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Model output discussion 10/02/21


Message added by Paul,

Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    heavy snow showers powering south.

    image.thumb.png.6a43cd7bfda6c1c3caae7c8dd2958d64.png

     

    image.thumb.png.ba2f11458c70f7582a322554e5792dc8.png

    Yes -15 degree uppers close to N Isles! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    Seems to be a powerhouse of cold air dropping down from the greenland area on this gfs 18z run. 

    image.thumb.png.b05a47742de88d6e2f156eb130f9b182.pngimage.thumb.png.567451b765092b5651ad5c889036703b.png

     

    I know it is way in FI so changes are likely however this signal has been growing for a while now. The pattern presently shown seems to be in a reload type of setup. Potentially damaging frosts if this was to any way verify which would not good for gardeners /growers. ...Lets look forward to the couple of warmer days after the weekend....

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

    Meteociel is back! 🤸‍♂️🙂

    Another really cold GFS this morning with the possibility of snow from the start of April in Scotland right up until the 9th across the whole of the UK. 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
    1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

    Having a hard time believing some of these charts- GEM gets the -10 isotherm at the 850 level down across to the S coast. Unbelievable for early April really.

    GEMOPEU00_216_2.png

    If this was to come to fruition, the brief mild spell beforehand could be pretty damaging to nature. Overnight temperatures and DPs are shown to go through the floor thereafter.

    GFS has a couple of snow events into the S and Midlands into FI too.

    Best hope is a fair fall of snow to insulate plants.Believe there can be a huge difference in temperature between the top and bottom of a snow blanket.Witnessed it in early April 1968 where newly sown spring barley emerged under a blanket of snow and greened up well  when snow melted.  In spring we tend to have much dryer snow falling with much dryer air as well so tend to get more sublimation if its very cold and more evaporation when it warms up so ground waterlogging is usually not such a problem.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Apologies all, it's because I'd scheduled some time to do some external maintenance.... Never make plans! 

    gfsnh-0-180.png

    gfsnh-0-240.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    The very potentially cold Easter gathering more momentum by the day:

    image.thumb.png.a995a6031d88e520a1aecef91fd4d22a.pngimage.thumb.png.cadbf9ec9442d1f7ea0a30ede8c76fa2.pngimage.thumb.png.c0f0dcd72a4710fbaec52b25c09069ff.png

    GEM in particular is very cold this morning with a straight Arctic flow. GFS and ECM are a bit more modified, but still cold.

    The weather is amazing sometimes. From early spring warmth to a wintry Arctic blast within 3/4 days!

    image.thumb.png.428343955bad639ac75702062eb32199.pngimage.thumb.png.d3ec1a9aa94b01aa47a7de07aa6fa73f.png 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    The GEM ensembles are really interesting this morning, once into April the mean is bang on the long term average however hardly of the members are anywhere near average. The GEM Ops run was an outlier towards the end (no surprises) but plenty of support however offsetting this there is another separate group of ensemble members some 5-15C warmer indicating almost any outcome still on the table post the middle of next week. GFS ensembles similar although weighted more 60/40 towards the colder option.

    As always positioning of high pressure will be crucial. At this stage the easy call would be to suggest something colder over Easter however probably modified compared to some of the really very cold runs are seeing being churned out at times. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    fun few weeks? not sure about that Jon? looks to me like a few days on the GFS, but I'm still expecting it to downgrade to high pressure over/near us

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    49 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    The GEM ensembles are really interesting this morning, once into April the mean is bang on the long term average however hardly of the members are anywhere near average. The GEM Ops run was an outlier towards the end (no surprises) but plenty of support however offsetting this there is another separate group of ensemble members some 5-15C warmer indicating almost any outcome still on the table post the middle of next week. GFS ensembles similar although weighted more 60/40 towards the colder option.

    As always positioning of high pressure will be crucial. At this stage the easy call would be to suggest something colder over Easter however probably modified compared to some of the really very cold runs are seeing being churned out at times. 

    image.thumb.png.cf77af965e690a44014f4767740395da.png

    Even the ECM clusters at day 5-7 are split 18/11/11/11, which indicates high uncertainty at a relatively short timeframe. Going to have to wait a few more days before we can be sure exactly what we're going to get.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    21 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

    These charts dont support the colder options some runs are suggesting, although a brief blast of cold is possible?... it looks to me like the GFS 06z is closer to the outcome at least over Easter.

     

    814day.03.gif

    And the latest is that these charts now suggest further amplification of the High to our West. Still with a slackish mean Northwesterly over the UK, suggests IMHO after an initial blast of cold later next week, things might become calmer but still on the cold side, before a further Northerly blast reloads after Easter as some GFS runs suggest.

    This is beginning to smack of Spring 1975.

     

    814day.03.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    I’ll take a summer 1975 if that’s on offer @mushymanrob! The famous early June snow was replaced by some warmth, a warm July and a hot august.
     

    That’s one thing I’d like to see in a summer.....a good august has been lacking in most summers since the turn of the century. Some absolute stinkers in there too (2004 Boscastle springs to mind). Last year was very odd with the unsettled start and that run of very hot days....before back to unsettled.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    16 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    And the latest is that these charts now suggest further amplification of the High to our West. Still with a slackish mean Northwesterly over the UK, suggests IMHO after an initial blast of cold later next week, things might become calmer but still on the cold side, before a further Northerly blast reloads after Easter as some GFS runs suggest.

    This is beginning to smack of Spring 1975.

