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Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Day 1 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 30 Apr 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sat 01 May 2021

    ISSUED 21:27 UTC Thu 29 Apr 2021

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Broad upper troughing continues to cover much of northern and western Europe on Friday, with the cold pocket over Ireland on Thursday having migrated to England/Wales for Friday. Consequently a reversal of fortunes is expected, with a deeper convective layer in England/Wales and more capping in Ireland resulting in shallower convection here (relative to the previous day). Either way, showers will become more numerous through the day in response to diurnal heating and particularly focussed in areas where low-level convergence is maximised (i.e. just inland from the coast) and dewpoints remain mostly above 0C. This means there could be a relative minima in activity over parts of the Midlands down to the northern Home Counties, although even here a few showers may be possible. 

    For the most part, despite 200-400 J/kg CAPE shear will be rather weak beneath the upper low, but on the forward side slightly stronger flow aloft will exist over SE England - albeit most of this will be above the cloud-bearing layer, but could perhaps aid a little with venting. Generally pulse-type convection is expected, and so any lightning will tend to be short-lived/isolated per individual cells (risk in any one location around 10-15%, greatest over S Wales / West Country / SW England). Small hail is likely in several showers (potentially carpeting roads in hail and causing locally icy conditions), and the slack surface flow with enhanced convergence could encourage a couple of funnel clouds to develop.

    http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2021-04-30

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Mellow autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales

    Morning everyone. 😊

    Although nothing went ‘bang’ around here yesterday we did have a pretty impressive looking sky last night... And we had quite a bit of hail/graupel from it. 😁 (Top photo)

    Infact, as I type this, it once more looks like we’ve got some convection going on the other side of the mountains! (Bottom photo) 😁

    Hopefully it won’t be too long until the 2021 storm season gets underway properly. 😊🤞🌩️⛈️

    DFF2A5FC-F6C5-434B-B5CB-33A4243C69B7.jpeg

    EBB3370E-2228-46E5-9240-BF6996855F8C.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight

    A few nice skyskapes around today, but not a drop of rain here, whereas other parts of Hampshire have had a fair bit! A mere taster for the rest of the season. 
     

    Hints of a plume on the last couple of goofus runs, but it's 9 days away. If the 12z and 18z come up with it too, it might be worth entertaining!

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    56 minutes ago, Lance M said:

    A few nice skyskapes around today, but not a drop of rain here, whereas other parts of Hampshire have had a fair bit! A mere taster for the rest of the season. 
     

    Hints of a plume on the last couple of goofus runs, but it's 9 days away. If the 12z and 18z come up with it too, it might be worth entertaining!

    Loads of rain here looks like there could be more as well. 

     

    IMG_20210430_175126.jpg

    IMG_20210430_175146.jpg

    Edit

    Some quick growth, turned the Evaluation down to make it easier to see. 

     

    IMG_20210430_180420.jpg

    IMG_20210430_180409.jpg

    Edited by Eagle Eye
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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

    Looking good on Mr Pantz stream for the next 10 mins or so

    WAREHAMWX.CO.UK

    Live weather conditions in Wareham, Dorset. WXSIM forecasts. Weather information includes: temperature, wind, rain, solar, pressure, air quality, updated every 4 seconds.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    More rowers going up and I think it's hailing here now, finally a string of Connective says this Year. 

    IMG_20210501_144850.thumb.jpg.e326ca3bd72005b53fee76c348eaf175.jpg

    IMG_20210501_144848.thumb.jpg.1f8f61d4fc45b7821df38ffef8595738.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    Posted (edited)

    Possibly some of the most photogenic clouds of the Year today. 

    IMG_20210501_174257.jpg

    IMG_20210501_174310.jpg

    IMG_20210501_174341.jpg

    IMG_20210501_174650.jpg

    Edited by Eagle Eye
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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    This storm keeps on giving. 

    IMG_20210501_175434.jpg

    IMG_20210501_175434.jpg

    IMG_20210501_175419.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight

    It's worth cautiously mentioning that the Euro now wants to stall next weekend's low pressure system to the SW, and even develops night-time thunderstorms along a cold front on Saturday night. Not worth trying to pin down any details at this stage as they'll probably disappear on the next run!

