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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    And now the GFS is suggesting that we in the SE might not see any sub5C T850s at all?  🌞

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    This point on the GFS, D9, captures the essence of the ECM ensembles this morning 

    Screenshot_20210612-173620.thumb.png.746cf8606dd8bc5b39a172afed2541dc.png

    The trend today is for a block to take hold to the east, and Atlantic troughs to find no way through.

    If this indeed is the trend, it will make for a fascinating second half of June as await whether the UK is the trough destination, or whether the UK sits just to the east in the thundery zone. Trends today pointing to the latter.

    A very hot couple of weeks coming up for central Europe, it seems.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    4 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

    CFS july and august 500hpa anomalies 

    july.png

    aug.png

    Yes, those look pretty good and back up what some of us have been saying about what is likely to come down the track in even the vaguely foreseeable.  There seems no signal for a resurgence from the Atlantic at the moment, and this is suggested, tentatively, by GloSea5 too.

    Geopotential height 500 first, Jul-Sep, and Sep-Nov for comparison:

    3C9152E4-DEDF-41ED-B84C-3A6A97172D1A.thumb.png.8ed6a44d8acba2126680193ee71316ac.png5728129C-F2FF-4DEF-B097-CCFE290549BF.thumb.png.888d0051edb849a0238c41bd30008b78.png

    Looking good here, but notice that the probability of higher heights is greater in the earlier plot, suggesting that the signal is stronger in the months summer lovers want it i.e. July and August rather than September.  

    2m temperature, here terciles and outer quintiles:

    A9932EE0-CB96-4069-82A8-17B04541D7C9.thumb.png.a1c533a77964818a24d712e76943bdd4.png35F0FFB6-9533-4008-86A9-5BD7758862EB.thumb.png.e2e260ccffcbbe0691282c993f14a87e.png

    Again very promising for a decent summer, with a decent probability of the hottest outer quintile. 

    Precipitation:

    5CFA8735-28DA-440D-B6EA-F56915945467.thumb.png.06e8ba2e1cc9f94ad7ccb88df5d262a5.png

    Less clear, but higher probability of low precipitation.

    So, to kind of sum that up, looks like increased chances of high pressure dominated summer, well we’re seeing that now anyway, potential for heat, some potential for plumes, I would suggest, but within an overall drier than average pattern.  

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    27 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    This point on the GFS, D9, captures the essence of the ECM ensembles this morning 

    Screenshot_20210612-173620.thumb.png.746cf8606dd8bc5b39a172afed2541dc.png

    The trend today is for a block to take hold to the east, and Atlantic troughs to find no way through.

    If this indeed is the trend, it will make for a fascinating second half of June as await whether the UK is the trough destination, or whether the UK sits just to the east in the thundery zone. Trends today pointing to the latter.

    A very hot couple of weeks coming up for central Europe, it seems.

     

    Interesting it is, next week looking very good with the warmth hanging on and the models toying with some storms too, perhaps only for the South East mind.

    Long way out of course, but i'm optimistic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GEM at T132, hmmm!

    092BA6CF-E408-4747-B099-85FABDAFE327.thumb.png.139fa9fdcd791e3109198421874667dc.png9AAC4322-FF2C-4525-B1E0-32D39AB265F7.thumb.png.8c88c34a87da9c11b9c473afeaf2974b.png

    Could be fireworks here…Thursday next week looking very interesting…

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Let’s hope the westward corrections continue!

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    29 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    GEM at T132, hmmm!

    092BA6CF-E408-4747-B099-85FABDAFE327.thumb.png.139fa9fdcd791e3109198421874667dc.png9AAC4322-FF2C-4525-B1E0-32D39AB265F7.thumb.png.8c88c34a87da9c11b9c473afeaf2974b.png

    Could be fireworks here…Thursday next week looking very interesting…

    Yes Gfs12z has considerable storm risk from Wednesday onwards

    image.thumb.png.a9949bce9ff9efe80abcf20ac3fda080.png

    Storm potential definately increasing on the models....could be interesting period for storm fans (including me)..⚡

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Not wanting to exaggerate too much, but I like the GFS 12Z. I like it very much! 🔥🌞💦⚡

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM not quite as far south and west with the trough than GEM, here both T144:

    74E91D4A-E612-4195-9E93-EB1253595D99.thumb.gif.cbf1f661739d685b91fd16a1dd86b423.gif20A8C4D5-7337-428A-9EB8-FB9ACADD570B.thumb.png.872dd18507ba30648e71b894fc259a9f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    28 minutes ago, minus10 said:

    Yes Gfs12z has considerable storm risk from Wednesday onwards

    image.thumb.png.a9949bce9ff9efe80abcf20ac3fda080.png

    Storm potential definately increasing on the models....could be interesting period for storm fans (including me)..⚡

    This chart typifies a typical storm event clouds build over Kent but no storm, then as soon as it crosses the thames/and goes further west BOOM. My timehop reminds me this time a few years ago was some cracking storm in Essex

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Wow what is going on this evening!!this extension of heat keeps upgrading!!!!didnt expect to see that much of an upgrade on ecm!!😎🔥🔥🌡☀️

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    And the GEFS temperature ensembles (for over here at least) have gone doolally . . . up and down like a fiddler’s elbow !😁

    t850Suffolk.png    t2mSuffolk.png

    Edited by Cakie
    It was a bit crass. Gets the message across just the same
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Well that’s an interesting end to the ECM op run, for sure, T240:

    653D4F0B-2856-41F3-9E50-25CC2D23943D.thumb.gif.e98516c55aaf980869015ac00a197e1e.gif

    I’ll just leave that there, as there is a lot of uncertainty in the previous few days, of course.  

