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Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
    51 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

    It was a bit too hot, but only for a short time. I would gladly take a couple of weeks of 30-35c, after all the cold temps we’ve endured and biting wind. 
     

    Today was as bleak as it could get for early May, cold cloudy and windy and struggling to even reach 13c, felt like 10c in the wind. Really dreadful weather. 

    I would also take 30+ temps with open arms right now after this spring so far. A few plumes here and there with thunderstorms would be splendid this year.

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    I'm buying an air conditioning unit, so it's nailed on to be a washout.

    Most of our recent summers have reserved the best conditions in the first half, deteriorating as the summer wears on with generally poor Augusts, although 2016 saw a reverse in fortunes, so perhaps ti

    So I had a look back to find the closest analogue sets with least total differences in mean temperature over previous 18 months. They seem to cluster in three historical periods, the recent past, the

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    6 minutes ago, Freeze said:

    I would also take 30+ temps with open arms right now after this spring so far. A few plumes here and there with thunderstorms would be splendid this year.

    We will get them eventually. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m

    A repeat of 2018 please!! 

    In all honesty though, 2019 and 2020 were both very reasonable summers in my eyes and I'd happily take a repeat of those as well.

    As a total guess, i think we'll see some more extremes this summer, particularly heat and rainfall from Thunderstorms. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    For those thinking it could not be worse than 07 or 11 it’s worth bearing in mind that the 07-11 and Aug 14 period only produced a -1.5C anomaly for its coolest months.

    June 91, July 88 and Aug 93 are all possible at a 2C anomaly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    50 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

    We will get them eventually. 

    Probably in 2022 at the rate that this year is going. Absolutely awful.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    34 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    For those thinking it could not be worse than 07 or 11 it’s worth bearing in mind that the 07-11 and Aug 14 period only produced a -1.5C anomaly for its coolest months.

    June 91, July 88 and Aug 93 are all possible at a 2C anomaly.

    It's also worth bearing in mind that 1975 & '83 were also cold springs?🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    14 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    It's also worth bearing in mind that 1975 & '83 were also cold springs?🤔

    And 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2013. All had warm or hot spells in summer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    23 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    It's also worth bearing in mind that 1975 & '83 were also cold springs?🤔

    1983 was a mature El Niño so I’d put that one from ones mind. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Posted (edited)
    11 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    1983 was a mature El Niño so I’d put that one from ones mind. 

    And 1975, '76 '95, 2006 and 2018?

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:And 1975, '76 and '95?

    If we look at 18+ July and August’s.

    55 and 75 were mature Niña years.

    76, 06 and 18 were Niña to Niño flip.

    83 and 95 were Niño to Niña flip.

    89 was Niña to neutral.

    94 and 97 was neutral to Niño.

    03 was Nino to Neutral.

    13 was cold-neutral.

    Essentially the somewhere near a Niño camp is 76, 83, 94, 95, 97, 03, 06, 18. The opposite camp is 55, 75, 89, 13.

    Our Niña is dying so we could flip but models suggest neutral or Niña is more likely so that’s likely how the atmosphere will generally behave.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    5 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    If we look at 18+ July and August’s.

    55 and 75 were mature Niña years.

    76, 06 and 18 were Niña to Niño flip.

    83 and 95 were Niño to Niña flip.

    89 was Niña to neutral.

    94 and 97 was neutral to Niño.

    03 was Nino to Neutral.

    13 was cold-neutral.

    Essentially the somewhere near a Niño camp is 76, 83, 94, 95, 97, 03, 06, 18. The opposite camp is 55, 75, 89, 13.

    Our Niña is dying so we could flip but models suggest neutral or Niña is more likely so that’s likely how the atmosphere will generally behave.

    So, what are you predicting, for the summer as a whole -- based on just ENSO?

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    1 hour ago, ChezWeather said:

    A repeat of 2018 please!! 

    In all honesty though, 2019 and 2020 were both very reasonable summers in my eyes and I'd happily take a repeat of those as well.

    As a total guess, i think we'll see some more extremes this summer, particularly heat and rainfall from Thunderstorms. 

    Looking back at some of the best summers of the past i have always found it interesting how they are always paired with another good summer occurring within 3 years.   75/76,  83/84,  95/97  03/06   18/??   So if this is true then another decent summer is due this year.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    Posted (edited)
    31 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    If we look at 18+ July and August’s.

