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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    From memory, yesterday’s Ukmo 12h ended pretty similar to this?? 🤔 !..trend hopefully 🤞 ?.. 😯 🥵...anyway, the Gfs 12z op precipitation charts etc for Thursday show some large rainfall totals and even though cape looks meh, there is still a risk of embedded storms being imported from the scorching near continent...nice to know that even though Brexit is done, the Europeans still throw a few storms our way! 😉

    EFD5D783-7B7D-4F21-9E42-03C78734F710.thumb.png.cff38c66b2e512be28822516d6195b21.pngAA34C430-D7B3-4121-B35E-BB87159CD17E.thumb.png.3a5e20923fa9464edc9c9efaa36134c3.pngADAA0B7A-6E6D-472A-9F82-543AF1E7273F.thumb.gif.8667f1f0fca96d042ad7ad1343e0c20c.gif2F511BED-C16F-45AB-BEBA-78DD49520066.thumb.gif.5faccdaf10a991cc347bcc32dc17978b.gif 

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

    I'd like to quote a small interesting section from NON-RAMPER PJB's latest post on UKWW

    "Most likely outcome at this stage is that the weak cold front will move into Wales, NW England towards SW England as a very weak feature with the trough axis of the 850mb Theta-W plume which is advecting north into CS & SE Southern England (18-20C) likely to then be destabilised by the approaching upper trough, Increased ascent and vorticity and Thunderstorms will develop across N & NW France or the Bay of Biscay and move and develop as they cross the Channel into CS England and SE England largely routed to the steering flow layer at 850mb-900mb, These moving NNE across CS England into London, SE England. Storms could be highly electric, produce significant C/G Lightning."

    Well well well what do we have here? 

    Models for significant weather continue to push this kind of agenda. 

    Screenshot_20210614_150206.thumb.jpg.b88a47b386c557ebcdea5969cef1cee1.jpgScreenshot_20210614_150224.thumb.jpg.150263e2ea590d67d77a312360104949.jpgScreenshot_20210614_150239.thumb.jpg.c75dea06333ed7156330ca86877e0669.jpgScreenshot_20210614_150258.thumb.jpg.f524aa9258b3fbdf5e9d43df4332e71e.jpg

    Screenshot_20210614_150309.thumb.jpg.ed620a7e81ccca115bc84e98b0d3a3bb.jpgScreenshot_20210614_150349.thumb.jpg.162fc3d542513561611194063a498eef.jpgScreenshot_20210614_150405.thumb.jpg.37e050ddf91c50b13696d83a2b3190a8.jpg

    well London and the SE have little reason to grumble if this comes off but from midlands north where severity looks less intense judging by charts but have to wait and see (can hear the SE now , well you were spoiled last year)

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    18 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Well the UKMO is still very intent on bringing the plume back to the UK next weekend.

    image.thumb.png.531523afe9c3bb2d2e1daebd087029e2.png

    UW144-21.GIF?14-18

    The model has been infamous since January 2013 when it owned the other models at D5 on a split trough at leading to a blizzard. Might this be its summer equivalent?

    Would expect the ECM to follow very, very soon if it's right, though.

    Interpreting the chart above and it is just one model run, a very blink and miss it plume for SE extremities only, airflow much of UK would be from a NE or E direction, modified..

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    12 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    Looks like the UKMO has gone absolutely bonkers again.

    Yes - that's the 22/23c isotherm getting into the SE. Pretty sure it showed something similar yesterday.

    image.thumb.png.844dc6341f95457c4c2534df5dd1e68d.png

    Under that many of the low-counties would break their all time June temps, if it got nudged any further west it’s likely our June record would go as well!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    29 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Under that many of the low-counties would break their all time June temps, if it got nudged any further west it’s likely our June record would go as well!! 

    UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

    Flow is cyclonic out of the east or even north east away from a small corner so i'm not certain it would. That also assumes we don't have precipitation in the area which with a cyclonic flow is not unlikely. 

    Regarding the 12z models and both the GEM and GFS do agree on some kind of cyclonic flow persisting through day 7 however in a departure from this morning they do then both rebuild pressure through days 8-10. 

    GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

    GFSOPEU12_240_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    So, a lot going on during the next three-four days, but, after next weekend it all goes haywire; and talk of 23C T850s would suggest that'll be the case? As for the HP out west, or is it north -- yet more uncertainty -- who knows?🤔

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png 

    And the 'cold' air way up north? Does that really look potent enough to displace all that heat over Europe?😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
    1 hour ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Well the UKMO is still very intent on bringing the plume back to the UK next weekend.

    image.thumb.png.531523afe9c3bb2d2e1daebd087029e2.png

    UW144-21.GIF?14-18

    The model has been infamous since January 2013 when it owned the other models at D5 on a split trough at leading to a blizzard. Might this be its summer equivalent?

    Would expect the ECM to follow very, very soon if it's right, though.

    Could this just be the famous Kent Clipper.  Its freezing cold here in Wales - temps of just 12 degrees at the moment in North east Wales with bitterly cold NW winds. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Reference to those exceptional uppers, well very extreme I say, not saying BBC have it right but showing only 20 degrees for 21st in London with rain.. 

    Not saying it won't happen, but perhaps only 1% chance.

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    I find this day 7 ecm 12z chart interesting. The low that moves up resulting in the mini plumb as with ukmo then intensifies as it leaves our shores heading into the north sea.

    image.thumb.png.aa30a0cba2b266a3a52479d0a86efc5d.png

    Would have thought that could result in some pretty severe weather with all that heat in its circulation....

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
    7 minutes ago, minus10 said:

    I find this day 7 ecm 12z chart interesting. The low that moves up resulting in the mini plumb as with ukmo then intensifies as it leaves our shores heading into the north sea.

    image.thumb.png.aa30a0cba2b266a3a52479d0a86efc5d.png

    Would have thought that could result in some pretty severe weather with all that heat in its circulation....

    Mini Plumb speak for yourself 🤣

    C.S

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
    2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

    From memory, yesterday’s Ukmo 12h ended pretty similar to this?? 🤔 !..trend hopefully 🤞 ?.. 😯 🥵...anyway, the Gfs 12z op precipitation charts etc for Thursday show some large rainfall totals and even though cape looks meh, there is still a risk of embedded storms being imported from the scorching near continent...nice to know that even though Brexit is done, the Europeans still throw a few storms our way! 😉

    EFD5D783-7B7D-4F21-9E42-03C78734F710.thumb.png.cff38c66b2e512be28822516d6195b21.pngAA34C430-D7B3-4121-B35E-BB87159CD17E.thumb.png.3a5e20923fa9464edc9c9efaa36134c3.pngADAA0B7A-6E6D-472A-9F82-543AF1E7273F.thumb.gif.8667f1f0fca96d042ad7ad1343e0c20c.gif2F511BED-C16F-45AB-BEBA-78DD49520066.thumb.gif.5faccdaf10a991cc347bcc32dc17978b.gif 

     

    Nope all the above are EU officially approved, since there is no way that they can be imported into Ireland from the North!!

    MIA

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    It’s a recurring theme in recent days that the ECM in particular but also the ukmo delivers an Encore performance just when it’s cooled down and you think it’s all over!..in a way, the euro models are singing from the same hymn sheet in the mid range..and at least a few GEFS 12z members join in! 😉 ☀️ 🥵🎶 🎤...at least the fat lady isn’t singing yet! 😉

    701855A4-B552-43BE-B9A7-857872392F3B.thumb.png.74da8f24cef0fd69d7271445d4abbef2.pngFACBBE3B-D8A2-4AB9-8302-FE3C1DFF668E.thumb.png.f3be851f5806a00065dd837d54feaace.pngAF74D697-270F-48DF-98C9-EBD4AAB031E2.thumb.png.2debea554325ba96fc0ef934a50a5979.png47913041-86F6-4940-AA8C-1D9967388214.thumb.png.c5b7ed8710821c2098af575039e58bb1.png325D972B-E4BA-4D63-AA7D-9189F4C79AE9.thumb.png.24058cc9c19b638e12b31ca89aeb6343.png

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
    1 hour ago, NApplewhite said:

    Could this just be the famous Kent Clipper.  Its freezing cold here in Wales - temps of just 12 degrees at the moment in North east Wales with bitterly cold NW winds. 

