Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Mike Poole]

I know I’m late to the party today after the ️ And haven’t read anyone else’s analysis.  

GEM T240:

More positive…GFS 12z and 18z at similar times:

All heading in the right direction, i think, and the ECM T240:

Lands the jackpot.  

Clusters at T192 to T240:

I’m going with either of them to be honest, behold summer and England in the Euro 2020 final, what s not to like…

 

[Frosty.]

There’s clearly an improvement in the GEFS 0z mean, and not too far ahead either!...I continue to believe July will bring a spell of glorious summery weather in the not too distant future!...ps..GREAT result for football ️ last night!  

 

[mb018538]

Thursday model review:

GEM has high pressure building in through Thursday:


GFS similar, though it doesn't hold on for long:


UKMO day 7 also has the high building in during Thursday:



We're slowly getting there...

[mb018538]

It's coming home, It's coming home, It's coming.....high pressure's coming home

[Methuselah]

To my untrained eye, this morning's GEFS 00Z ensembles imply a continuation of never totally settled weather:

    

    

Though I think we could all do with a tad more sunshine?

[Guest]

Unfortunately the modelling seems to have gone downhill quite a bit for the weekend and especially Sunday! Could be the biggest outdoors party In history so need some sun! 

[Frosty.]

The ECM 0z operational certainly improves by the second half?...or extra time.. ...like the footy last night! ️  

[bluearmy]

12 hours ago, bluearmy said:

 

days 8-9, still a large cluster carrying the upper trough into the south of the U.K. ………still much to play for to break out of the pattern ……….

Updated clusters dropped to one - which is usually fairly uninformative ….. note it is upper troughy below high heights across and to our north …….which removes some of the optimism somewhat ……still too early to call a step change mid month …..although I’d still be expecting a more summery version of the pattern we’ve been in at worst. 

[Singularity]

An improvement from GFS tropically speaking, as the big westerly wind anomaly (deep red shading) progresses eastward a little more compared to yesterday's update.

I sense what goes on there is what decides whether the Azores High heads for northwest Europe generally, or the northern reaches i.e. northern half of the UK.

Even the latter outcome really ought to place the upper trough further south than we've been seeing of late, though. It's actually been really bizarre to see it staying so far north so often in the past few weeks while under a broadly positive NAO, positive AO setup - not something you'd ever predict in the longer range due to an inherently very low probability.

[jules216]

My summer analogs vs summer so far,not doing half bad

[Britneyfan]

Personally hoping Italy for the win, but liking the look of the models, think there will be further changes but seems like high pressure will have a better influence later next week 

[Methuselah]

Well then, I have seen far worse than today's GFS 06Z:

    

    

    

Edited July 8, 2021 by Mapantz

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Looks like GFS is delaying the High pressure and trying to bring yet another trough right over us resulting in yet again being stuck anchored between two high pressures for the umpteenth time this summer. Has there ever been such a repeating and persistant trough pattern like this one before? 

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Looks like GFS is delaying the High pressure and trying to bring yet another trough right over us resulting in yet again being stuck anchored between two high pressures for the umpteenth time this summer. Has there ever been such a repeating and persistant trough pattern like this one before? 

Yes it has a couple of decent days on the 17/18th before another trough moves in, but then again looking back 8-10days we should have been into a decent spell by now…..It’s almost not worth flagging up any potentially settled spell until it’s gets inside 4-5days. 

[Frosty.]

I may be struggling to keep up with current events.. ...but the longer term ECM 0z ensemble mean looks preety summery too me!?...I still say mid July is a pivotal.. ...period?...I’ve been banging on about mid July being the important period for a marked change to summery weather since late June! ...anyway, that’s my opinion!  

I feel back of the net is quite appropriate.. ..given the main sport headline. ️  

Edited July 8, 2021 by Jon Snow

[northwestsnow]

Ukmo 144

At last HP coming into the reliable timefrane ( he says,as its 21 and sunny outside currently).

 

[ChannelThunder]

HP on the 12z Goofus, too. I think we've turned a corner over the last day or two and are now in with a good shot of a dry spell (for all I mean - I know it has been dry further north all summer) later next week 

[NUT]

Might seem strange but always seems to be after the open golf championship there's always usually some sort of hot spell and looking at this latest GFS run looks no different this year (long way out of course at the moment) but who knows

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Way hey lads...I think the whole shaboo  is coming home...everything but the kitchen sink..positive signs at last...I will now leave you all in peace so you can recover from your hangovers

Edited July 8, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

The ECM 12z operational eventually turns into a peach!!!... ? 

 

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The ECM 12z operational eventually turns into a peach!!!... ? 

 

Or, as Inspector Cleuseux (sp?) might have said; 'Non, it is a plume'! I'll get my coat!

Edited July 8, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

Tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean turns into a peach too!! ?  

 

[Jezzer]

Great to see 

 

[Mike Poole]

Yes, it seems it is all resolved now.  I picked July 15th St Swithins day as the turning point a few days ago.  It seems the models are swinging in to line big time now.  Not quite consensus, GEM looked a bit weird, but the most likely outcome is for a period of settled hot weather starting in a weeks time and lasting for at least 2 weeks.  UKMO were bullish about exactly that in a Times article today, so if the experts are on board, that’s good enough for me.  This has been signalled for a while, now it looks like it is finally here.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

41 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, it seems it is all resolved now.  I picked July 15th St Swithins day as the turning point a few days ago.  It seems the models are swinging in to line big time now.  Not quite consensus, GEM looked a bit weird, but the most likely outcome is for a period of settled hot weather starting in a weeks time and lasting for at least 2 weeks.  UKMO were bullish about exactly that in a Times article today, so if the experts are on board, that’s good enough for me.  This has been signalled for a while, now it looks like it is finally here.  

Yes Mike a few of us have kept the faith when things looked grim..but for sure a pattern change is now looking like a very good bet...tonight ECM ensembles point to the build in pressure with temps following suit....happier times await.....perhaps we will have a very good reason for a cheeky little drink before much longer...