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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    GFS // T276, high a little too close to us here, but at that timescale a lot can change:

    FBA30495-3ED5-433C-BB6E-093343F68E8C.thumb.png.47ac445e32d810ff402ca91ecbe8f73c.png4BCAD17E-BE3F-4281-9AA9-5A7E1EFD227E.thumb.png.5e08c9a3c26e2517a62276b853111fe8.png

    Important thing is another run that develops the easterly.  

    I know where my preferences lie (big hint, it involves blizzards and drifting snow) but failing anything else, these are great charts for the end of winter and for something a bit different than early April showers. Even without improvements this would be satisfying. 

    👍

    Edited by Griff
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    Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

    The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

    Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The GEFS 0z mean is trending nicely towards an anticyclonic end to February and early March, benign / pleasant surface conditions under the strengthening early spring sunshine and lengthening days...this is also true of the GFS 0z operational, however, looking at the bigger NH picture, there’s still plenty of cold potential to tap into to keep coldies interested!...but the main point of my post is that there looks to be a generally settled spell coming in the not too distant future, at least across the southern half of the u k! 😜 ☀️
    61F60532-4D99-4023-933F-D6BD16954722.thumb.png.0bad0e5f5d38775f27aba4cf1c1c2984.png744AF4D8-3750-4F47-A6AC-4BA8912C807D.thumb.png.d5b54558de9cedf77e2b4eb440fb8b9a.png2713F5A1-F359-416A-B6DB-3A66AC4CDCC7.thumb.png.35b116432e909301aed4f3cf9d5f82ee.pngDC82C581-C183-40F1-806E-7F3A94C44A6B.thumb.png.c2092d4569e565de52c12b64ae54dec1.png71239933-086E-4848-ACBD-FF3967ACE3AC.thumb.png.7a4d2ff6f3bedae15ce9896aa7b6a211.png43CF8095-3820-438B-BD37-774C4FFD5D53.thumb.png.43ed339c397805c20836d0a98f8f63de.png 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    No compelling evidence from the nwp that the ridging can gain enough traction north to deliver any meaningful March cold to our shores but higher up, the predicted strat picture is of a vortex evacuation of Canada ( looks like a run back to ne Asia)  and rising anoms to our nw 

    It could well be that we do see the ridges getting further north as we head through week 2 of March. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    39 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    No compelling evidence from the nwp that the ridging can gain enough traction north to deliver any meaningful March cold to our shores but higher up, the predicted strat picture is of a vortex evacuation of Canada ( looks like a run back to ne Asia)  and rising anoms to our nw 

    It could well be that we do see the ridges getting further north as we head through week 2 of March. 

    Yes Blue. GFS has its usual stock of post 300 hours teases.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    13 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM clusters.  The T192-T240 showed only 1 cluster so that doesn’t tell us anything.  Move on to the timeframe into march T264-T360 and we have this:

    8FD3BC9C-4896-426F-8BB6-9019734D5974.thumb.png.6edf00130e60e2b8e311884bd87470a2.png

    All red borders, bar frame 2 of the 3rd one, first of all.  So Scandi block of the four scenarios.  The first one looks the best bet for a block that could develop an easterly, second is UK high, third could be promising with a bit of a shift north.  

    Still in the game for a cold first half of March in my opinion.  Nothing guaranteed of course, it is a reasonable chance...

     i must get some new glasses then, because i cant see any proper Scandinavian block on those charts. Could one evolve?.. of course, but imho i cant see anything there to get hopes up for.
     

    12 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

    Just got a bread roll and sausages out the freezer for tomorrow morning, thanks to that post!  😁

    It wouldn’t surprise me if one of the pub run brothers throws out a decent cold run again tonight.  This isn’t resolved yet.  Whatever the anomaly charts say!  The signal from the strat is still there, NAM plot, yes it is weaker than the last one, as would be expected, but at the surface it could deliver.  However it’s a plot showing -AO NH wide at the surface, no guarantee at all about how that translates to the UK, here be dragons!

