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June 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    A little surprised only a few people have gone for a substantially above average June. The latest ECM ensembles has the first half of June on a par with an average first half of July, or slightly better - uppers starting close to 10C, dropping only for a couple of days to 6C/7C before heading back towards 10C as mid month approaches, and the number of ECM ensembles with temperatures above average far exceed those at average or below. The second half of June is rarely cooler than the first half, so the trend favours an overall well above average month.

    Still, my recent record with April/May means I am in no position to lecture 😉

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    Latest projection for June   The chances of finishing: Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is 🔻to 28.1% (2 days ago was 38.6%) Above average (>15.2C) is 🔺to 71.5% (2 days ago was 56.2%)

    (a) CET forecasts -- the averages and extremes includes all values 1981 to 2020, bold warmest, italic middle third, underlined coolest third. (14, 12, 14 due to ties).  23.0 ... 3rd, 1947, w

    Latest projection for June   The chances of finishing: Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is 🔺to 38.6% (4 days ago was 37.3%) Above average (>15.2C) is 🔺to 56.2% (4 days ago was 45.8%)

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    No blister heatwaves on the horizon yet but we all know they can creep out of the blue at very short notice. And with plenty of dry and warm weather for the forseeable, i'm putting a guess that the warm and dry will extend well into the 2nd half of the month and the cool and wet will just be pushed back into July resulting in  June being 17.5C ,  15mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Reading
  • Location: Reading
    Posted (edited)

    Oops, I'm a bit late! Let's say 15.8C and 46mm.

    Edited by Stargazer
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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted (edited)
    On 01/06/2021 at 07:31, Man Without Beard said:

    A little surprised only a few people have gone for a substantially above average June. The latest ECM ensembles has the first half of June on a par with an average first half of July, or slightly better - uppers starting close to 10C, dropping only for a couple of days to 6C/7C before heading back towards 10C as mid month approaches, and the number of ECM ensembles with temperatures above average far exceed those at average or below. The second half of June is rarely cooler than the first half, so the trend favours an overall well above average month.

    Still, my recent record with April/May means I am in no position to lecture 😉

    Here's a list of Junes with warmer first half CET (running mean on 15th) than second halves. Some went from cool to very cool but I have arranged these by size of decrease. Normally it would be 1.0 to 1.5 warmer in the second half of June than the first half. So even a slight increase is anomalously low, however I only listed actual decreases and equal values both halves. 

    YEAR ________ 1-15 CET ____ 1-30 CET ____ (2nd half avg) ____ decrease

    1997 ______ 15.4 _____ 14.1 _____ 12.7 _______ --2.7

    1835 ______ 16.3 _____ 15.0 _____ 13.7 _______ --2.6

    2004 ______ 16.6 _____ 15.3 _____ 14.0 _______ --2.6

    1813 ______ 14.9 _____ 13.6 _____ 12.4 _______ --2.5

    1927 ______ 15.5 _____ 14.3 _____ 13.1 _______ --2.4

    1933 ______ 16.8 _____ 15.6 _____ 14.4 _______ --2.4

    1963 ______ 16.1 _____ 14.9 _____ 13.7 _______ --2.4

    1980 ______ 14.9 _____ 13.8 _____ 12.6 _______ --2.3

    1982 ______ 16.7 _____ 15.5 _____ 14.4 _______ --2.3 (19.5 mean CET 1-6)

