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Can anyone explain what is driving such an off-the-scale Greenland high in GFS models on Saturday night. The contours are so close together it’s difficult to read them but it looks like pressure could reach 1110 - which I think is beyond all previous records.

what is going on? Is model wrong? Is there something exceptional happening?

 

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20210402/12/39/h850t850eu.png

 

 

 

9F7F6C36-2D3E-44B8-960C-973C05AEFA71.png

Edited by MatthewCockburn
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    13 hours ago, MatthewCockburn said:

    Can anyone explain what is driving such an off-the-scale Greenland high in GFS models on Saturday night. The contours are so close together it’s difficult to read them but it looks like pressure could reach 1110 - which I think is beyond all previous records.

    what is going on? Is model wrong? Is there something exceptional happening?

     

    https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20210402/12/39/h850t850eu.png

     

     

     

    9F7F6C36-2D3E-44B8-960C-973C05AEFA71.png

     

    Pressure modelling over the Greenland plateau has always been a problem

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  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    As per above, Greenland is a plateau and so the pressure at sea level is extrapolated. So when people talk about 1080mb Greenland highs (sometimes in the model thread) they're talking nonsense.

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    Posted (edited)
    2 hours ago, Relativistic said:

    As per above, Greenland is a plateau and so the pressure at sea level is extrapolated. So when people talk about 1080mb Greenland highs (sometimes in the model thread) they're talking nonsense.

    Point taken about how meaningful it is to extrapolate high altitude surface  pressures to sea level. Nonetheless it does look as though actual pressure measurements will be very high - currently 1048 mb and rising at 2mb per 3 hours. Not sure what the record high for Greenland is but Saturday-Sunday could surely get close.

    https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&SI=mph&CEL=C&WMO=04211&TIME=std&CONT=euro&R=310&LEVEL=140&REGION=0004&LAND=__&ART=luftdruck&NOREGION=0&PLZ=&PLZN=&SORT=__&TEMP=___&WETTER=__&&TYP=__&SEITE=0

     

    Edited by MatthewCockburn
    Pressure change rate per 3 hours
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