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Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    Posted (edited)

    Any thoughts from @Roger J Smith yet for the coming summer, or have I missed them?

    Edited by Don
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    Time for a reality check. We live in Northern Europe, not the Mediterranean. Manage your expectations; we won’t have 30 degrees and blue skies every day. Even if the weather is great, you’ll be moanin

    Just got home on a friday night, shattered after a long day....home to a bedroom at 13.5c...one very happy chappie!!! Good nights kip here i come! 

    I wonder, given the hopeless inaccuracy of weather forecasts, are forecasters like those chaps on the model thread? They see what they want to see. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    I have not made a long-range forecast yet, Don, just looking at that today and may have one worked out later this week. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    So I had a look back to find the closest analogue sets with least total differences in mean temperature over previous 18 months. They seem to cluster in three historical periods, the recent past, the early 20th century to around the 1930s and the mid-18th century. Some other periods have few or no similar years.

    Looking at tendencies in these closer analogue years, I find quite a scatter of outcomes into their summers. This led me to consider that perhaps blocking patterns resulted in the closer matches, therefore as blocks break down at different rates, outcomes would diverge quickly. 

    This block we have seen off and on for several months now seems to be breaking down a bit faster than in some cases. That would argue for perhaps a wet first half to the summer. The relatively high frequency of one warm month in analogue years would then suggest that if that were to verify, it would more likely be August again. 

    So it's a bit shadowy but would suggest a summer pattern that evolves gradually from near normal temperatures and rather wet, to above normal and rather dry. 

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    Hoping for an improvement. I will be disappointed if we don’t at least have some fine clear hot days between now and late June, which is the best time to enjoy the long summer evenings. July is still useable, but once you move into august, those long sunny evenings are starting to fade. 
     

    At worst though, if we get warm sunny weather between mid July and late august, I will class that as a decent summer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    4 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

    Hoping for an improvement. I will be disappointed if we don’t at least have some fine clear hot days between now and late June, which is the best time to enjoy the long summer evenings. July is still useable, but once you move into august, those long sunny evenings are starting to fade. 
     

    At worst though, if we get warm sunny weather between mid July and late august, I will class that as a decent summer.

    Agree with all that, though I would extend optimal time for dry warm weather to late July, evenings are still very light then. By early August there is a major shift in feel of things though, and a sense summer is fading away despite it often being the warmest core of the season.

    The absolute peach time is late June - can't beat it if accompanied by dry starry skies. By late May though we are nearing maximum light levels, and the late May to late June period is perhaps the most positive period of the year as a whole in feel.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
    On 04/05/2021 at 23:12, damianslaw said:

    Interesting observation cold easterly Marches of 96, 01, 06, 13 and 18 were all followed by pretty good or excellent summers for warmth and dryness.. March 21 however was very non description no easterly feed or real cold at all..

    Going further back you could also add 1969 and 1984 to that list.  It's a link that has held surprisingly consistently over the past half-century.  I haven't yet checked it against earlier years though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Welcome more thoughts on upcoming summer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London

    A repeat of June 1991, July 1980, August 2008, unfortunately.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 minutes ago, B87 said:

    A repeat of June 1991, July 1980, August 2008, unfortunately.

    I see no reason for assuming that, B87. IMO, it'll be just like 2021!👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    I see no reason for assuming that, B87. IMO, it'll be just like 2021!👍

    It's been consistently 2-4c below average since the start of April, and MO going for a cold and wet June. Will normal conditions ever show up?

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    Someone I know said it will be cool until the end of June, with a hot spell during the first half of July, before turning cool and wet again. 
     

    August will start off cool, or even cold, but will turn much warmer by mid month, producing the hottest day of the year reaching 33c. Severe widespread thunderstorms will affect most areas of England and Wales. The last few days of august will be average and sunny. 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,hot,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
    13 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

    Someone I know said it will be cool until the end of June, with a hot spell during the first half of July, before turning cool and wet again. 
     

    August will start off cool, or even cold, but will turn much warmer by mid month, producing the hottest day of the year reaching 33c. Severe widespread thunderstorms will affect most areas of England and Wales. The last few days of august will be average and sunny. 

