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March 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    14 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

    We have a provisional minimum of 9.1C, so would need a maximum of 20.9C to give a provisional 15.0C mean. Will be close.

    We should get that I'd have thought- very clear in NW England at the moment so should ensure Stonyhurst is warm today.

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    Excel -> March 21 CET.xlsx PDF (Summary) March 21 Summary.pdf Monthly 3 players got it spot on this month. BornFromTheVoid,  February1978 and Polar Gael. 35 players were within 0.5

    Alright a few stats and graphs for March. AT 7.2C, March 2021 was the 42nd warmest in a record dating back to 1659. It was also: 0.5C above the 91-20 average 1.5C above the 61-90 average 1.

    Confirmed as 7.2C, so a 0.2C downward correction. One daily mean record set, 14.3C on the last day, the 4th time 14C or higher has been reached. Will get more stats up later.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    15 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    Just like February, a warming trend through the month, first half colder than normal, but a very mild second half. 4 months in a row when the first half of the month has delivered colder than average conditions of varying degrees. April about to do the same.

    Wouldn't surprise me and will take that into consideration with my CET guess later!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    10 hours ago, Relativistic said:

    And it's mad how so many people assume they know -- or are at least very confident of -- the outcome of a month when there are 14+ days left. Not singling anyone out here, as such comments have been made on these threads for years.

    At the end of the day, the weather will always make fools of us, even the most professional and as Timmytour highlighted, the models are often caught out, too!

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    2 minutes ago, Don said:

    At the end of the day, the weather will always make fools of us, even the most professional!

    Guess whose guess for February was 2.2C!😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    Just now, General Cluster said:

    Guess whose guess for February was 2.2C!😁

    Well, I thought my 3.2C guess for February was conservative!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    7.2c to the 30th

    1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
    0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 7.2c on the 30th*
    Current low this month 3.8c on the 7th

    *No updates from 17th to 21st inclusive

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    As expected, EWP tracker stays on 51 mm (30th) and 24h rainfall map looks bone dry for 31st so that likely confirms 51 mm for now, final values to be revealed on the 5th (or possibly later if the weekend slows things down). The provisional scoring for EWP can be seen back a few posts, but here's the state of play overall (excel file of EWP scoring) ... to be updated on 5th. 

    EWP2020_21_Mar.xlsx

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    I think the CET is 7.2.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Confirmed as 7.2C, so a 0.2C downward correction.

    One daily mean record set, 14.3C on the last day, the 4th time 14C or higher has been reached. Will get more stats up later.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    Confirmed as 7.2C, so a 0.2C downward correction.

    One daily mean record set, 14.3C on the last day, the 4th time 14C or higher has been reached. Will get more stats up later.

    Yesterday would probably have been higher without that unexpected cloud across the south and east.

    Interesting that a very unremarkable month overall has actually ended up fairly warm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    23 hours ago, Scorcher said:

    We should get that I'd have thought- very clear in NW England at the moment so should ensure Stonyhurst is warm today.

    The min was corrected down to 8.3°C while the max came in at 20.2°C. The 15°C mark really is very difficult to achieve.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Alright a few stats and graphs for March.

    AT 7.2C, March 2021 was the 42nd warmest in a record dating back to 1659. It was also:
    0.5C above the 91-20 average
    1.5C above the 61-90 average
    1.4C above the 20th century average
    2.2C above the 18th century average

    AllMarch.thumb.png.193416a40c328e6905dd62ac8afeb1c8.png

    Compared with 1991-2020 average, 16 days were above average and 15 days were below. Three days were in the top 10 warmest, one of which set a new record, 14.3°C on the 31st. This beat the old record by 0.5°C. This was also just the 4th March day to average 14°C or higher.

    DailyValues.thumb.png.c5ad81b5cbf4329abc2ef3084ae24fe4.png

    No daily minimum records were set.
    Two daily high maximum records were set, with 21.2°C and 20.2°C on the 30th and 31st, beating the previous records by 2.0°C and 1.5°C respectively. The 21.2°C maximum was the 2nd highest on record for March

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted (edited)

    Preliminary listing of best CET forecasts to be confirmed by J10 (from table of entries) ...

    this table edited for EWP ranks in best combined. 

