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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The ECM ends with this...

    ECMOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.22cb5f5cf8f932c7c28524b684fc567d.pngECMOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.541b607a4737eb673d6332b96b7b89eb.png

    ...a possible northerly?

    these northerly and easterlies keep on cropping up on the models,...will we get one last hit?

    stay tuned.

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

     

    27 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    The ECM ends with this...

    ECMOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.22cb5f5cf8f932c7c28524b684fc567d.pngECMOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.541b607a4737eb673d6332b96b7b89eb.png

    ...a possible northerly?

    these northerly and easterlies keep on cropping up on the models,...will we get one last hit?

    stay tuned.

    Yes Allseasons,

    This ecm 12z reminds me of the gfs 6z with the same progression.

    image.thumb.png.42a16d522c425b2d95875f26afd8e25d.png

    image.thumb.png.50b721c5c3e03575bb40ac46fe1254f2.png

     

    You do get the feeling that something is stirring re it turning colder again. The signal has been fairly consistent albeit variations on the theme....

    Edited by minus10
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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
    39 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    The ECM ends with this...

    ECMOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.22cb5f5cf8f932c7c28524b684fc567d.pngECMOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.541b607a4737eb673d6332b96b7b89eb.png

    ...a possible northerly?

    these northerly and easterlies keep on cropping up on the models,...will we get one last hit?

    stay tuned.

    Meh no thanks give me the less amplified solution from the Midnight run looks more likely to give the UK finer weather especially after all the wind and rain this week. 

    Edited by Summerstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    Well, I hadn't realised poor Meteociel had a fire and lost four servers but I draw comfort from the fact servers can be replaced.

    Looking at old Wetterzentrale, some interesting trends developing for next week and the first is the push of heights to the west of the British Isles which was first posited by GEM I think while other models were keeping the core of heights to the east and while that's no distance, it has a huge impact on the British Isles. Heights to the west and north west offer the possibility of northerlies and north easterlies and these won't be warm at this time of the year. 

    First, GEM at T+144 (March 17th) and T+240 (March 21st):

    image.thumb.png.e4179d07c2855c999cf451b2cdb7640b.pngimage.thumb.png.d7435636edec69251a7a4194cba76dfc.png

    Now, ECM at the same time:

    image.thumb.png.d4c023df660b52bac271a2b82187546c.pngimage.thumb.png.a3d688f038c74a63dc57cc86ca9de840.png

    GFS OP:

    image.thumb.png.3b8fa916a72ddf12b1ddaf21f302a05b.pngimage.thumb.png.d17f41e27e3a7b4aaa6bd4f750af1636.png

    Finally Parallel:

    image.thumb.png.4520573629e3a99ba73a7a1028968bda.pngimage.thumb.png.86d88de1bcd9da1bd2f910fa01d70a37.png

    The T+144 evolution looks pretty set with HP to the west or north west - we're not talking an advection of severe Siberian cold by any stretch but for eastern parts a cooler air source. From there, plenty of options as the HP relaxes again and it's interesting GEM and ECM have a better defined Scandinavian trough. We don't tonight have raging SW'lies or a long fetch S'ly so plenty of interest for cold fans as we move further into March.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    I'm ready for some warm Spring  weather now but models really show a shacky start to Spring yes some hints of warmth but the overall theme is colder rather than milder in the extended outlook although with these situations drier than average which I don't think anyone will complain about !!!...

    ecmt850.144-3.png

    h850t850eu-13.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Yes ^ a few words about Meteociel from me. 

    There have been a few things that have kept me reasonably sane during this horrendous period, and one of them is of course this forum, both the weather threads (including this one), and the covid threads.  Another is Meteociel.  

    As someone who uses Meteociel every day to look at the models, ensembles, archive charts, radar, SSTs, the whole lot because I rate it as the best bar none, the news about the fire is awful, and I hope they can get things back up and running in due course.  

    Why do I prefer Meteociel over other websites for the model charts?  Well, its unmatched for the sheer number of models it runs, plots of archive charts in the same style, innovative probabilistic presentations from the ensembles, and.....I just like the colours - no pastel shades here, primary colours that make extreme weather look like extreme weather on the charts.  

    Get well soon, Meteociel.

