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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Just to add: with wider scale Synoptics geos/stamps/plots all very much on course for an arctic onslaught.. to what degree remains, in the closet .. for now... !!

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    21 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

    Last time I remember snow hanging around in April was 2013, but it was snow that had fallen in March!

    Looks to me like fairly similar conditions being modelled in that it won't be cold enough to generate snow (down south anyway) but ,if there had been snow around, it wouldn't have been disappearing too fast

    I remember this event very well. I was 12 years old on holiday with my family in Devon and we were on our way to visit Lands end, we suddenly stumbled into some very heavy snowfall on the moors and had to turn back- to this day I've still never been to Cornwall! My partner hates driving there also as its "too far".

     

    I remember speaking to the locals in a cafe close to the Devon/Cornwall border and they told us how unusual it is to have snow there and even moreso in mid April!.

     

    As for this coming Easter period it's probably unlikely anything like that will happen south of Wales but who knows stranger things have happened.

     

    Let's just enjoy the warm spell 3days 20+down here in the SE😍🏖🌞🌞🌞

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

    I respectfully disagree..if that is allowed?..the second cold shot (reload) is the one that matters, the first shot always looked weaker, more of a glancing blow whereas the reload is the more powerful cold shot..if it happens of course as it’s currently only a computer projection in FI! 😛 

    This is my point though, the 'second shot' is still a long way off, so until something comes into the reliable there is still a chance it won't happen.

    I'm also hesitant to trust the mean so far out- that can easily change too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Cold, cold Easter Monday on this evening's GFS:

    image.thumb.png.385b7efefd05a6ab78e4a21c04c4d67e.png

    This is similar to what WAS being shown for Good Friday 48-72 hours ago

    ICON says no:

    image.thumb.png.bca1e769df8edb5d2f980d2fe8528ca9.png

    But the MetO is looking like it is setting something properly cold up for later into the holiday weekend

    image.thumb.png.324140ff75a4d53847723fa17886f29a.png

    So, chances of cold increasing for later in the Easter weekend but the first 3 days should be ok for most. No warmth but no real cold either. Monday onwards might be a different story

    Edited by LRD
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    Gfs 18Z with 1105 Mb over Greenland. 00Z, 06Z, 12Z still with very impressive values. However, 1105 Mb is like the craziest record I have seen (but the run with -23 850hPa on April posted here at the last page :P)

    Also support from other models.

     

    greenland_highpress.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

     

    GFS brings the Screaming northerly back!!

    image.thumb.png.bee23f903347aa2a936808016eb63d39.png

     

    image.thumb.png.52eaf8dd607d5a5e1c152d6bfda457d9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, minus10 said:

     

    GFS brings the Screaming northerly back!!

    image.thumb.png.bee23f903347aa2a936808016eb63d39.png

     

    image.thumb.png.52eaf8dd607d5a5e1c152d6bfda457d9.png

    Great chart, don't want west based NAO thingy, sucks big time that

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    better time of year too, January this would be bone dry wishbone effect, but April 5th should be good convective skies

    hgt500-1000.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    7 minutes ago, minus10 said:

     

    GFS brings the Screaming northerly back!!

    image.thumb.png.bee23f903347aa2a936808016eb63d39.png

     

    image.thumb.png.52eaf8dd607d5a5e1c152d6bfda457d9.png

    Which, unfortunately, leads to a pretty cold week on the GFS.

    GEM still takes the coldest air to our west though

    image.thumb.png.22389de6c56658cfee985b551aaa8050.png

    image.thumb.png.3be307c36f3a551368a377c4d4177c00.png

    Interesting to see how this pans out

    Edited by LRD
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    Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
    5 hours ago, Scorcher said:

    The downgrades to any notable cold continue.

    Yesterday I was called out for questioning why there was no talk about the very notable warm spell that is on the way but lots of discussion about the cold spell in FI.

    I think we've seen now why it's called FI. A few people were convinced it was nailed on- nothing is nailed on over a week out.

    Add in the fact that it will be April next week and the odds are increasingly against any notable cold anyway- you need perfection in terms of a setup now.

    That's not to say it won't be chilly and snow/sleet showers aren't uncommon in April.

     

    And yet the 12z says 🤫

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    Minus 10 850s going well into France on this run...

    image.thumb.png.37edea3360f2f50396bb5c351c1804a4.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Hoping that GFS, yet again, is barking up the wrong tree with that northerly. 8 days away anyway - horrid chart!