     

    Rank _ CET ___ EWP ___ Forecaster __ (order of entry) ________________ (notes on best combined CET EWP ranks)

     01 _ 7.2 __ 75.0 __ Born From The Void ( 39 ) _____________

     02 _ 7.2 __ 72.0 __ February1978 ( 46 ) ___________________ 

     03 _ 7.2 __ 85.0 __ Polar Gael ( 54 ) _______________________ 

     04 _ 7.1 __ ------ __ dancerwithwings ( 07 ) ________________  

     05 _ 7.1 __ 96.0 __ Weather26 ( 15 ) _______________________ 

     06 _ 7.1 __ 45.0 __ stewfox ( 23 ) __________________________ 3rd in best combined (6, 15)

     07 _ 7.1 __ 45.3 __ coldest winter ( 24 ) ___________________ 2nd in best combined (7, 13)

     08 _ 7.3 __ 65.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard ( 30,6.5 ) _____________

     09 _ 7.1 __ 69.0 __ Mr Maunder ( 42 ) _____________________

     10 _ 7.1 __ 66.6 __ 2010cold ( 45 ) ________________________ 

     11 _ 7.3 __ ------- __ Quicksilver1989 ( L1-6 ) ______________ 

     12*_ 7.3 __ 50.0 __ Federico ( L3-1 ) ______________________ 4th in best combined (15, 7)

     13 _ 7.0 __ 15.0 __ DiagonalRedLine ( 10 ) ________________ 

     14 _ 7.4 __ 75.0 __ Stationary Front ( 18 ) ________________  

     15 _ 7.0 __ 50.0 __ Leo97t ( 22 ) __________________________ best combined (14, 1)

     16 _ 7.4 __ 57.0 __ Reef ( 26 ) ____________________________  6th best combined (16, 17)

     17 _ 7.0 __ ------ __ Mark Bayley ( 33 ) _____________________ 

     18 _ 7.4 __ 65.0 __ General Cluster ( 36, 11.5 ) ____________ 

     19 _ 7.0 __ 70.0 __ Don ( 43 ) _____________________________ 

     20 _ 7.0 __ 56.0 __ stargazer ( 52 ) ________________________ 5th best combined (20, 12)

     21 _ 7.0 __ 90.0 __ DR(S)NO ( L1-1 ) _______________________ 

    ============================================================

    * CET rank assessed as 15th for best combined.

    therefore 13-15 assessed as 12-14 for best combined. 

    __________________________________________________________________

    another four entries were 0.3 out, and another seven were 0.4 out.

    This made 32 out of 63 within 0.4; our consensus was 6.9 (-0.3) a slight improvement on the normals. 

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    3 hours ago, Relativistic said:

    The min was corrected down to 8.3°C while the max came in at 20.2°C. The 15°C mark really is very difficult to achieve.

    Yes it is, but when you originally posted it looked like the southern stations would be getting close to 25C according to the forecast- that didn't happen due to the unforecast cloud.

    A missed opportunity unfortunately.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield came in at 7.2C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall 69.3mm 114.4% of the monthly average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    7 hours ago, Scorcher said:

    Yesterday would probably have been higher without that unexpected cloud across the south and east.

    Interesting that a very unremarkable month overall has actually ended up fairly warm.

    At 7.1c I was so close, but yes after corrections I was surprised it dropped by 0.2 🤗

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

    At 7.2c March 2021 shares the same mean CET with March's:

    1831

    1893

    1912

    1920

    2005

    2007

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Close with CET guess but a little out with the EWP guess!

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted (edited)

    The provisional EWP of 51 mm will hit the records in this area, ranks are driest of 256 (1766-2021). CET of these years shown to give some idea which ones are most similar in general. April outcomes included. April EWP also shown.

