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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
    4 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Still some eye catching ens and one of them going close to that good old Vortex bomb drop,to coin a phrase from the Express! I'm aware many are giving in the chase now,not me...another 4 weeks yet,I have a duty to my cold loving Family both on here and blood relatives to carry this chase on...Yes it may be indefatigable but I've got stamina baby 😉

     

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    Keep going Matt always hoping 👍🏻

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    Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

    The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

    Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    I’d love to keep dreaming of deep snow drifts and ice days but once you get into March it takes something very special. A starting point is to look for uppers dipping to -10 and I can’t see any chance of that I’m afraid. Still hopeful of seeing some falling snow in March but I’ve given up on deep,  crisp and even for now...

    E13FF7CD-AFC0-488F-95FB-7FBC70FECD91.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy days and long hot summer days with a big overnight thunderstorm
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK

    A very spring like week coming up for many parts of the UK especially on Wednesday!📈 Remember that the GFS tends to undercook temperatures so you can add a degree or 2 onto those charts!

    1854266376_GFS1.thumb.PNG.0739a78575e6671d425d37b78d3573e4.PNG1530257942_GFS2.thumb.PNG.fe479d3fe763c007a02ce5a47cbdd137.PNG252237414_GFS3.thumb.PNG.c5c64773eb180a96d6a1e1b349909151.PNG351846741_GFS4.thumb.PNG.b5b3cc0e037f1dfe347cd089b329d6ea.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    2 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Slowly, slowly catching the amplified signal, 240 & //

    ECH1-240.gif

    ECH1-240 (1).gif

    The decrease in activity in this thread over a little more than one week is as big as the difference in weather here between last Sunday and today. Last weekend I went skating on the lakes nearby with subzero temps, today it was 16c with flowering snowdrops and crocuses and all the lakes and canals are fluid again.

    Still, there are interesting things in the output for coldies.
    It's funny how the charts you show would only take a few little tweaks to bring the deep cold West again.
    Could it happen?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    It's hard to think just two weeks ago the evening output was promising an extended cold spell for the British Isles. 14 days later and the mildies have won the day and the rest of the month and, to be frank, on the basis of last night's output, there wasn't much hope for early March either with the current fairly settled and benign spell set to continue and extending to those areas which have been drenched in recent days.

    Let's see what tonight's tea leaves tell us:

    T+144 is February 27th, T+240 is March 3rd, T+312 is March 6th and T+384 is March 9th.

    T+144:  (GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel respectively:

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    T+240 (GEM, ECM and GFS OP only):

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    GEM goes it alone tonight and that may or may not be significant. It's a model I've always rated and it has at times picked up trends before some of the other models. The key to the evolution  is at T+180 when the heights over north western Europe phase with heights further east and that enables the Scandinavian block to form. The other models keep too energy in the northern arm for that to happen and any attempt is quickly flattened with the HP sinking back towards the British Isles. Other than that, a very settled and benign outlook for most well into March. Some warm days but cold nights with frosts and perhaps fog especially if the core of the heights ends up over the British Isles.

    Moving on, the T+312 and T+384 charts from GFS OP, Control and CFS this evening as Parallel seems to be on a go-slow:

    T+312:

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    T+384:

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    Not without interest in the deepest realms of FO albeit very contrasting evolutions from GFS OP and Control. I actually found Control's evolution the more convincing while CFS keeps it all very anticyclonic though a prelude to quite a sharp colder snap around mid March.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM mean T240, 1030 high slap bang over UK.  Once you get 1030 on the mean, it is as good as it gets to being nailed on at that range:

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    So looks like a dry and mild start to March now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
    11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM mean T240, 1030 high slap bang over UK.  Once you get 1030 on the mean, it is as good as it gets to being nailed on at that range:

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    So looks like a dry and mild start to March now.

    That will do me....perfect fishing weather 😊

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 15c (the sunnier the better!)
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

    Good evening all, as others have mentioned a real spring like feel to things both currently and in the forecasts. 

    I've attached the latest GFS ensembles for London and can't believe how close they're all are! FI? What FI?!

    Funny how just before or during cold spells the wheels can come off just like that, but during a mild spell you can basically bank it at 10 days. Looks like the mild is 'locked in and nailed', but at least it won't be super wet!

    Obviously several weeks of cold potential to go, but let's face it any cold would only be a 48hr Northerly, which in March or April isn't that exciting....

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Always impressed by the differences with gfs op vs parallel even fairly early on... 138

    gfsnh-0-138 (1).png

    gfsnh-0-138.png

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    And at 180...

    So just to make me look silly, they're fairly similar. Makes a change. 

    gfsnh-0-180.png

    gfsnh-0-180 (1).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 minutes ago, Griff said:

    And by day 10... I'll take the para, ta

    gfsnh-0-240 (1).png

    gfsnh-0-240.png

    Not much sign of a cold snap!

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    5 minutes ago, Don said:

    Not much sign of a cold snap!

    Agreed, and this run is looking very different to the previous. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    11 minutes ago, DavidS said:

    Both GFS and ECM showing possibilities of high pressure pushing north of the UK. 

    GEM, ecm and GFSP 👀, gfs op on the other hand 🤷‍♂️... 😜

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    ECH1-240 (2).gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh

    Sunny, dry and early spring like conditions it looks as we go into March, I'll take that !

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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