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Model output discussion 9th April onwards

minus10

By minus10
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
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Posted (edited)

I’m going to keep up my optimistic blah blah... ...anyhoo, the GEFS 0z does show signs of summer here and there!...and remember, whatever the models show, the arctic influence will continue to diminish..to nothing!!!.. as we go further into summer!...fingers  for a decent summer ahead..hopefully with a plume or 3 !  

B2CDBC46-38CC-4BA7-8B34-88C2B7903907.thumb.png.6659fd9527c9267077d406089e00108d.png883F0E69-C407-47C1-8392-C0653301A1D1.thumb.png.04536686aba3f8d43c7d823a45e29d1e.png883F0E69-C407-47C1-8392-C0653301A1D1.thumb.png.04536686aba3f8d43c7d823a45e29d1e.png9280CD67-A7AB-424D-A582-6BFB7236395F.thumb.png.b7be5343dd6fcdc767e5ae8c6771cf88.pngF8F598C5-0458-425D-86C7-FB7299B2B3BE.thumb.png.f3c603b282ccd72c21bbca1d06428939.png9C001091-5A9B-4B91-9DAD-0308D4FB975D.thumb.png.517249cd8ed445cc9e22d8bcd1404860.pngDB06DDED-C4E5-465A-9BD3-CC951A332460.thumb.png.d22c5a48a5817f02ceccedb635badadf.png53DB1CC6-9F6E-461D-8356-6C2D6849F6FD.thumb.png.64a4fc14d2b36227b19007915fd00978.png74F354AC-C81D-46BC-BFA7-C8ADB2DE54E3.thumb.png.e74f4a09f4f3a526e016e337de31a662.png38BEF04F-0B8D-4603-B610-451B69209B1E.thumb.png.ee1510abd774222c929c4793700020c7.png

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
35 minutes ago, Alderc said:

 surface temps struggling with ECM having nothing above 14c for the next 10days after today. 

Thats simply not true.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Thats simply not true.

I concur, there is a balance between being too negative and too positive ..and I think you found it!   

Edited by Jon Snow
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Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Thats simply not true.

Should have said for here. Which is what I meant.  

Edited by Alderc
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
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Posted
3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

For here it is. 

Look at the bigger picture?..we don’t all live in Bournemouth..thank god !  

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Guest

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Look at the bigger picture?..we don’t all live in Bournemouth..thank god !  

Why would I care about where I don’t live especially when the vast majority of warmer air masses come from the south? But again people seem to picking trying to pick the bones out of the comment, when using WX Charts the ECM run produces very little decent weather. If people can find it please show me, I’d love to be educated. 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Why would I care about where I don’t live especially when the vast majority of warmer air masses come from the south? 

Oh my, try living in Shetland?..I think you would be really happy there!! ...anyhoo, enough of this nonsense!..the week ahead looks milder / warmer than recently..by day & night, and the GEFS 0z longer term looks..not cold!   

B412DF64-5195-4EB3-981C-055D6BFF2928.thumb.png.45f5f2e804f835ef95aacd38c4254527.pngE45EE8AF-E977-498B-BBD0-D687D6C400A5.thumb.png.38c838b8bf4e212b5914ae4a86e04654.png1CDEA63E-AD4E-4D51-B20F-1A8716E234FA.png.ec7d28b33fb7036f3ab343a199413d6c.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
1 hour ago, Alderc said:

There’s no sugar coating it ECM is probably poorer than GFS this morning unsettled all the way with low pressure just suck over the UK, surface temps struggling with ECM having nothing above 14c for the next 10days after today. 

The 'joys' of living on the coast, could be worse, say the east coast! Cheer up mate.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
Just now, Britneyfan said:

The outlook looks okay mixed bag and average temps can’t complain 

Good description..mixed bag..perfick!...looking at the 0z / 6z I don’t see a dismal depressing outlook?...summer is coming..everything will be perfect by June 1st..honest guv!!!!! ..think positive..not negative!  

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Should have said for here. Which is what I meant.  

Which is why, I'd imagine, we have Regional IMBY threads?

