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Going Early With A Winter 2021 - 2022 Prediction


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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    I am throwing caution to the wind now.

    This is as a result of being flushed with success over my Easter prediction made two months in time which nearly came good, and the feeling that I am, at last, on a roll!  (Warning, the roll may have already stopped!)

    What I am looking at now is how comfortable high pressure is beginning to look over Greenland.  So I am rushing into making this prediction.  It will be a feature for many months to come.  It will wax and wane to some extent but generally have establish a strong presence that will endure to the end of the year and beyond and will rarely be interrupted. I'm not sure, or predicting what this will mean for summer, though I would expect the odd plume or two to develop.  i think we could end up having a particularly mild October.  But here's what I mainly predict

    Winter 2021 - 2022 will be a memorable one for those that love the cold and the snow

    It will be one that sets in earlier than any we have seen for the previous 10 winters and will rival 2010 for severity, and surpass it for longevity. There will be Murr sausages enough for everyone!

    If I have ever previously made predictions about winter, I've been more inclined to be pessimistic than anything else.  But this time I have this feeling in my bones already. I shall spend the summer on Amazon and Ebay, snapping up cheap sledges!

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    It’s hard to say how next winter will pan out, but I have a feeling we have now moved into a cooler phase, starting with winter 2020/21, and possibly a more potent cold spell will take place next winter. 
     

    A cooler or unsettled summer might also determine how things pan out. Although, summer weather doesn’t always have much bearing on the following winter. It did seem the case back in the late 2000s, that poor summers were followed by colder winters, same as the 1985-88 period. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Any idea what the weekend's lottery numbers will be?😁

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    10 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    Any idea what the weekend's lottery numbers will be?😁

    Avoid the hot numbers!

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

    I’ll have the Met O numbers, got no chance of winning F all..only joking as what’s the point....you’ve got more chance of the 6 numbers 🥴

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    • 4 months later...
    Posted
  • Location: West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: A variety, but nothing too extreme
  • Location: West Midlands

    Still very early, but these weather prediction threads are always fun.

     

    December: Mild and wet with two named storms. Particularly windy around Christmas day.

    January: December's mild and wet theme continues into the first half of January, along with a few strong winds here and there. Thereon becomes increasingly cooler and many places will see a heavy snowfall or two. 

    February: Begins cold and frosty with high pressure dominating, which will give some clear skies. Thereafter, high pressure still dominates but it will be cloudier as anticyclonic gloom takes hold. A spring-like feel to the weather around the 20th before it becomes wet and windy again.

     

     

    Edited by Weather Enthusiast91
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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

    Well this is based on August 1 run, we will have a new forecast next week. this is all free on the Copernicus site, supported by ECM etc. Now this is long forecast distance, here we go. Note the UK met office also contribute their data to the site, see last chart. Also the French do too.

     

    Temperature Dec/Jan/Feb

    image.thumb.png.95d1517abee486a2bf861ad0c4eec5a2.png

    Precipitation looks average (24 year climate)

    image.thumb.png.0502bfb59d1fe39ef2dbc5cb6f26454f.png

     

    UK Met Office

    image.thumb.png.b3734d64afd1d9be9d007fcd26b63fbe.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    Just a little snapshot for December 2021 based on the CFS 00z 9 month run for the 26/08/2021 just for a bit of fun just to see what CFS is going for this December. No doubt this run will be miles out from what actually happens.

    December    00z
    Date  England Precip    England Max/Min          Date   England Precip    England Max/Min
    1         Wet                       Max 10C    Min 8C          17       Dry                        Max 4C    Min 0C
    2         Wet                       Max 10C    Min 4C          18       Dry                        Max 4C    Min 0C
    3         Dry                        Max 8C    Min 4C            19       Wet                       Max 4C    Min -2C
    4         Av                          Max 8C    Min 4C            20       Dry                        Max 0C    Min -2C
    5         Wet                       Max 12C    Min 6C          21       V Dry                    Max 0C    Min -2C
    6         Wet                       Max 12C    Min 8C          22       Dry                       Max 0C    Min -4C
    7         Wet                       Max 12C    Min 8C          23       Av                         Max 4C    Min -2C
    8         Av                          Max 12C    Min 6C          24       Av                         Max 4C    Min -2C
    9         Wet                       Max 14C    Min 4C          25       Dry                       Max 4C    Min -2C
    10       Av                          Max 12C    Min 10C       26       Dry                       Max 0C    Min -4C
    11       Av                          Max 10C    Min 8C         27       Wet                      Max 8C    Min 4C
    12       Av                          Max 12C    Min 9C         28       Wet                      Max 4C    Min 0C
    13       Wet                       Max 12C    Min 8C         29       Dry                       Max 4C    Min -2C
    14       Av                         Max 6C    Min 0C            30       Dry                       Max 4C    Min 0C
    15       Av                         Max 6C    Min 4C            31       Wet                      Max 10C    Min 4C
    16       Av                         Max 4C    Min 2C

    Precipitation                  26/08/21 CFS 00z      CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies
        100% of Av                 Av Max      6.90C        Max  7.71C                       -0.81C
                                             Av Min       2.61C        Min  2.23C                       +0.38C
                                             Av Mean    4.76C        Mean 4.97C                     -0.21C

    On this particular run we generally see a milder first half to December 2021 then a colder second half with the coldest weather overall in the run up to the Christmas period in particular. With a few wet days dotted about within this colder period there is snow potential here on the 19th December 2021 as well as the 28th too. Some of the average days had what looked like shower activity in the east and north in particular so snow showers are a possibility at times too early in the colder period.

