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June 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield back to 17.3C +4.2C above normal. Rainfall 3.4mm 4.4% of the monthly total.

    Local outlook indicates daytime temperatures returning to normal later in the week although nights will remain above normal.

    Just looking at our records. Warmest June on the present runs looks unlikely although the top ten seems pretty likely. Rainfall 8.1mm from 2006 is the lowest recorded but a top ten could well be on the cards.

    Edited by The PIT
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    Latest projection for June   The chances of finishing: Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is 🔻to 28.1% (2 days ago was 38.6%) Above average (>15.2C) is 🔺to 71.5% (2 days ago was 56.2%)

    Excel -> Jun 21 CET.xlsx PDF (Summary) June 2021 Summary.pdf Monthly May was a well forcasted month with 5 players getting it spot on and 37 within 0.5c.  The 5 correct entrants we

    EWP has reached 37 mm (est 1 mm for yesterday), rest of month estimate from GFS is around 25-30 mm. For a provisional outcome similar to our consensus (which was 63 mm between two forecasts of 61 mm,

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    16 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

    Looks as though the June 13 enigma survived, have not seen any hourly obs above 28 C in southern England today. 

    What may not survive are two weak CET daily mean record highs, today is 20.5 (1818 and 1989) and 14th June is only 19.4 (1814). That is the only sub-20 daily mean record left in June and seems bound to fall soon if not tomorrow. 

    Yes it looks like that anomaly stands, ive not seen any report of 30c being reached.

    Ive seen 28c, but did temps top 28.3c? because that is/was the daily temp record.. so we might have missed the 30c but 28.4c or over would see a new daily temp record.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Latest projection for June

    June14Proj.thumb.jpg.370af18ea89affd7f8f2e46b2b628707.jpg June14Prob.thumb.jpg.6535dd6dd85c1aa7693b93aa1c2e0ba8.jpg

    The chances of finishing:
    Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is 🔻to 8.4% (4 days ago was 18.5%)
    Above average (>15.2C) is 🔺to 91.6% (4 days ago was 81.5%)
    Below average (<14.2C) remains at 0.0% (4 days ago was 0.0%)

    The period of the 10th to the 15th is forecast to average 16.3C, 1.4C above the 91-20 average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Now appears unlikely that 13th or 14th daily records will fall, provisionally just 18.2 yesterday and today looks about the same from a check of hourly temps, the northern half of the CET zone stayed rather cool. If Summer Sun doesn't happen to update the CET today, I'll do it after midnight, it will show 16.6 as the new value to 13th. 

    The EWP will be on the rise apparently, each day the GFS has been showing a slightly different track for heavy rainfall later this week but the same grid average would apply anyway, as this heavy rain (around 70-80 mm) covers a small portion of the grid. Also days 11 to 16 continue to change but sometimes show quite heavy amounts. Making a projection with all this uncertainty seems pointless, we could end up anywhere from 50 to 100+ depending on the details. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    16.6c to the 13th

    2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
    Current low this month 16.1c on the 5th, 8th & 9th

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

    16.6c to the 13th

    2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
    Current low this month 16.1c on the 5th, 8th & 9th

    Already expecting a classic NW-SE divide in monthly mean temp values. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 17.4C +4.2C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 3.4mm 4.4% of the monthly average

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    Just looking at the Sheffield v National experience,,,,,,don't often see the former exceed the latter at all let alone by over a half of a degree centigrade.

    Could kind of sum up this month...... in CET terms it might end up unremarkably in the mid 15c range, but for those of us on the eastern side of the country, particularly further south, it will live long in pleasant memories I suspect

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    16.6c to the 14th

    2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.8c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
    Current low this month 16.1c on the 5th, 8th & 9th

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    3 hours ago, Timmytour said:

    Just looking at the Sheffield v National experience,,,,,,don't often see the former exceed the latter at all let alone by over a half of a degree centigrade.

    Could kind of sum up this month...... in CET terms it might end up unremarkably in the mid 15c range, but for those of us on the eastern side of the country, particularly further south, it will live long in pleasant memories I suspect

    Here in Leeds i'd consider it non-exceptional and likely forgettable albeit it's more difficult to compare it as a warm first half because they have been less common over the past two decades. Certainly 03/05/06/17/18/20 all produced better halves for me.

    Edited by summer blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

    Here in Leeds i'd consider it non-exceptional and likely forgettable albeit it's more difficult to compare it as a warm first half because they have been less common over the past two decades. Certainly 03/05/06/17/18/20 all produced better halves for me.

    You always get someone playing down the good summer months.

    You've made the point yourself here- it's been a very good first half for many. I certainly can't recall many better first halves of June in these parts.

    Statistically there haven't been many at all. Even the classic Junes have tended to be cooler than this month in the first half.

