Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Ed, youre just talking out your backside now, it’s another terrible chart for the pinnacle of summer!

Heavy showers, mid to high teens, maybe somewhere in the east might sneak 20C . Can you please look at the underlying surface conditions…

And you take all those surface charts (umpteen days' hence) as gospel? More fool you! 

[Djdazzle]

Just catching up. I saw Tamara’s post earlier - is the gist of it that we should pretty much ignore the operationals?

[Frosty.]

I found a few good charts for next week from the GEFS 12z...and a few more further into July, for sure it’s a mixed outlook indicated but I’m just trying to keep the feel good factor of the England win ️  going for a while longer! ...the models don’t look great but the models don’t control the weather! Back of the net!!  

 

 

[mb018538]

 

Safe to say the ecm 00z is a distant memory now….12z looks like the rest and is very poor by Monday.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

Safe to say the ecm 00z is a distant memory now….12z looks like the rest and is very poor by Monday.

You sure? Pretty sure you can 30C out that chart

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

You sure? Pretty sure you can 30C out that chart

I don't know about 30C, but I'm sure you could even get sleet out of it!

Edited June 29, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Spah1]

Can we not just have 3/4 weeks of dry, very warm weather.

[JayAlmeida]

That ECM 12z run seals the deal. Been singing the first line of Wake up boo all day for some reason.

 

[northwestsnow]

TBH I'm so happy about the football I dont care what ECM shows

Joking aside , EC is very volatile , but it seems the models are converging on this horrid Low making a bee line for Blighty.

Hardly unusual, of course I'm personally not wanting to see a southerly tracking jet ,but we may see an unsettled phase ,duration unknown.

[JayAlmeida]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Can we not just have 3/4 weeks of dry, very warm weather.

I find it hilarious that it's actually the scandi high blocking in the low pressure over the top of us.

[Methuselah]

Just now, JayAlmeida said:

That ECM 12z run seals the deal. Been singing the first line of Wake up boo all day for some reason.

 

I don't think the ECM 12Z (or any other model-run, for that matter) seals anything . . . As I said before, weather is the archetypal Type 1 chaotic system.

[JayAlmeida]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I don't think the ECM 12Z (or any other model-run, for that matter) seals anything . . . As I said before, weather is the archetypal Type 1 chaotic system.

So they are all wrong then? GFS, ECM ,GEM, UKMO etc. I'd be more optimistic if these charts where +240 out but they are within the reliable timeframe. I doubt there will be much of a change now.

[Howie]

13 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Can we not just have 3/4 weeks of dry, very warm weather.

Oh my goodness. This is horrific 

[Sweatyman]

14 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

That ECM 12z run seals the deal. Been singing the first line of Wake up boo all day for some reason.

 

i hate that song and i blame you for the death of summer!

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

So they are all wrong then?

No, not at all . . . Just that predictions can have no effect on the outcome; models exert not one iota of influence on the the weather.

[Mike Poole]

Does look like the dross is edging towards over by T240 on ECM:

But noting what @Singularity and @Tamara have said I would expect that the models correct to a more favourable output for the UK a little earlier than this.  We will see…

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

No, not at all . . . Just that predictions can have no effect on the outcome; models exert not one iota of influence on the the weather.

Then why bother posting countless charts referencing them every day? If that’s that’s your outlook then you might as well just wake up and look out of the window and see how weather for the day goes…

Anyway, back to tonight. We’ve gone from a Scandi high on the 00z run to a scandi trough on the 12z. Seeing as all the extended forecasts want a scandi high, a big trough there would be against the guidance and a massive bust.

 

[Methuselah]

Just now, mb018538 said:

Then why bother posting countless charts referencing them every day? If that’s that’s your outlook then you might as well just wake up and look out of the window and see how weather for the day goes…

Anyway, back to tonight. We’ve gone from a Scandi high on the 00z run to a scandi trough on the 12z. Seeing as all the extended forecasts want a scandi high, a big trough there would be against the guidance and a massive bust.

 

Why? Just because computer models don't control the weather? 

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

itll be interesting to see what tonights noaa charts show at around 8.15pm ... will they hold ground or shift to allow the low across the country like the gfs currently is predicting..

Well this is interesting, The NOAA Anomaly charts remain steadfast, they are not expcting that strong high to our northeast to disappear / give way to the Atlantic trough

This really is shaping up to be a classic Anomaly/op battle ....

 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, JayAlmeida said:

I think we all know the answer to this looking at the recent model output.

lol... do we?

[Methuselah]

And I think I'll err on the side of the anomalies, mushy; they do have a somewhat better 'batting average' than the flighty ops? Anywho, as I work either outside or in polytunnels, I'll take the GEFS 12Z temperature ensembles with open arms:

     

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

lol... do we?

Wish I knew what your usual charts mean!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm siding with the NOAA crew on this one,I also think the mean as the trough pegged back further West...and it kind of lifts out all together later in the run. This one is far from a done deal I'm the short to mid term. But hey ho Mrs Merkel your boys took one hell of a beating!! Been waiting a lifetime to say that..

Edit..just posted the 0z mean..updates to follow.

An improving picture beyond day 7 from the 12z mean...hints of improvement for sure.

Thanks for the great NOAA analysis @mushymanrob and JH

Edited June 29, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[northwestsnow]

The mean has the jet nudged north later on meaning any troughing is brief.

Thats my party political forecast  for the warm weather perspective anyway...

[Frosty.]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The mean has the jet nudged north later on meaning any troughing is brief.

You’re right, there’s signs of hope from the Azores later in the ECM 12z ensemble mean!