience any NLC`s around the 70 - 75° Latitude would give a chance of a low horizon sighting from my advantage

    These would be present at around 5° altitude on the Horizon.... shining just above the all consuming smut level

    Note; Capella at around 10° altitude

    image.thumb.png.1cca5c44a758395f9dc0918112e38c40.png

     

    Still no change in the orbit timings of Aim satellite ...  UK`s orbit time has changed from late evening to mid morning

    now.thumb.png.f3cd10bebaec647b9060bef946ce6503.png

    Starry starry nights needed🤞

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 hour ago, Arnie Pie said:

    From my experience any NLC`s around the 70 - 75° Latitude would give a chance of a low horizon sighting from my advantage

    These would be present at around 5° altitude on the Horizon.... shining just above the all consuming smut level

    Note; Capella at around 10° altitude

    image.thumb.png.1cca5c44a758395f9dc0918112e38c40.png

     

    Still no change in the orbit timings of Aim satellite ... [b] UK`s orbit time has changed from late evening to mid morning[/b]

    now.thumb.png.f3cd10bebaec647b9060bef946ce6503.png

    Starry starry nights needed🤞

    Sorry, im confused, do you mean the image isnt published now until mid morning, back 12 odd hours? if so then theyll be pretty useless for predictingbecause theyll be 3 days late.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
    Posted (edited)

    Sorry Bob...The times that I am trying to refer too.... are the times that the Aim`s satellite  starts its individual orbit over the UK

    now.thumb.png.ba221f86e1580f31da8c265c25cdd2e8.png

    agreed Bob It was hard enough to predict 2 days out .... 3 days out is total guess work...with all of the variables that take place

    I kind of like that total randomness 

    Social media coverage and webcam watching are the only way to 'estimate' whether they will produce over the UK

    Still....there might be some clear gaps in the cloud tonight🤞

    .....awaiting a chance to livestream and try out a new lens with my DSLR🙂

     

    Edited by Arnie Pie
    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

    just found this 

    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM

    As we are getting more and more members in the group, I thought I’d publish a short info sheet on NLC forecasting and nowcasting. NLC forecasting: Thi

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield

    I remember a tip from @Arnie Pie last season, was to keep an eye on the live web cams in Europe, bearing in mind that anything observed will naturally transit its way to the UK from East to West,  there are no promises, but you know if there is a chance.  Yep, I  agree if the daisy chart is 3 days out it will be difficult to predict, as they shrink and expand randomly.  It's good to see their growth on charts though.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
    Posted (edited)

    Weak NlC`s showing on German webcams atm

    ?media_id=120898778545736
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM

    WELCOME TO NLC AROUND THE WORLD! You have landed in a global group specifically dedicated to the mesmerizing noctilucent clouds (NLC), also known as Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMC) or night-shining...

     

    Edited by Arnie Pie
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    15 hours ago, Arnie Pie said:

    just found this 

    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM

    As we are getting more and more members in the group, I thought I’d publish a short info sheet on NLC forecasting and nowcasting. NLC forecasting: Thi

     

    Yes ive seen that, makes for a pretty depressing read tbh, lol.

    i need predictions though, its hard for me to wait up until dusk in the off chance and i need to inform the people on TAW . i dont want to send them out " just in case" , failing to see them is frustrating and off putting...

    As for the webcams, thats fine, but which ones? lol theres so many and many perhaps arent relevant to us.

    Ive seen pics from last night in Southern England of NLCs .... looks like i missed out on that, electing it was improbable..

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield
    6 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

    Yes ive seen that, makes for a pretty depressing read tbh, lol.

    i need predictions though, its hard for me to wait up until dusk in the off chance and i need to inform the people on TAW . i dont want to send them out " just in case" , failing to see them is frustrating and off putting...

    As for the webcams, thats fine, but which ones? lol theres so many and many perhaps arent relevant to us.

    Ive seen pics from last night in Southern England of NLCs .... looks like i missed out on that, electing it was improbable..

    Earliest sunset in the UK takes place S.E. Kent, but I can not find a single live cam pointing north that could give us a bit of a heads up for possible sightings.  Don't know if any other members can dig a web cam out that may be of use.  The live cams at Lerwick could be monitored at sunset as a precurser for possible pre-dawn sightings for the UK.  It's a case of all night watching if you can, oh, and yelling at the clouds to bog off.  It would be great if AIMS could be in that 48 hour time frame, using @Arnie Pie clockface method of counting back gave a good indication of possible sightings.  

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    Posted (edited)

    OK....... the latest AIM chart has some clouds at around 11 o'clock between 70-75 degrees... so we might get a showing tonight and towards dawn... but im finding nothing on the european webcams, yet

     

    current_daisy.png

    Edited by mushymanrob
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield
    2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

    OK....... the latest AIM chart has some clouds at around 11 o'clock between 70-75 degrees... so we might get a showing tonight and towards dawn... but im finding nothing on the european webcams, yet

     

    current_daisy.png

    I've trawled around the European cams and found nothing.  No reports on NLC facebook.  Lerwick  is shrouded in thick fog.  Lovely clear Northerly views here but can't see anything.  I've also tried to find any web cams that may be on the many oil rig platforms out at sea, no joy.  Good quality clear cams that update the image frequently I tend to use for a quick glance is Flensburg - webcam galore.  Type in ukazy NLC cameras on google, they are Czech images but easy to find.  Virtual astro web site isn't reporting anything.  Not really been much help have I.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    8 hours ago, Rush2112 said:

    I've trawled around the European cams and found nothing.  No reports on NLC facebook.  Lerwick  is shrouded in thick fog.  Lovely clear Northerly views here but can't see anything.  I've also tried to find any web cams that may be on the many oil rig platforms out at sea, no joy.  Good quality clear cams that update the image frequently I tend to use for a quick glance is Flensburg - webcam galore.  Type in ukazy NLC cameras on google, they are Czech images but easy to find.  Virtual astro web site isn't reporting anything.  Not really been much help have I.

    I found nothing on the cams either, but i still went out! lol.. drew a blank but the sky looked like they could appear at any moment... but they didnt. Mind you, its still early for evening sightings. One guy last year on the facebook forum said he never bothers in the evening here in the UK until june..

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...