Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[minus10]

26 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aris-end of the GFS 12Z. Details are irrelevant, of course, but I'd like nowt more than loads of sunshine and 25C temps. But, it's the demise of the tPV remnants that I'm really liking:

     

Yes Ed it is this HP that comes to our rescue on this Gfs12z run

I know it is FI but shirley at some point one of these warmer options has to come off.....

Today was very pleasant out in the gardens with the exception of the wind which was a pain in the ****. Hopefully that will abate somewhat in the next few days.....

 

[Frosty.]

It’s fair to say it’s a trough dominated outlook ️ ? ⛈  but I’ve noticed, time and time again the longer term GEFS mean showing a gradual weakening of the trough(s)..eventually losing its identity and hints of rising pressure, there has even been a few plume like scenarios for late May...so, I would say, there are signs of light at the end of the tunnel and let’s face it, it’s still spring so we are not eating into the meteorological summer..at least not for another 3 weeks!!! ...

 

[Guest]

Well as the GFS mean gets dragged ever so slightly lower as the 12z Ops run goes on it merry way towards to the end with high pressure building in . A complete outlier again but two runs on the trot, maybe just maybe gfs is sniffing out something more positive, hopefully it’ll be an emerging trend, if it is I may stop moaning
 

[Djdazzle]

7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well as the GFS mean gets dragged ever so slightly lower as the 12z Ops run goes on it merry way towards to the end with high pressure building in . A complete outlier again but two runs on the trot, maybe just maybe gfs is sniffing out something more positive, hopefully it’ll be an emerging trend, if it is I may stop moaning
 

Wouldn’t be the same if you stopped moaning!

Hopefully, tentative signs that a summer-type pattern may establish later this month.

[Frosty.]

Looking. at the end of the GEFS 12z mean, the Azores High / Ridge is certainly trying isn’t it?...let’s hope it tries even harder once we hit summer..hopefully hit the ground running as the azores high will be very important to our chances of a good early summer!..and now, let us pray!  

[NApplewhite]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Aris-end of the GFS 12Z. Details are irrelevant, of course, but I'd like nowt more than loads of sunshine and 25C temps. But, it's the demise of the tPV remnants that I'm really liking:

     

Yes i cant wait for the PV to die! roll on summer! i dont believe this forecast its FL as usual

[stodge]

Evening all

My first look at the model output for a few days. A hint of something more spring-like yesterday but a more disappointing day today. Should be 18c in London in may so we're still operating on thw wrong side of average. 

It doesn't look that brilliant through this week with LP never far away and it's a repeat performance with another LP ambling in off the Atlantic. We often get a spell of warm or hot weather towards the end of May so it's something for which we should be watching even at this stage.

The T+240 charts this evening from some of the models GFS OP, ECM, GEM, JMA and GFS Control

It's not very pretty if you're looking for warmth, let alone heat. JMA has 850s below zero while the others have 0 to +4 850s none of which suggests a warm, let alone hot scenario.

Perhaps the GEM is the most bullish with the push of warmer air from the south - the +8 isotherm is much closer to southern Britain than it is on any of the other models.

So, 7-10 days of average or slightly below average temperatures and, without looking at the 500s, rain or showers never far away. 

Both GFS OP and Control keen to build heights further into FI - Control puts them in the worst place possible for warmth but OP offers some hope albeit for only transitory warmth. 

[mb018538]

38 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Yes i cant wait for the PV to die! roll on summer! i dont believe this forecast its FL as usual

The PV has already died - it waved goodbye a couple of weeks ago!

[Methuselah]

Sheet, if the 12Z control is right, we'll all be moaning!

     

[minus10]

34 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Sheet, if the 12Z control is right, we'll all be moaning!

     

Just shows how much uncertainty there is towards the end of May with the op and control at opposite extremes... 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters 12z in the very distant timeframe retrogressing the trough, which is what we expect to see, but it is taking some time, and probably further twists and turns to come…summer on hold, but not for too long is my reading of it:

Edited May 10, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Sheet, if the 12Z control is right, we'll all be moaning!

     

I can hardly control.. my excitement..just look at that heat building across North Africa!   

Edited May 10, 2021 by Jon Snow

[ANYWEATHER]

The outlook screams...As Elvis Presley sang  we are caught in a trap...Yes the models still show a southern jet stream...Northern Blocking  low level jet stream , never that warm ...But ...strong sunshine, instabilty and wind convergence Yes we are looking  at some potent thunderstorms. ..!

[Don]

31 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I can hardly control.. my excitement..just look at that heat building across North Africa!   

Think I would rather have the control run than that heat marching this way!  

[summer blizzard]

After a wobble this morning where it looked like the low to the west may slow and generate something of interest for summer lovers the Euro tonight is a thing of beauty.. it deepens the low and sends it straight through. A good gale and rain.

[Godber 1]

UKMO has a cold run this morning.

[Kentspur]

9 minutes ago, Godber 1 said:

UKMO has a cold run this morning.

Yep -6 850s crazy for Mid May down here in Kent

[Methuselah]

Nowt to heinous on today's GFS 00Z run:          

[Guest]

Something is definitely afoot! Gfs for the 4 straight run picks out a much warmer solution from around the 20th, the Ops run is and has been in good form generally so feeling a bit more positive despite the mean of the ensembles having not moved as yet. Also gem at 240hrs looked in a much better position to start thinking about high pressure building in from the south west. 
 

[mushymanrob]

Well if this is accurate, theres no change in the next nine days or longer. So those GFS hints of something more settled and warmer currently have no support. The GFS though has picked up on trends earlier than the Anomalies sometimes, but until there is anomaly support (if there ever is) then its not happening imho

 

[mb018538]

41 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Something is definitely afoot! Gfs for the 4 straight run picks out a much warmer solution from around the 20th, the Ops run is and has been in good form generally so feeling a bit more positive despite the mean of the ensembles having not moved as yet. Also gem at 240hrs looked in a much better position to start thinking about high pressure building in from the south west. 
 

Would possibly tie in with MJO potentially moving through the Pacific region as we get towards the last 10 days of May. A week ago it looked as though this may happen around mid month - though this has been delayed and has got rather messy as you can tell from the scatter on the plot below. Hopefully it'll still push on and boot this NW Europe trough into touch.
This would ratchet up AAM into positive territory and should promote more settled weather. The settled weather in April can be seen on this plot as the MJO cycle stalled around phase 7 for a large part of the month, which tied in to the very dry weather here. ECM isn't as keen yet, and although it starts to head over the the Pacific, its in the COD and not with any real amplitude. Needs watching.

[mb018538]

Latest ECMWF 500mb weekly plots show a steadily improving picture - though not fully until the last week of May:

10th-17th


17-24th


24th-31st

Edited May 11, 2021 by mb018538

[Britneyfan]

Looking at the gfs it may be starting a trend there, yet again showing much warmer conditions, still loads to go yet, but still showing it 

[Godber 1]

8 hours ago, Kentspur said:

Yep -6 850s crazy for Mid May down here in Kent

Glad you managed to post that chart as the 850s are completely different now.

[Methuselah]

I think we're approaching that time of year, when no-one knows what's going to happen next . . . IMO, a change is imminent --- but to what?