Model output discussion 10/02/21

[knocker]

38 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I certainly hope not mushy but the 6-10 day last evening had +ve heights of,?, 270DM NW of Ireland. The 8-14 almost always 'waters' down the 6-10. But it has the same contour pattern and its watered down +ve heights are in much the same place.

The sooner the ridge pattern it shows gives way to an Atlantic flow, (not a strong one), the more I will like it! Not a popular post with the coldies but never mind!

Possible surface analysis John, but as the ridge slides west

[SqueakheartLW]

As promised here is my summary of the colder options showing in the 00z GFS. A good selection again but overall less cold than the 18z was

Member 8     Fri 19th March     850hpa temp -9.9C     2m temp day max 5.1C     night min 1.8C

Member 8 gets the cold update under way here with an anticyclonic easterly. This is bringing colder air into England and Wales as can be seen by the colder uppers over this part of the UK and the daytime max of 5.1C and overnight min of 1.8C is a reflection of this. Milder air is still present in the north however.

Operational     Fri 19th March     850hpa temp -9.2C     2m temp day max 4.8C     night min 2.2C

The operational run has a similar theme to Member 8 with colder air pushing into England and Wales whilst Scotland and N Ireland are still in milder air. Very similar to Member 8 with 4.8C the max and 2,2C the min

Member 27     Fri 19th March     850hpa temp -9.6C     2m temp day max 4.6C     night min 1.8C

Another variant of the first 2 options I have features only this time the cold is more UK wide on Member 27. This is the coldest of these options too with 4.6C the max and 1.8C the min.

Member 25     Mon 22nd March     850hpa temp -9.5C     2m temp day max 5.5C     night min 0.5C

Starting to become a common theme this is with high pressure close to or to the N or W of the UK. This one has the cold vs mild more of an east/west split rather than a north/south version. Coldest air in the east and less cold in the west. If only this could have set up a bit further west then an Arctic shot would hit the UK.

Member 16     Mon 22nd March     850hpa temp -8.9C     2m temp day max 6.8C     night min 3.7C

The first colder option from Member 16. The least cold version of this so far with a glancing hit from Arctic air that mostly pushes down into central Europe whilst we are chilly and dry. A max of 6.8C and min of 3.7C makes this the least cold option so far.

Member 16     Fri 26th March     850hpa temp -9.2C     2m temp day max 6.1C     night min 1.7C

The second cold hit from Member 16. This is a bit more like it with the high further out to the west meaning we get a better hit from the Arctic. However still not that cold really despite this with a max of 6.1C and min of 1.7C but at least it is colder than the first Member 16 option was.

Member 4     Tue 23rd March     850hpa temp -11.3C     2m temp day max 3.2C     night min 0.6C

Member 4 looks like a NW/SE split with the NW mostly dry and less cold whilst the SE is under a cold icy flow from the Arctic and Scandi. Snow is likely to feature, especially the further SE you go and with a max of 3.2C and min of 0.6C then this is the coldest option so far on the 00z GFS.

Member 12     Tue 23rd March     850hpa temp -13.1C     2m temp day max 0.2C     night min -2.8C

Finally a nationwide Arctic blast appears in the options and this is a potent one too. Snow showers likely to feature here and with a very cold max of just 0.2C and a min of -2.8C then this is easily the coldest option so far.

Member 28     Wed 24th March     850hpa temp -12.5C     2m temp day max 1.6C     night min -2.6C

Member 28 is a slightly less cold and less widespread version of the previous option with the snow more restricted to the east of the UK. Still cold here with a max of 1.6C and min of -2.6C

Member 22     Wed 24th March     850hpa temp -10.1C     2m temp day max 2.9C     night min -1.4C

The first of two shots of cold for Member 22 sees a nice Arctic blast throughout the UK. Snow showers very possible here and with a max of 2.9C and min of -1.4C then quite a cold option too

Member 22     Fri 26th March     850hpa temp -10.7C     2m temp day max 2.8C     night min -0.8C

The second Member 22 option is more anticyclonic but still cold with a max of 2.8C and min of -0.8C. More of a cold and sunny day here and a frosty night

Member 30     Fri 26th March     850hpa temp -10.3C     2m temp day max 4.7C     night min -2.1C

Finally member 30 and this one is a quite cold northerly with a chance of snow but less so than Member 22 first option or Member 12. A max of 4.7C isn't especially cold but the minimum is one of the coldest in the set at -2.1C

[SqueakheartLW]

Finally my last promised update on potential colder options. This time it is the 00z GEM. I will study the 06z GFS a little later and see if it has some decent colder options within it too and whether I will also post these too or not

Control     Sat 20th March     850hpa temp -8.6C     2m temp day max 4.5C     night min 2.7C

The GEM 00z control run continues a common theme seen in both the 18z and 00z GFS with high pressure just to our north and colder air blowing into England and Wales in particular. A max of 4.5C and min of 2.7C means fairly cold but not especially so.