    1925 ______ 16.1 _____ 15.0 _____ 13.9 _______ --2.2

    1940 ______ 17.5 _____ 16.4 _____ 15.3 _______ --2.2

    1842 ______ 16.5 _____ 15.6 _____ 14.7 _______ --1.8

    1858 ______ 17.6 _____ 16.8 _____ 15.9 _______ --1.7

    1922 ______ 14.6 _____ 13.8 _____ 12.9 _______ --1.7

    1937 ______ 14.9 _____ 14.1 _____ 13.3 _______ --1.6

    1966 ______ 16.2 _____ 15.4 _____ 14.6 _______ --1.6

    1822 ______ 17.8 _____ 17.1 _____ 16.4 _______ --1.4

    1970 ______ 17.1 _____ 16.4 _____ 15.7 _______ --1.4

    2007 ______ 15.8 _____ 15.1 _____ 14.4 _______ --1.4

    1775 ______ 17.2 _____ 16.6 _____ 15.9 _______ --1.3

    1806 ______ 15.6 _____ 14.9 _____ 14.3 _______ --1.3

    1981 ______ 13.8 _____ 13.2 _____ 12.5 _______ --1.3

    1869 ______ 13.8 _____ 13.2 _____ 12.6 _______ --1.2

    1918 ______ 13.9 _____ 13.3 _____ 12.7 _______ --1.2

    1939 ______ 14.8 _____ 14.2 _____ 13.6 _______ --1.2

    1950 ______ 16.8 _____ 16.2 _____ 15.6 _______ --1.2

    1795 ______ 13.7 _____ 13.2 _____ 12.6 _______ --1.1

    1812 ______ 13.5 _____ 13.0 _____ 12.5 _______ --1.0

    1825 ______ 14.6 _____ 14.1 _____ 13.6 _______ --1.0

    1907 ______ 12.9 _____ 12.4 _____ 11.9 _______ --1.0

    1915 ______ 14.9 _____ 14.4 _____ 13.9 _______ --1.0

    1784 ______ 14.1 _____ 13.7 _____ 13.2 _______ --0.9

    1885 ______ 14.3 _____ 13.9 _____ 13.4 _______ --0.9

    1978 ______ 14.1 _____ 13.7 _____ 13.2 _______ --0.9

    1840 ______ 14.5 _____ 14.1 _____ 13.7 _______ --0.8

    1846 ______ 18.6 _____ 18.2 _____ 17.8 _______ --0.8 (max CET was 19.2 22nd in this warmest June)

    1896 ______ 16.6 _____ 16.2 _____ 15.8 _______ --0.8

    1917 ______ 15.6 _____ 15.2 _____ 14.8 _______ --0.8

    1833 ______ 15.4 _____ 15.0 _____ 14.6 _______ --0.8

    1859 ______ 15.1 _____ 14.8 _____ 14.4 _______ --0.7

    2016 ______ 15.6 _____ 15.2 _____ 14.9 _______ --0.7

    1818 ______ 16.7 _____ 16.4 _____ 16.1 _______ --0.6

    1911 ______ 14.9 _____ 14.5 _____ 14.2 _______ --0.6

    1791 ______ 14.9 _____ 14.7 _____ 14.4 _______ --0.5

    1931 ______ 14.6 _____ 14.4 _____ 14.1 _______ --0.5

    1779 ______ 14.6 _____ 14.4 _____ 14.2 _______ --0.4

    1823 ______ 12.5 _____ 12.3 _____ 12.1 _______ --0.4

    1833 ______ 14.8 _____ 14.6 _____ 14.4 _______ --0.4

    1845 ______ 14.1 _____ 13.9 _____ 13.7 _______ --0.4

    1900 ______ 14.9 _____ 14.7 _____ 14.5 _______ --0.4

    2006 ______ 16.0 _____ 15.9 _____ 15.7 _______ --0.3

    1855 ______ 13.4 _____ 13.3 _____ 13.2 _______ --0.2

    1862 ______ 12.8 _____ 12.7 _____ 12.6 _______ --0.2

    1883 ______ 14.0 _____ 13.9 _____ 13.8 _______ --0.2

    1958 ______ 14.2 _____ 14.1 _____ 14.0 _______ --0.2

    1867 ______ 14.1 _____ 14.1 _____ 14.0 _______ --0.1

    1819 ______ 13.4 _____ 13.4 _____ 13.4 ________ 0.0

    1839 ______ 14.3 _____ 14.3 _____ 14.3 ________ 0.0

    1892 ______ 13.4 _____ 13.4 _____ 13.4 ________ 0.0

    1951 ______ 14.0 _____ 14.0 _____ 14.0 ________ 0.0

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    It certainly appears from this list that there are very few Junes that start out warmer than 16.0 and end up cooler than 15.5. 

