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Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    I was noticing that double wave of activity mentioned on the WRF this morning, was rather interesting. Still quite a bit of CAPE available around and for a while after sunset at my location.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    Posted (edited)

    Dans forecast has been updated again

    not going to post it all again as the only difference I see is this line

    Portions of the West Midlands / east Wales could also experience marginally-severe wind gusts

    Edited by Gordon Webb
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    Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
    58 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

    wonder what those in the SE are thinking with Dans forecast with this line

    Scattered thunderstorms are likely across parts of Wales, the Midlands and East Anglia, these migrating generally northwestwards into northern England

    I think I can hear it now : not this again hope this isn't the pattern for the next 3 months or so

    well think on the bright side you can go chasing from Monday

    I think this every year, Storms to the north. What I'd do to have a good old fashioned surface based storm. Oh well a sunny day beckons for me.

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    Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
    9 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

    ‘North of the M4’ is what Southerners hate to hear in both winter and summer 😅

    And people say the south get all the storms, it's a load of nonsense 😂

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    18 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

    ‘North of the M4’ is what Southerners hate to hear in both winter and summer 😅

    Now I walk the school run it's perfect lol. Nice warm sunny day, no need to worry about downpours.

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    Posted
  • Location: Armthorpe (South Yorkshire)
  • Location: Armthorpe (South Yorkshire)
    3 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

    largethumb.thumb.png.2363e17b059975282378d1394b89d8df.png

    Day 1 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 11 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 12 May 2021

     

    ISSUED 18:35 UTC Mon 10 May 2021

     

    ISSUED BY: Dan

     

    Upper trough will sharpen and become increasingly negatively-tilted as it lifts northwards across England and Wales on Tuesday. The net result is increasing PVA/divergence on the forward flank of this feature, aiding broad lift/ascent. Scattered showers will already be present across parts of SW England and Wales initially, and diurnal heating inland will yield 300-600 J/kg CAPE with showers become more numerous with time through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are likely across parts of Wales, the Midlands and East Anglia, these migrating generally northwestwards into northern England. Upscale growth seems likely into an area of showery rain over northern England and southern Scotland by the evening hours, and this may result in a gradual decline in lightning activity as a result (aside from isolated pockets such as on the western flank into SW Scotland etc). Particular attention is given to Yorks/Lincs/Derbys/Notts/Leics which, combined with 30-40kts bulk shear, will likely see increasing low-level shear as surface winds back and strengthen through the afternoon. This could encourage updrafts to rotate, presenting the risk of an isolated tornado and/or wind gusts to 40-50mph. However, some concerns about cloud amounts/moist profiles exist.

     

    Further areas of showery rain associated with a wrap-around occlusion will also move into SW England, although this could tend to fragment and turn more convective through the afternoon/evening hours (especially south Wales / West Country). Within this area convergence-driven funnel clouds/weak tornado may be possible. Showery rain will also affect southern Ireland, but parts of Munster could see some cloud breaks and the chance for heavy showers / isolated lightning in the afternoon hours. Also monitoring a corridor from northern Leinster to western Ulster but forecast profiles are very dry with weak shear so it seems likely any convection may struggle to be sustained for any length of time. Deeper convection and isolated lightning strikes will also be possible in the afternoon/early evening over Caithness/Sutherland. 

     

    Most activity will weaken or merge into areas of showery rain through the evening/night, but a few lightning strikes may be possible for a time over the north Midlands/southern Northern England, while elevated convection may feed into Aberdeenshire and environs with a risk of a few isolated lightning strikes.

    Met weather's outlook for today.

     

     

    Looking good for me where I live in Doncaster 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but despise Winter
  • Location: Kent,Ashford

    Looks like here it will be a mix of cloudscapes and sunshine. That's good enough for me to be happy seeing bubbly cumulus clouds whilst feeling warmth 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    THUNDERSTORM WATCH - TUES 11TH MAY 2021

    stormmap_110521.thumb.png.7013b16f30dd84ff79a0d8286e4ebdb7.png

    Issued 2021-05-11 10:03:58
    Valid: 11/05/2021 0600 - 12/05/2021 0600

    Forecast Details

    Increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough will swing E/NE across western mainland Europe, the base of the upper trough moving in across the central Mediterranean later today, while the upper part of the trough is slow moving close to the west of Britain. A moist SSW backing Sly flow will cover the UK, which will be unstable to surface heating … given cold air aloft of upper trough overspreading from the west creating steep lapse rates. Showers will become increasingly widespread and heavier through the day, as surface heating in sunny spells increases lapse rates, with increasing instability yielding 300-500 j/kg CAPE inland across Wales, SW/central/ northern England this afternoon supporting thunderstorms.