Control     Fri 26th March     850hpa temp -10.7C     2m temp day max 3.3C     night min -1.6C

A bit more of an Arctic blast here on the second featuring of the control run. Looks like the high retrogresses out to the west and brings in even colder air with a max of 3.3C and a min of -1.6C. Snow could also feature here too.

Member 1     Tue 16th March     850hpa temp -8.2C     2m temp day max 5.3C     night min 0.2C

Member 1 here takes the honours in the fact it is featured 3 times in this update. Cold shot number 1 is very much an east UK only affair with a glancing blow from a European Arctic blast. A high of 5.3C and a min of 0.2C shows how we just missed out.

Member 1     Mon 22nd March     850hpa temp -9.9C     2m temp day max 1.4C     night min -0.3C

Member 1 makes up for it however with it's second cold blast as that cold Arctic air that came down into Europe is now blowing in our direction on a version of a beasterly. With a low max of 1.4C and a min of -0.3C then this could be a snow maker for eastern UK especially.

Member 1     Wed 24th March     850hpa temp -9.6C     2m temp day max 2.5C     night min -2.3C

The 3rd appearance of Member 1 is the cold spell's last hurrah with maxes of 2.5C and a min of -2.3C. This is more anticyclonic by this stage so more of a cold and frosty option by now.

Member 7     Thu 18th March     850hpa temp -9.8C     2m temp day max 6.1C     night min 2.8C

Member 7 is one of the least cold options with maxes of 6.1C and a min of 2.8C. Very much anticyclonic with ground frost at night and cool sunny days

Member 9     Thu 18th March     850hpa temp -8.5C     2m temp day max 5.8C     night min 3.5C

Member 9 gets two outings here and the first is anticyclonic and quite similar to Member 7 with cool days and ground frosts at night. A max of 5.8C and a min of 3.5C here.

Member 9     Sun 21st March     850hpa temp -9.3C     2m temp day max 3.2C     night min 2.0C

Member 9 does gets its act together for its second outing however as the high pulls out to the west and allows Arctic air in. This lowers the temperatures to a max of 3.2C and a min of 2.0C and brings an increased snow threat.

Member 6     Fri 19th March     850hpa temp -11.3C     2m temp day max 3.1C     night min -0.3C

Member 6's one and only appearance sees a cold easterly wind with a chance of snow showers. A max of 3.1C and a min of -0.3C is a definite last shot of winter here

Member 8     Fri 19th March     850hpa temp -10.1C     2m temp day max 3.5C     night min 1.2C

Member 8 is a more anticyclonic easterly but less cold than the last option with maxes of 3.5C and a min of 1,2C. Maybe a bit of cloud cover here with the not too low minimum

Member 5     Fri 19th March     850hpa temp -8.8C     2m temp day max 4.3C     night min 2.4C

Member 5 is quite anticyclonic, especially further west. The east may see some wintry weather. Maxes of 4.3C and mins of 2.4C are not especially cold however so not the best option in the set

Member 10     Mon 22nd March     850hpa temp -8.4C     2m temp day max 5.3C     night min 1.6C

Finally member 10 sees yet another anticyclonic option and fairly cold too but no way the coldest GEM 00z option. Wintry showers possible in the SE here and a max of 5.3C and a min of 1.6C means cold but not exceptionally so

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Possible surface analysis John, but as the ridge slides west

possible for sure but still a week away, I'll be happy so long as the winds do not come off the North Sea!

[Jordan S]

The unsettled weather continues especially so tonight and tomorrow as another low moves through England and Wales, the low more of a trough at first before becoming a closed area of low pressure as it moves across the country into the north sea in an east to east southeasterly trajectory with the central pressure dropping to probably around 976-977mb.

Strong winds developing for Wales and most of England tonight although probably less strong in most areas compared with yesterday.  Gusting to 35-45mph widely and more along parts of the coast and during this evening in the far southwest of England.

A slight tightening of the isobars probably occuring for eastern England, east anglia tomorrow morning possibly increasing the winds slightly more to 50mph at times for an hour or 2 in a few places.

Gfs..