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    Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
    Just now, Djdazzle said:

    Hoping that GFS, yet again, is barking up the wrong tree with that northerly. 8 days away anyway - horrid chart!

    The concern would be the UKMO is setting up a similar pattern.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, Ramp said:

    The concern would be the UKMO is setting up a similar pattern.

    At 144, I’m not that concerned - yet!

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    The key to this GFS 12z run is the absence of a small area of low pressure just to the nw of island at 156, which is there on the 6z run. The absence of this low makes all the difference...

    image.thumb.png.0cde2cca25f49901d3e4ebc24aac0e78.pngimage.thumb.png.901c8fc48bc93776b718f112b3ada3f1.png

    Edited by minus10
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    10 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    At 144, I’m not that concerned - yet!

    Agreed, needs the met on board, but even so, as far charts vs time of year, this, as they say, is ridiculous 😱 

    gfs-1-204.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Could rival April 1917 for cold at this rate if the gfs verifies,lets hope the ECM follows the gfs

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Short ensembles:

    image.thumb.png.6b0e401bcd15cd0ee9438b6fadb01ee7.png

    Op is one of the coldest runs in the suite but it is not an outlier. 

    Drat

    image.thumb.png.01dfa47330e32cbe7e0d846293d1db10.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    GFS 12z T264 is a stonker.

    image.thumb.png.74dc33c67236e9cee3dcf8aa5ca7b73d.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    28 minutes ago, LRD said:

    Short ensembles:

    image.thumb.png.6b0e401bcd15cd0ee9438b6fadb01ee7.png

    Op is one of the coldest runs in the suite but it is not an outlier. 

    Drat

    image.thumb.png.01dfa47330e32cbe7e0d846293d1db10.png

     But fortunately still effectively FI...

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    Just now, Alderc said:

     But fortunately still effectively FI...

    Aye, very true. The MetO at 144 tonight is a concern though as it looks like it could set up what the GFS is showing. Although the GEM is similar to that MetO run and that deflects the coldest air towards Iceland and some ships in the N Atlantic

    I don't think we're going to avoid a few days' cold weather next week (from Monday or Tuesday onwards). But at least Thursday to Easter Sunday seem to have been 'rescued' from the coldest weather

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I haven’t seen many comments about the next few days?...The Gfs 12z operational shows plenty of sunshine across southern u k and a thing to note about the max temps, the Gfs has a habit of undercooking the maxima so on Tuesday for example, 21c may result in 23c and Wednesday, 22c may result in 24 or possibly 25c but increasing cloud on Wednesday could have something to say about that...however, an almost summery feel to tues / wed in particular further s / se. ☀️ ⛅😎 

    6B5A10AD-3C66-4B20-9506-89D60D0822E8.thumb.png.0f094f71971135260606e2b55a95dfd6.png0E6FCE8D-3F7C-42E9-86EC-0CB399947E9E.thumb.png.ccd396953e4ed3817d9f3b51278add92.png28E74A50-8D9D-4F70-B03B-75DAEA82440A.thumb.png.888d4e04dce4d71e0c0479f2341e1256.pngB50E0694-A686-41BE-99A0-C91196D539BE.thumb.png.58260638af4dd3038e8fea2111d0e02c.png2BCED56F-1B03-4F21-A59A-22C013456D6F.thumb.png.053f1584503e99c6bd006d62ba7e7aa5.pngADB4E887-C3D8-4376-9168-8D042DFC0C86.thumb.png.78498430ab623af548d8fb0c35c1a1fd.png30B18358-DE4C-4F68-8CAC-E5B9258FEA97.jpeg.7de8e1626727ac3d3012536f9cf11d97.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    I haven’t seen many comments about the next few days?...The Gfs 12z operational shows plenty of sunshine across southern u k and a thing to note about the max temps, the Gfs has a habit of undercooking the maxima so on Tuesday for example, 21c may result in 23c and Wednesday, 22c may result in 24 or possibly 25c but increasing cloud on Wednesday could have something to say about that...however, an almost summery feel to tues / wed in particular further s / se. ☀️ ⛅😎 

    It seems to be that the warmth is being extended and the cold delayed?  Typical really.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Dross incoming...

    image.thumb.png.1adf6a4c42c4bcb849ce609b05859564.png

    Won't get to the south until late in the day, though, I hope

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