Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Guest]

4 hours ago, Snowfish2 said:

A great post... You might be right?! 

The wildly swinging output currently and the massive spread on the ecm and gfs ensembles suggests there’s a tipping point around the 24th. Can the low exit far enough to the north east to allow high pressure to build over North western  Europe or do we get the mid Atlantic/ greeny high linkup. This morning GFS again unfortunately heavily backs the later, Kinda feels like it’s the 70/30 favourite given the 42 day outlook from ECM and the anomalies favour this outcome too. 

[DavidS]

Day 10 to 13 on the GFS 00z brings the winter set up you want, when you don’t want it.

 

[mb018538]

I’m not having that GFS run as anything other than a big outlier. Can’t be right. GEM is a bit better, but still cool and disappointing. Think if this high doesn’t topple in and we get another Greenland high setting up then god knows when it’ll settle down and warm up properly.

[mb018538]

 

Well. It’s not too often you see this much disagreement from the big 4 at just 144 hours out. Probably best to forget about what happens after at the moment...

[bluearmy]

On 14/05/2021 at 07:32, bluearmy said:

Slowly slowly ......for the time being, it looks like it won’t stay as chilly as it has done as we head through week 2. that’s looking like the duff end of the summer envelope so plenty of room for a much better outcome than that .... I’d be thinking about outdoor plans for BH weekend before things get too booked up ......

More than hints that the predicted broad pattern week 2 could end up retrogressed again! 
that keeps us cooler and less settled than it looked ..... can we break out of this ?? 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

What an interesting and unusual year it has been, in a shocking way!

Lets be honest, I had a feeling we would be overdue a poor period, as we’ve had quite a rally of pretty warm summers. SE Europe/Turkey will probably be the place that will be breaking heat records in the foreseeable. The thundery showers have been the only interesting thing of late. 

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

More than hints that the predicted broad pattern week 2 could end up retrogressed again! 
that keeps us cooler and less settled than it looked ..... can we break out of this ?? 

 

Looking like most ensemble members are following this now. I’m getting seriously hacked off. It’s like a never ending bad dream for this damned Atlantic/Greenland high to keep reinvigorating when it looks like it’s going to break down. The building high over the UK is starting to look like a pipe dream, and we’re back at square one. So disappointing.

[Scorcher]

7 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Lets be honest, I had a feeling we would be overdue a poor period, as we’ve had quite a rally of pretty warm summers

Have we? Overall they haven't been brilliant- yes there have been some very hot spells but other than 2018 I don't think the last few could be classed as 'good summers' overall.

And this current pattern cannot be described as normal or expected in any way- this is turning into statistically one of the worst April-May combinations on record.

So I don't think anyone could have expected something quite this bad.

 

 

[Frosty.]

I can’t see much sign of downgrades in the extended GEFS 0z mean?, the trough domination  loosens its grip considerably and gives the Azores high / ridge an opportunity?...plus there’s some nice looking perturbations..I still think the end of May into early June has potential to morph into something more summery!!! ...Baby Steps! 

 

[Weather-history]

10 hours ago, minus10 said:

 

The Schafer looks exasperated....

 

OMG, that is not his hair is it?

[Scorcher]

I think a break is coming for me from model watching now- I don't think I've felt more deflated when checking the models in a morning than I did a few minutes ago.

We've been through some miserable periods in the last 15 years but it's tough to top this.

I fail to see what interest the ECM or GFS would offer anyone this morning. It's like groundhog day with yet more relentlessly cool, boring weather.

See you all in a week or so when hopefully things will have flipped.

.

[Methuselah]

I wish I hadn't looked, now!         

Same sheet, different day:             

Edited May 15, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Djdazzle]

27 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I think a break is coming for me from model watching now- I don't think I've felt more deflated when checking the models in a morning than I did a few minutes ago.

We've been through some miserable periods in the last 15 years but it's tough to top this.

I fail to see what interest the ECM or GFS would offer anyone this morning. It's like groundhog day with yet more relentlessly cool, boring weather.

See you all in a week or so when hopefully things will have flipped.

.

It can’t and won’t go on forever. I have a feeling that it will be a mirror image of last year with a flip at the start of June.

[mb018538]

An equally depressing ECM mean. Might have to follow @Scorcher under a rock at this rate! Miserable useless weather. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

43 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Have we? Overall they haven't been brilliant- yes there have been some very hot spells but other than 2018 I don't think the last few could be classed as 'good summers' overall.

And this current pattern cannot be described as normal or expected in any way- this is turning into statistically one of the worst April-May combinations on record.

So I don't think anyone could have expected something quite this bad.

 

 

The last few years have had some incredible bouts of heat thrown up, each year since 2018 delivering 35c highs, which seldom ever happened before that. So this is a comedown I was expecting, factoring in the transition to La Niña over the year too. I definitely think there is a connection with cooler springs/summers in W Europe and hotter than normal in E/SE Europe during a La Niña phase. 2010 and 11 saw similar phases of weather to this, Boring and cool. 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the ECM 0z ensemble mean, there’s a marked improvement by late May...well at least me and Churchill think so!!!! ..chin up guys, it’s mid May not mid June!!!   

 

[mushymanrob]

Not really any support for an "Arctic Plunge" on here, i guess a very brief blast might happen. This chart suggests cool, but not overly cold. Those FI GFS charts really shouldnt be taken seriously, after all, they have also shown warmth.

