Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Guest]

I'm not sure if I'm making this up but the models do seem to get a let aggressive with cut-off lows around 120-144hrs, we're in that sort of zone now and nothing other my gut says any breakdown will be weaker or later than currently shown. 

[Roadrunner]

27 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I'm not sure if I'm making this up but the models do seem to get a let aggressive with cut-off lows around 120-144hrs, we're in that sort of zone now and nothing other my gut says any breakdown will be weaker or later than currently shown. 

I hope so @Alderc, especially around Bournemouth! Come on the sun! 

[Mike Poole]

ECM also going with a possibly sustainable longer term pattern of settled summer weather at T192:

 

[mb018538]

If the thundery low clears through by the middle of next week and pressure rebuilds then I’ll take it. If it leads to unsettled weather again then it’ll be a big letdown! Most of the output favours a rebuild so let’s hope it comes to fruition.

[Frosty.]

The Good news is the ECM 12z operational is predominantly anticyclonic & warm, just a little trough activity and day 10 is warmer than the 0z!...amazing what a glass half full can do..or even a glass full or 5 of Stella..hiccup..   !!    

 

 

Edited May 28, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Mike Poole]

JMA delivers too, T264:

The runs wax and wane don’t they?  But the bigger picture change is to the trough anchored out west allowing the Azores ridge to build towards us.  That is now constant in the models, and maybe reflects high AAM paying out:

Very confident now about a warm or hot spell into June.  Uncertainty still over potential for plumes and thunderstorms, I think, still uncertainty over where the trough sets up to our west, i.e. how close…

Edited May 28, 2021 by Mike Poole

[lassie23]

Here's hoping for a warm sunny summer with cool nights and crappy humid weather staying where it should be.

[Gordon Webb]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

Here's hoping for a warm sunny summer with cool nights and crappy humid weather staying where it should be.

this is a sentiment i can agree with

[Man With Beard]

3 hours ago, Alderc said:

I'm not sure if I'm making this up but the models do seem to get a let aggressive with cut-off lows around 120-144hrs, we're in that sort of zone now and nothing other my gut says any breakdown will be weaker or later than currently shown. 

Those lows are never straightforward, are they. I think we're set till Wednesday, when we may breach 80F for the first time this year, and then it's a bit uncertain for a few days but like to turn warm again behind the trough even if it does reach us.

[eastangliawx]

Gfs 18z is an improvement on the 12z 

Looks like high pressure may build again straight after any breakdown

12z vs 18z (144h) - 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 hours ago, samwx said:

Gfs 18z is an improvement on the 12z 

Looks like high pressure may build again straight after any breakdown

12z vs 18z (144h) - 

More energy digs SE and a LP forms over Europe

18z is a humid and damp run tbh.

Ensembles look fairly wet after the initial pressure build too- though most likely a lot of chop and changing still to come!

Meteociel - Diagrammes GEFS

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

 

 

 

Edited May 29, 2021 by CreweCold

[Methuselah]

Nothing nasty lurking the GFS's woodshed, this morno . . . a longish spell of warmer-than-average weather beckons:

     

     

     

What I could really do with, now, is one of @Tamara's amazing missives!?

And a nice steady-as-you-go set of GEFS 00Z ensembles:

     

Edited May 29, 2021 by Ed Stone
added ensembles

[Ben Sainsbury]

Majority of the models possibly reducing the likelihood of an aggressive breakdown next week, as the low coming up from the Bay of Biscay appears to be shallower than previous runs. Currently, will lead to a few 'cooler' days but a return to warmer temperatures look likely into next weekend.

[bluearmy]

Cross model agreement on the ens beyond day 11/12 (that’s notable at such a range) of a mean upper ridge in our part of the NH - that could be centred between e Atlantic and scandi - quite varied outcomes for the U.K.  but that’s a strong signal for the pattern to remain blocked. 