    Rank ___ Year ____ EWP ____ CET (Mar, Apr) __ EWP April

    _92 _____ 1976 ____ 49.0 ____ 4.8 __ 8.1 _____ 19.0

    _93 _____ 1766 ____ 49.2 ____ 4.2 __ 8.1 _____ 60.9

    _94 _____ 1885 ____ 49.5 ____ 4.5 __ 7.7 _____ 63.2

    _95 _____ 1887 ____ 49.8 ____ 3.3 __ 6.2 _____ 36.6

    _96 _____ 1958 ____ 49.9 ____ 3.7 __ 7.4 _____ 30.8

    _97 _____ 2004 ____ 50.2 ____ 6.5 __ 9.4 _____ 91.2

    _98 _____ 1776 ____ 50.5 ____ 6.4 __ 9.4 _____ 22.4

    _99t_____ 1800 ____ 50.8 ____ 4.0 __ 9.3 _____103.2

    _99t_____ 1904 ____ 50.8 ____ 4.3 __ 8.7 _____ 46.1

    _(101)____2021 ____(51.0)____ 7.2 __ ---- _____ ------

    _102_____ 2015 ____ 51.4 ____ 6.4 __ 9.0 _____ 28.1

    _103_____ 1806 ____ 52.0 ____ 5.1 __ 6.8 _____ 26.8

    _104_____ 1880 ____ 52.1 ____ 6.2 __ 7.9 _____ 56.4

    _105t____ 1882 ____ 52.4 ____ 7.4 __ 8.4 _____114.0

    _105t____ 1960 ____ 52.4 ____ 6.4 __ 8.9 _____ 46.6

    _107_____ 1817 ____ 52.5 ____ 5.5 __ 7.6 ______ 7.9

    _108_____ 1833 ____ 52.6 ____ 3.9 __ 7.7 _____ 76.9

    _109_____ 1923 ____ 52.8 ____ 6.5 __ 7.6 _____ 70.6

    _110_____ 2002 ____ 53.0 ____ 7.6 __ 9.3 _____ 47.5

    _111_____1826 ____ 53.1 ____ 6.3 __ 8.8 ____ 35.6

    _112_____1811 ____ 53.3 ____ 7.1 __ 8.9 ____ 57.8

    _113_____1869 ____ 53.7 ____ 3.8 __10.1____ 50.9

    _114_____ 1780 ____ 53.8 ____ 7.9 __ 6.3 ____ 98.2

    _115_____ 1955 ____ 53.9 ____ 3.2 __ 9.3 ____ 32.1

    __________________________________________________________

    In these 23 closest precip analogues, there's a tendency towards a dry April to follow,

    the median of the 23 cases EWP is 47.5 mm and there are several less than 30 mm.

    the median of the 23 following April CET is 8.4, considering the time distribution this is

    a bit warmer than random for the sample. Decades with several analogues are the

    1880s, 1950s (to 1960) and 2000s. The best temperature analogue among these EWP

    analogues was 1811. 

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Excel -> March 21 CET.xlsx

    PDF (Summary) March 21 Summary.pdf

    Monthly

    3 players got it spot on this month. BornFromTheVoid,  February1978 and Polar Gael.
    35 players were within 0.5c, compared to only 3 in February.

    image.thumb.png.ba0e43f935270e151948f47cd03f67ab.png

    Seasonal

    The top 10 largely matches the March result.

    image.thumb.png.52e7a6324d4fbf9602b61e4391e54807.png

    Overall

    A new top 3, Mr Maunder, 2010cold and reef.

    image.thumb.png.d19e9b47f85d45946b1977bb6126a160.png

    Edited by J10
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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    Shot up up 16 places for me 💪 but for some like BFTV movements have been 20+ 👆.... I think April will be interesting 🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    The EWP official value for March is set at 50.9 mm. That will eliminate two ties that were based on 51.4 mm as a provisional value and switch the lead from Bobd29 (52 mm) to the group at 50 mm. A few scores will be affected, 90% will remain exactly the same. Later today I will have this updated and posted here to replace the provisional list. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted (edited)

    Updated EWP scoring for March and contest year

    SCORES for MARCH 2021 (from 50.9 mm) _____________ TOTALS for CONTEST YEAR

    Rank_ Forecaster ________ fcst __ err _____ pts __________ rank _ forecaster _________ points __ avg err (rank)

    01 _ Leo97t ______________ 50.0 __ --0.9 ___10.00 ________01 _ snowray ______________32.04 ___ 30.83 (5)

    02 _ The PIT __________ (2)_50.0 __ --0.9 ___ 9.88 ________ 02 _ virtualsphere ________ 30.96 ___ 29.65 (4)

    02t_ Relativistic ___ (3, 1d)_50.0 __ --1.4 ___ 9.46 ________ 03 _ Bobd29 ______________ 30.78 ___ 35.55 (8)

    04 _ Bobd29 _____________ 52.0 __+1.1 ____ 9.22 ________ 04 _ Relativistic ___________ 30.03 ___ 28.75 (3)

    05 _ noname_weather ___ 52.8 __ +1.9 ___ 9.03 _________ 05 _ The PIT _______________29.72 ___ 37.50 (15)

    06 _ virtualsphere ________48.0 __ --2.9 ___ 8.84 ________ 06 _ Feb1991Blizzard _____ 29.18 ___ 34.80 (7)

    07 _ Federico _____ (4, 3d)_50.0 __ --0.9 ___ 8.74 ________ 07 _ Federico _____________ 26.58 ___ 35.90 (10)

    08 _ Pegg24 ______________ 55.0 ___+3.6 ___8.45 ________ 08 _ Don __________________ 25.58 ___ 36.70 (13)

    09 _ snowray _______ (1d)_54.0 ___+3.1 ___8.34 _________ 09 _ Godber1 _____________ 24.87 ___ 39.30 (19)

    10 _ Norrance ________ (2) _55.0 __ +3.6 ___8.33 ________ 10 _ noname_weather ____ 24.19 ___ 41.00 (21)

    11 _ Roger J Smith ________ 55.7 __ +4.8 ___8.07 ________ 11 _ stewfox ______________ 23.95 ___ 42.00 (23)