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  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

    You always get someone playing down the good summer months.

    You've made the point yourself here- it's been a very good first half for many. I certainly can't recall many better first halves of June in these parts.

    Statistically there haven't been many at all. Even the classic Junes have tended to be cooler than this month in the first half.

    I'm not trying to play it down. It has not had the sunshine of other halves nor the Maxima (not actually sure we've breached 25C here) but yes, we are judging it against mostly second halves which makes it a little harder to compare. If it does drop below 15.9C then that probably reflects the feel here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    The current EWP is around 10 mm and the ten-day forecast is about 50 mm, with another 10-20 mm potential in days 11-15. That would get us most of the way to 80 mm for the month. 

    Current CET projections would see the average falling slowly after mid-week, to the high 15s possibly by end of the month, although low 16s still quite plausible as the degree of cooling is rather slight overall. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    7 hours ago, Scorcher said:

    You always get someone playing down the good summer months.

    You've made the point yourself here- it's been a very good first half for many. I certainly can't recall many better first halves of June in these parts.

    Statistically there haven't been many at all. Even the classic Junes have tended to be cooler than this month in the first half.

    Yes normally more likely to see a cool first half offset by warmer second half, but this year may well be the other way round given the forecast.

    Last three Junes have featured very warm/hot conditions at some stage second half of June, may be not the case this year.. at least widespread.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield back down to 17.3C +4C above normal. Rainfall unchanged

    It's been a good start however probably will be forgettable for some as there hasn't been any real extremes.  Lowest day temp 20.3C highest 24.6C Coldest night 7.9C warmest 17C .

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    18 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    I'm not trying to play it down. It has not had the sunshine of other halves nor the Maxima (not actually sure we've breached 25C here) but yes, we are judging it against mostly second halves which makes it a little harder to compare. If it does drop below 15.9C then that probably reflects the feel here.

    108 hours of sunshine here for the first half which is comfortably above average around here- I believe the June average for the month is around 173 hours.

    It's certainly quite a bit sunnier than 2007 which has been singled out as another good first half.

    Average max of 22C as well which again is well above average for the first half of the month around here.

    To me consistently warm is more important than high maxima. Our highest here this month is 25.5C which isn't exceptional but almost every day has reached 20C- only 2 days so far haven't managed it. Much better than some past Junes that had short plumes but were mostly cool otherwise- June 2000 is a prime example. 2019 is another.

    Edited by Scorcher
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    16.6c to the 15th

    2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.8c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
    Current low this month 16.1c on the 5th, 8th & 9th

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    16 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

    The current EWP is around 10 mm and the ten-day forecast is about 50 mm, with another 10-20 mm potential in days 11-15. That would get us most of the way to 80 mm for the month. 

    Current CET projections would see the average falling slowly after mid-week, to the high 15s possibly by end of the month, although low 16s still quite plausible as the degree of cooling is rather slight overall. 

    I think there's a good chance CET stays above 16C now as you indicate....although daytime temperatures are set to drop by a view degrees, there's nothing untoward in the night time temperatures sufficient enough to pull the mean down by much. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield back to 17.4C +4.0C above normal. Rainfall up to 5.6mm 7.3% of the monthly average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    23 hours ago, Scorcher said:

    108 hours of sunshine here for the first half which is comfortably above average around here- I believe the June average for the month is around 173 hours.

    It's certainly quite a bit sunnier than 2007 which has been singled out as another good first half.

    Average max of 22C as well which again is well above average for the first half of the month around here.

    To me consistently warm is more important than high maxima. Our highest here this month is 25.5C which isn't exceptional but almost every day has reached 20C- only 2 days so far haven't managed it. Much better than some past Junes that had short plumes but were mostly cool otherwise- June 2000 is a prime example. 2019 is another.

    The consistent warmth and sunshine without persistent humidity is what will make it memorable for me.

    Especially in the year it has taken place......one where I am working from home instead of a  London office and so can nip out in the garden for sessions before 12pm and after 2pm to get a bit of colour on myself!

    Edited by Timmytour
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    16.7c to the 16th

    2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.8c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
    Current low this month 16.1c on the 5th, 8th & 9th

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Looks like the warmest first half since 2004 then. Not sure about opening third which i missed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

    Looks like the warmest first half since 2004 then. Not sure about opening third which i missed.

    The opening third is provisionally 16.4C -- also the warmest since 2004, which was 16.6C. Before that you have to go back to 1982, which was a whopping 18.6C.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    2 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

    The opening third is provisionally 16.4C -- also the warmest since 2004, which was 16.6C. Before that you have to go back to 1982, which was a whopping 18.6C.

    Wow must have been a major cool down second half of June 82.

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

    Wow must have been a major cool down second half of June 82.

    Middle third was 13.7C and the final third was 14.3C.

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