    But I will say this, I am strongly of the view that when this current pattern breaks down, which may well be thundery, the high pressure will build back in again…that’s my forecast…we will see…

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Just looking at the ECM 12z operational, if you can’t stand the heat...get out of the Sarf East! 😉...phew it’s a hot sticky run for the most part across the SE init! 🥵 ☀️ ⛈ 🐿 

    BA5111CB-D83A-412E-9AEA-AAADAB0AF362.thumb.png.20d53809e36f5d27a4b579601358afde.png91730D26-482C-4697-8738-CAA4D196CFA0.thumb.png.0bb29a51ff237a12c8c12d90a9dfd939.png3FE585DF-CFFC-48A3-90F4-8DFD087CF588.thumb.png.a7ad33590ad71eee5c66d6987217911d.pngF8AE85A4-8E84-471D-A987-60612D7190B5.thumb.png.4dc8cc16e5fe4815a870a079a97c56a9.png1D9DED65-9135-4B90-AAB4-42FE88498766.thumb.png.06c61885c3ab04069869d14c4e59658b.png12DC4293-38B2-461E-8543-CFB1549587FF.thumb.png.9f32d56adce31461a3e159d86a2a3980.png7F46F4A2-7775-4CCC-ACC7-195297A9B360.thumb.png.e1281f5440699c9a08c55c4bc6652e36.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Well I’m not exactly sure what is going on but contained within the GFS and GEM ensembles there are some truly staggeringly hot members. In fact almost of all the extended GEM members reach 20C at 850mb at one time or another and the mean stays around 12/13C right through to the end. GFS has a massive 24C spread in just 9 or so days, that’s probably the largest spread I’ve ever seen in 19years of model watching. We really could be anywhere in a week or so from flooding under a stagnant trough to record breaking June heat, absolutely crazy.....

    gem-bournemouth-gb-505n.thumb.jpeg.d442f80ee074a99f774d3d8108b147e7.jpeg

    1997966684_gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n20.thumb.jpeg.022a9009edc6fcba8ccda0649cd2231e.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    12 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Well I’m not exactly sure what is going on but contained within the GFS and GEM ensembles there are some truly staggeringly hot members. In fact almost of all the extended GEM members reach 20C at 850mb at one time or another and the mean stays around 12/13C right through to the end. GFS has a massive 24C spread in just 9 or so days, that’s probably the largest spread I’ve ever seen in 19years of mod watching. We really could be anywhere in a week or so from flooding under a stagnant trough to record breaking June heat, absolutely crazy.....

    gem-bournemouth-gb-505n.thumb.jpeg.d442f80ee074a99f774d3d8108b147e7.jpeg

    1997966684_gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n20.thumb.jpeg.022a9009edc6fcba8ccda0649cd2231e.jpeg

    image.thumb.jpeg.e2b993408dcafa7e7520e3e40bec6f5c.jpeg

    I would agree. I’ve been model watching since 2003, in the short to mid term this could be the craziest ensemble I’ve ever seen. 24c difference from top to bottom at day 9. Loads of hot ones, loads of cool ones. Simply crazy!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.jpeg.e2b993408dcafa7e7520e3e40bec6f5c.jpeg

    I would agree. I’ve been model watching since 2003, in the short to mid term this could be the craziest ensemble I’ve ever seen. 24c difference from top to bottom at day 9. Loads of hot ones, loads of cool ones. Simply crazy!!

    I think we can narrow that down a bit, because that chart is ridiculous!  AAM etc, suggest we should focus on the hot ones, I would suggest, supported by the long range models.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    44 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    Seems we’re witnessing, as I suspected some days ago, a classic case of GFS overdoing the AAM drop associated with the declining part of the cycle, causing it to stubbornly predict a long-lived trough over the UK, only to start backing that west and introducing Scandinavia height rises nearer the time, as it slowly catches on to a reality that sees AAM only fall modestly, to near neutral, before climbing again.

    This has a 2018 feel to it - but the low heights to our northwest were exceptionality deep and persistent that June-July, while this time around they don’t look to be as extraordinary.

    That suggests we don’t see such lengthy Azores-Scandinavia ridge linkups this summer - instead, settled spells punctuated by the sort of destabilising plume setups that ECM now shows two of in the next week.

    I've been trying to avoid the 2018 comparison ... but the vanishing low to the SW act was common that year, as in many recent years 

    Looks too cloudy and stormy Thursday to Saturday to get particularly high temperatures on ECM, but nights are going to be less comfortable as the week goes on.

    30C still just about possible tomorrow, and could be exceeded Wednesday.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    Not the first time 850s this hot have verified. Last time we were under crazy 24C uppers was for about three days and temps at the surface were lower than the 850s themselves. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    3 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    Not the first time 850s this hot have verified. Last time we were under crazy 24C uppers was for about three days and temps at the surface were lower than the 850s themselves. 

    Remember this - we had 850s above 20c and the max for the day was about 28c in SW England due to a cold undercut from the east.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    The GFS run is certainly notable but more so for the rainfall it produces. It starts then simply does not stop.

    GFSOPEU12_102_4.png

    GFSOPEU12_126_4.png

    image.thumb.png.8a92a0e759c308fdc8dd3726586c65fd.png

    image.thumb.png.4743e50d97b14573ebb73c63b2a005e7.png
     

    image.thumb.png.4efa0bc0ab10f1d47c9117b6834013d2.png
     

    image.thumb.png.0db810b3a5ddb0ebf678bb937e8ec91e.png

     

    image.thumb.png.4c1009cf08916872e4d6b49d58c30707.png

     

     

     

    image.png

    image.png

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