Once this clears gradually turning drier through sunday and monday.

Next week same outlook an area of high pressure largely building and moving north in western areas and remaining through most of the week, a northeasterly wind likely by tuesday or wednesday for eastern and southern parts of England which will be quite cold and possibly bringing a few wintry showers by thursday which on a side note is actually my 22nd birthday although whether there is any precipitation in the south depends on the position of the high and rain is more likely if any does make it in, it will still be mostly dry though, mostly dry for Scotland, northern Ireland and northern England with sunshine at times though the chance of low cloud and possible mist and fog for a few.

High pressure centred to the west towards Ireland for much of the time monday-friday next week, mildest for western and northwestern areas with frosts probably more for southern and eastern areas. Largely dry conditions for many likely into next weekend too although possibly turning breezier in the north with milder air returning southwards to all including southern areas.

Edited March 12, 2021 by jordan smith

[minus10]

Yes cool is still the main theme for the next week or so. GFS 6z run maybe not as cool as previous runs with a chance of something warmer by 24th March...

 

However turns colder again towards the end of the run...

Still variations on a theme...

Happy birthday for Thursday Jordan. Struggle to remember when I was 22 as it is quite a while ago.....Enjoy your day whatever the weather.  

 

Edited March 12, 2021 by minus10

[minus10]

Quite a shift northwest with a more rounded high pressure on the gfs 12z compared to the 6z thus allowing more of the cold in around the eastern flank.....

Edited March 12, 2021 by minus10

[minus10]

As a result of that shift it stays cool to potentially cold for the rest of the run...

Just goes to show these shifts earlier on can have fairly big consequences for later and the 'feel' of the weather. I fear that if this verified dull cold and damp weather would be the order of the day. Not what most of us want. Still plenty of cold air around with any mild incursions limited. Of course this could change however this is a signal that is still showing. As is said often on here, more runs needed....

Edited March 12, 2021 by minus10

[minus10]

Cold theme maintained by latest ecm. Particularly on the 18th and again on the 22nd where cold air comes in to the south East. The HP seemingly stuck to the west thus allowing activity further east. The amplification of the jet heading north in the Atlantic being maintained. With the amount of cold around to the north in this period it will need quite a shift to get the warmer air back. However as we know spring can still give us many surprises....

 

[stodge]

Evening all

It seems Meteociel will be running a reduced service for most of next week - the priority, I imagine, is getting back the France-based charts and features.

Never mind - it looked last evening as though the weathe for the British isles was going to settle through next week with HP to the west or perhaps the north west so a mild enough flow for some western parts but a much chillier scenario for eastern Britain with a N'ly or perhaps NE'ly from a still cool if not cold North Sea.

However, life goes on as a wise person once said so let's see how ongoing the models look this evening:

T+144 is March 18th and T+240 March 22nd.

GEM:

 

ECM:

GFS OP:

GFS Parallel:

The pattern looks fairly set this week with heights building over or just to the west of Ireland but no sign now of any further ridging north as there is too much energy going over the top of the HP and inevitably it starts to sink back south or south west - GEM perhaps the most progressive, GFS OP least so by T+240 but overall it's a fairly quiet and benign prospect for the British Isles but a nagging N'ly or NW'ly will keep most parts on the cool side and perhaps more cloud and less sun than the basic synoptics might suggest. Control does try to build heights toward Greenland and its extended outlook keeps it distinctly cool over the British Isles with a N'ly component right out to the end of FI but OP keeps the HP meandering round close to the British Isles.

[damianslaw]

A locked in fairly cool-average spell of weather temperature wise, with heights generally over to the west of the UK and an airstream clockwise west to east, and no points south, mild air cut off from making inroads.

Despite high pressure coming on the scene next week, could be a rather cloudy affair at time, some bright weather but not a clean high.

Showery in the near term, perhaps some weak showery activity at times next week as well.

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

Cold theme maintained by latest ecm. Particularly on the 18th and again on the 22nd where cold air comes in to the south East. The HP seemingly stuck to the west thus allowing activity further east. The amplification of the jet heading north in the Atlantic being maintained. With the amount of cold around to the north in this period it will need quite a shift to get the warmer air back. However as we know spring can still give us many surprises....

 

Cold in the east perhaps but it may well be milder in western areas than it is currently. It feels pretty cold and blustery in NW England right now. The last couple of runs from the GFS and ECM have backed away from the idea of any seriously cold air making it to our shores.

I have a feeling it could end up being a fairly nondescript spell of weather next week with lighter winds but probably a lot of cloud around. Not great for anyone to be honest and certainly nothing to write home about in terms of cold temps.