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted (edited)

    1981-2010 Daily CET averages and running CET, with extreme values 1772 to 2020

     

    Date __ CET _ cum CET __ MAX _____ MIN _____________ Running CET extremes

    01 ____ 13.5 __ 13.5 ___ 20.9 (1781) __ 7.7 (1802&1962) __20.9 (1781) __ 7.7 (1802,1962)

    02 ____ 13.8 __ 13.7 ___ 22.3 (1947) __ 7.6 (1991) ________ 21.6 (1947) __ 8.3 (1802)

    03 ____ 13.4 __ 13.6 ___ 23.0 (1947) __ 7.9 (1773) ________ 22.0 (1947) __ 8.5 (1975)

    04 ____ 13.2 __ 13.5 ___ 20.3 (1982) __ 8.0 (1871&1991) __21.2 (1947) __ 8.7 (1975, 1991)

    05 ____ 13.3 __ 13.4 ___ 21.3 (1982) __ 8.2 (1991) ________ 19.6 (1947) __ 8.6 (1991)

    06 ____ 13.7 __ 13.5 ___ 22.5 (1950) __ 8.4 (1909) ________ 19.5 (1982) __ 9.2 (1989, 1991)

    07 ____ 14.0 __ 13.6 ___ 21.6 (1846) __ 8.6 (1814) ________ 19.2 (1982) __ 9.5 (1989, 1991)

    08 ____ 13.9 __ 13.6 ___ 20.4 (1940) __ 8.6 (1881&1914) __19.1 (1982) __ 9.6 (1989)

    09 ____ 14.0 __ 13.6 ___ 20.9 (1970) __ 7.3 (1816) ________ 19.0 (1982) __ 9.9 (1989)

    10 ____ 14.3 __ 13.7 ___ 21.5 (1970) __ 8.2 (1821) ________ 18.6 (1982) _ 10.4 (1814,1916,1989,1991)

    11 ____ 13.6 __ 13.7 ___ 21.0 (1970) __ 8.0 (1777) ________ 18.4 (1830) _ 10.4 (1909, 1991)

    12 ____ 13.9 __ 13.7 ___ 20.8 (2006) __ 8.6 (1841) ________ 18.4 (1846) _ 10.4 (1909)

    13 ____ 14.0 __ 13.7 ___ 20.5 (1818,1989) _ 8.5 (1901) ____18.5 (1846) _ 10.5 (1916)

    14 ____ 14.4 __ 13.8 ___ 19.4 (1814) __ 7.9 (1903) ________ 18.5 (1846) _ 10.5 (1916)

    15 ____ 14.2 __ 13.8 ___ 22.9 (1858) __ 8.1 (1850) ________ 18.6 (1846) _ 10.6 (1916)

    16 ____ 14.8 __ 13.9 ___20.7 (1858,1896) _ 9.6 (1869) ____ 18.7 (1846) _ 10.6 (1916)

    17 ____ 15.0 __ 13.9 ___ 21.4 (1917) __ 9.1 (1928) ________ 18.8 (1846) _ 10.6 (1916)

    18 ____ 14.8 __ 14.0 ___ 21.2 (2005) __ 8.1 (1855) ________ 18.9 (1846) _ 10.7 (1916)

    19 ____ 15.2 __ 14.1 ___ 22.1 (2005) __ 7.3 (1795) ________ 19.0 (1846) _ 10.7 (1916)

    20 ____ 15.1 __ 14.1 ___ 21.7 (1846) __ 9.0 (1795&1964) __ 19.1 (1846) _ 10.7 (1916)

    21 ____ 14.4 __ 14.1 ___ 22.7 (1817) __ 9.8 (1903) ________ 19.1 (1846) _ 10.9 (1916)

    22 ____ 14.6 __ 14.1 ___ 22.3 (1941) __ 9.0 (1823) ________ 19.2 (1846) _ 11.0 (1916)

    23 ____ 14.8 __ 14.2 ___ 21.8 (1935) __ 9.4 (1823) ________ 19.0 (1846) _ 11.2 (1916)

