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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
    2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

    Morning all,

    I’m not going to beat about the bush, the Gfs 0z operational is painting a cool outlook, indeed, sometimes very unseasonably cool and then occasionally closer to average..BUT..what interests me is the increasing chances for welcome worthwhile rain!!! 🌧 🌈 ☔️ which, following a generally bone / tinder-dry fire 🔥 hazard April would be quite a relief I’m sure..Mother Nature always finds a way of balancing things out..assuming the Gfs is right of course??? 😯 !!!... 👍 😉  

    Let's hope this inevitable balancing won't happen after June. I have a bad feeling that we're heading to a wet Westerly based summer. It's cloudy and cold today here, I don't know how the last 3-4 days METO gives highs of 18c for my area including today. Unless you're constantly moving to direct sun exposure spots, temp never got higher than 11-12c. Do they provide these highs for psychological reasons? Because by meteorology terms it doesn't make any sense. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    53 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Come on Spring..give us a break ! 😩

    588B6D6F-9705-4C47-8AD9-E849243DAFDE.png

    941935DE-E74B-4652-AD64-DC6A08B36D05.png

    Indeed Tim. Out to T+354 and still no sign of a decent chart!

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png  😱

    And where's @MATTWOLVES, our resident never-say-die coldie, got to?!😁

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    2 hours ago, Empire Of Snow said:

    Let's hope this inevitable balancing won't happen after June. I have a bad feeling that we're heading to a wet Westerly based summer. It's cloudy and cold today here, I don't know how the last 3-4 days METO gives highs of 18c for my area including today. Unless you're constantly moving to direct sun exposure spots, temp never got higher than 11-12c. Do they provide these highs for psychological reasons? Because by meteorology terms it doesn't make any sense. 

    Yup I've very worried about that balancing act, if ever a good summer was needed its this time round but omens are poor. 

    Talking of poor the GFS 06Z is spouting utter garbage, at least we've had some sun so far this month, looks like any temps above 13C will be at a premium beyond early next week until well into May. Daytime maxes of 6-8C further look likely at times and not just the odd day. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 minute ago, Alderc said:

    Yup I've very worried about that balancing act, if ever a good summer was needed its this time round but omens are poor. 

    Talking of poor the GFS 06Z is spouting utter garbage, at least we've had some sun so far this month, looks like any temps above 13C will be at a premium beyond early next week until well into May. Daytime maxes of 6-8C further look likely at times and not just the odd day. 

    What 'omens'? The Mays of 1975, '83, '95 and 2013 were all rather grotty; but the following summers were all okay?🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    34 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Indeed Tim. Out to T+354 and still no sign of a decent chart!

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png  😱

    And where's @MATTWOLVES, our resident never-say-die coldie, got to?!😁

    Don't worry I'm here!! He will be delighted as am I... 😂 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Hopefully this from the Gfs 12z operational will put at least a little dent in the very dry April!!!!!!!!! 😉....although on this run, early May, for the most part looks rather dry?....anyhoo...it’s only one run...fingers 🤞 we see some appreciable rainfall totals that do more than dampen the dust!!!! 😉 ...sadly, despite whatever rain we get, it looks like a pathetically cool spell on the way...hoping for a plume in May, June, July & August!!!..gotta remain hopeful! 😉 🥵 

    E7593193-87DE-467A-8043-62759A4BA03E.thumb.png.09cda55c1c09cc89f3f416260910ae9f.pngD7A3224D-CA7E-46D0-9634-77276ABFA89D.thumb.png.672ad25678eea0905d524803904a37e4.pngE898E59C-127A-4A89-BDF8-EB1FF9724150.thumb.png.3ebd8f097dac07c0b9cffdd41a3c1294.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but despise Winter
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
    5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Hopefully this from the Gfs 12z operational will put at least a little dent in the very dry April!!!!!!!!! 😉....although on this run, early May, for the most part looks rather dry?....anyhoo...it’s only one run...fingers 🤞 we see some appreciable rainfall totals that do more than dampen the dust!!!! 😉 

    E7593193-87DE-467A-8043-62759A4BA03E.thumb.png.09cda55c1c09cc89f3f416260910ae9f.pngD7A3224D-CA7E-46D0-9634-77276ABFA89D.thumb.png.672ad25678eea0905d524803904a37e4.pngE898E59C-127A-4A89-BDF8-EB1FF9724150.thumb.png.3ebd8f097dac07c0b9cffdd41a3c1294.png

    The far southeast of those runs look bad still 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The longer term GEFS 12z mean offers slight encouragement that we may be about to exit the long cool tunnel we are about to enter 🤔.....but, it’s far from certain as there are some chilly 🥶 members well into early May...anyway..I don’t care so much about the temperatures, I want to see some relief to the drought conditions!!!...and at least some of us may see some weclome 🤔 rain ☔🌈 during the next few weeks!..longer term I will be keeping an 👁 on heights and warm air to the south ....and now..I’m outta here!!!..it’s so quiet and I simply can’t stand the excitement any longer 😴 💤 ..I 💭 dream that one day this will become a hot 🥵 topic again!!!!!  .. 😉 

    D2A4CF46-4A2B-407E-92C6-16ABB170467F.thumb.png.91842ab02ede6813f3762f102ec2d63a.png91031491-EE72-4F97-BA3B-5326819A5BCB.thumb.png.010622d50d93f9c0c06ff95443818bc9.pngE19523CA-DDC6-40FB-90D4-9879F47BC6CF.thumb.png.eb2805d408d16001969f2898be4698b6.png6A8C23A9-56D0-448B-8612-B0323451ACE3.thumb.png.848d0a182f8c423c5bc4f6c671edc43c.png

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GEFS 12Z temperature ensembles are nowt to write home about. That said, there is a notable loss of coherence, post May 3. May the 4th be with you?👍

    t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands, 161m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All the Interesting stuff
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands, 161m ASL

    Come on ECM this is more like it!

