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March 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Carmagnola, Turin, Piedmont, Italy, 240 m a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/cool all over the year. Winter favourite season
  • Location: Carmagnola, Turin, Piedmont, Italy, 240 m a.s.l.

    7.3 °C and 50 mm.

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    Excel -> March 21 CET.xlsx PDF (Summary) March 21 Summary.pdf Monthly 3 players got it spot on this month. BornFromTheVoid,  February1978 and Polar Gael. 35 players were within 0.5

    Alright a few stats and graphs for March. AT 7.2C, March 2021 was the 42nd warmest in a record dating back to 1659. It was also: 0.5C above the 91-20 average 1.5C above the 61-90 average 1.

    Confirmed as 7.2C, so a 0.2C downward correction. One daily mean record set, 14.3C on the last day, the 4th time 14C or higher has been reached. Will get more stats up later.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    4.2c to the 2nd

    0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
    0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 4.2c on the 2nd
    Current low this month 4.0c on the 1st

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    21 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    A chilly start to March on the cards, nothing overly mild at all for the foreseeable despite some places seeing low teen maxima, nights will be cold and in places low-mid single digit figures. 4 degrees is notably cold for early March, but not unusual.

    It hasn't felt that way at all around here- most people are actually perceiving this as a mild start to the month here. Probably due to the clear skies, light winds and mild, sunny afternoons.

    The overall average is being brought down by the chilly nights. Monday was actually a beautiful spring day with a warm feeling afternoon. Just shows that average at this time of year can actually be very pleasant.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    7 hours ago, Scorcher said:

    It hasn't felt that way at all around here- most people are actually perceiving this as a mild start to the month here. Probably due to the clear skies, light winds and mild, sunny afternoons.

    The overall average is being brought down by the chilly nights. Monday was actually a beautiful spring day with a warm feeling afternoon. Just shows that average at this time of year can actually be very pleasant.

    Yes my comments noted some places low teen maxima under the sun, but others struggling in the mid single digit bracket. That was Monday and Tuesday, today generally cold for most. We maxed at 5 degrees. Cold night again below freezing, a cold start to March. 

    Interesting to note this will most likely be 4th month in a row with a colder than normal first 10 days. March is a warming month though, and last 10 days is when the sun really strengthens.

    Next few days look generally cold.

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Latest projections and probabilities

    March4Project.thumb.png.e32915043e245db279c5dd06b5ff1dae.png March4Prob.thumb.png.4a1519b3c0daa7baad88beeffc3e3f38.png

    The chances of finishing:
    Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is 🔻to 23.8% (2 days ago was 26%)
    Above average (>7.2C) is 🔻to 3.6% (2 days ago was 5%)
    Below average (<6.2C) is 🔺to 72.6% (2 days ago was 69%)

    GFS for the 4th to 9th looks like average about 3.9C, or 2.1C below the 91-20 average

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    4.1c to the 3rd

    0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
    0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 4.2c on the 2nd
    Current low this month 4.0c on the 1st

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    The last few years have been characterized by quick lurches from one extreme to another, though. Rarely do we get prolonged average spells anymore.

    Consequently, it's proven very hard to pinpoint the CET landing spot until at least mid-month in many instances.

    Though this month starts chilly, a stalled low to the west could propel temps upwards pretty quickly, as with last month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    4.2c to the 4th

    0.3c below the 61 to 90 average
    0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 4.2c on the 2nd & 4th
    Current low this month 4.0c on the 1st

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield at 2.7C -2.4C below average, Rainfall 1mm 1.7% of the monthly average

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    For continuity ...

    4.1c to the 5th

    0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
    0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

    (also 0.9 below the 91 to 20 average)

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 4.2c on the 2nd & 4th
    Current low this month 4.0c on the 1st

    =================================================

    The 12z GFS suggests a very slow increase towards 5 C next week, a faster rise for a few days, but colder air showing up near the end, probably would result in a value near 5.5 by the 22nd. Unsettled at times but not overly wet either. 

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 2.9C -2.3C below normal. Rainfall Unchanged.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    3.9c to the 6th

    0.8c below the 61 to 90 average
    1.3c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 4.2c on the 2nd & 4th
    Current low this month 3.9c on the 6th

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    3.9c to the 6th

    0.8c below the 61 to 90 average
    1.3c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 4.2c on the 2nd & 4th
    Current low this month 3.9c on the 6th

    A chilly start to March but nothing exceptional. These commentaries are against the running mean rather than finished mean which is 5.7 degrees. Is it worth adding a counter against the final figure as well, 1.8 degrees below 61-90 average final figure, 2.3 against 80-10 figure. Measured against final figure we are running well below.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    EWP update: Still at 4 mm after six days, GFS says an average of about 20 mm expected to 17th, RJS says 15 mm from charts on GFS days 11 to 16, total of about 39 mm by 23rd from that. If correct that would be a rather dry trend, although almost normal amounts for the next 16 days, the first six have been relatively dry. The CET trends in this model run are a bit warmer than my last survey and I would expect the CET to rise slowly next week then a bit faster the second week, to reach a value near 6 C by the 23rd. 

