Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Model output discussion 9th April onwards


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Just crazy for late May . 

    6C9BE0F6-9059-4860-A2F0-814C3253B225.png

    Be very interesting to see the ecm ens later. I suspect this is out of the envelope, but there many be other less cold options!

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    16 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Just crazy for late May . 

    6C9BE0F6-9059-4860-A2F0-814C3253B225.png

    snowfest for I'd guess just higher ground of the north, don't expect much here

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    Posted (edited)

    Dream charts............for January....

    image.thumb.png.dcd45ae87e86d158433260f445e4ecaa.pngimage.thumb.png.d3e20a390a2c5723d06c3221b0546f25.pngimage.thumb.png.5bb1ff0d8b38e8b8a22e05f99115922d.png

    Just seems this weather pattern is hard wired in at present. Still at least there are some thunderstorms for the storm enthusiasts (including myself). Something has got to change in June..😳

    Edited by minus10
    • Like 8
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GEFS 12Z, GFS operational trawling for tube worms, again: t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

    Any other run but the op, please?🙏

    • Like 7
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.3173865985723fae1fe514ea79071a04.png

    ECM wide of the mark with the extreme cold at day 10, but a huge spectrum of outcomes from pretty mild to cold on the table at the end of the run. One to iron out In the coming days.

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    Posted (edited)

    ECM clusters not looking too bad in the extended.  First the T192-T240 timeframe when we really want cluster 2 to deliver:

    7ED5BDBE-BDA5-47E0-81E3-BB8EBACBCC83.thumb.png.675e4d0a3593fd4ef21d7d5d643cfc21.png

    Beyond this a plethora of options, but most look heading towards some settled aspects for the UK.  Detail here subject to change…but looking better…

    44C477BA-414B-4994-B4DA-86BF37320592.thumb.png.d3023f13a40651cd9b253ab40f172a83.png

     

    Edited by Mike Poole
    • Like 7
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    Can we get snow in June this year? It has been a while since it happened.

    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

    Tom Shaw on tonight's MRF was pretty bullish about an Arctic plunge next weekend, the ECM 850s for the 24th are remarkable, -7c over Cumbria, Christ we have gone a whole winter without it getting that cold.

    TBH I doubt such an extreme outcome but expect a cold weekend anyway with a return of frost, all just 4 weeks from the longest day.

    Andy

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    Can we get snow in June this year? It has been a while since it happened.

    Depends where, I think. 1975 had widespread snow across the country, I’m really not sure that is possible anymore.   Over the highest mountains, I expect it might happen occasionally anyway?

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln
  • Location: Lincoln
    1 hour ago, minus10 said:

    Dream charts............for January....

    image.thumb.png.dcd45ae87e86d158433260f445e4ecaa.pngimage.thumb.png.d3e20a390a2c5723d06c3221b0546f25.pngimage.thumb.png.5bb1ff0d8b38e8b8a22e05f99115922d.png

    Just seems this weather pattern is hard wired in at present. Still at least there are some thunderstorms for the storm enthusiasts (including myself). Something has got to change in June..😳

    If we had those charts in January, could anyone hazard a guess at what the surface conditions would be like? 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
    13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Depends where, I think. 1975 had widespread snow across the country, I’m really not sure that is possible anymore.   Over the highest mountains, I expect it might happen occasionally anyway?

    Never say never, the heaviest October snowfall for over 100 years hit SE England in 2008 ending a long run of mild winters.

    Andy

    • Like 6
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    5 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

    Never say never, the heaviest October snowfall for over 100 years hit SE England in 2008 ending a long run of mild winters.

    Andy

    I remember that well, got more snow that day than the whole of the winter that has just passed

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    19 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

    Tom Shaw on tonight's MRF was pretty bullish about an Arctic plunge next weekend, the ECM 850s for the 24th are remarkable, -7c over Cumbria, Christ we have gone a whole winter without it getting that cold.

    TBH I doubt such an extreme outcome but expect a cold weekend anyway with a return of frost, all just 4 weeks from the longest day.

    Andy

    I  really thought that we had seen the back of Frosts now. It seems the old saying about casting a clout is coming true this year. Lets hope all clouts can be casted in June then.

    Even the bbc is showing the return of artic northerlies for the end of next week..

    20210514_220308.thumb.jpg.b6e5f918a3dda5d8b2957a0b98b436a4.jpg

    The Schafer looks exasperated....

     

    • Like 8
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
    31 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    Can we get snow in June this year? It has been a while since it happened.

    It's certainly possible.... Look at the charts from 1975 and now...PS the world is Cooling ...

    Rrea00219750603.gif

    ecmt850.240-4.png

    • Like 7
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Geronimo!
     

    image.thumb.png.6a38513ba92e1b7874e7163eef30c15d.png

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    19 minutes ago, minus10 said:

    I  really thought that we had seen the back of Frosts now. It seems the old saying about casting a clout is coming true this year. Lets hope all clouts can be casted in June then.

    Even the bbc is showing the return of artic northerlies for the end of next week..

    20210514_220308.thumb.jpg.b6e5f918a3dda5d8b2957a0b98b436a4.jpg

    The Schafer looks exasperated....

     

    I think it's because his hair doesn't match the colour of his beard😂

    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

    Depends where, I think. 1975 had widespread snow across the country, I’m really not sure that is possible anymore.   Over the highest mountains, I expect it might happen occasionally anyway?

    I think anything's possible, even in this warmer world.

    You can bet your bottom dollar, the charts won't look this wintry in six months lol!

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Suffolk
  • Location: Suffolk

    Celestial GFS 18z, more akin to this mornings 0z and stark contrast to both ECM and GFS 12z runs. High pressure stays in control for most of the run ☀️👀

    GFSOPEU18_192_1.png

    GFSOPEU18_216_1 (1).png

    GFSOPEU18_240_1 (2).png

    GFSOPEU18_264_1 (1).png

    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    7 minutes ago, samwx said:

    Celestial GFS 18z, more akin to this mornings 0z and stark contrast to both ECM and GFS 12z runs. High pressure stays in control for most of the run ☀️👀

    The GFS does seems to be toying with warmer solutions, only to drop them on the next run and bring them back later....  All to play for I think.

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    1 hour ago, Don said:

    The GFS does seems to be toying with warmer solutions, only to drop them on the next run and bring them back later....  All to play for I think.

    A great post... You might be right?! 

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
     Share

    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...