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Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Each run from the ukv today has moved the risk further and further west!!!gona be a nail biter this one!!

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    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight

    Yup, a massive westwards shift from the UKV. You can bet it'll go eastwards again on the next run too! 

    Models do us no good in the run up to these events with so much shifting around, but I can't help myself either way 🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    37 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    We don't need CAPE across the UK, these are imports, not home grown thunderstorms.

    That's why I mentioned mixed layer- you're going to need "some"

    Probably better to look at the most unstable for elevated stuff, I dunno?!

    viewimage.thumb.png.3019fca0cea32f2e266a25f58bcb2f5d.png

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    Posted
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are

    To be honest dont think anyone knows at the mo so many variations between models. First its eastward shift now it's a sort of westward shift,spose we will see what unfolds. What ever happens if some could get some decent pics or videos of any storm action that does occur for us that dont see anything please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
    43 minutes ago, camturbo said:

    To be honest dont think anyone knows at the mo so many variations between models. First its eastward shift now it's a sort of westward shift,spose we will see what unfolds. What ever happens if some could get some decent pics or videos of any storm action that does occur for us that dont see anything please.

    Given half a chance I will literally drown you in photos of every moment :old_excitement_emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
    12 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

    Given half a chance I will literally drown you in photos of every moment :old_excitement_emoji:

    No need to go that far lol. Just a decent shelf cloud if there is one or some LG's lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
    1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    UKV 15z run is on steroids.

    ukv.thumb.png.a3936b0eed38b704e89743932876cb8a.pngFri.thumb.png.5bfc928cda15444e1c8d84d63c7083bb.png

    Love it!!!!!

    CFC6B693-4A21-44CD-899D-4B8F55BD2497.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol

    UKV 18z very closely resembles its 15z run.

    ukv1.thumb.png.8eda20580b269204cd5cab97a143d388.pngukv2.thumb.png.9239e514476c605892785b8c5feec55e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
    4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    UKV 18z very closely resembles its 15z run.

    ukv1.thumb.png.8eda20580b269204cd5cab97a143d388.pngukv2.thumb.png.9239e514476c605892785b8c5feec55e.png

    Wow! I don’t have access to UKV but that looks like a significant westward shift - excellent! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
    1 minute ago, Harry said:

    Wow! I don’t have access to UKV but that looks like a significant westward shift - excellent! 

    Hopefully not TOO far west, don’t want a 21st April 2018 type scenario where everything is just out of range for Sussex…

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    Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
    2 minutes ago, Harry said:

    Wow! I don’t have access to UKV but that looks like a significant westward shift - excellent! 

    Obviously all models struggle with elevated convection, but the UKV should have debatably the best capabilities of all hi-res models to simulate the developments tomorrow night and it gives me confidence since its 18z and 15z run are consistent.

    Both runs show a signature MCS, remarkable stuff really.

    Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    16 minutes ago, Harry said:

    Wow! I don’t have access to UKV but that looks like a significant westward shift - excellent! 

    Perhaps I can introduce you:

     

    Edited by Mapantz
    Fixed Link - Thanks Lance
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    Posted
  • Location: Witney, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms!
  • Location: Witney, Oxon

    The excitement in this thread usually eclipses the actual event!

    There will be some excited radar watching from around 6pm onwards. I am expecting some precipitation but little in the way of lightning this far West.

    Edited by Vestan
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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

    It’s the first situation this year where storms are likely to explode as the plume approaches then makes landfall along the South coast.

    Await the ‘nothing is happening/bust’ posts then realisation of how these things develop very rapidly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hastings
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Hastings

    I'll be down at Bottle Alley with the cameras at some point. A good 500 metre sheltered under promenade west of Hastings Pier, ideal for filming and a view right across to Eastbourne. Often it mellows out as it gets near us but we'll see. Message me if you plan to be down there at some point over the period we expect thunderstorms!

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    Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
    14 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    UKV 18z very closely resembles its 15z run.

    ukv1.thumb.png.8eda20580b269204cd5cab97a143d388.pngukv2.thumb.png.9239e514476c605892785b8c5feec55e.png

    Also latest ICON 18z shows a slight westward shift compared to its 12z run. I'm wondering if the models are beginning to pick up on developments over Iberia which for whatever reason is leading to a westward shift.

    Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    11 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    UKV 18z very closely resembles its 15z run.

    ukv1.thumb.png.8eda20580b269204cd5cab97a143d388.pngukv2.thumb.png.9239e514476c605892785b8c5feec55e.png

    I really wish we could see the ensembles, my suspicion is that it's on the far western side of the envelope, and continues to be further west than just about all other models. 

     A few random AROME ensemble members however shows the huge range of possibilities that are still on the table, but very limited support for the UKV.

    1893184814_Screenshot2021-06-15at21_58_41.thumb.png.6bc0ff1d4962f38d3230372583da1d82.png552883141_Screenshot2021-06-15at21_58_50.thumb.png.acb035af6d70b527970edadc6a353bd9.png1524137224_Screenshot2021-06-15at21_59_02.thumb.png.17f75bd2c657ca160262a45fd5cf85d8.png54799042_Screenshot2021-06-15at21_59_10.thumb.png.ee50e8411631a69049920dd8e9564b7a.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

    Also latest ICON 18z shows a slight westward shift compared to its 12z run.

    I think its time to take this ukv output seriously!thats 2 runs in a row now that look identical!!what a result for me in the midlands if the ukv comes off!!!i actually thought that was it for us here in terms of lightning and thunder but ukv gives us midlanders the worse of it!!!👊

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    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
    11 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Perhaps I can introduce you:

    WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

     

    Wrong link - that takes me to the 'come join Radar Extra' details page (unless of course that's what you meant to do 😄 )

    Here's the link I've been using since the charts were made free: 

     

    Edited by Lance M
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    Posted
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
  • Weather Preferences: Summer - Storms Winter - Blizzards
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
    Just now, sheikhy said:

    I think its time to take this ukv output seriously!thats 2 runs in a row now that look identical!!what a result for me in the midlands if the ukv comes off!!!i actually thought that was it for us here in terms of lightning and thunder but ukv gives us midlanders the worse of it!!!👊

    looks a nice MCS at 4am! tempted to drive from Manchester to get some pics of this beast!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    Just now, ItIsGee said:

    looks a nice MCS at 4am! tempted to drive from Manchester to get some pics of this beast!

    Yeh seems to come at the perfect time as well if its nightime lightning you love!!👊

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