    Our consensus values of 6.9 C and 63 mm seem to be in the realm of possibility at this point. The linear trends (assuming persistence of the trends noted to day 16) would suggest 6.4, 50 mm as the end points. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Most likely the CET will bottom out today, March on average is a 'warming' month. The coming week will bring much more cloud, wind and rain and less in the way of frost. A slow rise, but not at a particularly fast rate. Too early to call how the second half of the month may pan out. Interesting to note this will be the fourth month in a row with a colder than average first 10 day period at least.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 3C -2.2C below normal. Rainfall 1mm 1.7% of the monthly average

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    14 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

    EWP update: Still at 4 mm after six days, GFS says an average of about 20 mm expected to 17th, RJS says 15 mm from charts on GFS days 11 to 16, total of about 39 mm by 23rd from that. If correct that would be a rather dry trend, although almost normal amounts for the next 16 days, the first six have been relatively dry. The CET trends in this model run are a bit warmer than my last survey and I would expect the CET to rise slowly next week then a bit faster the second week, to reach a value near 6 C by the 23rd. 

    Our consensus values of 6.9 C and 63 mm seem to be in the realm of possibility at this point. The linear trends (assuming persistence of the trends noted to day 16) would suggest 6.4, 50 mm as the end points. 

    I think the rainfall might end up higher, if it did end up 63mm, i would extend my lead at the top, as for the CET, i think my 7.3c might be a tad high but not out the question, only needs a few days of Southerlies at the end of month to end up a warm CET.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    3.8c to the 7th

    1.0c below the 61 to 90 average
    1.6c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 4.2c on the 2nd & 4th
    Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Latest update

    Mar8Project.thumb.png.ccbd78c6a9c76a323f0470d8b6b3bfe1.png Mar8Pob.thumb.png.ae158e59b9686720bc5a05e5a9e46493.png

    The chances of finishing:
    Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is 🔺to 29.4% (4 days ago was 23.8%)
    Above average (>7.2C) is 🔻to 2.8% (4 days ago was 3.6%)
    Below average (<6.2C) is 🔻to 67.7% (4 days ago was 72.6%)

    GFS for the 8th to 13th looks like averaging about 6.2C, or 0.5C below the 91-20 average

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted (edited)
    9 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    I think the rainfall might end up higher, if it did end up 63mm, i would extend my lead at the top, as for the CET, i think my 7.3c might be a tad high but not out the question, only needs a few days of Southerlies at the end of month to end up a warm CET.

    Well every run of the GFS for several days now seems to run a bit warmer than the previous one, so what I said yesterday is already a bit on the low side for CET would now be estimating 6.5 to 7.0 by 24th. You might need some late downpours to get to that 63 mm but as we've seen in past months, a dry first half is no guarantee of a dry finish, was it last September we went from about 20 mm to a near record amount? Anyway, good luck. I went a touch higher on CET and a touch lower on EWP so our fates are going to be similar. 

    Just looked back at record warm 1957 (9.2) and second warmest 1938 (9.1), after seven days they were at 7.0 and 7.6 after first seven days, both reached 9 before end of month so they averaged about 10 from 8th to end of month to get there. We're starting our climb from a lower plateau but if we did average 10 then the month would finish out at about 8.5 just about equal to third place 2017 (8.7) which was sitting at 6.5 after seven days. Fourth place 1997 (8.4) was at 7.2 after the first week, while joint fifth place 2012 (8.3) started out only 5.5 after first seven days. Joint fifth 1990 (8.3) had a cold first three days after a warm February, but warmed quickly again and was at 7.6 after the first week. 1948 (also 8.3) wasn't much warmer than we sit now, at only 5.1 after seven days, but it was already quite mild by the 8th. Then 8th place 1961 (8.1) followed a much different path, it was already warmer than that by 7th (8.4), peaked at 9.3 on 17th almost catching 1957 but then fell back with a colder spell (only 3.9 for 19th). Of all these top eight months of March, it's the only one to have a significant downward trend in the second half. 

     

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Nothing particularly cold or mild on the horizon, probably just a bit above average in the coming week thanks to more cloud and wind, resulting in limited frost. Thereafter signal for high pressure to take control, but not sure where it may position itself, may see some warmer maxima cancelled out by colder minima. A high overhead in mid March can still bring notably cold nights.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 3.3C -2.0C below average, Rainfall 1.5mm 2.5% of the monthly average

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    3.9c to the 8th

    0.9c below the 61 to 90 average
    1.6c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 4.2c on the 2nd & 4th
    Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    A slow rise over the next few days, should take us a figure nearer the running mean mid-month. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 3.7C -1.6C below average, Rainfall 11.8mm 19.5% of the monthly average.

    Quick look at the local forecast gives us an average of 4.7C by the 15th. So a steady rise on the cards.

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