    24 ____ 14.9 __ 14.2 ___ 22.0 (1935) __10.1 (1784)________ 18.8 (1846) _ 11.4 (1916)

    25 ____ 15.3 __ 14.2 ___ 22.6 (2020) __ 8.7 (1835) ________ 18.6 (1846) _ 11.5 (1916)

    26 ____ 15.3 __ 14.3 ___ 22.3 (1976) __ 9.7 (1835) ________ 18.5 (1846) _ 11.5 (1916)

    27 ____ 15.6 __ 14.3 ___ 22.8 (1826) __10.2 (1862)________ 18.4 (1846) _ 11.6 (1916)

    28 ____ 15.6 __ 14.4 ___ 22.6 (1976) __ 9.4 (1812) ________ 18.3 (1846) _ 11.7 (1909,1916)

    29 ____ 16.0 __ 14.4 ___ 22.4 (1976) __ 9.7 (1839) ________ 18.3 (1846) _ 11.7 (1916)

    30 ____ 15.8 __ 14.5 ___ 22.1 (1976) __ 9.1 (1839) ________ 18.2 (1846) _ 11.8 (1909,16,72)*

    _____________________________________________________________________

    * 11.5 before daily data began in 1675, that month may have had other earlier lower values than shown here. 

    ______________________________________________________________________

    Last year there was a run of three very warm days including the new record set on 25th, 24th was 21.6 and 25th was 21.7 C. 

    The coolest day of the month was the 6th (10.5 C). 

    ==================================================================

    1991-2020 CET daily averages, and running CET averages

    01 __ 13.8 __ 13.8 _______ 11 __ 13.9 __ 13.9 _______ 21 __ 14.8 __ 14.3 _______

    02 __ 14.2 __ 14.0 _______ 12 __ 14.0 __ 13.9 _______ 22 __ 14.7 __ 14.3 _______

    03 __ 13.5 __ 13.8 _______ 13 __ 14.2 __ 13.9 _______ 23 __ 15.2 __ 14.4 _______

    04 __ 13.3 __ 13.7 _______ 14 __ 14.5 __ 14.0 _______ 24 __ 15.3 __ 14.4 _______

    05 __ 13.4 __ 13.6 _______ 15 __ 14.4 __ 14.0 _______ 25 __ 15.6 __ 14.4 _______

    06 __ 14.0 __ 13.7 _______ 16 __ 14.8 __ 14.0 _______ 26 __ 15.8 __ 14.5 _______

    07 __ 14.2 __ 13.8 _______ 17 __ 15.2 __ 14.1 _______ 27 __ 16.1 __ 14.6 _______

    08 __ 14.1 __ 13.8 _______ 18 __ 15.1 __ 14.2 _______ 28 __ 15.8 __ 14.6 _______

    09 __ 14.0 __ 13.8 _______ 19 __ 15.4 __ 14.2 _______ 29 __ 16.0 __ 14.6 _______

    10 __ 14.3 __ 13.9 _______ 20 __ 15.2 __ 14.3 _______ 30 __ 16.1 __ 14.7 _______

    =============================================

    note that the 1991-2020 averages preserve a feature of the 1981-2010 CET normals, namely, a dip around the 5th-6th to slightly lower values than the start of the month before any slow increase begins. Another slight falling back occurs around 21st-22nd. 

    The current normals for June are approaching the highest 30-year averages set around 1822-1851 (14.72). June has had its ups and downs throughout the record with several high and low points along the way. After starting around 14.3 (1661-90) the averages fell steadily through the Maunder period and reached a minimum of 13.8 for 1677-1706, again reached for 1687-1716. Then began a slow but accelerating rise to reach 14.6 by 1706-35, a value that (rounded off) remained the usual value for much of the mid-18th century with a few years falling to 14.5. Eventually the average fell as low as 14.3 around 1741-1770, slowly recovering to the next plateau of 14.6 around 1761-90. During the Dalton minimum there was a brief falling back to a low point of 14.1 (1792-1821). Recovery from that was gradual but eventually the highest point of the series was reached, 14.72 (1822-51). 