And, going by the 06Z at T+384 (yes, I know!), two things look obvious: the 552 dam line is inching ever northward; the remnants of the tPV are fast running out of oomf?

h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

That said, never forget early June 1975: winter's last hurrah seldom goes unnoticed!:snowman-emoji:

Edited by Ed Stone
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That said, never forget early June 1975: winter's last hurrah seldom goes unnoticed!:snowman-emoji:

Well said Ed..I’ve looked up 1975 and I noticed it was a scorching summer that followed the early June Buxton snaw..although 1976 was the major scorcher.. ! ..anyway, back to reality, there is some better signals, hints.,signs longer term GEFS 0z / 6z?..for gawd sake there should be.. summer is only 3 weeks away!..as I’ve said, the diminishing returns from the arctic will soon become pathetic..if they even get a chance!  

Edited by Jon Snow
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

This is the Yukkiest it can get in May 

GFSP17EU06_174_2.png

And this is the best it could get in May 2021...hmmm?...now we are getting  into a Willy waving contest? lol...  

232EBBC2-957B-4D00-8377-E485B4412FB0.thumb.png.3349129a69fa1b1a843b68b718aa274a.png272C8570-7112-4BBF-9FD4-E647F197F382.thumb.png.f9b7e1fc498f4d73266d02afe511d502.png.

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

And this is the best it could get in May 2021...hmmm?...now we are getting  into a Willy waving contest? lol...  

232EBBC2-957B-4D00-8377-E485B4412FB0.thumb.png.3349129a69fa1b1a843b68b718aa274a.png272C8570-7112-4BBF-9FD4-E647F197F382.thumb.png.f9b7e1fc498f4d73266d02afe511d502.png.

 

You've noticed, Karl! And, let us nae forget that the weather has, does, can, and will, make eejits out of us all!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

You've noticed, Karl! And, let us nae forget that the weather has, does, can, and will, make eejits out of us all!

Oh indeed Ed..I said that just yesterday, or the day before..whatever! ..anyway, there are clearly better signs longer term..as I’ve been saying for ages as I continue to follow the GEFS 0z / 6z / 12z / 18z...etc etc etc...  ..too be honest Ed I lose track..since I post so much..I’m exhausted ..

Edited by Jon Snow
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Och well, the GEFS 06Z temperature-ensembles could be better. Then again, they could be worse!

t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Author
Posted
15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Och well, the GEFS 06Z temperature-ensembles could be better. Then again, they could be worse!

t850Bedfordshire.png     

No Frosts!! 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
4 minutes ago, minus10 said:

No Frosts!! 

Wow I’m so happy..and I used too be called Frosty!..go figure?.. ..anyway, I think I’ve done the GEFS to death now..let’s all look optimistically to the future?..fat chance lol..  

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

The GFS 12Z at T+240. No wonder that Those Who Cannot Be Named are not seeing much in the way of clear signals::drunk-emoji:

h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Clear consensus between the GFS and Euro from this morning that summer is at least not arriving early this year as we head towards the final third of the month. Relatively wet (and probably dull away from the south east) too.

ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

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viking_smb Community Regular

viking_smb

Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
Posted
3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Clear consensus between the GFS and Euro from this morning that summer is at least not arriving early this year as we head towards the final third of the month. Relatively wet (and probably dull away from the south east) too.

ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

dull and relatively wet will do me fine. 

hate summer thunderstorms

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Howie Rising Star

Howie

Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted
18 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Clear consensus between the GFS and Euro from this morning that summer is at least not arriving early this year as we head towards the final third of the month. Relatively wet (and probably dull away from the south east) too.

ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

Omg....

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

hate summer thunderstorms

I found this little beauty from the GEFS 12z..I love summer thunderstorms / heat / humidity! ❤️ ..fingers crossed  

 

0ED9099E-9FE4-4430-9D5C-7D3704F1E274.png

A7D08814-3DEE-48EA-9512-037EDF215E73.pngD1C729A0-384C-4C11-AD17-997D4E8C8A51.gif.b542427e6e22e39d84969b39b169d702.gif

Edited by Jon Snow
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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted

Even though the outlook is mixed, I’m not remotely worried about summer. At least going forward we are losing that horrid cold airmass that stuck around for weeks.

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