    55 and 75 were mature Niña years.

    76, 06 and 18 were Niña to Niño flip.

    83 and 95 were Niño to Niña flip.

    89 was Niña to neutral.

    94 and 97 was neutral to Niño.

    03 was Nino to Neutral.

    13 was cold-neutral.

    Essentially the somewhere near a Niño camp is 76, 83, 94, 95, 97, 03, 06, 18. The opposite camp is 55, 75, 89, 13.

    Our Niña is dying so we could flip but models suggest neutral or Niña is more likely so that’s likely how the atmosphere will generally behave.

    I'd take a 1989 summer please, April 89 similar to 2021, but the Jan-March 89 period very different to 2021 equivalent, exclusively mild and westerly driven, and May 2021not shaping up to be a May 89 which was a mostly very warm sunny dry month...a June-Aug 89 repeat would be good though, one of the best summers of last 40 years but often not mentioned as it didn't produce extreme heat such as happened in  95, 03, 06 and 18, I'm excluding 90 as the summer started late that year.

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    24 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    So, what are you predicting, for the summer as a whole -- based on just ENSO?

    I couldn’t be specific based on any one factor however I tend to think the chances of a hot month are below their averages and I do believe in lagged atmospheric memory so short periods aside I would assume a Niña pattern.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    Posted (edited)
    7 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    I couldn’t be specific based on any one factor however I tend to think the chances of a hot month are below their averages and I do believe in lagged atmospheric memory so short periods aside I would assume a Niña pattern.

    Would be good to post recent Nina summers. 1955 and 1975 mentioned, 1975 delivered alot of cold northerlies late March and early April akin to recent weeks but the winter preceding was very mild.. 1955 winter was a cold one with a very cold spell in February..

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

    Would be good to post recent Nina summers.

    Applicable to the first half of this year would be (kept weak Niña values to at least April).

    55, 56, 71, 76, 85, 89, 00, 11, 12, 18.

    71, 89, 11 strongest analogues, 89 probably strongest alone on a pure ONI point of view so far.

    55, 76, 89, 18 obviously the hopes in that list.

    56, 85, 00, 11 and 12 obviously to avoid.

    As alluded to 76 and 18 were flipping to Niño.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    14 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    Applicable to the first half of this year would be (kept weak Niña values to at least April).

    55, 56, 71, 76, 85, 89, 00, 11, 12, 18.

    Just taking an average of those years for here (av max, rainfall, sunshine):

    June: 20.8c, 57mm, 200 hours sun

    July: 23.7c, 43mm, 232 hours sun

    August: 22.7c, 50mm, 206 hours sun

    September: 20c, 43mm, 160 hours sun

    Looks like a cool and slightly wet summer but with sunshine near normal.

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    1 hour ago, B87 said:

    Just taking an average of those years for here (av max, rainfall, sunshine):

    June: 20.8c, 57mm, 200 hours sun

    July: 23.7c, 43mm, 232 hours sun

    August: 22.7c, 50mm, 206 hours sun

    September: 20c, 43mm, 160 hours sun

    Looks like a cool and slightly wet summer but with sunshine near normal.

    don't think you could get more average looking at the stats.

    Average for above 4 months  = 21.8c..normal ave = 22.0c..rainfall for the above is 194mm against the ave of 195mm ..sunshine 798hrs against ave of 771hrs

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    Posted (edited)
    15 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

    don't think you could get more average looking at the stats.

    Average for above 4 months  = 21.8c..normal ave = 22.0c..rainfall for the above is 194mm against the ave of 195mm ..sunshine 798hrs against ave of 771hrs

     

    Compared to the 1991-2020 average:

    Av max: 21.8c vs 22.3c

    Rainfall: 194mm vs 196mm

    Sun: 798 hrs vs 786 hrs

    So about 0.5c below average for the 4 months, with near normal precip and sun. Would probably see a few 30c days as well as you'd expect.

    Edited by B87
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    2 hours ago, B87 said:

    Just taking an average of those years for here (av max, rainfall, sunshine):

    June: 20.8c, 57mm, 200 hours sun

    July: 23.7c, 43mm, 232 hours sun

    August: 22.7c, 50mm, 206 hours sun

    September: 20c, 43mm, 160 hours sun

    Looks like a cool and slightly wet summer but with sunshine near normal.