    What is interesting here is that this particular run goes for a colder than average December 2021 and not only that the autumn period preceding this December sees quite a bit of northern blocking at times and sudden retrogression of high pressure from the UK towards Iceland and Greenland. Is this a teaser sign of what the winter could hold.

    Had a look through January and February 2022 and it seems the milder weather that arrives at the end of December 2021 on this run is only brief as by the 6th January 2022 low pressure dives south and an easterly sets up behind it with northern blocking back on again.

    image.thumb.png.a1fbd4604053a801f1773fabb09f2f13.png

    We stay cold and then anticyclonic till the 14th when the Atlantic breaks back through again.

    image.thumb.png.4b38433fbc81d6b367eebccc1c6aaa48.png

    Even this breakthrough by the Atlantic struggles against a large Scandi block

    image.thumb.png.a5f2757bbd420b5ffd47614660358d01.pngimage.thumb.png.3d0dd78011856548c852aa2b4ce874b7.png

    Eventually we go back colder again by 23rd January 2022.

    image.thumb.png.ffc9a2406660e9eada3282d5a111565b.png

    On 24th this monster low looks like it is going to blow away the blocking to the east

    image.thumb.png.7c20383dbbb9fc1339ee5fb93c9d2b15.png

    However the unexpected shock happens when it just gets stuck then starts diving under the block

    image.thumb.png.95c18e3a2724bb7a578e088b9d5b5790.png

    Here's a snow lovers chart for 28th January 2022 after the Atlantic attempt just fizzles out

    image.thumb.png.34a2bae2f6da48ccd61db2db2e2eb839.png

    After this we enter a long period of anticyclonic conditions with severe frosts no doubt above the snow that fell around the 25th to 28th January period right up to 13th February when the Atlantic is beginning to stir once again

    image.thumb.png.ebe5caeffeb0884992c493c24ef132aa.png

    This like other Atlantic attempts is brief and soon fizzles out as by the 18th Feb 2022 we are back under high pressure once again

    image.thumb.png.caba824d165f788bb5becab5b8e53734.png

    It remains anticyclonic right to the end of February 2022 but the Atlantic looks ready to strike for the start of March 2022. Winter isn't over however as by mid March northern blocking is back again and the most severe looking winter charts appear after this point

    image.thumb.png.8db39c5424454786887b8cea7d2336a7.pngimage.thumb.png.0fbb698388dfbb394b93bdc8896ed844.png

    Look at this Spring equinox Beast from the East then

    image.thumb.png.7b9a68c1f9f03e3d31ecd7f5f9be9dd1.png

    It stays cold until late March when it looks like winter is finally over on this particular run as the cold goes and never returns after that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Bright weather. Warm sunny thundery summers, short cold winters.
  • Location: Hampshire

    Completely unscientific, but partly based on the relatively frequent cool weather in recent months; I do remember the last time we had reasonably-memorable winters in a row (2009-2013) we also had frequent cool weather at other times of year. So I'm predicting something slightly colder-than-average this year, and a good deal drier than the last two gloomy and unpleasant winters.

    I am going for something of a front-loaded winter, with a second bite in February, with a mild and wet January. Based on nothing more than 'we've had a long run of mild or average Decembers, it's surely time for a definite cold one now' and we've had quite a few not-Atlantic-dominated Januaries recently (2017, 2019, 2021) so we're perhaps due a stormy one.

    Anyway - December colder than average with frequent frosty anticyclonic weather, but nothing really severe. Mild and wet early and late.

    January - mild and wet for three weeks, becoming colder and drier at end with the development of an easterly.

    February - cold first two weeks (easterly) with notable widespread snow event. Then mild and dry with the high toppling to northern France and a change from easterly to westerly winds. A very dry month overall in the south, with most precipitation in the south falling as snow. Similar to the Februaries of 2009 and 2012.

    This leading into a mild and mostly dry spring.

    Edited by Summer8906
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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    My take on winter 2021-22 will be a colder version of 2020-21, with a more persistent cold spell with slightly more snow around. 

    Like last year, December will start off mild and remain so until mid month, but turn much colder on the run up to Christmas and New Year. Perhaps a brief mild snap in between Christmas and New year, but remaining quite chilly with lots of cloudy cold days. 

    Going for a sunny cold dry January, with a milder end.

    February is where winter ends, with a milder spell and very wet at times. Persistent southwesterly winds and many overcast damp days. March will be back to cold and cloudy, with a very mild sunny end.

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    What was interesting about the CFS 00z 9 monthly run I looked at earlier was how the rest of the winter panned out too. It would seem this particular CFS run was going for a colder winter overall. First I have all of the daily 2m temp maxes and mins for all days from 1st December 2021 right through to 31st March 2022.

