Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Methuselah]

A stonking GFS 00Z, this morning: all's crap that ends crap?

     

   

[mb018538]

Looks like we're going to have to rely on the sun to work its magic. High pressure, but no warm upper air to assist. Mid to high teens at best, but without the threat of torrential downpours that we've seen the last few weeks.

A bit of a dry off is probably most welcome after the very wet May!

[Frosty.]

For sure, the GEFS 0z mean does improve towards the end of May into the start of June, on the face of it, the south would benefit most from it as the high waxes and wanes...as for June 1st...here are some perturbations for your consideration!  

 

[mb018538]

Good to see at day 10 that we finally have a Greenland low & low pressure over the Arctic where it should be! Hopefully things warm up a bit as we head into June.

AAM predicted to hold in a positive phase into the first week of June, so the threat of the unsettled trough dominated weather should be off the table for a little while. 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the day 10 ECM 0z ensemble mean shows a ridge instead of a trough...works for me!!! ...a chance to hopefully dry out and warm up may not be too far away judging by some of the charts I’ve seen so far this morning!    

 

[mb018538]

36 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the day 10 ECM 0z ensemble mean shows a ridge instead of a trough...works for me!!! ...a chance to hopefully dry out and warm up may not be too far away judging by some of the charts I’ve seen so far this morning!    

 

Looks a bit better. We've also finally got an ECM op run that's more representative of the mean, and a warming trend as we end the month of May.

When I say warming, it doesn't mean warm though. Merely a rise from way below average to slightly below average (850 temps average out at around 4-5c in London by the start of June).


 

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks a bit better. We've also finally got an ECM op run that's more representative of the mean, and a warming trend as we end the month of May.

When I say warming, it doesn't mean warm though. Merely a rise from way below average to slightly below average (850 temps average out at around 4-5c in London by the start of June).


 

A good assessment ....as things stand, I would be happy to see any improvement and it does look like we are heading in the right direction next week, I’ve not noticed any downgrade in the mean since yesterday, just variations with the op runs...fingers crossed for a change to summery weather in the not too distant future.  

[johnholmes]

500 mb anomaly charts and comments Thursday 20 May

Thur shows

Ec=slight positional changes in pattern with marked ridging ne of Iceland and main trough ne Canada now leads into the ridge rather than east under trough over uk; this is now a slack area with no contours over the country

Noaa now shows, as yesterday marked ridging just w of uk with area of +ve heights w of Ireland 150 DM compared to 90 DM yesterday.

It does look today as if the unsettled weather may be on its way out in the 6-10 day period. However the positioning of the 500 mb ridge suggests any surface ridge is going to be w/nw of the uk so no marked warming up. It may in fact, for eastern areas, mean continuing lowish day time temperatures? This is based on today's ouyput and how it compares to the last 2-3 days. Ideally the NOAA chart needs to show another 24-48 hours of the same pattern to be sure of the upper flow.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[Howie]

13 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

500 mb anomaly charts and comments Thursday 20 May

Thur shows

Ec=slight positional changes in pattern with marked ridging ne of Iceland and main trough ne Canada now leads into the ridge rather than east under trough over uk; this is now a slack area with no contours over the country

Noaa now shows, as yesterday marked ridging just w of uk with area of +ve heights w of Ireland 150 DM compared to 90 DM yesterday.

It does look today as if the unsettled weather may be on its way out in the 6-10 day period. However the positioning of the 500 mb ridge suggests any surface ridge is going to be w/nw of the uk so no marked warming up. It may in fact, for eastern areas, mean continuing lowish day time temperatures? This is based on today's ouyput and how it compares to the last 2-3 days. Ideally the NOAA chart needs to show another 24-48 hours of the same pattern to be sure of the upper flow.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

Ughhh this is getting ridiculous, just need some warmth now

[Methuselah]

Do I spy some warmth potentially moving around the Azores HP? Not that I care from whichever direction it comes!

     

Edited May 20, 2021 by Ed Stone

[PiscesStar]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Do I spy some warmth potentially moving around the Azores HP? Not that I care from whichever direction it comes!

     

Potentially, yes. But that's ya lot   

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Snowfish2 said:

Potentially, yes. But that's ya lot   

I think you might be right!      

[viking_smb]

I would love it if there was a massive cold front spanning from mid atlantic to west germany (stopping at the wall), plus 2 large troughs 

then they sink southwards to iberia etc to stop the spanish plumes which i hate i.e. massive storms to sort the problem out

[Methuselah]

Every day, it's a getting' closer . . . come what May:       

[eastangliawx]

Big differences suggested on 6z mean between this weekend and next (Wet and windy vs dry and sunny). A much more optimistic picture heading into summer. Best case scenario is for the high to keep pushing east into europe and for a long term pattern to set up

[Methuselah]

As I've been saying since early April, the GEFS temperature ensembles, post Day 6, show some promise:

     

Edited May 20, 2021 by Ed Stone

[mb018538]

What a horrific 12z gfs run. Surely this is an outlier? Manages to sneak a low through to the uk:

[eastangliawx]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

What a horrific 12z gfs run. Surely this is an outlier? Manages to sneak a low through to the uk:

Haven't seen that low on any other model or run from gfs. Almost certainly an outlier, obviously still waiting for mean

Had a quick look at latest GEM to and that shows nothing of that low and is instead

[Howie]

8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

What a horrific 12z gfs run. Surely this is an outlier? Manages to sneak a low through to the uk:

What the hell

[mushymanrob]

8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

What a horrific 12z gfs run. Surely this is an outlier? Manages to sneak a low through to the uk:

For that to be right, every other run plus the anomalies would need to be wrong.

[Frosty.]

As already mentioned, the Gem 12z turns into a GEM ...certainly compared to the dross this week!...and it won’t be long before the Ukmo joins the anticyclonic club...just look at all that high pressure queuing up in the Atlantic waiting to bring that lovely fine weather to our shores..just need to shunt that green snot away to the east next week!!..and no, I haven’t been drinking..yet!   

ps.. I promise to love Canada if the Gem verifies!  

 

Edited May 20, 2021 by Jon Snow

[eastangliawx]

Mean to the rescue

Big difference between op and mean at 168h, Op certainly an outlier 

[mushymanrob]

45 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

For that to be right, every other run plus the anomalies would need to be wrong.

oopsie, my bad... the 00z ECM does actually show that feature..

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean looks the best I’ve seen the mean look so far in the build up to a more settled period spanning late May / early June..?...there’s some very summery perturbations....the first day of the meteorological summer for example could really feel like summer..what perfect timing that would be!...fingers crossed ...I think most of us are fed up with this very sub-standard May by now?...but hang in there, it could soon get a whole lot better!  

 

[mb018538]

Sorry but that 12z ECM run is utter garbage. Not only do we have a pesky upper trough left from the Low over the UK in the first half of the week, another nuisance feature makes its way in from the west. At day 9 we have 2 upper lows visible. Net result is cool air aloft, plenty of cloud, some showers and disappointing temperatures despite pressure being high. Hoping it’s wrong and GEM is more on the money.