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  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Latest PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume is out to mid June. 2021 is 6th lowest on record, with the 3rd largest drop on record in the last 30 days. (H/T Wipneus on the ASIF). It's also:
    10,900 km³ below 1980s
    9,000 km³ below 1990s
    5,300 km³ below 2000s
    200 km³ below the 2010s average

    AllDaysMJune.thumb.jpg.5befde31e4252452dc42d08fef8087ca.jpg image.thumb.png.ce243a8a064668eefa67126a786a7cb8.png

    Regionally, volume has dropped rapidly along the Russian Arctic coast, from 10th to 5th lowest since mid May - the largest drop on record for the last 30 days. For the central Arctic, 2021 has risen from 5th to 7th lowest, and but within a near tie from 3rd to 8th lowest.

    RussianMidJune.thumb.jpg.445a19d1f61b0ab8c5e48fc44acd3e7b.jpg image.thumb.png.203396b558bff3fcfdc04b0633677ba5.png

    CABMidJune.thumb.jpg.5979e45f8d2f130be8757263448e7bd5.jpgimage.thumb.png.7171afe72c125cbbda6c2001f85d81cc.png

    Finally a comparison between this year, last year and the 3 other lowest volume years across all Arctic regions in Mid June

    ArcticRegionalMidJune.thumb.jpg.99a2c701c7878245f9ebd9eeece4df60.jpg image.thumb.png.a5c929ba27ccb769f78de2b7de87630c.png

    image.png

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    Recent changes in different sectors of the Arctic. Small losses generally balancing out the big gains in the Barents region

    Latest PIOMAS data. 2021 is 7th lowest on record, well above 2017 & nestled close to several other years. It's also: 8,600 km³ below 1980s, 7,000 km³ below 1990s, 3,600 km³ below 2000s and 100 k

    Whilst it's quiet in here, I do think there is a good chance of seeing something extraordinary in the 2nd half of the melt season and whilst I was initially optimistic about the ice, sadly the recent

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    Whilst it's quiet in here, I do think there is a good chance of seeing something extraordinary in the 2nd half of the melt season and whilst I was initially optimistic about the ice, sadly the recent trends of Siberia turning far too hot has put a big blow on the ice there. The ice pack shape is looking almost identical to 2020 and the Siberian fast ice is now giving up the ghost. 

    The ice pack in the more central areas is now looking more disperse following a recent cyclone and now we are getting strong warm southerly winds follow by potentially another deep low.

    Last year saw a largely compact ice pack totally destroyed by early retreat and very high SSTS, this year we are seeing an early retreat in the same areas but this time the ice pack is full of holes(not everywhere of course) and if any warm SSTS gets near to that disperse ice, it will surely not hold up for very long.

    Only the reasilence of the Beaufort ice may prevent record lows but unlike last year, SSTS are very high here also so bottom melt could well occur quickly here once that momentum starts. The Atlantic front is interesting, ice that looks vulnable is probably not as looks can be deceiving however if those SSTS warm significantly in the next 8 weeks, atlantification could well be quite extreme again. And there is hints the persistent and well above average high pressure over Scandinavia is going to chuck hot air over the Barants and Kara seas. It may not happen as its still in the medium term but Im not liking what I am seeing here at all. Last year, I had the hope the compact looking ice pack may of saved the day but hot SSTS overpowered that, this year I can't see much to cling onto. Maybe the cyclone will eventually go into a favourable spot and be alot slacker but in the short to medium term, it's going to be in the worst possible place imo. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Ice losses over the weekend seem to have picked up momentum have they not?

    There's some horrible looking ice in the basin a.t.m.  & either heat or tumbling of the ice via a nasty low will cause us major losses from here on in

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    13 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

    Ice losses over the weekend seem to have picked up momentum have they not?

    There's some horrible looking ice in the basin a.t.m.  & either heat or tumbling of the ice via a nasty low will cause us major losses from here on in

    Record lows now GW! The heatwave over Canada has played a part in rapid ice melt in Hudson Bay and the fast ice we had is literally collapsing like a pack of cards thanks to weather and perhaps warm rivers entering the basin? 

    The shape of the ice pack looks so similar to last year yet the weather locally over the Laptev is now going to be totally opposite to last year. I'm just hoping  this low that is near the Laptev fills in and weakens quickly and the cold pool remains over the CAB. That said, the models still want to bring ridiculas heat over the ESS and perhaps eventually the Chukchi. I still worry alot about the dispersion that is visable on the ice pack and if those warm SSTS from the Laptev starts getting near that diffused ice, it going to be quite vulnable I believe. 

    BTW I'm just almost gobsmacked what I seen across Siberia, if you told me just 2 months ago the Laptev and ESS will have record breaking melt, I would not of believed it but the weather has really not played ball here at all for the most part. I have seen very little set ups which had a period of winds coming in from the ice, for the most part, they have been coming in from a (hot) Siberia. 

