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April 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    10 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    And warmer than all Marches. 1.6C higher than any other December. It's one thing this happening in a summer month, but winter when even 0.5C higher would be hugely significant it's all the more remarkable.

    Apologies for going so off topic here, I'm done now I promise!

    I think the consistency of the mild weather in 2015 is what made it most remarkable of all, the amount of date records that got close to or were actually beaten was very impressive.

    The summer months it seems to be get harder to get consistent warmth in this part of the world. We often get record breaking warm spells (e.g July 2019) but as a result of the continent heating up at a much more rapid pace compared to the oceans, heatwaves are a lot more plumey in nature. 

    In past years (such as 2003) you often needed high pressure over an extended period of time just to the east to get the heat to build, whereas now a 2-3 day southerly is sufficient to do the trick.

    The increasing temperature gradient compared to the nearby oceans means that low pressure often deepens to our west and heat gets brushed away quickly. Our summers are becoming wetter, more humid and heatwaves becoming sharper but often briefer as a result of the increasing temperature gradient

    If however we got synoptics from the likes of 1833 and 1976, some records would tumble by large margins but its difficult to get an extreme weather pattern to last a whole month. Can you imagine what temperatures we would get with the greater heat to tap into from the south like what we do now?

    2018 saw plenty of heat but the high pressure just lingered over us for the most part rather then give us a constant supply of warmth from the continent where the most intense heat often comes from.

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
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    I think the headline should include "exceptional frosty". We've had sunny and very dry Aprils in the past but rarely has an April has been this frosty.

    Excel April 21 CET.xlsx PDF (Summary)April 2021 Summary.pdf The cold April caught everyone out this month, in February we also had the weather models predicting a cold start to the month and

    My mean temp is currently running at 5.7C (-3.0C) to the 29th. In records back to 1980, the coldest was April 1986 with 5.8C. This month will beat that if tomorrow averages 7.1C or below. For ref

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    What we are seeing in synoptics and going forward is quite incredible.  Certainly got me really sitting up

    in the background watching this.  Gosh it was chilly today, what a switch from yesterday.  LIA footprint 

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    It may not be widely known here but Dec 2015 was equally warm relative to previous Decembers in much of North America. Both Toronto and New York City had a new record high for the month that was in the range of 1-2 C above previous marks. Unlike some other months, December records have been falling frequently in recent years. I was living in Toronto back in Dec 1982 which produced some record warmth for that time, but I believe that mean has been exceeded three times since then. Some other months of the year still hold on to record high values from much further back, for example, July 1921 and October of 1947 and 1963 (those for Toronto, NYC didn't have a particularly high average in July 1921). 

    The Dec 2015 warmth seemed to originate from a surge of warm tropical air with the northward movement of Hurricane Patricia from Mexico's Pacific coast in late October. Shortly after that low moved across the Gulf of Mexico into central North America, surges of very mild autumn temperatures began and most of Nov 2015 was very warm also (as was the case in the UK, I think the month was about third warmest November). Within a few days this pattern seemed to spread across the Atlantic and it remained in place as a persistent large-scale warming until early to mid January in North America and the end of January 2016 in Europe. It ended with a very heavy snowstorm in the northeastern states around January 23rd. 

    Dec 2015 record highs were frequent at both Toronto and NYC and timed almost the same as peaks of warmth in Britain. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    What we are seeing in synoptics and going forward is quite incredible.  Certainly got me really sitting up

    in the background watching this.  Gosh it was chilly today, what a switch from yesterday.  LIA footprint 

     

    BFTP

    How on earth do you come to that conclusion based off one colder then average month on 0.01% of the earth's surface... and on a month that looks to be one of the warmest April's globally again?

    Just because we have had one colder then average month, doesn't mean we are heading into a 'little ice age'. You say this every winter, sounds about as dubious as the arctic refreeze in your signature, along with the proposed beast from the east for Xmas 2020, where was that? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Might just scrape to 7 degrees tomorrow's update, then a fall possibly, final figure 6.9 degrees, dowanward corrections might take us to 6.6 degrees even 6.5 degrees given the run of very cold minima.. An outside chance we might end up colder than 1989. We should though see our first month at least 1 degree below 61-90 average for quite some time.. can someone quote when was the last time this happened?

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: near Edenbridge - 178ft
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters and cool, wet springs and summers.
  • Location: near Edenbridge - 178ft
    4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Might just scrape to 7 degrees tomorrow's update, then a fall possibly, final figure 6.9 degrees, dowanward corrections might take us to 6.6 degrees even 6.5 degrees given the run of very cold minima.. An outside chance we might end up colder than 1989. We should though see our first month at least 1 degree below 61-90 average for quite some time.. can someone quote when was the last time this happened?

    I believe you have to go back to Sept. 2015 which registered 12.6. IIRC the 61-90 average for September is 13.6 so a full degree below. Feb. 2018 was a very close one, at 2.9 (-0.9). Before that, Mar. 2013 at 2.7 (-3.0). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    47 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

    I believe you have to go back to Sept. 2015 which registered 12.6. IIRC the 61-90 average for September is 13.6 so a full degree below. Feb. 2018 was a very close one, at 2.9 (-0.9). Before that, Mar. 2013 at 2.7 (-3.0). 

    Thanks, we may be about to see our coldest month relative to average mean since March 2013.. but only just...quite a feat in this day and age..

