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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Boa tarde🙂 Its a synoptically intriguing Spring-time situation with the atmospheric circulation, 'c/o tropical and extra tropical wind-flow cycles, still clearly 'remembering' the patterns of mid

I really wish there was a bemused icon on this thread! I must be seeing something very differently,clear blue skies and around 15c here since Saturday! Its that bad I'm developing a tan!😉 plenty of dr

Hi gang ,charts all favourable for mostly dry weather and increasing warmth. I have been lurking about ,had a bad chest infection but now feeling better. I've not had  Sausage Bap for over 3 weeks, bu

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    This morning's GEFS 00Z temperature ensembles are nae that exciting, either:🤔

    t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

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  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Temps in the south east should reach between 15c and 19c most days next week which will feel nice enough in the sun but still chilly evenings & not quite the heat wave some media are touting ! 

    FB805587-7DA9-4344-BE5F-2F83734A2782.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    It snowed here at the weekend 😀

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well chaps, the 06Z ensembles are better -- but I wouldn't bet my house on them!😁

    t850Buckinghamshire.png    t2mBuckinghamshire.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    13 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Well chaps, the 06Z ensembles are better -- but I wouldn't bet my house on them!😁

    t850Buckinghamshire.png    t2mBuckinghamshire.png

    I suspect cold holds on for the time being then 

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    1 hour ago, Snowfish2 said:

    I suspect cold holds on for the time being then 

    No temps climb back to average through the weekend and into next week, that is pretty  confident now temps should be between 15 and 19 during next week both ECM and GFS show that 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    42 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

    No temps climb back to average through the weekend and into next week, that is pretty  confident now temps should be between 15 and 19 during next week both ECM and GFS show that 

    They don’t ECM 00z was a step backwards this morning wrt next week warming trend.

    53138E8E-2A08-400F-B6FC-3AB78644B8BC.thumb.png.bc90f5db2eab1fb96eb4fc4348ac6321.png

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    Posted
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
    6 hours ago, lassie23 said:

    It snowed here at the weekend 😀

    72 hours of a difference here, Sunday 11th & Wednesday 14th 😲

    93B25C2F-B119-4D58-966D-CB90D23F17B1.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GFS keen to build another ridge to settle over the UK after the first, T192, T240:

    90C51708-7D6C-48A8-AD4E-38DC488B8384.thumb.png.494cd3bdfd3449fdfd1acfc7a2ae09e7.png5CA325F1-BCBE-42D9-8A31-E6B5A9A9C31C.thumb.png.6ec1bebad236ba453035ab38a5238f61.png

    Maybe a result of the above average AAM state we’re in currently, CFS has it falling off after a fortnight or so, but that’s CFS for you:

    43EEE9ED-1684-4143-B516-F5B0AA12496D.thumb.png.16190c0fe111ff3f835578a389bf0284.png

    We will see...good to see some settled high pressure dominated weather get a stronghold on the weather in the UK now, even if at the moment it is a bit cold!

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    Posted (edited)

    Although high pressure dominated ,not the most inspiring 12z gfs if you are looking for warmth. The greens of the 850s never really leave with a colder push again towards the FI latter stages

    image.thumb.png.fd34744d4b07fcacdcfab2b05944d2b0.png

    Some occasional rain as well, particularly around 20th which would be welcome down here.

    image.thumb.png.e4e7e6ec6a97348bc9327558bee88b87.png

    In the sun as now it will feel quite pleasant with maybe mid to high teens in sheltered areas. The warm up act is not doing its job of warming us up for summer....yet......

    Edited by minus10
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM T144, stronger surge of high pressure towards the UK than either the GFS or UKMO:

    ABC0596C-2EE6-4FA6-AC6D-D00645189D67.thumb.gif.983b9478c499bc91ed3f9ca6126da2b4.gif22E50DEC-0036-40B7-AA00-11AB947D8C26.thumb.png.66517d0de7da283da6f38ddff1cf2907.png22BD4951-DBAB-4487-86B6-A753EFF6EA40.thumb.gif.f182d1a8d0c9d445f35aadadfebaed90.gif

    Promising run at this stage.

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    Posted
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
    21 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM T144, stronger surge of high pressure towards the UK than either the GFS or UKMO:

    ABC0596C-2EE6-4FA6-AC6D-D00645189D67.thumb.gif.983b9478c499bc91ed3f9ca6126da2b4.gif22E50DEC-0036-40B7-AA00-11AB947D8C26.thumb.png.66517d0de7da283da6f38ddff1cf2907.png22BD4951-DBAB-4487-86B6-A753EFF6EA40.thumb.gif.f182d1a8d0c9d445f35aadadfebaed90.gif

    Promising run at this stage.

    Good to see yellow colours edging into Ireland and then progressing East...

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    Just now, Northwest NI said:

    Good to see yellow colours edging into Ireland and then progressing East...

    hopefully the GFS is wrong here #teameuros

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

     

    ECM T240:

    F081F7D3-03D9-4C13-81BD-714CA0CCCA38.thumb.gif.d9e2a3496cdd5d21836ba7083e761f3d.gif

    I think there is high confidence in this outcome, if you look at the ECM clusters 0z there is only one, out to T240 you have UK high.  This looks like high confidence in a slow moving pattern, rather than ‘we just don’t know’ which is often the case with just one cluster in the winter.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    The ECM is still not great in my view- we just can't shake off this nagging cold air. It's not going to happen but I'd rather a huge Atlantic storm was being shown heading towards us to just shake up the whole pattern. We're not going to do much better than the mid teens at all if this run comes off.

    The incredibly quiet Atlantic just doesn't help at this time of year- it's hard to get rid of these sorts of patterns when they establish in April. Obviously you can also get lucky as we did last year when a warmer pattern establishes itself.

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    Posted
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
    8 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    The ECM is still not great in my view- we just can't shake off this nagging cold air. It's not going to happen but I'd rather a huge Atlantic storm was being shown heading towards us to just shake up the whole pattern. We're not going to do much better than the mid teens at all if this run comes off.

    The incredibly quiet Atlantic just doesn't help at this time of year- it's hard to get rid of these sorts of patterns when they establish in April. Obviously you can also get lucky as we did last year when a warmer pattern establishes itself.

    Be careful what you wish for. This benign unspectacular weather suits me fine for now. It’s only mid April.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Entering second half of April, when the atlantic traditionally settles into its deep sleep state, stirring slightly through May and awakening in June... 

    Models continue to show a blocked set up, something slightly more unsettled in the north west by the end of the week into next week, before high pressure comes back on the scene and once again moving into a position that probably fails to deliver anything appreciably warm.. 

    Not very exciting!

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