    December
    Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min
    1          Max 10C    Min 8C        9          Max 14C    Min 4C       17         Max 4C    Min 0C         25        Max 4C    Min -2C
    2          Max 10C    Min 4C        10        Max 12C    Min 10C     18         Max 4C    Min 0C         26        Max 0C    Min -4C
    3          Max 8C    Min 4C          11        Max 10C    Min 8C       19         Max 4C    Min -2C        27        Max 8C    Min 4C
    4          Max 8C    Min 4C          12        Max 12C    Min 9C       20         Max 0C    Min -2C        28        Max 4C    Min 0C
    5          Max 12C    Min 6C        13        Max 12C    Min 8C       21         Max 0C    Min -2C        29        Max 4C    Min -2C
    6          Max 12C    Min 8C        14        Max 6C    Min 0C         22         Max 0C    Min -4C        30        Max 4C    Min 0C
    7          Max 12C    Min 8C        15        Max 6C    Min 4C         23         Max 4C    Min -2C        31        Max 10C    Min 4C
    8          Max 12C    Min 6C        16        Max 4C    Min 2C         24         Max 4C    Min -2C                                                     

    January
    Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min
    1          Min 4C  Max 8C            9          Min -2C Max 0C           17         Min 2C  Max 4C           25        Min 0C  Max 0C
    2          Min 4C  Max 8C            10        Min -2C Max 0C           18         Min 2C  Max 4C           26        Min 0C  Max 4C
    3          Min 6C  Max 10C          11        Min -4C Max 0C           19         Min 4C  Max 6C           27        Min 0C  Max 0C
    4          Min 8C  Max 6C            12        Min -2C Max 2C           20         Min 4C  Max 6C           28        Min -2C Max 0C
    5          Min 4C  Max 8C            13        Min -2C Max 0C           21         Min 0C  Max 5C           29        Min 0C  Max 2C
    6          Min 6C  Max 6C            14        Min -6C Max 2C           22         Min 4C  Max 6C           30        Min -6C Max 2C
    7          Min -2C Max 0C            15        Min -4C Max 0C           23         Min 4C  Max 6C           31        Min -2C Max 4C
    8          Min -2C Max 0C            16        Min 0C  Max 4C           24         Min 0C  Max 2C                                                      

    February
    Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min
    1          Min -4C Max 2C           8           Min -2C Max 2C           15         Min 4C  Max 6C           22        Min 4C  Max 6C
    2          Min -4C Max 4C           9           Min -2C Max 3C           16         Min 4C  Max 10C         23        Min -2C Max 4C
    3          Min -2C Max 4C           10         Min 0C  Max 4C           17         Min 8C  Max 9C           24        Min 4C  Max 6C
    4          Min 0C  Max 3C           11         Min 0C  Max 6C           18         Min 4C  Max 8C           25        Min 4C    Max 6C
    5          Min -4C Max 4C           12         Min 4C  Max 7C           19         Min 4C  Max 9C           26        Min 2C    Max 6C
    6          Min -2C Max 4C           13         Min 4C  Max 6C           20         Min 6C  Max 8C           27        Min 0C    Max 6C
    7          Min -2C Max 6C           14         Min 4C  Max 8C           21         Min 6C  Max 7C           28        Min 0C  Max 4C    

    March
    Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min
    1          Min 0C  Max 6C            9          Min 4C  Max 8C           17         Min 4C  Max 7C           25         Min -2C Max 2C
    2          Min 6C  Max 6C           10         Min 2C  Max 6C           18         Min 4C  Max 6C           26         Min -2C Max 4C
    3          Min 4C  Max 6C           11         Min 0C  Max 5C           19         Min 4C  Max 6C           27         Min 3C  Max 8C
    4          Min 6C  Max 10C         12         Min 0C  Max 6C           20         Min 2C  Max 6C           28         Min 2C  Max 6C
    5          Min 8C  Max 6C           13         Min 0C  Max 8C           21         Min 0C  Max 3C           29         Min 4C  Max 7C
    6          Min 6C  Max 10C         14         Min 4C  Max 5C           22         Min -2C Max 2C           30         Min 2C  Max 4C
    7          Min 8C  Max 10C         15         Min 2C  Max 6C           23         Min 0C  Max 4C           31         Min 0C  Max 3C
    8          Min 8C  Max 10C         16         Min 4C  Max 5C           24         Min -2C Max 4C                                                       

    December26/08/21 CFS 00z          CET Means 1991-2020          Anomalies          Ice Days   
    Av Max     6.90C                                CET Max     7.71C                   -0.81C
    Av Min      2.61C                                CET Min      2.23C                  +0.38C                4 Ice Days
    Av Mean   4.76C                                CET Mean  4.97C                   -0.21C                                   

    January    26/08/21 CFS 00z            CET Means 1991-2020         Anomalies          Ice Days    
    Av Max      3.39C                                CET Max     7.37C                  -3.98C
    Av Min       0.52C                                CET Min      1.95C                  -1.43C               10 Ice Days
    Av Mean   1.95C                                 CET Mean  4.66C                   -2.71C                                   

    February26/08/21 CFS 00z              CET Means 1991-2020         Anomalies         Ice Days     
    Av Max      5.64C                                CET Max      7.92C                  -2.28C
    Av Min       1.36C                                CET Min       1.85C                  -0.49C               0 Ice Days
    Av Mean    3.50C                                CET Mean   4.89C                  -1.39C                                    