    Overall, with both the GEM and the ECM now stalling the low, it gives potential for at least something thundery arriving from the South, let's hope it's a model trend that continues and that GFS gets interested soon too.

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

    I think this is the tower going up over Sheffield....

    20210502_103301.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Big rain drops from a massive tower at the moment feels like April showers. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m

    Well, what an utterly boring April that was! Fingers crossed for an active summer ⛈️🌩️

    Just watched this little shower bubble up right Infront of my eyes 

    IMG_20210502_123159.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
    5 hours ago, ChezWeather said:

    Well, what an utterly boring April that was! Fingers crossed for an active summer ⛈️🌩️

    Just watched this little shower bubble up right Infront of my eyes 

    IMG_20210502_123159.jpg

    It really has been a boring April. Having said that I didn't really see anything of note last year until June and it ended up a great year for me and storm chasing. So yeah, definitely, fingers crossed things ramp up soon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    1 minute ago, Supacell said:

    It really has been a boring April. Having said that I didn't really see anything of note last year until June and it ended up a great year for me and storm chasing. So yeah, definitely, fingers crossed things ramp up soon.

    Seems the British weather has been pushed back by a month so i'm not surprised because we're getting April showers looking at this from earlier got hit by one of them.

    image.thumb.png.deedf5a41969dae192b86257a506b7f9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Day 1 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 03 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Tue 04 May 2021

    ISSUED 07:14 UTC Mon 03 May 2021

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    A deep but slowly filling surface low will slide eastwards across the northern portions of Ireland during Monday afternoon and evening. Ahead of the low centre, a shield of frontal precipitation will affect many parts of the UK/Ireland during daylight hours, clearing Northern Ireland by early afternoon. This provides a window of just a few hours, before the wrap-around occlusion quickly returns from the west, with cloud clearance and surface heating for deep convection to develop over parts of Northern Ireland (and later NW England), perhaps also feeding into SW Scotland - with additional forcing from the leading edge of a marked dry intrusion aloft. If sufficient surface heating occurs and deep convection is able to develop, the strongly-sheared environment will likely aid updraft/downdraft separation and pose the threat of 50-55mph gusts and hail. Confidence is not particularly high, not least over how deep/shallow convection may be, and so have hesitantly issued a low-end SLGT.

    Some line segments will also be possible along the cold front during the afternoon and evening hours, from Ireland into western Britain, capable of producing squally winds with additional development over parts of the Midlands and eastern England later in the day perhaps - although the risk of lightning with these features is fairly low. Overnight, deep convection/heavy showers will develop near northern and western Scotland into northwest Ireland as a cold airmass returns from the north once again, overspreading SSTs.

    http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2021-05-03

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but despise Winter
  • Location: Kent,Ashford

    was expecting to wake up with raining pounding outside but just partly cloudy skies, checked the radar seeing how close the rain was but actually it all north to me. There does seem to be a hook going towards the southwest which is possibly the rain that is predicted to come at 5pm but right now its just like yesterday just drier. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

    Line of convective activity looks likely for tomorrow with convergence and a trough, I think the heaviest of the precip will be around the Pennines but with the cold air coming in I would expect hail pretty much anywhere along it animucw0.thumb.gif.eec8085c652d4ef092966bbd7a1db420.gifanimdil4.thumb.gif.ff18a3d6b9c84c00739e8d1eaa111b0e.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Lighting and sunshine
  • Location: London

    No sniff of lightning but some wind gusts are a tad severe. South London

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    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    Two rumbles of thunder here heard around 8:15pm, followed by torrential rain behind the squall line that crossed over a hour ago.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
    1 minute ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

    Two rumbles of thunder here heard around 8:15pm, followed by torrential rain behind the squall line that crossed over a hour ago.

    Yep, few strikes picked up on the Netweather ATD 

    image.thumb.png.f8344a1fe8270bf61db742c9a36b894d.png

    Suspect it will head just North of me if it survives across the hills 

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    Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield

    Two flashes of lightning followed by a loud crack of thunder, produced heavy hail and rain shower.  Skies are black and mini torrents running down the road.  A bit of excitement.

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