    The next minimum came around 1859-1888 (14.07). After a slight recovery the same low point was reached again for 1880-1909. There was very little warming after that with an even lower minimum reached around 1900-29 and 1901-30 (both near 13.8). The early decades of the 20th century provided a gradual warming trend with a temporary maximum reached by 1931-60 of 14.57 C. The next dip was moderate, with a minimum of 14.24 the June average for 1952-81 but eventually the average dropped as low as 14.1 for several thirty year intervals, the coldest being 1971-2000 (14.07 C). After that it has been a fairly steady climb to the 14.69 C of the last thirty years. We are back within striking distance of the 1822-51 maximum of 14.72. It could reach that after this year because 2021 will be replacing the cool June (12.1) of 1991 (for 1992-2021), to get to 14.72 only requires this June to reach a CET of 12.8 -- if this June is as warm as 1846, the 1992-2021 average will be 14.89. 

    When you look at the 1846 running means around 22nd (over 19 C) then its monthly value of 18.2 looks easily surpassed, with a similar month that maintained a warm spell to the end, 19.5 to 20.0 is probably feasible for June. I imagine we'll see that sooner or later. (hoping not in 2021 though)

     

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    So if you follow my analysis in the previous post, you'll find that we are almost guaranteed to reach the warmest 30-year running average for June after this year, because we're going to replace the cold June of 1991 (12.1) and even 12.8 will get us to the old peak of 14.72 (currently at 14.69) set way back in 1822-51. It seems likely that the new 1992-2021 "most recent" 30 year average will be 14.8 once we're done this month. It only requires about 14.1 C. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    17.3c to the 1st

    4.5c above the 61 to 90 average
    3.8c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 17.3c on the 1st
    Current low this month 17.3c on the 1st

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    41 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    17.3c to the 1st

    4.5c above the 61 to 90 average
    3.8c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 17.3c on the 1st
    Current low this month 17.3c on the 1st

    If that's how yesterday registered, then comparing with current modelled output, we could still be running above 17C by mid month. If that happened, very unlikely the final CET would end up below 16C. Could be a very high figure this month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    A very warm first half of June looks likely, though still some way short of 1846. We'd have to get a proper plume and high pressure lingering afterwards to get to that kind of level. The current setup looks consistently warm rather then exceptional. A bit similar to 2018.

    I reckon by mid-month however we should be in the early 16s. If we get a serious heatwave we may get close but alternatively we could get a second half like 1997....

    The February just gone sums this year up. On the face of it just an above average month but within that average are cold and warm extremes. We aren't getting much inbetween this year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    First projection for June

    June2Proj.thumb.jpg.a371e8a77e1fdf145716f1131c2d34b4.jpg June2Prob.thumb.jpg.a987fa5506dfe36c46e2c89ba37ba9f8.jpg

    The chances of finishing:
    Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is at 37.3% 
    Above average (>15.2C) is at 45.8% 
    Below average (<14.2C) is at 16.9% 

    The period of the 2nd to the 7th is forecast to average 16.6C, 2.8C above the 91-20 average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    3 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    First projection for June

    June2Proj.thumb.jpg.a371e8a77e1fdf145716f1131c2d34b4.jpg June2Prob.thumb.jpg.a987fa5506dfe36c46e2c89ba37ba9f8.jpg

    The chances of finishing:
    Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is at 37.3% 
    Above average (>15.2C) is at 45.8% 
    Below average (<14.2C) is at 16.9% 

    The period of the 2nd to the 7th is forecast to average 16.6C, 2.8C above the 91-20 average.

    I'm really surprised at that below average percentage.  Would expect to see that fall to less than 3% by the end of this week....

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    It wouldn't fall off that fast because it's based on outcomes from all available data from some set point seven days into the future, which would include years that had very cool weather from that point to end of month, even if you wouldn't subjectively rate them as possible. So it's an index of outcomes that are within the range of previously established outcomes from that set point to end of month. At some point as we saw in May the set point is low or high enough that even the outliers stay out of one of the three categories. 