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    November 2016 was 5.6C which is 1.0C below the 1961-90 average. Another frosty one that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 6.6C -2.2C below normal. Rainfall 5.7mm 10.2% of the monthly average

    Looking like 6.5C will be our finishing point unless there's a very cold day or night.

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
    9 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    Might just scrape to 7 degrees tomorrow's update, then a fall possibly, final figure 6.9 degrees, dowanward corrections might take us to 6.6 degrees even 6.5 degrees given the run of very cold minima.. An outside chance we might end up colder than 1989. We should though see our first month at least 1 degree below 61-90 average for quite some time.. can someone quote when was the last time this happened?

    Been a strange month alright,record number of air and ground frosts.April 1986 I certainly remember,much different.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    20 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

    Been a strange month alright,record number of air and ground frosts.April 1986 I certainly remember,much different.

    It's certainly been a weird one, Snowy: umpteen frosts, snow and hour after hour of strong sunshine . . . And air that's got here from the Arctic is always so much cleaner than that which comes from the Continent.👍 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    6.9c to the 28th

    0.9c below the 61 to 90 average
    1.5c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 8.8c on the 1st
    Current low this month 5.6c on the 12th, 13th, 15th & 16th

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    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Weather Preferences: In summer, a decent thunderstorm, and hot weather. In winter, snow or gale
  • Location: Basingstoke

    Forgive my ignorance, but when people talk about downward corrections, what exactly is corrected? Do we not know the exact minimum and maximum for the 4 stations that make up the CET calculation for each day on-going, and therefore should be able to calculate the exact CET ongoing throughout?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    1 hour ago, SummerShower said:

    Forgive my ignorance, but when people talk about downward corrections, what exactly is corrected? Do we not know the exact minimum and maximum for the 4 stations that make up the CET calculation for each day on-going, and therefore should be able to calculate the exact CET ongoing throughout?

    The stations used for the running mean are a different set of stations to the ones used for the final figure.

    For whatever reason, the data is not made public from the official stations until the end of the month. They use an approximation from similar stations for the running mean.

    So it's technically not a 'downward correction' at all as it's simply a figure from a different set of stations than the running mean.

    The official stations do tend to be lower overall, hence the tendency for the 'correction' to be downward. This is hard to predict though and upwards adjustments aren't completely unheard of.

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    Also worth mentioning the adjustments made to account for urban warming. This from the HadCET home page:

    "Since 1974 the data have been adjusted to allow for urban warming: currently a correction of -0.2 °C is applied to mean temperatures."

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield at 6.5C -2.3C. Rainfall 6.1mm 10.9% of the monthly average.

    6.5 will be our final figure unless the day temp only makes 7C. Still 2nd driest month on record but any slow moving shower will wreck that. Coldest April since 1989.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    EWP current estimate 12 mm (11 mm to 28th on tracker, rather low average on grid for 29th looks like it could be 1 mm). The GFS indicates 2-3 mm likely the grid average today for an outcome around 14-15 mm. (for your May thinking, 40-50 mm indicated by 9th). 

    Noted a temperature of -5 C earlier this morning at Almondbury near Manchester. Generally speaking overnight lows near zero C through the CET zone, if highs today are lower than 14 then the day likely won't bring the CET up any further. Somehow I suspect a fairly large downward adjustment coming, something like 6.9 to 6.6 perhaps. Why? Because I have 6.9 in the contest. It's that simple. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    57 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

    EWP current estimate 12 mm (11 mm to 28th on tracker, rather low average on grid for 29th looks like it could be 1 mm). The GFS indicates 2-3 mm likely the grid average today for an outcome around 14-15 mm. (for your May thinking, 40-50 mm indicated by 9th). 

    Noted a temperature of -5 C earlier this morning at Almondbury near Manchester. Generally speaking overnight lows near zero C through the CET zone, if highs today are lower than 14 then the day likely won't bring the CET up any further. Somehow I suspect a fairly large downward adjustment coming, something like 6.9 to 6.6 perhaps. Why? Because I have 6.9 in the contest. It's that simple. 

    We only just scraped 0C very briefly at Manchester Airport this morning. I've just looked up Almondbury as I'd heard the name but wasn't sure where it was exactly. Looks like just outside Huddersfield and pretty high up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

    We only just scraped 0C very briefly at Manchester Airport this morning. I've just looked up Almondbury as I'd heard the name but wasn't sure where it was exactly. Looks like just outside Huddersfield and pretty high up.

    It’s not an official station in fact I know the person we chat on twitter occasionally. He lives in a valley and around 100m does see very cold nights, infrequently coldest in country. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    15 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    It’s not an official station in fact I know the person we chat on twitter occasionally. He lives in a valley and around 100m does see very cold nights, infrequently coldest in country. 

    Interesting, thanks. At 100m around there it would definitely be prone to very cold nights with all the high ground nearby.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    6.9c to the 29th

    0.9c below the 61 to 90 average
    1.5c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 8.8c on the 1st
    Current low this month 5.6c on the 12th, 13th, 15th & 16th

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    Amazing how the anomaly has stayed the same for the 61-90 series over the last few days...it's certainly been colder than average here by day and night. I think we'll see a downward correction for the final figure at the end of the month making it one of the coldest anomaly months over the last few years.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Probably looking at March 13 in terms of 91-10 anomoly.

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