    Looking a little deeper for you i split them into two camps. The camp that saw Q3 Nina values (i.e. it persisted or quickly restrengthened) and the camp that did not..

    Nina - 55, 56, 71, 85, 00, 11

    Not - 76, 89, 12, 18

    Current sub-surface anomolies would suggest we join the not camp albeit i again caution against 76 and 18 which were both Nina to Nino flip years (it would be unlikely to go from a 2 year Nino to a Nina to a Nino again as opposed to neutral). Faux events trying to develop at this time of year are also not abnormal. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    Looking a little deeper for you i split them into two camps. The camp that saw Q3 Nina values (i.e. it persisted or quickly restrengthened) and the camp that did not..

    Nina - 55, 56, 71, 85, 00, 11

    Not - 76, 89, 12, 18

    Current sub-surface anomolies would suggest we join the not camp albeit i again caution against 76 and 18 which were both Nina to Nino flip years (it would be unlikely to go from a 2 year Nino to a Nina to a Nino again as opposed to neutral). Faux events trying to develop at this time of year are also not abnormal. 

    Thanks for all the stats, I'll take a 89 over a 12 summer please!

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    Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

    Yes Spring has been interesting if disappointing with the lack of any real warmth and the models aren't that hopeful to a point either.

    Summer could go either way and there have been years heat has come out of nowhere reading information such as 1975 (hot July and August), 1983 (one of the hottest July's ever and a top 10 August), 1991, 2013 (July and even August to a point) and of course 2018 (even though May was hot) and 2019 (late June onwards).

    It does risk being a disaster and whilst 2011 had a warm spring (I remember April being warm), the summer was a flop save a few warm days. You also had 2007 (had a hot April and the Rhianna summer), 2008 (warm days in May and June was decent but rest vile) and 2012 (horror show but a hot end to May). There's also the cool ones of 1985 and 1986...the latter holds one of the coldest August's ever. 

    Personally I am verging into the summer being a pile of pants camp. It's been a good nine years since a woeful summer and I think 2021 may be the one. I'll probably be wrong but let's see.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    27 minutes ago, NeilN said:

    Yes Spring has been interesting if disappointing with the lack of any real warmth and the models aren't that hopeful to a point either.

    Summer could go either way and there have been years heat has come out of nowhere reading information such as 1975 (hot July and August), 1983 (one of the hottest July's ever and a top 10 August), 1991, 2013 (July and even August to a point) and of course 2018 (even though May was hot) and 2019 (late June onwards).

    It does risk being a disaster and whilst 2011 had a warm spring (I remember April being warm), the summer was a flop save a few warm days. You also had 2007 (had a hot April and the Rhianna summer), 2008 (warm days in May and June was decent but rest vile) and 2012 (horror show but a hot end to May). There's also the cool ones of 1985 and 1986...the latter holds one of the coldest August's ever. 

    Personally I am verging into the summer being a pile of pants camp. It's been a good nine years since a woeful summer and I think 2021 may be the one. I'll probably be wrong but let's see.....

    Interesting observation cold easterly Marches of 96, 01, 06, 13 and 18 were all followed by pretty good or excellent summers for warmth and dryness.. March 21 however was very non description no easterly feed or real cold at all..

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    Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Mellow autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales

    Dear Summer 2021. Please note that I am only using you to get to my true love... Autumn.

    Right... My thoughts and wishes for Summer 2021... Might as well start with the hope/wishcast. 😀

    Personally what I would like to see is an exceptionally thundery summer.
    Although I'm not a lover of heat, I would gladly take non-stop Spanish Plumes, the kind where you struggle to sleep at night for the thunderstorm value... One evening a barbecue, next evening a good ole nocturnal rattler. That on rinse and repeat all summer. ☀️🔥🍔🍗🌩️⛈️
    For me that would make a pretty impressive summer. 👌😊

    What I think will actually happen...
    It goes without say that there are going to be a few warm and sunny days through out all three months. I hold my hands up, I find just non stop sunshine just plain boring... So hopefully with a Spanish Plume or three sprinkled in there. 
    But I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a summer similar to last year, or 2010.

    Ahh well... Only time will tell. 😊
     

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    I think as we stand now, it wouldn’t surprise me if my prediction for June to be the best summer month in 2021 goes down the pan. 
     

    A poor summer overall, with a better August, with lots of sunny warm days and some severe thunderstorms between June and august. 

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