Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

JMA screenshots of July and August taken from Gavs weather videos latest JMA update.

I'd say high pressure is ruling the entire Northern hemisphere for the whole of July and Aug this summer all apart from one lucky recipient who remains stuck under a trough

[Guest]

22 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

JMA screenshots of July and August taken from Gavs weather videos latest JMA update.

I'd say high pressure is ruling the entire Northern hemisphere for the whole of July and Aug this summer all apart from one lucky recipient who remains stuck under a trough

If it didn’t happen so regularly you’d think it was funny.

[mushymanrob]

40 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

JMA screenshots of July and August taken from Gavs weather videos latest JMA update.

I'd say high pressure is ruling the entire Northern hemisphere for the whole of July and Aug this summer all apart from one lucky recipient who remains stuck under a trough

thats nearly the complete opposite of what the ecm chart for j/jl/a was predicting (posted last week here).

thankfully the JMA s track record for accuracy isnt that great, but this chart will please the moaners as it gives them something to moan about..

[weatherguru14]

52 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

JMA screenshots of July and August taken from Gavs weather videos latest JMA update.

I'd say high pressure is ruling the entire Northern hemisphere for the whole of July and Aug this summer all apart from one lucky recipient who remains stuck under a trough

Like everyone else. His opinion changes depending on the day.. lets face it. No one has any idea what July or August will bring 

[Methuselah]

And here's the very latest MetO's thinking on the models:

 

[mhielte]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

If it didn’t happen so regularly you’d think it was funny.

It's not a forecast, Chris. As others have pointed out these videos change regularly and are helpful from a knowledge/analysis perspective but I know Gavin himself isn't actually predicting these sorts of very long range charts to come off.

[johnholmes]

32 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And here's the very latest MetO's thinking on the models:

 

Well worth watching these videos, and listen carefully  to what the forecaster says! Of course they change, that is because the models are 'trying' to predict what and when changes will occur to the weather.

 

[southbank]

2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Well worth watching these videos, and listen carefully  to what the forecaster says! Of course they change, that is because the models are 'trying' to predict what and when changes will occur to the weather.

 

Totally agree John  , found that video excellent and very informative and shows just how complex these situations are . 

[mushymanrob]

48 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And here's the very latest MetO's thinking on the models:

 

the "most likely scenario" is what the noaa charts show...

[mb018538]

14 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

the "most likely scenario" is what the noaa charts show...

You mean the ones that didn’t show any sort of troughing over the UK at all a couple of days ago?

These are better than the bbc/meteogroup ones now for sure. Their extended forecast is a bit of a joke nowadays, they usually just show the ecm 00z op run and say this will happen, even if it’s an outlier or not with other output.

[Daniel*]

18 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

You mean the ones that didn’t show any sort of troughing over the UK at all a couple of days ago?

These are better than the bbc/meteogroup ones now for sure. Their extended forecast is a bit of a joke nowadays, they usually just show the ecm 00z op run and say this will happen, even if it’s an outlier or not with other output.

Little small features are never going to be well picked up, I remember last month I think it was pressure was near 1030mb there was a weather front producing rain. Nothing is infallible, I think mushy takes these NOAA charts a little too close to heart.

[mb018538]

Ill take this I reckon. Keep that rank unsettled weather over the other side of the channel! A few showers in the south but no deluge.

[sheikhy]

A drier gfs up to 156 hours so far and quite warm and humid!!!and the ukmo is even better!!!looks warm and sunny more widely!!good start!hopefully ecm 12z is the same as its 00z run?!

[mb018538]

GFS looks very good indeed by Wednesday - if that trough stays where it is!

[wimblettben]

6 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Firstly its much better today here than recently. Secondly it looks a tad more unsettled through the Weekend with the increasing threat of showers which could get severe at times,so you storm chasers may be looking good! It looks to be remaining on the warm and humid side towards the South also. I feel things will begin to settle down beyond this also, so very warm spells could become increasingly likely as we move forward! Just noticed some are mentioning the Exter update favours very warm conditions moving forward also!

What could this mean? Plenty of beach Weather,and the risk of Storms galore for some! What's not to like folks...something for everyone.

And hopefully the storms will affect more areas this time and not just the southeast!

[mushymanrob]

 

10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS looks very good indeed by Wednesday - if that trough stays where it is!

In line with what the Anomaly charts have been suggesting .. lol

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

Well worth watching these videos, and listen carefully  to what the forecaster says! Of course they change, that is because the models are 'trying' to predict what and when changes will occur to the weather.