    Showers and isolated thunderstorms will become more widespread late morning and into early afternoon across Wales, southern and central England before spreading into northern and eastern England.

    Then a shortwave trough / vortex, noted on WV imagery this morning moving NE in the SW approaches, will continue to track NE across SW England, Wales and on through the Midlands towards northern and parts of eastern England through the afternoon/early evening – which will serve to enhance ascent lift and bring a second wave of perhaps more organised clusters of heavy showers/storms tracking NE through the afternoon and into the evening – bringing a risk of localised flooding. Associated dry air intrusion with this trough moving NE also enhancing instability to bring hail locally and, also, increasing potential for strong winds aloft to lower to the surface in downdrafts in any storms – with isolated 40-50mph gusts possible locally. 30% probs of a thunderstorm for Wales, SW England, Mids, N + parts of E England – where instability and strongest convection is likely to be greatest.

    Issued by: Nick Finnis

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
    Posted (edited)

    Its starting...

    image.png.bbfd85fe735231a9dc52def3fe6592e5.png

    Edited by Sparkiee storm
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    Posted
  • Location: Much Wenlock, Shropshire (181m asl)
  • Location: Much Wenlock, Shropshire (181m asl)

    Some activity in Much Wenlock, Salop - a handful of visible lightning flashes and loud thunder.

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

    The Northampton massif eventually made some low down grumbles as it went East past us. Very dark and dramatic over that direction, hoping the next set catch us directly.

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
    Posted (edited)

    ...and here she comes....

     

    With rotation..

    20210511_125124.jpg

    20210511_125518.jpg

    Edited by matty40s
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    Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms / Sunshine / Snow
  • Location: North Bristol
    Posted (edited)

    Just had a few rumbles here North of Bristol, looks like it is from the shower over the Severn Estuary heading North/NW.

     

    First of the 2021 "season". Won't be long before I'm crying at 3am in the morning when a plume of storms die down 20-30 miles before reaching me 😂

    Edited by Chris K
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    Posted
  • Location: South Devon
  • Location: South Devon

    Interesting development of the clump of showers south of Cornwall and Devon. The southern tail of it has some very intense rainfall, really kicked into gear the past 20min. Some lightning activity too.

    Impressive to see it spinning its way north and east, quite unusual!

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

    Getting a few rumbles of thunder here now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales

    Heard some thunder in SE Wales earlier, nothing showed up on Blitz although it did show up on NW radar. 

    Although the initial lines of showers and storms have moved North, quite juiced up showers seem to be developing behind them. 

    Not really sure about the slightly thundery Rain in the SW of UK, heading NE, is it likely to increasingly thundery?

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    Posted
  • Location: Lichfield, Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Decent wind (no greater than 35kts) and sunny.
  • Location: Lichfield, Staffordshire

    Just had a rumble of thunder here.

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

    It was trying it's best.. 

    20210511_130336.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL

    3 rumbles here. Right on the edge. Really bright white Anvil over the top though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield

    My radio is picking up quite frequent sferics now, most probably the cell moving north from Lichfield, an the strikes out to sea west of Liverpool.

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    Nothing here yet just sunny spells and occasional moderate showers. Hoping for something later though.

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Just driven through a cracking storm heading to work near Downham Market. That one towards Wisbech had what looked like a small wall cloud developing too. Further upstream into S/E Lincs should keep a watch out! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
    Posted (edited)

    Just a mass of rain around here so decided to come home. Not up for driving miles today. Hopefully I can get lucky here later

    Edited by Supacell
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    Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield

    Someone's having a treat N.Wales, my radio is having a fit with the activity there.

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