    March    26/08/21 CFS 00z               CET Means 1991-2020         Anomalies         Ice Days     
    Av Max      5.97C                                CET Max      10.39C               -4.42C
    Av Min       2.55C                                CET Min        3.08C                -0.53C               0 Ice Days
    Av Mean    4.26C                                CET Mean    6.74C                -2.48C                                    

    Overall     26/08/21 CFS 00z     CET Means 1991-2020     Anomalies     Ice Days                    
    Av Max      5.48C                         CET Max     8.35C              -2.87C
    Av Min       1.76C                         CET Min     2.28C               -0.52C             14 Ice Days Overall
    Av Mean    3.62C                         CET Mean  5.32C              -1.70C                                                  

    Summary

    December 2021 - Overall very close to average with a slight bias towards colder than average with a mean CET Anomaly of -0.21C below the 1991-2020 CET mean with colder than average days offset somewhat by slightly milder than average nights. The month starts off generally milder than average before becoming colder later on with the core of the cold in the days leading up to Christmas Day.

    January 2022 - A very cold month predicted by this particular CFS run with the CET mean averaging out at a significant -2.71C below the 1991-2020 mean CET. Both days and nights during this month are below average, especially the daytimes. The core of the cold is in two spells between the 7th and 18th as well as from the 24th to 31st January with somewhat less cold to mild episodes on the other days.

    February 2022 - Not as cold in terms of anomalies compared with January 2022 with a mean CET Anomaly of -1.39C below the 1991-2020 mean but still a good amount colder than average on this particular run. As with January the daytime anomaly is more below average than the night time anomaly. The coldest days of February 2022 on this run are the opening 10 days which are the continuation of the cold spell that begins in late January 2022. Then there is a milder spell before somewhat average temperatures close out the month.

    March 2022 - The much colder than average theme returns here for March 2022 with a mean CET Anomaly of -2.48C below the 1991-2020 mean. Most of this is down to the much colder than average period that comes around the 21st onwards but another significant contributing factor to this anomaly is the rather cold daytimes with the daytime max CET Anomaly a big -4.42C below the average CET Max for March. Despite this anomaly we still achieve 0 ice days during the month but rather a lot of days that sit below 10C and many close to 6C.

    Overall December 2021 to March 2022 Summary - For cold weather lovers this CFS 00z 9 monthly run done on 26/08/2021 looks very interesting and if this came off it would be the coldest winter probably since 2009/2010 with the overall CET Anomaly at -1.70C below the 1991-2020 mean. Probably not as cold as that winter was but to achieve this would be some feat considering how things normally go.

    I will pick out the CFS 00z 9 monthly run dated 02/09/2021 and see how that one compares in a week from now.

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  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I shan’t be looking at any official view until October however currently I place 71, 74, 11 and 17 are likely the strongest analogues heading to winter.

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  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    26 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    I shan’t be looking at any official view until October however currently I place 71, 74, 11 and 17 are likely the strongest analogues heading to winter.

    Are these

             1970/71, 1973/74, 2010/11 and 2016/17

    CET     4.30C       5.40C    3.13C              5.37C              Average 4.55C

    or

             1971/72. 1974/75, 2011/12 and 2017/18?

    CET      4.93C      6.43C      5.07C            4.33C             Average 5.19C

    As I prefer the CET's of the first list overall as they average out lower overall

    Edited by SqueakheartLW
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  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Second for winter. All second year Nina’s not radically different in QBO and PDO.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    5 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    What was interesting about the CFS 00z 9 monthly run I looked at earlier was how the rest of the winter panned out too. It would seem this particular CFS run was going for a colder winter overall. First I have all of the daily 2m temp maxes and mins for all days from 1st December 2021 right through to 31st March 2022.

    December
    Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min
    1          Max 10C    Min 8C        9          Max 14C    Min 4C       17         Max 4C    Min 0C         25        Max 4C    Min -2C
    2          Max 10C    Min 4C        10        Max 12C    Min 10C     18         Max 4C    Min 0C         26        Max 0C    Min -4C
    3          Max 8C    Min 4C          11        Max 10C    Min 8C       19         Max 4C    Min -2C        27        Max 8C    Min 4C
    4          Max 8C    Min 4C          12        Max 12C    Min 9C       20         Max 0C    Min -2C        28        Max 4C    Min 0C
    5          Max 12C    Min 6C        13        Max 12C    Min 8C       21         Max 0C    Min -2C        29        Max 4C    Min -2C
    6          Max 12C    Min 8C        14        Max 6C    Min 0C         22         Max 0C    Min -4C        30        Max 4C    Min 0C
    7          Max 12C    Min 8C        15        Max 6C    Min 4C         23         Max 4C    Min -2C        31        Max 10C    Min 4C
    8          Max 12C    Min 6C        16        Max 4C    Min 2C         24         Max 4C    Min -2C                                                     