    Its the NH format why i think its the best, better resolution graphics than the others.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Its the NH format why i think its the best, better resolution graphics than the others.

    Yes, the NH view is an absolute must for winter!!  In summer, the Europe view is usually sufficient because of the shorter wavelengths.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Its the NH format why i think its the best, better resolution graphics than the others.

    I use Meteociel for GEFS and EC/UKMO, GFS is on netweather chart viewer, just as well no cold as Meteociel is off

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    I use Meteociel for GEFS and EC/UKMO, GFS is on netweather chart viewer, just as well no cold as Meteociel is off

    On the North Atlantic and Europe view - Netweather is easily the best, tbh there is only 2 reasons why i switched to meteociel, the first being the ECM didn't used to come out in frames on Netweather, just all came out at the end at 5 to seven, and the NH view in winter so you can see upstream and the polar field so you can see any potential wave breaking into the strat, but at first didn't really know anything about the strat so didn't need it, just left that to others.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    As a cold lover wanting a last late taste of winter the 12z GFS has a few members that have caught my eye but I have picked out the overall coldest member and another member that looks remarkable at one point in its run

    Member 22     Fri Mar 19th 12pm     850hpa temp -11.3C     2m temp 2.3C

    image.thumb.png.e6770fa8bfd24ed5c0ba1a707bbadf1e.pngimage.thumb.png.a29a4b8b549bb03378584aa7541ff8c3.pngimage.thumb.png.273e6f081b028449fba567d3017f9127.png

    When looking at the 500mb chart you would probably think it would be a chilly day with below average temperatures but what came as a shock to me was just how cold the 850hpa temps were in this setup as well as the 2m temps. To have 850hpa temps at -11.3C and the daytime max at just 2.3C is quite remarkable for a NW wind. No doubt this could be quite an unexpected snowy setup.

    Member 8     Tue Mar 23rd 6am     850hpa temp -13.1C

    image.thumb.png.8de234efc45bf5d494b71ad17bbb615d.pngimage.thumb.png.09bbf26d16235f832c3780172d7fb5f1.pngimage.thumb.png.cab40e4445e0ca8c124312bed72833de.png

    Now onto the more solid cold member 8. This is the first of two main Arctic blasts in this member. The first one peaks here in terms of cold uppers at -13.1C. Probably not that snowy away from exposed coasts at this time of the day however but probably a widespread frost to greet all in the morning

    Member 8     Tue Mar 23rd 12pm     850hpa temp -12.9C     2m temp 1.8C

    image.thumb.png.25879fd027458f8d1a4433ebd707f3ab.pngimage.thumb.png.ea560cbfefe30f0c2cdb32e65a1065a7.pngimage.thumb.png.f76e0f62ce1372f3aeccd9958338a0c3.png

    By this time snow showers will have no doubt started to develop inland in the land based convection caused by the relatively strong late March sunshine. The 850hpa temps are slightly less cold but the surface temperatures peak at a low 1.8C

    Member 8     Fri Mar 26th 6am     850hpa temp -15.3C

    image.thumb.png.544a7474e452d8fa3e090c277d50e665.pngimage.thumb.png.12defc446754c8f901ec0233f823f5d4.pngimage.thumb.png.d0570e85e8ea8bf1848900d73d7cc70c.png

    The second Arctic blast arrives on Member 8 around Friday March 26th and here the 850hpa temps peak at -15.3C which is the coldest 850hpa temp on the entire GFS 12z run across all members. No doubt cold and frosty at this point of the day with some snow possible on exposed coastlines

    Member 8     Fri Mar 26th 12pm     850hpa temp -12.5C     2m temp 1.2C

    image.thumb.png.37613da195c11d3a931f37f28c957f84.pngimage.thumb.png.60c8e4e8cf908affe83de9a749b3f634.pngimage.thumb.png.f0964de94449140c36501f8bf13fdeab.png

    The setup here looks ideal for further convective snow showers to develop and with 850hpa temps less cold at -12.5C and surface temps at a cold 1.2C as a maximum then this looks perfect. However pressure is building from the west so any snow shower activity is likely to be increasingly limited to more eastern areas as the day progresses and no doubt quite a hard frost would follow under the high pressure night to follow

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Well it is interesting isn’t it, that there seems to be a trend to a high migrating to the NW of the UK in some recent runs, here is the // pub run (the only main global model now available on Meteociel) at T162:

    E67BB2DE-B12C-4556-9AB2-CA866319FB11.thumb.png.9ab8a1f724ec6a75aecea76998bdf808.png

    One last cold chance coming into the reliable???  Been on several GFS // runs now...

