Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Guest]

Really good GFS 06Z high positioned perfectly, decent uppers really slack pattern and probably mid 20s for most, touch high in the usual spots. 

[mushymanrob]

48 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

To be fair to Chris - it's not totally untrue based on the ECM op run this morning.



Don't think the folks down that eastern flank would be too impressed with temps around 16c in the afternoon!  All conjecture at this stage really. Hopefully it'll settle nice and centrally so that everyone feels the benefit! The trend as you say is the best it's been since early to mid June.
 

 

16 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Is my post anyway inaccurate? I said on the whole it was a decent run!

You are both correct, its just that chris seems to enjoy putting a more negative slant on everything, thats all

[Scorcher]

I get the impression that one or two in here would be disappointed if there wasn't something to moan about...

Things are really looking up from the middle of next week on- the GFS has backed down from its earlier rogue run and shows mostly settled and very warm/hot weather virtually to the end of the latest run.

Looking very good for a much warmer, sunnier spell and I think we may well see 30C for the first time this summer (finally).

[damianslaw]

A high over the UK forecast as we enter high summer!.. nothing exceptionally warm being shown.. but just like highs in mid winter.. which deliver deep surface cold quickly.. such highs can quickly produce homegrown heat and on the plus side without the humidity and thunder risk that comes from deep warmth on a southerly or south easterly airflow. What's not to like? Pleased we have this outlook now than in a months time when the first embers of late summer creep in subtly.. 

Edited July 9, 2021 by damianslaw

[Sunny76]

14 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I get the impression that one or two in here would be disappointed if there wasn't something to moan about...

Things are really looking up from the middle of next week on- the GFS has backed down from its earlier rogue run and shows mostly settled and very warm/hot weather virtually to the end of the latest run.

Looking very good for a much warmer, sunnier spell and I think we may well see 30C for the first time this summer (finally).

I hope so. 
 

The main let down recently has been the long run of dull days or days where sunshine is in short supply.

[Sunny76]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A high over the UK forecast as we enter high summer!.. nothing exceptionally warm being shown.. but just like highs in mid winter.. which deliver deep surface cold quickly.. such highs can quickly produce homegrown heat and on the plus side without the humidity and thunder risk that comes from deep warmth on a southerly or south easterly airflow. What's not to like? Pleased we have this outlook now than in a months time when the first embers of late summer creep in subtly.. 

Will London the the wider england region get a decent thunderstorm from this?

[summer blizzard]

31 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Will London the the wider england region get a decent thunderstorm from this?

Not in the ten day timeframe, potentially afterwards.

[JayAlmeida]

I like that things are starting to look up now! Think the ECM has proven itself to be top dog over the past few weeks. Was expecting a decent first half of July as our weather pattern this spring/summer very much went against the grain (Cold dry April, cold wet May, warm sunny june) 

I know that down south had a wet second half of June but its usually the other way around. We seem to now be settling into the conventional July/August pattern. Just hope August isn't as disappointing as usual. 

 

[kold weather]

Very much improved prospects but with two caveats:

1: We've seen high pressure being modelled before only for it to up being considerably weaker/north and allowing troughs to sneak in again.

2: Allied to the 1st point, there is always a real risk that even if HP does get in it may well drift further and further NE eventually pushing us into a NE airflow. Still not bad but could be alot of cloud for the east should that happen.

Should the models be correct about the 7-10 day period we probably will see something close to or at 30c at some point. The temps from the models at this point are going to be way too low against reality...IF...it comes off.

[damianslaw]

5 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

I like that things are starting to look up now! Think the ECM has proven itself to be top dog over the past few weeks. Was expecting a decent first half of July as our weather pattern this spring/summer very much went against the grain (Cold dry April, cold wet May, warm sunny june) 

I know that down south had a wet second half of June but its usually the other way around. We seem to now be settling into the conventional July/August pattern. Just hope August isn't as disappointing as usual. 

 

Second half July could well be our best shot at sustained nationwide warmth settled weather.

August not so sure about..  expect the Atlantic to crank up and the default NW-SE divide set in.. better longer term prospects for the SE, less so NW..

[Methuselah]

GEFS 06Z ensembles are nae bad, with little need to fret about clag from the North Sea? Famous last words?

    

Operational run is a warm outlier though, later in the run.

[Mike Poole]

Excellent start to the 12z’s with ICON T180 and UKMO T144 clearly showing the evolution to a UK high:

[mb018538]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Excellent start to the 12z’s with ICON T180 and UKMO T144 clearly showing the evolution to a UK high:

UKMO 144 is far less good than the 00z run…muck spilling around the side there and the high not building as cleanly. Hopefully the 00z was closer to the mark!

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

UKMO 144 is far less good than the 00z run…muck spilling around the side there and the high not building as cleanly. Hopefully the 00z was closer to the mark!

Possibly, I didn’t view the 0z, maybe interesting to look at the T168 when it is out.  

GFS looks better at T144:

Edited July 9, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z looking mighty impressive, come Day 10. It'd take one almighty misfiring Solar Sausage, to wreck it now!

    

Looking very nice at T+288 . . . Could we be in for one of those thundery, partial breakdowns hot summers often provide?

    

Edited July 9, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Mike Poole]

UKMO T168:

Compare GFS at same time:

Actually look pretty similar, 1025 hPa over most of UK.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144, central pressure of the high lower on this one, but the high looks to have better position already than the UKMO or GFS, or GEM for that matter:

[Northwest NI]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T144, central pressure of the high lower on this one, but the high looks to have better position already than the UKMO or GFS, or GEM for that matter:

Still the highest central pressure in the entire snapshot

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Northwest NI said:

Still the highest central pressure in the entire snapshot

GFS and UKMO have a 1030 hPa contour at same time.  But that’s not everything, this run should actually be better, as you can see now the T168 is out:

[carinthian]

Some serious heat building in Spain this weekend. Close to 50c  possible in the Southern interior. Models look ok for the British Isles over the coming  10 days. Light winds in the main should make it pleasant  in the sunnier phases.

C

[Methuselah]

GEFS 12Z ensembles are nae bad, either?

    

    

I'm not sure that 'confidence is the right word, but, whatever it is, I have more of it when the operational run isn't a warm outlier. Please note that this does not necessarily apply, during the winter months!

[sheikhy]

Fantastic ecm 12z!!same as the 00z!!!?!

[ChannelThunder]

Much to like about that ECM, and it even has the potential to turn 'plumey' at the end. Two Julys in a row without any form of plume would be unheard of, so fingers crossed one is just around the corner.

[Captain Shortwave]

Best run of the summer from the ECM with 850s approaching the mid teens widely by week 2. This should correspond to temperatures reaching the low thirties in favoured spots.

However with the UKMO showing the trough to the east being reinvigorated by a system crossing to the north of the U.K. then caution is needed. However it would be great to see the ECM be right on this one.

[sheikhy]

Ecm mean backs the op 100 percent!!!!looks like summer is bout to make a comeback good and proper!!!!