    January
    Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min
    1          Min 4C  Max 8C            9          Min -2C Max 0C           17         Min 2C  Max 4C           25        Min 0C  Max 0C
    2          Min 4C  Max 8C            10        Min -2C Max 0C           18         Min 2C  Max 4C           26        Min 0C  Max 4C
    3          Min 6C  Max 10C          11        Min -4C Max 0C           19         Min 4C  Max 6C           27        Min 0C  Max 0C
    4          Min 8C  Max 6C            12        Min -2C Max 2C           20         Min 4C  Max 6C           28        Min -2C Max 0C
    5          Min 4C  Max 8C            13        Min -2C Max 0C           21         Min 0C  Max 5C           29        Min 0C  Max 2C
    6          Min 6C  Max 6C            14        Min -6C Max 2C           22         Min 4C  Max 6C           30        Min -6C Max 2C
    7          Min -2C Max 0C            15        Min -4C Max 0C           23         Min 4C  Max 6C           31        Min -2C Max 4C
    8          Min -2C Max 0C            16        Min 0C  Max 4C           24         Min 0C  Max 2C                                                      

    February
    Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min
    1          Min -4C Max 2C           8           Min -2C Max 2C           15         Min 4C  Max 6C           22        Min 4C  Max 6C
    2          Min -4C Max 4C           9           Min -2C Max 3C           16         Min 4C  Max 10C         23        Min -2C Max 4C
    3          Min -2C Max 4C           10         Min 0C  Max 4C           17         Min 8C  Max 9C           24        Min 4C  Max 6C
    4          Min 0C  Max 3C           11         Min 0C  Max 6C           18         Min 4C  Max 8C           25        Min 4C    Max 6C
    5          Min -4C Max 4C           12         Min 4C  Max 7C           19         Min 4C  Max 9C           26        Min 2C    Max 6C
    6          Min -2C Max 4C           13         Min 4C  Max 6C           20         Min 6C  Max 8C           27        Min 0C    Max 6C
    7          Min -2C Max 6C           14         Min 4C  Max 8C           21         Min 6C  Max 7C           28        Min 0C  Max 4C    

    March
    Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min        Date    England Max/Min
    1          Min 0C  Max 6C            9          Min 4C  Max 8C           17         Min 4C  Max 7C           25         Min -2C Max 2C
    2          Min 6C  Max 6C           10         Min 2C  Max 6C           18         Min 4C  Max 6C           26         Min -2C Max 4C
    3          Min 4C  Max 6C           11         Min 0C  Max 5C           19         Min 4C  Max 6C           27         Min 3C  Max 8C
    4          Min 6C  Max 10C         12         Min 0C  Max 6C           20         Min 2C  Max 6C           28         Min 2C  Max 6C
    5          Min 8C  Max 6C           13         Min 0C  Max 8C           21         Min 0C  Max 3C           29         Min 4C  Max 7C
    6          Min 6C  Max 10C         14         Min 4C  Max 5C           22         Min -2C Max 2C           30         Min 2C  Max 4C
    7          Min 8C  Max 10C         15         Min 2C  Max 6C           23         Min 0C  Max 4C           31         Min 0C  Max 3C
    8          Min 8C  Max 10C         16         Min 4C  Max 5C           24         Min -2C Max 4C                                                       

    December26/08/21 CFS 00z          CET Means 1991-2020          Anomalies          Ice Days   
    Av Max     6.90C                                CET Max     7.71C                   -0.81C
    Av Min      2.61C                                CET Min      2.23C                  +0.38C                4 Ice Days
    Av Mean   4.76C                                CET Mean  4.97C                   -0.21C                                   

    January    26/08/21 CFS 00z            CET Means 1991-2020         Anomalies          Ice Days    
    Av Max      3.39C                                CET Max     7.37C                  -3.98C
    Av Min       0.52C                                CET Min      1.95C                  -1.43C               10 Ice Days
    Av Mean   1.95C                                 CET Mean  4.66C                   -2.71C                                   

    February26/08/21 CFS 00z              CET Means 1991-2020         Anomalies         Ice Days     
    Av Max      5.64C                                CET Max      7.92C                  -2.28C
    Av Min       1.36C                                CET Min       1.85C                  -0.49C               0 Ice Days
    Av Mean    3.50C                                CET Mean   4.89C                  -1.39C                                    

    March    26/08/21 CFS 00z               CET Means 1991-2020         Anomalies         Ice Days     
    Av Max      5.97C                                CET Max      10.39C               -4.42C
    Av Min       2.55C                                CET Min        3.08C                -0.53C               0 Ice Days
    Av Mean    4.26C                                CET Mean    6.74C                -2.48C                                    

    Overall     26/08/21 CFS 00z     CET Means 1991-2020     Anomalies     Ice Days                    
    Av Max      5.48C                         CET Max     8.35C              -2.87C
    Av Min       1.76C                         CET Min     2.28C               -0.52C             14 Ice Days Overall
    Av Mean    3.62C                         CET Mean  5.32C              -1.70C                                                  

    Summary

    December 2021 - Overall very close to average with a slight bias towards colder than average with a mean CET Anomaly of -0.21C below the 1991-2020 CET mean with colder than average days offset somewhat by slightly milder than average nights. The month starts off generally milder than average before becoming colder later on with the core of the cold in the days leading up to Christmas Day.

    January 2022 - A very cold month predicted by this particular CFS run with the CET mean averaging out at a significant -2.71C below the 1991-2020 mean CET. Both days and nights during this month are below average, especially the daytimes. The core of the cold is in two spells between the 7th and 18th as well as from the 24th to 31st January with somewhat less cold to mild episodes on the other days.