    Did this person have a horsedrawn caravan and a crystal ball by any chance...🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    10 minutes ago, markyo said:

    Did this person have a horsedrawn caravan and a crystal ball by any chance...🤣

    He’s a alien time traveller.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    I have a feeling the summer won’t be as dire as people making it seem, we’ve been in a protracted cool period for a while now and it’s quite common for a big switch to warm. June will probably start off cool but I’m confident it will warm up to some degree. Question is how prolonged it will be, could be a few days or a few weeks. July and August will probably be mixed, similar to last year. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    7 hours ago, B87 said:

    It's been consistently 2-4c below average since the start of April, and MO going for a cold and wet June. Will normal conditions ever show up?

    Latest Met Office for first half of June at least doesn't say cold and wet, indeed it suggests more settled conditions and warmer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Weather Preferences: In summer, a decent thunderstorm, and hot weather. In winter, snow or gale
  • Location: Basingstoke

    Eurovision results 2021..

    Italy last won in 1990.

    First group to win since 2006.

    First time UK had nil points since 2003.

    All decent summers.  Just saying..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,hot,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
    4 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

    Eurovision results 2021..

    Italy last won in 1990.

    First group to win since 2006.

    First time UK had nil points since 2003.

    All decent summers.  Just saying..

     

    2003 was a killer don't forget.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    I have a good feeling about this summer. It would be very easy to write it off on the basis of this poor May (some have done).

    However once the pattern switches I believe we could be 'stuck' in a warm, dry pattern for a similar length of time that we've been stuck in almost relentless cool setups.

    I expect the modern trend of extreme plumes to continue as well- these have become an annual event over the last few years and have occurred multiple times in several recent summers. I think this may be more after the middle of July- with mid June to mid July being an extended very dry and very warm period without too many extreme temperatures.

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    43 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

    Eurovision results 2021..

    Italy last won in 1990.

    First group to win since 2006.

    First time UK had nil points since 2003.

    All decent summers.  Just saying..

     

    And what a stinker that was last night lol. The U.K. yet again coming last. It wasn’t a surprise, as the U.K. output over the last 10 or so years have been pretty dire. The Europeans also hate us though. 
     

    We make better music after all lol. 

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    33 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    I have a good feeling about this summer. It would be very easy to write it off on the basis of this poor May (some have done).

    However once the pattern switches I believe we could be 'stuck' in a warm, dry pattern for a similar length of time that we've been stuck in almost relentless cool setups.

    I expect the modern trend of extreme plumes to continue as well- these have become an annual event over the last few years and have occurred multiple times in several recent summers. I think this may be more after the middle of July- with mid June to mid July being an extended very dry and very warm period without too many extreme temperatures.

    Don’t be so sure it’s a guarantee. It wouldn’t surprise me if we fail to reach 35c this year and struggle to touch 32c.

    I’ll play devil’s advocate and predict the top temp will be 31c on a few days between mid June and late August.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    1 minute ago, Sunny76 said:

    Don’t be so sure it’s a guarantee. It wouldn’t surprise me if we fail to reach 35c this year and struggle to touch 32c.

    I’ll play devil’s advocate and predict the top temp will be 31c on a few days between mid June and late August.

    It's a prediction not a guarantee. There are no guarantees other than daylight length. However even up here we've been reaching 31C+ reasonably regularly over the past few years so I think the odds on that being the highest temp anywhere are very low in the modern climate.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    On 23/05/2021 at 09:35, Scorcher said:

    I expect the modern trend of extreme plumes to continue as well- these have become an annual event over the last few years and have occurred multiple times in several recent summers. 

    More's the pity!  I know some love them and each to their own, but I personally cannot stand them!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    On 23/05/2021 at 10:10, Sunny76 said:

    Don’t be so sure it’s a guarantee. It wouldn’t surprise me if we fail to reach 35c this year and struggle to touch 32c.

    I’ll play devil’s advocate and predict the top temp will be 31c on a few days between mid June and late August.

    July 2014 averaged 26c here, yet had a top temp of just 30.3c.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: I love a variety
  • Location: West Midlands
    Posted (edited)

    I think June is going to be a fairly mixed month with temperatures around average at best, though there may be a couple of hot days around the end and into the first few days of July.

    Edited by Weather Enthusiast91
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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    On 23/05/2021 at 10:20, Scorcher said:

    . However even up here we've been reaching 31C+ reasonably regularly over the past few years so I think the odds on that being the highest temp anywhere are very low in the modern climate.

    Most of them were  a case of "one swallow doesn't make a summer"

    Another trend up here has been for summer months recording at least 100mm of rainfall, 10 of the last 15 summer months.  

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