     

    image.thumb.png.5cce65cc1a4091aecc4f0ed0d17f51de.png

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    The T+240 charts (for a change) from ECM, GEM, JMA, GFS OP this evening:

    image.thumb.png.9de88a31c954cb01565b708cfa307a58.pngimage.thumb.png.126c07e599a1ffd603fda4270216f280.pngimage.thumb.png.46b33de18e783a9b56ed55940555198a.pngimage.thumb.png.84ea76aa9aa5c4aee745016922f45638.png

    A clear divide between those eager to maintain strong heights over Greenland and those in which there's enough Atlantic energy to "breakthrough" the ridge south east from Greenland and establish a more traditional W'ly pattern.

    It's fascinating to see GFS OP which was strongly supportive of breaking down Greenland heights earlier in the week, now keen to maintain them well into next month. It's supported by GEM to some degree whereas ECM and especially JMA bring the Atlantic back into play which also inflates the Azores HP and pushes it NE towards western Europe.

    Next week, though, looks cool, if not cold and cloudier under a NE'ly originating over northern Scandinavia so a "warm spring" very much on hold and April rounding off as a remarkable month in terms of lack of rainfall.

    Will we "pay" for this down the line? I've no idea - heights to the north and west usually mean LP to the south and east and in spring that can mean a lot of rain (and snow) for Europe which can periodically pulse northwards toward southern Britain. GEM offers a flavour of that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Talk of nothing patterns, here’s the ECM mean T240:

    1568D4F1-8310-42B6-87A5-3F07115E75FA.thumb.png.05d18a202edf4989d9246fe208f4c814.png

    We walk in a wilderness of weather...

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    ECM this morning should come with a health warning this morning....🤮

    ECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.29df304adadaeb1893550c4ad50465fb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    This morning's GEFS ensembles still look a tad messy; a twenty-degree variance in T850s looks interesting? More importantly the chances of some usable rainfall are still looking good:🤔

    t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

    prmslBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

    This morning's GEFS ensembles still look a tad messy; a twenty-degree variance in T850s looks interesting? More importantly the chances of some usable rainfall are still looking good:🤔

    t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

    prmslBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

    I think the rain gauges would get a good workout if this was to verify  General...

    image.thumb.png.fa374a82707b926984e03655cba72033.png

    It does look as if things will turn more interesting though at the turn of the month. Relief for gardeners and growers perhaps.....

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Jet Stream forecast looks good but still quite far out and far from Perfect. 

    hgt300.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    1 hour ago, Alderc said:

    ECM this morning should come with a health warning this morning....🤮

    ECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.29df304adadaeb1893550c4ad50465fb.png

    It’s like Winter just doesn’t want to let go lol (although it has been quite pleasant here the last few or so days. I imagine this cool(ish) pattern has to break at some point). A nice chart above for that season, although if that Northerly had any chance of ever verifying, some Northern and North-Eastern UK snow shields could be put at risk with blizzards possible over high ground.

    Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Models showing a very slow gradual trend towards something somewhat more unsettled, compared to last 2-3 weeks, though anything especially unsettled remains beyond the reliable timeframe.

    In the short term - we lose the anticyclonic conditions and draw in a slack chilly northerly / north easterly airflow with heights moving to the NW and blocking the atlantic. Chance of some light rain in northern parts of Tuesday, and later in the week some places may see a few showers brought in on the cold NE wind. Temperature wise - oh dear, very poor for late April. Some places struggling to hit double digits underneath the cloud, not very springlike. Always the continued threat of frost at night, as we maintain cold uppers for the time of year.

    As we move into May, signs we may exchange the northerly flow, for either a cyclonic trough dominated pattern as suggested by ECM, this would bring appreciable rain and unfortunately further disappointing temperatures, or we may see more of a westerly flow, with heights possibly trying to build in from the SW, but at the same time residual heights to the NW may put pay to that and instead we see a more zonal flow on a southerly track - meaning rain and again rather cool temps for May.

    In overview, not a great picture if you are after any notable warmth, and in the short term at least if you are after rain and no more frosts, but longer term, some may be feeling happier if rain is what you are after.. personally I can take 2-3 weeks of rain and cool weather if it is exchanged for a much warmer sunnier drier second half to May.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    OMG I love rain ☔️ 🌧 🌈...give me more rain already!...and the Gfs 6z does..in spades!..albeit mostly in the form of showers..but what the hell...anything is better than a drought innit? 🤔 😉 

    92CA5C3A-BABD-445E-B15A-6F0247B3D82E.thumb.png.26123579831ce24d4a8bca6e3cab1677.pngA9A7E5D5-48A0-4654-A488-03D38EEC88F6.thumb.png.f93c43d359dea36efd2de30e2c71f2cd.pngB2A3214D-C9CA-4CF9-894A-605B8B096907.thumb.png.e29e236535235c12542116ca3e0358ec.pngFBB5CA65-7B78-4518-85AF-FFF4CDE0BF41.thumb.png.4b73ebbbc0100a0224b2ec0e1715af1e.pngF8CAC484-780B-4A82-A64F-E8DBFAF2A963.thumb.png.b10508b1d953a566017921ab8375fd96.png00B8AFDE-8A8D-47AB-9283-FD1C901EDC65.thumb.png.f0fbf59f1f988f78f01213ef66c3a83a.png3A15E630-B553-4C46-A502-66A9CFF5F8F7.thumb.jpeg.dcbbfd78d1c0bcf63af185ed3e0d6a39.jpeg

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