    February 2022 - Not as cold in terms of anomalies compared with January 2022 with a mean CET Anomaly of -1.39C below the 1991-2020 mean but still a good amount colder than average on this particular run. As with January the daytime anomaly is more below average than the night time anomaly. The coldest days of February 2022 on this run are the opening 10 days which are the continuation of the cold spell that begins in late January 2022. Then there is a milder spell before somewhat average temperatures close out the month.

    March 2022 - The much colder than average theme returns here for March 2022 with a mean CET Anomaly of -2.48C below the 1991-2020 mean. Most of this is down to the much colder than average period that comes around the 21st onwards but another significant contributing factor to this anomaly is the rather cold daytimes with the daytime max CET Anomaly a big -4.42C below the average CET Max for March. Despite this anomaly we still achieve 0 ice days during the month but rather a lot of days that sit below 10C and many close to 6C.

    Overall December 2021 to March 2022 Summary - For cold weather lovers this CFS 00z 9 monthly run done on 26/08/2021 looks very interesting and if this came off it would be the coldest winter probably since 2009/2010 with the overall CET Anomaly at -1.70C below the 1991-2020 mean. Probably not as cold as that winter was but to achieve this would be some feat considering how things normally go.

    I will pick out the CFS 00z 9 monthly run dated 02/09/2021 and see how that one compares in a week from now.

    An interesting outlook. A very topsy turvy winter if that verified. Suggests a meridional jet flow, southerly tracking lows at times, hence the cold days but not significant cold nights - lack of clear skies, followed by milder feeds once ridge moves through. Quite plausible.. last winter had distinct alternating milder and colder spells with little inbetween.

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    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

    I am expecting a cold UK winter in 21/22 as I think we are in a similar situation to 2009. In November 2009 after MetO predictions of a mild winter I went for a cold one as we were coming out of the solar cycle minimum and the previous winter was fairly cold (the first for many years).

    We are in a similar situation now, coming out of the solar cycle minimum with a previous winter which was by modern standards was fairly cold. Very cold winters are nearly always preceeded by one's that we're fairly cold, think 1978 and 1962.

    Cold winters in the UK tend to come in clusters and I think we are entering another cold winter cluster now.

    So that's my winter forecast for winter 21/22, cold or very cold by modern standards and  certainly the coldest since 2010/11.

    Andy

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  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    As promised a week ago I am giving my next CFS 00z 9 monthly run update, this time for the run dated 02/09/2021. The previous update gave an overall colder than average winter, particularly focused on the January and March of the 4 months I am featuring. Will this latest run be as expected milder than the last considering how cold the run was a week ago or can we possibly squeeze out an even colder run. Time for me to go through it all and find out.

    December 2021

    image.thumb.png.21ce9f204eaaa49db23f308dfbe1b0ca.png

    For cold lovers this is a decent chart to be opening up winter 2021/2022 with as a low dives from the north of the UK down to the south and opens the doors to an early shot from the east

    image.thumb.png.e4877d578a5e86f747ecc32d0042b43a.png

    This brief easterly sees high pressure build in and trap in the colder air leading to a settled period with chilly days and frosty nights.

    image.thumb.png.e2147176ef74240971f2cb374ea64b32.png

    This continues on for several days until the high pressure builds north into Scandi opening the doors to the coldest part of the month

    image.thumb.png.f190cbf5da8bf39b733ee6744a6cc80c.pngimage.thumb.png.205ab75ac04371c9324b01d8c6de4493.png

    This is the coldest part of December 2021 on this run. Look at the extent of that northern blocking and how negative the NAO has gone here.

    image.thumb.png.990694393de32623f5f7d249980bd9d9.png

    The pattern did look locked in but that small dartboard low out in the Atlantic is about to spoil things and put us into zonality just in time for the Christmas period.

    image.thumb.png.448ab7b8be1f0e532dfb3d63a9ec89a5.pngimage.thumb.png.c8645d59626e41ca8a0402b2d9ecbf30.pngimage.thumb.png.76b67575ca4ef65cd291413289001e95.png

    A mild Christmas here on this run and in fact the mildest spell of December 2021 is this period that closes out December 2021.

    Overall December 2021 stats based on this run

    December26/08/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies
    Av Max          4.52C                     Max          7.71C               -3.19C
    Av Min           2.29C                     Min           2.23C              +0.06C          5 Ice Days    
    Av Mean        3.40C                     Mean       4.97C               -1.57C

    With this particular run December 2021 turns out to be a colder than average month despite the mild zonalty that comes later in the month. This is largely thanks to the colder spell that generally lasts from the start right up to near the 20th. Overall a mean CET value of 3.40C which is -1.57C below the 1991-2020 mean and in comparison to the run a week ago this is in fact a much colder anomaly compared to it. The 26/08/2021 run came back with 4.76C and -0.21C below the 1991-2020 mean so a step in the right direction if a colder outcome is what you desire.