 

[Penrith Snow]

Just had a look at the models then read the latest news about Covid, the Indian variant and possible extension of lockdown. Anyone fancy a 2012 type summer combined with a new lockdown and travel ban to warmer weather abroad? If your not depressed now you soon will be  One bit of good news is the ECM isn't as crazy cold as last night, -5c uppers only get as far south as Glasgow so snow should be confined to the Scottish hills but the air is still Arctic sourced and light winds will lead to sharp night frosts, could get a record overnight late May minimum next weekend if this verifies.

 

Edited May 15, 2021 by Penrith Snow

[Scorcher]

28 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

The last few years have had some incredible bouts of heat thrown up, each year since 2018 delivering 35c highs, which seldom ever happened before that. So this is a comedown I was expecting, factoring in the transition to La Niña over the year too. I definitely think there is a connection with cooler springs/summers in W Europe and hotter than normal in E/SE Europe during a La Niña phase. 2010 and 11 saw similar phases of weather to this, Boring and cool. 

Those incredible bouts of heat don't equal great summers by any means though. It's been a trend going way back to at least 2015. Numerous average summers with short, very intense heatwaves. 2015 had one but it was a poor summer overall. The general patterns other than 2018 have not been great at all.

I don't know how this pattern could convince anyone that there won't be another extremely hot spell this summer- it's bizarre to come to that conclusion in mid-May.

I'm expecting us to get at least one of those short extremely hot spells again this year, even if the summer overall may not be great. Much like the previous summers from 2014 onwards.

Edited May 15, 2021 by Scorcher

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Those incredible bouts of heat don't equal great summers by any means though. It's been a trend going way back to at least 2015. Numerous average summers with short, very intense heatwaves. 2015 had one but it was a poor summer overall. The general patterns other than 2018 have not been great at all.

I don't know how this pattern could convince anyone that there won't be another extremely hot spell this summer- it's bizarre to come that conclusion in mid-May.

I'm expecting us to get at least one of those short extremely hot spells again this year, even if the summer overall may not be great. Much like the previous summers from 2014 onwards.

I'm constantly reminded of the horrible Mays of 1975, '83, '96 and, to a lesser extent, 2013, none of which were all that inspiring; 1983 also had thundery showers and temps around 14C, and June wasn't much better, either?

IMO, it's all down to nearly-blind luck, as to where the tPV remnants end up? This year, we have drawn the 'short straw' so far. But, there's plenty of time in which our fortunes can change, as the years above clearly demonstrate...

Come on, models, get your acts together!

Edited May 15, 2021 by Ed Stone

[mb018538]

We’re not in a full La Niña like last summer, so it shouldn’t be as bad on the whole. I’m expecting a more typical summer. Not a scorcher, not a washout. Average with the odd hot spell or two chucked in. 

Part of me is really hoping that as we’ve seen so much northern blocking and -AO in April and May that it just can’t continue through the summer too. Weather doesn’t work on a credit basis, but it would be incredible for 4-5 months of this to persist.

[johnholmes]

Well a few day have passed so time to if there is any prospecr from the anomly charts iof a major change in wave length being predicted? Saturday 15 May

Ec and is shows that a ridge is being developed out of the atlantic towards Greenland, in turn from this ridge much of it runs into the uk above the overall atlantic flow and out into Europe. in the shallow trough and on into a broad shallow trough over much of the med and Europe

Noaa shows a marked trough along with –ve heights (150DM) off Newfoundland and on into the atlantic with a minor ripple along with some slight_ve heights out of the azores then into another trough uk into Europe with a fairly slack flow in this

Overall then little sign yet of any major pattern change. Thus we look to stay with a mostly changeable weather outlook for much of the uk for much of the 6-10 day period. Both of the models source  way west from relatively cold regions, trough seem to be more in evidence than ridges in the required place so on we go looking for summer. The 8-14 noaa even shows some +ve heights west if the uk tending to create a ridge w of and a trough over and e of the uk!

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

Summer seems on hold other than squeezing an odd day here and there for some places

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Summer seems on hold other than squeezing an odd day here and there for some places

It’s still spring for another 2 weeks!?...anyway, there are signs of improvement in the longer term GEFS / ECM 0z mean, charts I’ve posted already...I don’t see what the problem is?..it’s mid May, if it was now mid June I would be concerned but a lot could change between now and the end of May to make the weather landscape look considerably better for the majority waiting for summery conditions!  

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

I think a break is coming for me from model watching now- I don't think I've felt more deflated when checking the models in a morning than I did a few minutes ago.

We've been through some miserable periods in the last 15 years but it's tough to top this.

I fail to see what interest the ECM or GFS would offer anyone this morning. It's like groundhog day with yet more relentlessly cool, boring weather.

See you all in a week or so when hopefully things will have flipped.

.

Feels like a projected winter cold spell going down the pan this morning.

Hoping we see an improvement for the Euros this June lots of warm sun and a beer garden sounds fab.

Let's get the rubbish out of the way now ..

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

It’s still spring for another 2 weeks!?...anyway, there are signs of improvement in the longer term GEFS / ECM 0z mean, charts I’ve posted already...I don’t see what the problem is?..it’s mid May, if it was now mid June I would be concerned but a lot could change between now and the end of May to make the weather landscape look considerably better for the majority waiting for summery conditions!  

The 8-14 NOOA chart goes out to 38 May. It has no signal for any marked change in it supper air pattern. Until they anomalies begin to develop better looking wave lengths and positions of upper troughs and ridges the synoptic charts are rarely closer to the eventual weather within 10-14 days or so. That is the realism of the situation.