    EWP meanwhile has started out dry and the projection to 12th is for only 10 mm, maps for 13th to 18th show dry weather then also. Earlier model runs had considerably more to show. Certainly starts to look like a top ten June is in the works, this latest GFS run would have it close to 17 C by 18th. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    I agree RJS that 3% might be excessive, but remember that even after a mild first five days of February when the average Daily CET  (5.4C) was even higher than the monthly CET ended up being (5.1C), the percentage for February to get above 4.9C  was already down to 8%......!!!

     

    image.thumb.png.c1f30f827154ecb0944cc548c127c34d.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    17.7c to the 2nd

    4.8c above the 61 to 90 average
    4.0c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
    Current low this month 17.3c on the 1st

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    17.2c to the 3rd

    4.1c above the 61 to 90 average
    3.6c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
    Current low this month 17.2c on the 3rd

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    Looks like the weather today will put a dampener on the daily CET with maxima struggling in the teens across the south. Shows how features can pop up out of nowhere to surpress temperatures at this time of year. This rain was forecast to clip Kent a day or two ago - now well inland.

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  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    1978 provides us with an example of how a June can go downhill very quickly.  A lovely first four days in which the mean averaged nearly 18.5C turned into a month which, a week later,  gave a rare June day outside of the first ten days in which the daily mean did not exceed 10C. 

     image.thumb.png.0594933213a42bee0c593c0a1b8530ed.pngimage.thumb.png.0b5fe2ef6b1fc4ad33862922b39e9dca.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    2 hours ago, Timmytour said:

    1978 provides us with an example of how a June can go downhill very quickly.  A lovely first four days in which the mean averaged nearly 18.5C turned into a month which, a week later,  gave a rare June day outside of the first ten days in which the daily mean did not exceed 10C. 

     image.thumb.png.0594933213a42bee0c593c0a1b8530ed.pngimage.thumb.png.0b5fe2ef6b1fc4ad33862922b39e9dca.png

    June seems to be one of those months were a weather pattern rarely sticks throughout, even the first half of 1976 wasn't that far from average. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a northerly incursion mid-month but where the CET is heading is a tricky one to guess.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    16.5c to the 4th

    3.3c above the 61 to 90 average
    3.0c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
    Current low this month 16.5c on the 4th

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Latest projection for June

    June6Proj.thumb.jpg.2153338ad277d458c82323dc118c85c5.jpg June6Prob.thumb.jpg.fc23c500052fdef81e0e725a6efc4f85.jpg

    The chances of finishing:
    Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is 🔺to 38.6% (4 days ago was 37.3%)
    Above average (>15.2C) is 🔺to 56.2% (4 days ago was 45.8%)
    Below average (<14.2C) is 🔻 to 5.2% (4 days ago was 16.9%)

    The period of the 6th to the 11th is forecast to average 17.0C, 2.9C above the 91-20 average.

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  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    16.1c to the 5th

    2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
    Current low this month 16.1c on the 5th

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  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    EWP around 6 mm to date, 5 mm to 4th and perhaps 1 mm from a few small outbreaks yesterday. The ten-day GFS projection is about 12-15 mm to reach 20  mm by mid-June. The maps for days 11-16 are considerably more active looking and could add a lot of rain if they verify (40-60 mm potential counting what is projected from 384h). So as that's quite uncertain at this time range, all forecasts are probably in the hunt at this point. 

    Same goes for the CET, the coming week looks quite warm and the current average (already well above normal) could soar into the 17.5-18.0 range. But there appears to be a pattern change looming beyond the 14th, with 13-15 C daily averages indicated. That would drag down 17.5 (after 14 days) to about 16.3 after three weeks. Here again, a lot of forecasts are not invalid yet as that scenario could then go further down or back up. 

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield at 16.9C +4.5C above normal. Rainfall 3.4mm 4.4% of the average rainfall.

    Huge contrast  from last month already and plenty of warm weather on the way by mid month it will be still hugely above average. Might be worth thinking about a record warm month.

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  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Well let's think logically. The record is at 18C so how many second halves have been above that.

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  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    16.2c to the 6th

    2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd
    Current low this month 16.1c on the 5th

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