[northwestsnow]

39 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Cross model agreement on the ens beyond day 11/12 (that’s notable at such a range) of a mean upper ridge in our part of the NH - that could be centred between e Atlantic and scandi - quite varied outcomes for the U.K.  but that’s a strong signal for the pattern to remain blocked. 

Thanks Blue...

I'm getting 1996 deja vu ...ironically enough England hosted the Euros that June too..

[Djdazzle]

39 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thanks Blue...

I'm getting 1996 deja vu ...ironically enough England hosted the Euros that June too..

1996 wax a pretty good summer, although it tends to be forgotten as it directly followed the historic summer of 1995.

Positive output this morning - breakdown downgraded somewhat and high pressure never far away.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Cross model agreement on the ens beyond day 11/12 (that’s notable at such a range) of a mean upper ridge in our part of the NH - that could be centred between e Atlantic and scandi - quite varied outcomes for the U.K.  but that’s a strong signal for the pattern to remain blocked. 

I have a feeling that, with all that hot air over the European mainland, we'll see a very blocked summer. Not that that said blocking will always be in the 'right' place, though!

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

1996 wax a pretty good summer, although it tends to be forgotten as it directly followed the historic summer of 1995.

Positive output this morning - breakdown downgraded somewhat and high pressure never far away.

We had a German lad (Mateus?) staying with us for the early rounds of Euro 96. Fortunately (for him at least!) he'd returned home by the time the semi-finals came along!

Anywho, Germans, Scots and Sassenachs spending time either watching, or playing, footy together (in gloriously sunny weather!) will always be one of my fondest memories!

Edited May 29, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Eagle Eye]

A possible thundery breakdown its looking like, coming up from Spain and France as a result of the Plume, with pretty high levels of CAPE in the 3rd/4th there could be a good few French imports if they can survive the channel, this ouptup would be great for nearly all of the South but especially the South East if this came off. 

 

Edited May 29, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[eastangliawx]

Big differences between 0z and 6z gfs at just 102h with that low. 6z has it much weaker, i dont think this breakdown is sorted just yet

0z vs 6z

[Methuselah]

I'm not sure as I'd call what looks like happening a 'breakdown', @samwx. A breakdown, in my books, is what happened in early July 1970: after weeks of sun and warmth, Atlantic cack moved-in and never left. Anywho:

     

In the meantime: 

 

[Frosty.]

 The Gfs 6z op certainly has a happy ending! ...actually, there’s plenty of warmth and high pressure at times through the run...is it perfect?...nope, far from it..but it’s a million times better than the cold trough dominated garbage of MAY...a month to forget if ever there was one..temperature wise at least, it’s been a bad joke..but I admit, there’s been some great April..I mean May showers!,  ...anyway..roll on summer..soo close now! ? 

Edited May 29, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Frosty.]

Well, I’ve just looked through the GEFS 6z..including the mean!.....and at no time is it as trough dominated..or as cold!..not like in MAY..nothing like! For sure there’s some unsettled members but I think you would find, even in a red hot summer, like1976.. for example ... ..if they existed!..there would be at least a few crap members!...anyway..spring is almost behind us..thank god!..and summer is just a few days ahead of us..good, bad, indifferent!..it’s almost here! ...as for me, I hope it’s a good one..you may not agree with me but you can’t dispute my hope that summer 2021 is a good one, perhaps even very good!!!   ⛈ ? 

 

Edited May 29, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Frosty.]

Das Ukmo 12h ist uberhaupt nicht schlecht es ist ziemlich warm und nicht sehr unruhig! lhr !!!...wow..I really must learn English!    

 

Edited May 29, 2021 by Jon Snow

[minus10]

Er right.....I think JS is saying that the UKMO run is not bad and quite warm. (Not that I speak German)

Meanwhile the 12Z GFS is a bit cooler towards the later stages compared with the 6Z with HP not so prominent over the UK allowing a bit of a trough to encroach, although it does recover again from the Azores somewhat near the end.  

We have the warm spell and thundery bit in the bag I think, however more uncertainty after that, although nothing too desperate it would seem....

 

Edited May 29, 2021 by minus10