    January 2022

    How does January 2022 on the 02/09/2021 run compare with the one from 26/08/2021

    image.thumb.png.43120451972fb0b1f02cf1459fc16061.pngimage.thumb.png.f4fed5f254da464a27b9626f8c0c75e5.png

    January 2022 opens up with a continuation of the zonality that ended 2021 but it doesn't last all that long before high pressure moves in to cut off the Atlantic.

    image.thumb.png.8779cb9b24a1572ed23b0c96068ec684.png

    We get a block to the east that causes a battleground to set up with lows and fronts stalling over the UK

    image.thumb.png.e92c0a17c13efb583897d84783eb59b3.png

    The block does win out here but that huge low in the Atlantic looks like trouble.

    image.thumb.png.f54668ee999aba2f207a8f33c2682785.png

    The blocking just persists and eventually the Azores high comes to play as well and joins forces with the block to the east.

    image.thumb.png.ec9547e3e065591a07dfc4a517f4dd30.pngimage.thumb.png.fb453ee87692628b8adcc3d0342beb70.png

    Another attempt by the Atlantic here appears to be struggling to make any headway into the UK as the lows just slides SE into Europe.

    image.thumb.png.60d4ffb21d22a3b8d5742cbb9c1e801b.pngimage.thumb.png.4cbe6b4ccbac2ada8788feb21caaf7a5.png

    After this the blocking high sets up to the NW of the UK. This keeps us in a generally colder pattern and generally settled too.

    Overall January 2022 stats based on this run

    January    26/08/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies
    Av Max          4.58C                    Max          7.37C               -2.79C
    Av Min           2.32C                    Min           1.95C               +0.37C          0 Ice Days
    Av Mean        3.45C                    Mean       4.66C                -1.21C

    With this particular run January 2022 turns out to be a colder than average month despite the mild zonalty that starts off the month. This is generally thanks to the anticyclonic nature of this month that sees daytime temperatures really held back due to a lack of mild air sources once the Atlantic gets cut off and several slider low pressure events that could be snow makers. Overall this run produces a colder than average January 2022 with a mean CET of 3.45C which is -1.21C below the 1991-2020 mean. This isn't as cold as the run from a week ago which produced a 1.95C mean which was -2.71C below the 1991-2020 mean. That run was always going to take some beating so to get a less cold outcome isn't that unexpected.

    February 2022

    If you think December 2021 and January 2022 were cold months overall just you feast your eyes upon these February 2022 charts from this particular run.

    image.thumb.png.ca43e2e4b68c6d1ff4834ab5b55577b0.pngimage.thumb.png.1ac5dd7bab7b3329f7225fa4a8a7a236.pngimage.thumb.png.7ad6dbd527bec6074fdd929d63c71f62.png

    February 2022 really continues the theme from the end of January 2022 to open the month with cold anticyclonic weather but by the 3rd chart here look at that cold pool to the east. The high is also starting to push over towards the east as well. What will happen next. Mild southerlies, zonality or the floodgates opened to the east?

    image.thumb.png.192ba2b2b3a9f2f6bfe6ce4629b79634.png

    The first attempt to bring in severe cold fails as the high drops down to our south and we get a very brief period of westerlies but this is VERY brief as you will see in a moment.

    image.thumb.png.98bb17b222cf1c0922bf20432889cf8b.png

    By the 12th we open up the Arctic floodgates and this starts off the coldest overall period of the winter.

    image.thumb.png.1d826d3a49c92a3de128b70fa5a87515.png

    A battleground temporarily sets up here with a snow event likely to be taking place here but which way will this battle go with a block getting going to our NE as well as the Azores high down to the SW.

    image.thumb.png.fd785ec7654499c4d5ecb233f3ba8840.pngimage.thumb.png.3f452b7a678e54e73f6fec59ff8b3d89.pngimage.thumb.png.c94f0fcec31daae91ccb0dd700c6fd63.png

    image.thumb.png.fc1f63e4a6029173599fc908648dedee.png

    Basically February 2022 on this run turns very cold with easterlies to finish out the month with snow a real possibility here.

    Overall February 2022 stats based on this run

    February26/08/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies
    Av Max          3.00C                  Max          7.92C               -4.92C
    Av Min           -0.14C                 Min          1.85C                -1.99C            2 Ice Days
    Av Mean       1.43C                   Mean       4.89C                -3.46C

    With this particular run February 2022 turns out to be a very cold month overall with the cold anticyclonic weather at the start and those very cold easterlies at the end and with the rest of the month cooler than average at best, even in the brief zonal period around the 10th this isn't anything like enough to offset the colder spells. February 2022 on this run came out with a mean CET of 1.43C which is -3.46C below the 1991-2020 mean. This is a much colder February 2022 compared with the one from a week ago which was a mean of 3.50C which was only -1.39C below the 1991-2020 mean so a big step in the colder direction.

    March 2022

    After the very cold February 2022 can March do anything to better that. 

    image.thumb.png.1d12ac6765ad7a2c4cc6324a35ea5a82.pngimage.thumb.png.948ea75c1a74bdc081f42ce517cd7f5b.png

    March 2022 opens up in a cold pattern with easterlies dominating and low temperatures as well

    image.thumb.png.2982e9b2ccfc9159a061b1dbe9500b28.pngimage.thumb.png.f1d47cfa042ce59ef85d07f15de0c687.png

    After this we go slack and anticyclonic but with cold air in place the temperatures remain low for the time of year

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    Just when you think winter could be over, what's this? A nice March beasterly comes to strike back and lowers temperatures even more. This period is the coldest part of the month.

    image.thumb.png.64929e2b567f65172d3c775b381fea82.pngimage.thumb.png.7a4d0627f36613d22751929d6eeac3f6.pngimage.thumb.png.7798ea7e8e8ad45806d5aa0b914a88bd.png

    However that is the last of the cold as the last few days of March 2022 see spring arrive and zonality resumes for the first time in a long while.

