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June 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield down to 16.6C +2.8C above normal. Rainfall 14.8mm 19.2% of the monthly average.

    Possibly the low point of the month with slight increase possible from now once again before levelling of again.

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    Latest projection for June   The chances of finishing: Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is 🔻to 28.1% (2 days ago was 38.6%) Above average (>15.2C) is 🔺to 71.5% (2 days ago was 56.2%)

    (a) CET forecasts -- the averages and extremes includes all values 1981 to 2020, bold warmest, italic middle third, underlined coolest third. (14, 12, 14 due to ties).  23.0 ... 3rd, 1947, w

    Latest projection for June   The chances of finishing: Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is 🔺to 38.6% (4 days ago was 37.3%) Above average (>15.2C) is 🔺to 56.2% (4 days ago was 45.8%)

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    So we did end up with the warmest opening third since 1982, the warmest first half since 2004 and the warmest first two thirds since 1970.

    Current models would suggest a steady drop though towards an unremarkable figure.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    EWP now around 38 mm (33 to Sunday, +5 est Monday) ... GFS now goes on a rampage over Yorkshire later this month, not sure if it's that consistent with other guidance so large uncertainty on the 40-50 grid average to 30th that gets us to 78-88 mm but I'll take it after writing off anything much over 60 most of the last week or two. ... CET looks rather cool to end, probably will leak a bit and end up in the mid to high 15s. 

    It is exceptionally warm in my part of the world this month (expecting a +4 C anomaly), looking back at other very warm Junes here, I see a general correlation with cool/wet outcomes in Europe. Not totally in that direction though. Also the GFS guidance for early July is currently a mixture of fair to very poor for summer weather. The early June warmth in Britain was also a "contra-indication" for generally sustained summer warmth. Let's hope 2021 bucks all these signals but if I had to bet money, summer in late August and early September. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    So already the GFS has ripped up the plan for a new one, now the heavier rain is reserved for the southern counties of England, and parts of next week look a bit warmer again. That would change my outlooks from yesterday to something like 70 mm total EWP and 16.0 outcome for the CET. Minor differences in terms of contest scoring but major differences in terms of weather forecasts for regions. We can't seem to avoid the impending killer heat wave in store for us here however, forecasts are basically scaring people with numbers equalling all-time highs recorded in this part of the world (and it normally gets quite hot here every summer). Canada's highest temperature (from 1937) was 45 C and British Columbia's highest is 44 C which I believe has been shared by several locations in different years, none of them all that recent. I don't recall a reading over 42 C in western Canada in my fairly extensive time of tracking weather. But I think we may see some very high readings here this weekend, we have a 582 dm thickness in the forecast models. 

    It was just about a week ago that Palm Springs CA hit 50.6 C to equal their all-time record high, and that heat dome sort of fell apart without totally disappearing and now it's apparently going to give a second performance up near us. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield down to 16.5C +2.6C above normal. Rainfall 14.8mm 19.2% of the monthly average.

    Models struggling at the moment with large changes from run to run. FI probably starting around T48.

    Edited by The PIT
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