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March 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Excel -> March 21 CET.xlsx PDF (Summary) March 21 Summary.pdf Monthly 3 players got it spot on this month. BornFromTheVoid,  February1978 and Polar Gael. 35 players were within 0.5

Alright a few stats and graphs for March. AT 7.2C, March 2021 was the 42nd warmest in a record dating back to 1659. It was also: 0.5C above the 91-20 average 1.5C above the 61-90 average 1.

Confirmed as 7.2C, so a 0.2C downward correction. One daily mean record set, 14.3C on the last day, the 4th time 14C or higher has been reached. Will get more stats up later.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

    6.2C and 58.8mm please 

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  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    Do people traditionally get caught out by the number of days in February for their March guess? As in  they see its the 26th of the month and, in automated mind mode, still think there's four or five days of model watching left before they need to submit their guess? 

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  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

    7.1c 45mm 

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    I'll go for 8C and 50mm of rain

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  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

    Milder and drier than average:

    7.4C and 57mm

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  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level

    6.8c 55mm please 

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  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    A change to 7.3c please - rainfall unchanged.

     

    A very risky strategy as i feel a very very warm last week coming on, like to go well above in ascending months but i have to go on the evidence for first 2 weeks so no real alternative but to change - low confidence though.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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  • Location: Shoeburyness
  • Location: Shoeburyness

    After last months dismal failure.

    Should have known it wouldn't stay cold the whole month 😁

    6.7c   hoping for some colder nights to keep ave down.

    59mm hoping high pressure keeps close by.

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  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

    6.7C and 55mms please.

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  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    On 22/02/2021 at 10:35, General Cluster said:

    The running averages are very suggestive of a springtime step-change occurring around 1990; maybe a result of the earlier build-up of heat over North Africa and the Med, like what's now getting more common in February?🤔

    1588112676_MarchSevenYearAverageCET1800t

    So, I'll guess at 8C and 65mm, please, thank you, Roger.👍

    I'll drop mine down to 7.4C please.. Rainfall unchanged.

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  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    7.5°C and 66mm

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  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    5.7°C and 83mm thanks can’t see it being much a mild month not that settled either esp second half.

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  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    7.2C and 75mm, thanks.

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  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .

    Looks fairly dry and average to me    6.9C and 65mms please.

    MIA

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  • Location: W Kent/E Sussex border (T Wells) 139m ASL
  • Location: W Kent/E Sussex border (T Wells) 139m ASL

    7.1c and 69mm please.

    MM

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  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    7.0C and 70mm please.  A pretty nondescript month.

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