[ribster]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Cold in the east perhaps but it may well be milder in western areas than it is currently. It feels pretty cold and blustery in NW England right now. The last couple of runs from the GFS and ECM have backed away from the idea of any seriously cold air making it to our shores.

I have a feeling it could end up being a fairly nondescript spell of weather next week with lighter winds but probably a lot of cloud around. Not great for anyone to be honest and certainly nothing to write home about in terms of cold temps.

Well if that's the case for cold, its doubly so for warmth, keep it coming please!

[Singularity]

Genuinely shocking ECM 00z - could hardly have aligned the pattern better for getting some very cold air across the south for a couple of days later in the week.

It’s that very rare kind of easterly that involves a positive AO throwing warm air advection due east along the northern flank of the ridge yet not flattening it fast enough that the cold air heads to out south.

So, caution advised for anyone still chasing such things. GFS and UKMO don’t have such eastward WAA, a more rounded high giving the UK more of a glancing blow. Little more than an irritating chill for most in the south - but maybe a brief snow chance in the southeast.

[Man With Beard]

Morning all, was quite surprised to wake up and see this forecast by the ECM for next Saturday

Other models may vary!

[ICE COLD]

No 1 and no 2 ECM ops going for it this morning -12 850s edging in

[feb1991blizzard]

@johnholmes How would you like to be in Kent if this verified, would be on a par with that one from the early 50's, bone chilling cold and a blizzard with high wind chill factor for so late in the season.

 

[minus10]

After a cool bleak period for many , particularly in the east over next week or so the gfs 6z now showing signs of warming up in the latter stage of March which will feel very nice in gentle SE wind.

The Gefs 6z  ensembles support this with a gradual climb in temps. The mean heading back towards 0 degrees with the operational at the top towards the end .

Edited March 13, 2021 by minus10

[damianslaw]

39 minutes ago, minus10 said:

After a cool bleak period for many , particularly in the east over next week or so the gfs 6z now showing signs of warming up in the latter stage of March which will feel very nice in gentle SE wind.

The Gefs 6z  ensembles support this with a gradual climb in temps. The mean heading back towards 0 degrees with the operational at the top towards the end .

A fair bit of uncertainty how the latter part of the month pans out. In the medium term, a chilly outlook, even cold for SE parts if today's models verify, with the high pressure toppling down but holding in situ pulling in a long drawn cold NE/E wind, further north drier and milder but chance of frost. Its where the high then decides to park itself which is uncertain - how it interplays with the jetstream. It may advect west and we draw in a cold northerly airstream, conversely we might see it drop SW and we draw in more of westerly airflow, which could quickly back northerly.. or as shown by GFS it may slip south into the continent and we end up drawing in a mild SW/South flow. 

We'll obviously know much better in a week's time. Expecting the models to play around with the position of the high, expect some extreme warm and cold outliers in the days ahead.

[Scorcher]

I'm looking forward to the warmup next week here...

A lot of people talking about 'colder' conditions- it's absolutely bitter here today in a strong, cold westerly wind.

Next week is going to be warmer around these parts than it is currently

[damianslaw]

31 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I'm looking forward to the warmup next week here...

A lot of people talking about 'colder' conditions- it's absolutely bitter here today in a strong, cold westerly wind.

Next week is going to be warmer around these parts than it is currently

Yes its a cold Saturday afternoon for March. Current temp just 6 degrees, and this looks the peak.

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

@johnholmes How would you like to be in Kent if this verified, would be on a par with that one from the early 50's, bone chilling cold and a blizzard with high wind chill factor for so late in the season.

 

Dec-Feb, any other time no thanks

 

[phil nw.]

Current chill from the west being replaced by a chill from the east as a high builds next week and sits just to our west ridging towards Scandinavia.

A cold ne wind setting up with  -5c uppers spreading west across the n.sea.Max's down to mid-single figures for many so a switch to warmer weather weather is still on hold by the looks of it.

Edited March 13, 2021 by phil nw.

[Mike Poole]

GFS // T192:

Meteociel are gradually restoring more models, but thank Christ they have prioritised the CMA, here 0z at T240:

Just as a direction of travel, i like the Azores ridge extension on these charts, we will need this later if we’re going to get a decent summer, and the effect of this sort of pattern now on SSTs is relevant too...

 

[Frosty.]

WOW @ T+384 GFS 12z operational..Just WOW!..who said winter is over?!  ️ 

Edited March 13, 2021 by Jon Snow