    I want the 12 degrees down here, send them this way pls,

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    Posted
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy days and long hot summer days with a big overnight thunderstorm
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK

    UKMO for a second day really going for some very hot weather for next weekend. Upper air temps touching 22°C in the far SE.🔥 Would bring temps to the mid 30's and maybe high 30's not out of the question if this were to verify.🌡

    * VERY UNLIKELY TO VERIFY FOR NOW *

    UKMO.thumb.PNG.aa2aa170127c93457b190c2eb9f1418c.PNG468291336_UKMOUpperairtemps2.thumb.PNG.3b18fe79a514a5b68738dd779d9a5db4.PNG1440714777_UKMOUpperairtemps3.thumb.PNG.3ecbd1d36148e75d8fce2a7ea5dbeaee.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    1 hour ago, NApplewhite said:

    Could this just be the famous Kent Clipper.  Its freezing cold here in Wales - temps of just 12 degrees at the moment in North east Wales with bitterly cold NW winds. 

    Please send it this way its absolutely stifling in my place here in Kent indoors still 28c was 30c earlier sweating! Kent clipper sounds about right to me were far more like Northern France/low countries climate than the west&north of the UK although less storm action but hopefully that will change this week.

     

    So whats with the extreme UKMO uppers surely under unsettled conditions actualy ground temps wont be that impressive?

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, Iceman2606 said:

    UKMO for a second day really going for some very hot weather for next weekend. Upper air temps touching 22°C in the far SE.🔥 Would bring temps to the mid 30's and maybe high 30's not out of the question if this were to verify.🌡

    * VERY UNLIKELY TO VERIFY FOR NOW *

    UKMO.thumb.PNG.aa2aa170127c93457b190c2eb9f1418c.PNG468291336_UKMOUpperairtemps2.thumb.PNG.3b18fe79a514a5b68738dd779d9a5db4.PNG1440714777_UKMOUpperairtemps3.thumb.PNG.3ecbd1d36148e75d8fce2a7ea5dbeaee.PNG

    There’s more to it than just the uppers: there may be cloud cover and showers with the LP close by.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

    Please send it this way ita absolutely stifling in my place here in Kent indoors still 28c was 30c earlier sweating! Kent clipper sounds about right to me were far more like Northern France/low countries climate than the west&north of the UK although less storm action but hopefully that will change this week, so whats with the UKMO uppers surely under unsettled conditions actualy ground temps wont be that impressive?

    cold front day here in the NW, even a little cool with window open

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    cold front day here in the NW, even a little cool with window open

    Spot on in my back yard, wouldn’t fancy Scotland stm 🥴 

    1A28AC5F-1C09-4967-8C6B-7B92FA5AB621.thumb.jpeg.b9193e6be783514fd305b9051f4d514a.jpeg

    Ecm 12z for a week tomorrow is not expecting 🥵 far from it 🙄

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Plume or no plume, that is the question on the ECM clusters tonight at T192-T240:

    2AE2FEF1-CE76-4F6A-AD22-8990B7AFAD9A.thumb.png.0428824cec2289876dc81d88f9cdd172.png

    23/51 go for some kind of plume, and the UKMO solution is probably in there somewhere.  Be interesting to see what happens by early next week, after the potential for storms later this week.  A lot going on at the moment.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.08125179666e273b73a271cd7aaacd17.pngimage.thumb.png.5844e055b9f64cdcb89b9dde70754692.png

    UKMO looking more than a little fresh in 7 days time - 850s down to -2c near the end of June! Frost in a few sheltered areas?

    Certainly looking more unsettled to start next week, the evolution after this is a bit sketchy though.

    This looks like the most likely scenario - heights out to the west and east of the UK, with the UK in a weak troughing area?
    image.thumb.png.d3671caa1e4512d4e74eee12deb00647.pngimage.thumb.png.fd92e5ba48cb678fec3c3a1263e5b069.png 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Longer-term, this morning's GFS 00Z is hardly that inspiring; that's not where I want to see high pressure:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Meanwhile, there'll be a lot  of water flowing under the bridges, before then.⚡

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Right bad news first!!everything further east on most models which means cooler!!good news is becuase of that its not as wet especially for my part of the world anyway!!yesterdays ecm run had deluge after deluge for the midlands!!much drier today!hopefully stays that way!!!

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