    Overall March 2022 stats based on this run

    March    26/08/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies
    Av Max          5.61C                  Max          10.39C             -4.78C
    Av Min           2.23C                  Min           3.08C               -0.85C             0 Ice Days
    Av Mean        3.92C                  Mean        6.74C              -2.82C

    March 2022 on this run is also a colder than average month too and at a mean of 3.92C which is -2.82C below the 1991-2020 mean then overall cold. This mean could have been even lower if it were not for the last few days of the month that sees temperatures rise quite a bit, Generally a wintery march here with snow a threat especially at the start of the month as well as in the final beasterly that strikes mid month. This turned out to be a colder march than a week ago as that run produced a mean of 4.26C which was only -2.48C below the 1991-2020 mean.

    OVERALL WINTER 2021/2022 SUMMARY BASED ON 02/09/2021 00z CFS 9 MONTHLY RUN

    Overall    26/08/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies
    Av Max          4.43C                  Max          8.35C                -3.92C
    Av Min           1.68C                  Min           2.28C                -0.60C            7 Ice Days Overall
    Av Mean        3.05C                  Mean       5.32C                 -2.27C

    Overall we came out here with a mean CET of 3.05C for the entire December 2021 to March 2022 period which is -2.27C below the long term 1991-2020 mean for this period so generally CFS has gone for a colder winter period again like a week ago. The previous run a week ago came back with 3.62C which was -1.70C below the 1991-2020 mean so we have seen an overall upgrade to the colder signal here by -0.57C so a decent shift in the colder direction.

    We seem to be seeing a pattern emerging here already with colder signals and northern blocking featuring quite a bit in several of the CFS 9 monthly runs, not just the ones I am featuring each week at present. Is this a sign or is everything going to spoil itself and we end up with a 2019/2020 situation of the zonality and polar vortex of doom. I certainly hope not.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Ice days, clear skies, blizzards. Summer: cool and dry
  • Location: Manchester

    Predicting winters are always fun, so here's my take on Winter 2021/22.

    December: Cool start with regular frosts for around two weeks. A gradual shift to milder westerlies around Christmas time though only temporary. Then a quick shift to cold in the final days of December. Rainfall and temperature will be below average. Expecting a CET around 3.9C to 4.5C.

    January will be colder than December with regular snowfalls, hard frosts and ice days. Think we will see our first nationwide snowfall in the first week. A slow transition to average conditions with it being mostly dry. Expecting a CET around 3.5C to 4.0C

    February will start off mild but will gradually turn colder with a biting easterly wind bringing over the -15C isotherm (similar to 2018). The setup will be largely blocked void of any westerlies. The month as a whole will be the coldest of the winter with frequent snow showers and ice days. The cold will last until the final week when milder conditions raise temps up to the mid teens thawing any snow or ice. Average precip and temperature below average. Expecting a CET of 2.0C to 2.5C. 

    Overall, I feel like winter 2021/22 will be largely cold and snowy (an upgrade to 2020/21). Coldest winter for some time 

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    Posted
  • Location: Prague, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Prague, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

    Have a feeling there will be several colder than average/possibly snowy spells this winter. But also a lengthy mild, dry period too. Can’t decide when these might happen, though I reckon the cold will come early and late winter will be very mild.

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

    Have a feeling there will be several colder than average/possibly snowy spells this winter. But also a lengthy mild, dry period too. Can’t decide when these might happen, though I reckon the cold will come early and late winter will be very mild.

    I'm going with that prediction also. A cold or average to cold December, very cold first half of January, followed by average temps, but February will be mild and dry.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 20c. Also love a good thunderstorm!
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

    Obviously a lot can happen between now and early winter but I agree it's good fun to ponder!

    I'm going to be boring but I too think we'll be in for a below average winter temperature wise with the bulk of the cold being in the first half with a mild second half bringing a timely start to Spring. I'm also going dry. Something like 2008/09.

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    Posted
  • Location: Islington
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing cold snowy winters & unsettled summers.
  • Location: Islington

    Of course no one can know but I do think it’s fun having a guess, whether it’s based on random hunches or analogues. Here’s my punt:

     

    Dec. 2021: Very cold, the coldest since 2010, very dull and very dry, with the little precipitation that falls coming as snow. A totally seasonably festive month with a distinct lack of the gross mild stuff.

     

    Jan. 2022: Cooler than average but not as much as December. Much wetter with spells of more Atlantic driven weather in the first half of the month, though giving Scotland/border counties frontal snowfall. Turning colder in the second-half of the month as the blocking patterns start to entrench themselves once again. A wet but cold January. 

     

    Feb. 2022: Very cold, the coldest since either 1991 or 1986. Persistent spells of cold and snow from the N/E. Historic blizzards that cripple the country and temperatures dropping below -20. A coldies delight. 

     

    Mar. 2022: Cool and exceptionally wet. Similar to 1947, the cold is eroded away by more Atlantic driven weather which causes major snowmelt. Then the rest of the month features low pressure with alternating airmasses. 

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