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Well it is interesting isn’t it, that there seems to be a trend to a high migrating to the NW of the UK in some recent runs, here is the // pub run (the only main global model now available on Meteociel) at T162:

    E67BB2DE-B12C-4556-9AB2-CA866319FB11.thumb.png.9ab8a1f724ec6a75aecea76998bdf808.png

    One last cold chance coming into the reliable???  Been on several GFS // runs now...

    Snow for the SE on the op run.

    image.thumb.png.7bb734a91ef4ce401f096a5453c4b90d.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Just taking cursory glances at the models at present. Definite shifts today towards heights backing west early next week rather than centering over the UK, a chilly easterly feed, before a potent northerly possibly. Would not be surprised to see a blast of arctic air in the not too distant future. There are hints this is the direction of travel in the pattern this weekend. The NW airstream digging in longer than expected into Monday now.. 

    In the immediate cool showery airstream, cold enough for snow down to modest levels in the north. Still feels very much winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    image.thumb.png.442d7f9decb7349c3c466a72005cb661.png

    Not nice on this day. I would imagine raw NE wind with cold rain or maybe sleet showers.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    The changing of the seasons...
    Southern Ireland up to 16c, S/SW England and Wales up to 12-14c....a biting easterly in eastern England holding temps back to only 4-5c in places.
    image.thumb.png.238362d1fd6b18c95af09a34218a5992.png


    A cool and mainly dry/settled theme on the GFS ensembles too from early next week out towards the end of March:


    image.thumb.png.04a073359d3dc21d4a4783a9f65d5566.pngimage.thumb.png.5a183e1fb6364ab5f05ba8fddcae2f23.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    I sense your potential to bring Spring young Padawan. 

     

    gens-0-1-132.png

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    21 hours ago, johnholmes said:

    Oh joy back to winds off the North Sea by the look of model outputs. Gawd do I hate them; often dull/overcast and feeling b cold. Yuk.

    And confirmed by all 3 too mb anomaly charts, including the 8-14, can't be bothered to show them but you all know where they are-sorry

     

    Looks like they wont last too long though...

     

    814day.03fridays.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    16 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    Looks like they wont last too long though...

     

    814day.03fridays.gif

    I certainly hope not mushy but the 6-10 day last evening had +ve heights of,?, 270DM NW of Ireland. The 8-14 almost always 'waters' down the 6-10. But it has the same contour pattern and its watered down +ve heights are in much the same place.

    The sooner the ridge pattern it shows gives way to an Atlantic flow, (not a strong one), the more I will like it! Not a popular post with the coldies but never mind!

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    As there are so many colder options in the 18z and 00z GFS and the 00z GEM then there's a lot to get through here so I have split this up into a post for each run. I will begin with the 18z GFS

    18z GFS

    Member 15     Sat 20th March     850hpa temp -11.9C     2m temp day max 3.9C     night min -0.3C

    image.thumb.png.d5d2cfae53a93a2e5102f8b89c3525a0.pngimage.thumb.png.7a5f560e88bcdb095c6c317f0194baad.pngimage.thumb.png.9b29ff7f74b8ebca5f5fb5c3d93a096e.png

    This is the first member that dips to -10C at 850hpa or lower and is a short Arctic blast. Looks like a showery northerly so snow could be playing a part here. Due to quite windy conditions minimums aren't that low but the cold air means a low daytime maximum too.

