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Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Hmm, was sort of expecting to wake up and see storms flashing away across the SW on the lightning detectors, not a single strike anywhere and just some drizzly showers. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Mellow autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales

    Morning everyone. 😊
    From an IMBY perspective just looking at these charts from the 00z run I have a feel that everything will be just too far south for me personally. But hey, the weather will do, what the weather will do! Lol 😄
    As always, good luck to everyone today, and lets hope its a good and thundery one. 😁🌩️⛈️

    ukcapeli (10).png

    ukcapeli (11).png

    ukcapeli (12).png

    ukcapeli (13).png

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    2 hours ago, Alderc said:

    Hmm, was sort of expecting to wake up and see storms flashing away across the SW on the lightning detectors, not a single strike anywhere and just some drizzly showers. 

    Wouldn’t worry too much, at least valuable convective energy isn’t being eaten up ahead of the day. Storm enthusiasts in the US often complain if an early storm is eating up all the juice on a promising day!

    Nobody knows what the weather and radar may churn out. Now casting is the best and only real way. You may get lucky. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
    WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

    Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

     

    Interesting day to come.

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Lighting and sunshine
  • Location: London
    1 hour ago, staplehurst said:

    If you ever wanted an example of how difficult elevated thunderstorm forecasting is, here's the past 4 runs of the EURO4. Hence it is near impossible to say if X location will see a thunderstorm in this setup, realistically you have to treat it fairly broad brush and not take an individual model/run literally because just a subtle difference aloft can make a big difference as to whether a thunderstorm develops or not...

    Screen Shot 2021-06-02 at 07.51.02.png

    Haha, I noticed today's slight zone went  a bit flaccid overnight!  More fun to lower expectations than the other way round

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

    Ah, lovely....

    20210602_092220.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    Posted (edited)
    25 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    Wouldn’t worry too much, at least valuable convective energy isn’t being eaten up ahead of the day. Storm enthusiasts in the US often complain if an early storm is eating up all the juice on a promising day!

    Nobody knows what the weather and radar may churn out. Now casting is the best and only real way. You may get lucky. 

    For further north I’d agree but the soundings look disappointing, skinny CAPE over the south west and pretty moist so updrafts are unlikely to be strong. Just the odd sferics currently and radar looking more like a ‘wet mess’ than showing sharp returns. It’s already dead in the water for the south west I suspect. 

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Torquay, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms!
  • Location: Torquay, Devon
    4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    For further north I’d agree but the soundings look disappointing, skinny CAPE over the south west and pretty moist so updrafts are unlikely to be strong. Just the odd sferics currently and radar looking more like a ‘wet mess’ than showing sharp returns. It’s already dead in the water for the south west I suspect. 

    Yep. It's a soggy mess this morning. Back to the No Storms Club we go... The grockles will be happy, I guess.

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    Posted
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Work: Wallingford Home: Keynsham, Bristol

    Unfortunately the magnitude of ML-CAPE just seemed too low to suggest of anything particularly thundery last night. However, an unexpected change in events for this evening as Wales into W Midlands are at risk of seeing some fairly active TSs into the evening.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    Posted (edited)
    11 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    Unfortunately the magnitude of ML-CAPE just seemed too low to suggest of anything particularly thundery last night. However, an unexpected change in events for this evening as Wales into W Midlands are at risk of seeing some fairly active TSs into the evening.

    Is that a F F S I can hear from the SE (had to space out the letters as a filter seemed to dislike it it and replaced it with abc) LOL

    Edited by Gordon Webb
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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    WRF more interested in something in my location this evening now. 400–500 J CAPE here and close to 1000 only 30 miles to my south. Wish flow was a bit stronger though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    The Meto warning zone in the SW has been a complete fail. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    I suspect trigger temperatures will be hit this afternoon for surface-based convection. It’s already 22°C here and we reached 24.1 yesterday. There will be some surprises. Nowcast is the word.

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    It's going to be very difficult to forecast storms today as per the earlier comments. It is nice to have a chance of something though, not to mention sunshine and temperatures into the mid 20s for those of us who are getting it. There could be some surprises later I feel, possibly the West Midlands into Wales the best place for seeing a storm this afternoon - Birmingham west across Shropshire, Worcestershire and into Wales. Later on developments could occur further east from NW of London towards Birmingham and moving north through the East Midlands but I am unsure of how much thunder would occur here with CAPE somewhat lower than further west. An evolving situation though and a day for watching the skies and radars I think.

    Still signs of something into the south-east during the early part of Friday too, although that could remain over the near continent.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
    Just now, Supacell said:

    It's going to be very difficult to forecast storms today as per the earlier comments. It is nice to have a chance of something though, not to mention sunshine and temperatures into the mid 20s for those of us who are getting it. There could be some surprises later I feel, possibly the West Midlands into Wales the best place for seeing a storm this afternoon - Birmingham west across Shropshire, Worcestershire and into Wales. Later on developments could occur further east from NW of London towards Birmingham and moving north through the East Midlands but I am unsure of how much thunder would occur here with CAPE somewhat lower than further west. An evolving situation though and a day for watching the skies and radars I think.

    Still signs of something into the south-east during the early part of Friday too, although that could remain over the near continent.

     

    going to be a day of watching sat 24 for cloud development then 🙂 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Nothing showing as of yet   but i expected storms to really start to get going this afternoon into the evening   very warm feel today  and wall to wall sunshine which should help   currently 22.2c

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    Posted
  • Location: Bridgwater, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bridgwater, Somerset

    Very warm and humid here. Dark clouds all around me, but I feel like the risk of thunderstorms is going to be further north than where I am.

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
    Posted (edited)

    Pretty much blue sky, just a few wispy clouds about here and very warm here approaching 23c, with humidity on the increase too. Good signs. 

    Edited by Sparkiee storm
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    Just now, Sparkiee storm said:

    Pretty much blue sky, just a few wispy clouds about and here and very warm here approaching 23c, with humidity on the increase too. Good signs. 

    Yep  Might see a few claps later on Sparkiee    fingers crossed

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    Posted
  • Location: Southampton
  • Weather Preferences: storms lightning thunder
  • Location: Southampton
    2 minutes ago, amybonnie98 said:

    Funky clouds in Southampton (imo)

    IMG_20210602_112337.jpg

    IMG_20210602_112331.jpg

    I can see them from my back garden funky but look awesome 

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