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    I do fear for the ice more this year. Last year it was the Beaufort and Chukchi seas that pretty much saved and provided a shoulder to lean on for the Central Arctic pack retention. That is not the case this year. With this cyclone near the Barents and Kara seas, this could lead to accelerated fram export already. If we have more cyclones during August after another resurgence of July heat, then it could well paint quite a dire picture. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Atmospheric circulation for the coming week has a cold low pressure system over the pole which should help to slow down melt in the central part of the Arctic  for the next 7 to 10 days:

    image.thumb.png.e9b0ac7cb89aaff5b664349a7b3b2b12.png

    However, a pulse of unusually hot air from eastern Siberia could result in further melt events over the east Russia/Alaska side in particular, especially at around 4-6 days' time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    Posted (edited)
    52 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    I do fear for the ice more this year. Last year it was the Beaufort and Chukchi seas that pretty much saved and provided a shoulder to lean on for the Central Arctic pack retention. That is not the case this year. With this cyclone near the Barents and Kara seas, this could lead to accelerated fram export already. If we have more cyclones during August after another resurgence of July heat, then it could well paint quite a dire picture. 

    I don't think it provided that much protection in all honesty, the ice in the Beaufort/Chukchi fell apart at the back end of July and into August helped by quite a strong cyclone and all the heat and warmth in Barants and Siberian seas probably increased bottom melt massively for the CAB. 

    Some slight positives for this year is the Chukchi ice does look a bit more resilient than last year, the CAB has so far been quite cold and is forecast to remain that way for now and the Barants sea SSTS are just below average whereas this time last year, they would start to increase massively with plus 10 upper air temperatures hitting Svalbard! The diffuse ice does remain a question mark mind but looks can be deceiving, the ice was not diffused last year on the Atlantic side but it did look almighty thin. 

    If the SSTS in the Laptev start to remain steady or even cool down from this cyclone then maybe things will look a little better. As TWS says, there is a forecast of perhaps brief but intense heat hitting the ESS and then the Chukchi sea in around 3 days time. However if they don't cool down or it Increases even more then any cold weather over the CAB could be overridden by bottom melt. 

    Edited by Geordiesnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Just a reminder that we have 'permafrost' that holds a lot of GHG's across this region......

     

    newFile-2.jpg?width=1200&auto=webp&quali
    WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK

    It comes month after scientists called temperatures in region ‘mind-boggling’

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

    Another damaging consequence of ice melt?

    Three storms in a week”

    Rare lightning strikes in the Arctic

    Last week three successful thunderstorms hit the Arctic in a rare event which has left scientists puzzled.

    Conditions in the Arctic are not conductive to the formation of thunderstorms which need a layer of warm air beneath colder air. But with sea ice melting, adding moisture to the air, and temperature rising it could become a more regular occurrence.

    For context, just 0.5% of all lightning strikes on Earth are recorded in the Arctic with the number of strikes tripling since 2010.

    While many think of the Arctic as a cold, frigid place; heatwaves in the region have hit parts of Alaska, Siberia, and Canada drying ground vegetation which is now exposed to lightning strikes triggering wildfires.

    Not only is it drier, but with ice receding there is more ground available for vegetation to grow acting as tinder for devastating fires in remote areas.”

    (article copied from weather&radar.co.uk)

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    The recent synoptics have been relatively favourable for sea ice retention in the Arctic but there are some concerning charts showing up for 7-10 days' time, particularly on the ECMWF operational runs.

    image.thumb.png.4bf8e62769d21a6a259ae75fdd93cf20.png

    High pressure and relatively high heights setting up over the Barents/Kara region which could well decimate that surviving tongue of sea ice east of Franz Josef Land and leave the region to the north of Eurasia completely clear of sea ice.  High pressure and southerly and south-westerly winds also look set to take over across Greenland, which has so far had a modest melt season in 2021 but could see some major melt spikes in the coming fortnight.

    I know the following ECMWF chart is a long way out and subject to change, but it's scary seeing setups showing where long-draw northerlies could bring warmth!

    image.thumb.png.4fe1440cbb5fd1771cfaedc816c426b4.png

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    9 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    The recent synoptics have been relatively favourable for sea ice retention in the Arctic but there are some concerning charts showing up for 7-10 days' time, particularly on the ECMWF operational runs.

    image.thumb.png.4bf8e62769d21a6a259ae75fdd93cf20.png

    High pressure and relatively high heights setting up over the Barents/Kara region which could well decimate that surviving tongue of sea ice east of Franz Josef Land and leave the region to the north of Eurasia completely clear of sea ice.  High pressure and southerly and south-westerly winds also look set to take over across Greenland, which has so far had a modest melt season in 2021 but could see some major melt spikes in the coming fortnight.

    I know the following ECMWF chart is a long way out and subject to change, but it's scary seeing setups showing where long-draw northerlies could bring warmth!

    image.thumb.png.4fe1440cbb5fd1771cfaedc816c426b4.png

    Going to sound very pedantic TWS but at that location because of rotation of the earth, it would not be a northerly but a SE'ly(I think) but I get your point though. 

    No doubt things are going to kick off over Greenland though, Greenland ridging is going to occur and that does not usually mean good news for the Arctic either. Looking at the set ups, the best case scenario would actually be something similar to that chart as the warm/hot air would miss most of the basin and that has been a possibility but the models do seem to be agreeing the upcoming Siberian hot pool of air is on its way towards the Laptev region. Plenty of compaction winds even before then albeit not especially warm winds but will be interesting how it all plays out.

    Other thing to note, the ESS is going to get cooler winds, if only we saw such a scenario during June and maybe just maybe that fast ice may of been a bit more resilient than it was. 

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