 

I actually really like these and find them easy to follow.

[dubmuffin]

12 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I actually really like these and find them easy to follow.

Agree, I've just watched it too and now understand why the forecasts are so flaky this week. Wasn't too keen on the big patches of blue over the south - going to have a hard time dodging the rain this weekend!

[mb018538]

Second ECM run in a row that’s absolute garbage. Trough never leaves, and bu Friday it’s rain or showers all over the place. Hoping this is a stinking outlier compared with the others!

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Second ECM run in a row that’s absolute garbage. Trough never leaves, and bu Friday it’s rain or showers all over the place. Hoping this is a stinking outlier compared with the others!

Goodness, it’s an absolute stinker isn’t it.

[stodge]

Evening all

A better day after the deluges of recent days here in downtown East London though it's not done my hay fever any favours.

From early July to mid August is our real window for heat - yes, we can get some very warm weather right into October but those hoping for 35+c are going to be watching the next few weeks carefully. The synoptics haven't dropped well for heat fans - persistent HP to the west and a trough over north western Europe has kept the heat bottled up well to the south or funnelled into eastern Scandinavia. In some ways, it's the reverse of the winter effect caused by the PV.

For a change tonight, I thought I'd put up some 850 charts instead of the usual 500 charts just to see if we have any hot air in the offing:

T+216 tonight (why not?) so looking ahead to Friday July 2nd:

12Z from GFS OP, GFS Control, GEM, ECM and JMA 

It could be a lot worse of course but the +20 850 isotherm remains well to the south so we're not looking at serious heat. Warm, though, under +12 850s and pleasantly so. ECM a shade disappointing compared to some of the other output and the sense is as long as the HP ridges to the north we will always be cut off from the supply of hottest air and have to rely on some vicarious warmth from Scandinavia. That being said, it could be very decent for northern Britain and it's not too bad for the south though the problem will always be proximity to the European trough which sets up in response to the HP ridging through northern Britain to Scandinavia and is fuelled by the heat building from North Africa through Iberia into France where I suspect there will be lots of storms.

[Frosty.]

The ECM 12z operational looks all white to me! .. ....being serious though it looks warm next week, according to the 850’s?...so it will feel like summer! even by day 10 it still looks warm.  

 

[JayAlmeida]

10 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all

A better day after the deluges of recent days here in downtown East London though it's not done my hay fever any favours.

From early July to mid August is our real window for heat - yes, we can get some very warm weather right into October but those hoping for 35+c are going to be watching the next few weeks carefully. The synoptics haven't dropped well for heat fans - persistent HP to the west and a trough over north western Europe has kept the heat bottled up well to the south or funnelled into eastern Scandinavia. In some ways, it's the reverse of the winter effect caused by the PV.

For a change tonight, I thought I'd put up some 850 charts instead of the usual 500 charts just to see if we have any hot air in the offing:

T+216 tonight (why not?) so looking ahead to Friday July 2nd:

12Z from GFS OP, GFS Control, GEM, ECM and JMA 

It could be a lot worse of course but the +20 850 isotherm remains well to the south so we're not looking at serious heat. Warm, though, under +12 850s and pleasantly so. ECM a shade disappointing compared to some of the other output and the sense is as long as the HP ridges to the north we will always be cut off from the supply of hottest air and have to rely on some vicarious warmth from Scandinavia. That being said, it could be very decent for northern Britain and it's not too bad for the south though the problem will always be proximity to the European trough which sets up in response to the HP ridging through northern Britain to Scandinavia and is fuelled by the heat building from North Africa through Iberia into France where I suspect there will be lots of storms.

That low is a real pain and is causing havoc with the forecasts as of late. We tend to see what we want to see and the GFS 00z and 06z look much more pleasing to my eye in the extended range. All to be resolved as anything past 7 days can only be taken with a pinch of salt with the current level of uncertainty.

[Daniel*]

I’ve lost complete faith with ECM it is having a diabolical year, yesterday it was showing a fabulous summer pattern with intense ridging now we can’t shake off a low to south, and when it does go, along comes westerlies..

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Vile Ecm 

21 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The ECM 12z operational looks all white to me! .. ....being serious though it looks warm next week, according to the 850’s?...so it will feel like summer! even by day 10 it still looks warm.  

 

The ECM 12z is dreadful. Put away your  polish

Edited June 23, 2021 by 38.7°C