     

    814day.03.gif

    Funny though that we're all focused on a week or so ahead when it's actually pretty decent right now. 14C is actually quite decent for March. This March has already had a lot more mild days than past Marches such as 2018 (only 8 days got into double figures here all month), 2013, 2006 or 2008. So I think it's a bit premature to be comparing this to notoriously cold springs such as 1975. We're not even into April yet.

    Hard for me to comment on 1975 directly as it's well before my time and I haven't examined the records for that year. 

    There aren't many springs that I can recall that haven't had a northerly plunge at some stage. Even last spring did, but they ended up being brief affairs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    15 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Until then this looks like its becoming one of the longest cold hunts ever on this Forum...And you know what...give it a few more more months and we will be starting a new chase! 

     

    gfs-0-222.png

    gfs-1-204.png

    We've had springs in recent times that have been considerably colder than this one- so not sure how this is becoming the longest chase?

    This month has been decidedly average overall with very little cold to write home about.

    Here's hoping once this spell is over, we stay warm until November.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    13 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    We've had springs in recent times that have been considerably colder than this one- so not sure how this is becoming the longest chase?

    This month has been decidedly average overall with very little cold to write home about.

    Here's hoping once this spell is over, we stay warm until November.

    We was chasing cold from November! Now some of us are chasing in nearly April! I'm not saying it's been cold throughout....far from it! I'm stating its been a very long chase! Personally I can't see this being much of a Spring for the ones who crave it. Certainly Miles away from the last couple we had,but I'm hopefull of some decent Summer conditions at times,and perhaps this year it being more backloaded for a change. Just in time for the Winter reload.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    24 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    We was chasing cold from November! Now some of us are chasing in nearly April! I'm not saying it's been cold throughout....far from it! I'm stating its been a very long chase! Personally I can't see this being much of a Spring for the ones who crave it. Certainly Miles away from the last couple we had,but I'm hopefull of some decent Summer conditions at times,and perhaps this year it being more backloaded for a change. Just in time for the Winter reload.

     

    I think the coldies are always 'chasing' cold from November onwards though. With the UK climate though it's more often than not a wild goose chase!

    It's certainly been very quiet in here through March so it seems most gave up the chase a while ago. Much longer days now and higher sun so any cold just isn't the same. It's a bit like continuing to chase heat in late September- just not the same. Frost often disappears before people are even awake in April and May.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Jeez I find myself falling bk in here. Plots and ens that wouldn’t look at of kilter in mid January... and as noted the drop off gaining traction .. with higher sources looking evermore lonesome!!  And don’t be mistaken for surface freeze even at this time... @April.. spring a rapidly descending cravement right now... let’s see where we go with this 🤦‍♂️...

    27E3A229-E423-4071-B5DF-8791D80D39C7.png

    1198765A-28F0-4336-BC3E-B21928618D77.png

    A4D3F98B-E067-4AA0-A535-7B1E81371D81.png

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Looking at the 500 mb anomaly charts, I believe mushy showed the 8-14 NOAA this morning, and both EC and NOAA show upper ridging in the Greenland area in the 6-10/12 day period, NOAA only just come in with this but EC has had it for a couple of days. I would think cold Fri--Sat this week, warming up then with a SW flow out to Wed/Thur then the return of colder air, sourced from a NW'ly region.

    The two models shown below give the idea. After all for many areas in the UK the % probability for snow over the East holiday rather than the Xmas holiday is a fair bit higher!

     

    The NOAA 8-14 keeps this pattern going!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Watch this incoming  cold spell gather momentum in the days ahead,of course if it was in the depth of Winter we all know it would get watered down to a one day Northerly Toppler 🙄

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    At the moment looks like we could be heading for the chilliest first ten days of April since 2013 and maybe even only the second sub 5.5C mean CET in 35 years.

    The rolling CET for the first 10 days of April doesn't look like a lot of other periods to me where the warming is evident from the early nineties and even a little stalled in later years.  Instead it seemed to take until the start of this decade to reclaim the heights that were already reached in the early sixties, and only since then have new heights been established.


    So, although a cold start to April may be overdue and the models are leaning towards it, another horse in the race with form has to be one that helps push that rolling average ever upwards, or at least maintains it,

     

    540985935_AprilFirst10Days.thumb.jpg.0b5d11dd6290d5a6e2e74d366ff93433.jpg 

    Edited by Timmytour
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Hello and long time no post ha ha but could there be a cold shot at the start of April,...there is every possibility looking at the latest models and anomalies...

    the latest 12z gfs has us in with a cold shot before day ten with a E/NE wind with -8's coming in

    gfsnh-0-228.thumb.png.862a044ef16a09db8ae556f6396ff5c2.pnggfsnh-1-228.thumb.png.10809ff727c9dbe9f5deb738fdb4ed10.png

    and the UKMO like there could be a reload from the north from 144 hrs

    UN144-21.thumb.gif.f899b302b757ac1f2dbb67b6ba7b97c8.gif

    day ten EPS 500's and 850's

    ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.576056fa7b3f764be4c3fa09c0fd80d2.pngecmwf-ens_T850a_nhem_11.thumb.png.4da616dc88efeed0dcfa63e253deafd5.png 

    i guess that i will have to wait for repotting some of my specimen trees🌲🌳🍁 until the frost's pass by❄️ 

    😂 Just as I'd bothered to download these charts 👍

    (great minds etc) 

    Edited by Griff
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