    12 _ stargazer ____________ 56.0 __ +5.1 ___7.87 ________ 12 _ SteveB _______________ 23.70 ___ 35.95 (11)

    13 _ coldest winter _______ 45.3 __ --5.6 ___ 7.67 ________13 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ___ 23.67 ___ 40.25 (20)

    14 _ Frigid ________________ 45.0 __ --5.9 ___ 7.48  _______14 _ Reef _________________ 23.52 ___ 36.05 (12)

    15 _ Stewfox __________ (2)_45.0 __ --5.9 ___ 7.36 _______ 15 _ JeffC _________________ 23.28 ___ 39.05 (t17)

    16 _ Earthshine __ (3, 1d) _ 45.0 __ --5.9 ___  6.94 _______16 _ davehsug ____________ 23.22 ___ 38.20 (16)

    17 _ Reef _________________ 57.0 __ +6.1 ___ 6.91 ________17 _ Midlands Ice Age _____22.23 ___ 39.05 (t17)

    18 _ weather-history ______58.0 __ +7.1 ___ 6.50 _______ 18 _ February1978 ________ 22.11 ___ 43.20 (24)

    19 _ Walsall Wood Snow (2)58.0 __ +7.1 ___6.38 _______  19 _ Stationary Front ______ 21.41 ___ 43.30 (25)

    20 _ Emmett Garland_(2,2d)_57.0 __ +6.1 ___ 6.19 _______ 20 _ Blast From the Past ___ 21.30 ___ 47.05 (t40)

    21 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ___ 58.8 __ +7.9 ___ 6.13 _______ 21 _ Leo97t ________________ 21.13 ___ 53.75 (50)

    22 _ seaside60 ___________ 59.0 __ +8.1 ___ 5.94 ________22 _ pegg24 _______________ 20.96 ___ 45.20 (34)

    23 _ Summer blizzard ____ 60.0 __ +9.1 ___ 5.75 _______ 23 _ Summer18 ____________ 19.14 ___ 44.05 (27)

    24 _ SteveB ______________ 63.0 __+12.1 ___ 5.55 _______ 24 _ seaside60 _____________ 18.85 ___ 45.45 (t35)

    25 _ Godber1 _______ (2) _ 63.0 __+12.1 ___ 5.43 _______ 25 _ Emmett Garland ______ 18.67 ___ 44.95 (33)

    _________________________________________________________________________________

    notes: 6th place virtualsphere was scored from 7th scoring interval and snowray scored from 8th scoring interval, late penalties account for ranks. 

    ... some ranks are not in the order of error size due to late penalties, but scores are calculated from the error interval (e.g. virtualsphere from 7th

    scoring interval, snowray from 8th, Emmett Garland from 17th). Duplicate entries drop 0.12 points per entry, and late penalties are 0.3 per day.

    ______________________________________________________________________

    some higher ranks in average error do not appear in top 25 as criteria for ranking is entry of 2/4 or more contests, this will advance by "all but two"

    as we move forward so these outliers will probably either drop off the list (if they fail to enter) or get mixed in more. 

    Currently low average error (2 of 4 entered) is coldest winter, second lowest is cymro (also 2 of 4). They will be out of the rankings if they miss

    one more month this contest year (which is now the case, along with 14th ranked moffat). Your effective error rank is now 2 better in the range 3-13

    and 3 better for 15+ (with other adjustments in higher ranks too).

    ... the previously posted excel file has been updated at my end, but the link shown in a previous post has not. 

    ... 26-30 annual ranks are 2010cold, J10, Polar Gael, moffat and jonboy.

    ... 31-40 are shillitocettwo, coldest winter, Earthshine, Summer Blizzard, Born from the Void, General Cluster, Cymro, Norrance, Roger J Smith, Mulzy.

    ... 41-50 are Sleety, Booferking, Dog Toffee, DR(S)NO, Frigid, Joneseye, Walsall Wood Snow, weather26,  I Rem Atl 252, Let It Snow.

    ... 51-60 are cawsand, DRL, sundog, weather-history, David Snow, MrMaunder, Stargazer, moorlander, NeilN, Paul T.

    ... ranks of other regular entrants include 63 Lettucing Gutted, 65 Timmytour, 67 syed2878, 77 daniel* and 81 CheesepuffScott.

    The updated scoring file is attached. Best combined forecast (final count) is Leo97t (14th CET, 1st EWP). 

    *** Congrats to Leo97t for 3rd place in Feb and 1st in Mar EWP, and to The_PIT for 2nd place in both contests.

    They had the same values forecast but entered in a different order in the two contests, so they shared low

    errors with various other forecasters both months. ***

    EWP2020_21_Mar.xlsx

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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