    Member 5      Sat 20th March     850hpa temp -10.5C     2m temp day max 3.9C     night min 1.4C

    image.thumb.png.fb41176959044a0ad8d7cea01570e9bd.pngimage.thumb.png.11013ebe9b386fdbc65a315fe6c0e779.pngimage.thumb.png.32f0e25d722614c53ec071e8de9af1c5.png

    The first of two cold shots on Member 5. This first one is an easterly which could have potential to give a little snow but overall is less cold than the northerly option. The daytime max is similar but the overnight min is above freezing

    Member 5     Thu 25th March     850hpa temp -11.3C      2m temp day max 1.1C     night min -1.0C

    image.thumb.png.724d2686b20957283d6f167792c208bf.pngimage.thumb.png.981d17abd659a7e681be50006872ccc4.pngimage.thumb.png.4e601fbc03729fa0dff0caa1b3beb9f7.png

    The second shot of cold is a NE wind bringing colder air than the initial easterly did. Snow showers more of a risk here in the reload cold and with a daytime max of 1.1C and overnight min of -1.0C then this is the coldest option so far

    Member 10     Sun 21st March     850hpa temp -10.6C     2m temp day max 7.0C     night min 1.1C

    image.thumb.png.20b5c1d8818abb32a955e3a41ddb0292.pngimage.thumb.png.980a71fc0d3c205cd8ce13f70acd8a52.pngimage.thumb.png.82bcbabcaf6006467f0e88586a2fb613.png

    The next colder looking option is a bit deceptive and is less cold than it initially looks. Maybe wintry showers here in favoured locations but with a max of 7.0C and min of 1.1C then this is the least cold option so far in the 18z GFS

    Member 16     Mon 22nd March     850hpa temp -12.1C     2m temp day max 1.9C     night min -1.7C

    image.thumb.png.b6caa16d43e2c4b707ce63a2cddba919.pngimage.thumb.png.9f83d2b32b4a36aad77dcf4af6cd2234.pngimage.thumb.png.4f57d2d5aa2fb1f78fdc919463dedc46.png

    Member 16's first shot at cold comes on Mon 22nd March. This one is likely to feature snow showers from the NE and with a max of 1.9C and a min of -1.7C then very much on a par with Member 25 for levels of cold and is only just behind that one in the list in 2nd so far with shot number 1

    Member 16     Wed 24th March     850hpa temp -12.3     2m temp day max 3.9C     night min -2.4C

    image.thumb.png.ce170078991c9e1788a95a9b68e649a1.pngimage.thumb.png.61a69bdc00cbba81b000834fc3127cd5.pngimage.thumb.png.ab55dc28fea48b4ee015279ac799fb29.png

    Member 16's second shot of cold is a more direct Arctic hit. Further snow showers likely here but overall a little less cold than the first shot of cold due to the higher daytime max of 3.9C but this one does feature the coldest overnight min so far of -2.4C

    Member 7     Mon 22nd March     850hpa temp -11.7C     2m temp day max 4.0C     night min -3.4C

    image.thumb.png.07ab7620fc46cc4f21b008308f49caed.pngimage.thumb.png.8737e8208dd1e35672ef280648ef986c.pngimage.thumb.png.a6dd45f31e6581ba7c07769b41d57ee6.png

    A cold anticyclonic option for Member 7 here meaning frosty by night and cold by day. A max of 4.0C and a min of -3.4C means not the coldest option so far daytime wise but the coldest overnight period so far.

    Member 25     Wed 24th March     850hpa temp -10.8C     2m temp day max 4.9C     night min -1.7C

    image.thumb.png.b9ecf6457adaee6d2f11a17a88a08b0e.pngimage.thumb.png.8339f5818eed8627ed53f4c09881cfd0.pngimage.thumb.png.bee915db0d0a94e872dbd88de58322e3.png

    Member 25 is the next one that features a decent colder looking shot. This one is another anticyclonic easterly but less cold than the first example of this. A max of 4.9C and min of -1.7C means cold but not exceptionally so

    Member 12     Wed 24th March     850hpa temp -15.8C     2m temp day max 2.4C     night min -4.0C

    image.thumb.png.68254ca9c6d62bbe7f62d6907f6584c4.pngimage.thumb.png.2cd40a553740a5bfdfb7abc02fca610e.pngimage.thumb.png.c1fbf71ac48c24b2ef45c8ed2354e4a1.png

    The final option in the 18z GFS that features decent cold is Member 12. This one is a direct Arctic hit that will very likely feature snow showers. This one has the coldest 850hpa temps of all the options at -15.8C. This translates into a cold 2.4C daytime max but it is the overnight min that is the coldest on all the options I have featured at -4.0C

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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