Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Any freak heatwaves to that level will be tricky given SST anomalies will only likely get worse in the coming weeks. 

Weather can be a very ironic thing. The unexpected can quickly arise. I didn’t think we would see the glorious May of 2018 after several feet of snowdrifts less than two months prior, and snow still laying in the ditches and dykes into April! 

[Mike Poole]

10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Any freak heatwaves to that level will be tricky given SST anomalies will only likely get worse in the coming weeks. 

Not sure about that, SSTs are important on the direction of travel, and if it is from the Azores, it is a green light at the moment:

The North Sea can wait as it isn’t a driver.  

[Sunny76]

The heat will get here eventually, even if we get a poor summer. I still think 26c-29c will be achieved before the end of May, with a thunderstorm thrown in the mix, before it turns cooler or even cold and damp for a time into early June. 

[stodge]

Evening all :)

Last evening, we were looking at the coming weekend's LP and speculating as to whether it would zip through, sink south or stall out west with the last option opening the door for a push of warmer air from the south.

It was T+168 last night so let's look at the T+144 charts this evening.

Charts are 12Z GFS OP, ECM, GEM, JMA and UKMO respectively.

GFS still keen to push the LP through quickly and out to the east. GEM has the LP right over the top of the British Isles - both ECM and UKM keep the LP core over Ireland which keeps any push of warm air confined to the far SE. JMA puts more of eastern and southern Britain into the "plume" but I don't see much of a trend of westward correction at this stage.

Looking beyond that, GFS and to an extent JMA seem to want another bout of northern blocking at T+240 while if you want a warm outlook, don't look at Control.

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240, we’re getting there:

We’ve still got little driving the weather - never mind this week - so it is a case of wait until the heat drives it, I think.  

[stodge]

9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240, we’re getting there:

We’ve still got little driving the weather - never mind this week - so it is a case of wait until the heat drives it, I think.  

Have to say neither GFS nor JMA are in the same place.

[minus10]

At least the ECM 12z is not showing the very disturbed pattern the GFS is showing for Wednesday 12th, all be it not brilliant..thankful for small mercies etc

[Mike Poole]

Here’s the ECM clusters T192-T240 from the 12z:

I’m going to make a prediction here, I know some won’t like it!

Cutting through all the variability, I think that by mid May (13th or so) we will have an Azores ridge up to the UK.  What happens then is up for grabs but I see a strong signal for things settling down with some warmth mid-May…we will see…

[ANYWEATHER]

To be honest Ecm is screaming and shouting  and crawling back to Gfs...in the ten day period!  Before then plenty of showers to come northern half of uk sleet snow southern half well perhaps wintry on high ground.....would not be surprised at some snow at low levels even for southern uk this coming week allbeit very temporary. ...

[Frosty.]

The weather in the u k can be cruel can’t it?..just look how close that plume is to the east / southeast on the Gfs 0z operational?, you can almost taste it?.. ..it does become milder for a time further S / SE but Scotland is almost in the freezer!!...well into May!!...what’s going on?...anyway...roll on summer, I don’t know what we’ve done to offend the arctic this spring but it can do one now!...come back in November!  

 

Edited May 4, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Guest]

Same old twoddle from GFS this morning, the Ops run way colder than the most of its ensembles like the 18z, the 12z and every run before hand. Talk about dog with a bone, again the UK under a cold airmass all next week. GEM sneaking towards GFS IMO, UKMO pretty horrid at 144 with the low becoming stuck over the UK. Not sure there’s any good way out from the weekends low pressure. 

[mb018538]

33 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Same old twoddle from GFS this morning, the Ops run way colder than the most of its ensembles like the 18z, the 12z and every run before hand. Talk about dog with a bone, again the UK under a cold airmass all next week. GEM sneaking towards GFS IMO, UKMO pretty horrid at 144 with the low becoming stuck over the UK. Not sure there’s any good way out from the weekends low pressure. 

Looks like we're going to have to wait a while longer. The usual pattern looks like setting up towards mid month:



Any ridging and warmth is way out to the east, while NW Europe and the UK sits parked under a trough. Hopefully after mid month we start to see things better for the UK. Looks pretty unsettled until then though, and not particularly warm either:

[Frosty.]

As I mentioned earlier, I’m really not interested in diminishing returns from the arctic in MAY!!...it’s time for radical changes and the GEFS 0z does show signs of warmer times in the not too distant future!!...fingers crossed for (25-27c) before June!!!!!!  

[Methuselah]

Och well, another day on which the GFS operational run dredges the depths of the 00Z GEFS temperature ensembles:

     

[Guest]

ECM isn't quite as bad as GFS but at T240hrs but with a slightly westerly displaced Azores high and a big block over western Russia there's only one place for Low Pressure to end up. 

 

[Purga]

GEFS showing quite a few snow spikes for Aberdeen.

And even a couple for London this week!

We may not 'like' it but the weather is certainly interesting

[Frosty.]

29 minutes ago, Purga said:

We may not 'like' it but the weather is certainly interesting

Nah, it’s purgatory  

Fingers crossed for some warmth soon...ooh frosty you traitor to the cold crew!  

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Nah, it’s purgatory  

Fingers crossed for some warmth soon...ooh frosty you traitor to the cold crew!  

Reminds me of the day I made my most egregious voting error (3/5/1979): snow on-and-off all day and bloody freezing! It was the cold what done it?

[Methuselah]

I didn't expect to be saying this, in May; but, some folks might wake up to a dusting of snaw, tomorrow morning!

     

[Purga]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

Nah, it’s purgatory  

 

Oi - who are you calling a Tory!

[mb018538]

ECM mean anomalies holding a little hope as we go further into May:


3rd-10th May                                          10th-17th May                                       17th-24th May


Our old summer friend the Azores high showing its hand in a couple of weeks time? Let's hope so!

Edited May 4, 2021 by mb018538

[lassie23]

We don't have to wait long for flaming Juneor will still be flaming cold?

[Guest]

Was going to say the GFS 06Z was lass bad, but I looked at the nearest grid point for max temps and nothing gets above 13C right through to the end of the run on the 20th May. Inland there's a few days that approach average but its but cold and wet. 

[milomolly123]

as the world warms up we will start getting more hot air in the uk id give it till around may 20 to june 1st before we get any real heat thats my look on it 

[Britneyfan]

6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Was going to say the GFS 06Z was lass bad, but I looked at the nearest grid point for max temps and nothing gets above 13C right through to the end of the run on the 20th May. Inland there's a few days that approach average but its but cold and wet. 

You are fixated by the gfs lol those temps can be inaccurate for example it only had 5 or 6 modelled Thursday but now I’m forecast 12 by both bbc and met office and both are forecasting mid to high teens for the weekend,