    20C5C463-AED2-4AC2-BBDD-F71D339AD9AA.thumb.jpeg.d5373a5ac07b5264c89fb8eb7c0332fc.jpeg

     


    Sorry, not having a go at you, lol, but the NAM chart you posted a few days ago had that last? weak surface easterly on March 1st. Now its put back, to me....and i might be wrong... it only looks like a short lived weak affair, if it happens at all.

    Theres still no real sign on these charts of anything unusually cold, although we might pick up a cold, dry, grey southeasterly off this chart? IMHO if anyones expecting a repeat (or anything close) of March 2018 then you will be bitterly disappointed.

     

    814day.03sat20th.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The ECM 0z ensemble mean has an increasingly settled / pleasant look to it longer term, especially across the southern half of the u k as high pressure builds in....to me, it looks even better than the op!...I think most of us would / will welcome 🙏 some dry and sunny weather following all the rain, localised flooding issues and strong winds!😜 🌞 

    7FAF2182-4C7D-4442-9AFF-9B71C158B70D.thumb.gif.3b60ac61a281cc1d462e119eb598f517.gifF0C5AE9F-25E3-4BEB-B7FB-EAB42C4E8520.thumb.gif.936b92e8a9c96b09e5d91724f68b196d.gif38B40819-7057-4554-97B6-9E49BAD745A5.thumb.gif.9db673925607f5a3d1fa3d88b864736f.gifCE6E9689-8A19-4191-A3A8-6D485403B8C5.thumb.gif.df1e177d8cc802a1dc90d868b1bc2105.gif

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    9 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    Sorry, not having a go at you, lol, but the NAM chart you posted a few days ago had that last? weak surface easterly on March 1st. Now its put back, to me....and i might be wrong... it only looks like a short lived weak affair, if it happens at all.
     

    Hi mushy, the negative values are showing a -AO at the surface, but that doesn’t necessarily mean a -NAO and an easterly for the UK, of course. But it does at least allow the possibility, and that’s all we can expect at the moment, some model runs are showing it, but not many so far.

    Re the clusters, the red border indicates Scandi block, as one of 4 broad patterns the cluster best fits.  (The others being +NAO, -NAO and atlantic ridge).  Maybe I’m putting too much emphasis on this, but the actual chart shown is only 1 representative member of a cluster of many possibilities, so I think it is worth noting both the border colour and the representative member shown.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    Looks likes it's going to be a fine line between a UK high and a high that gets far enough North in early March.

    Para trying to move it north here at day 11. South coast/channel islands may be best placed in this scenario

    gfsnh-0-270 (3).png

    gfsnh-1-270 (2).png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Doesn’t look very spectacular but something like this could give a covering for some..

    B1C65056-C20B-4A01-A9F8-02034B860F3A.png

    DB88D744-5AAA-4825-87E0-56DEA810CF02.png

    AB34246C-ECD2-4061-831C-8AD4657B09C9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

     i must get some new glasses then, because i cant see any proper Scandinavian block on those charts. Could one evolve?.. of course, but imho i cant see anything there to get hopes up for.
     


    Sorry, not having a go at you, lol, but the NAM chart you posted a few days ago had that last? weak surface easterly on March 1st. Now its put back, to me....and i might be wrong... it only looks like a short lived weak affair, if it happens at all.

    Theres still no real sign on these charts of anything unusually cold, although we might pick up a cold, dry, grey southeasterly off this chart? IMHO if anyones expecting a repeat (or anything close) of March 2018 then you will be bitterly disappointed.

     

    814day.03sat20th.gif

    And this morning's ext mean anomalies support this

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4988800.thumb.png.5073670e284c4e05c3f427e548da5fc1.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4988800.thumb.png.26b36aaddebcd684ec575a115d38bc8f.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-4988800.thumb.png.3c460e0bbde82a44d7b0c9683af4fb2a.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-4988800.thumb.png.f24c24ae68865e4a24d9d31c04cecc7e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

    It could well be that we do see the ridges getting further north as we head through week 2 of March. 

    It seems to be that familiar story of any potential cold being put back?

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    6 minutes ago, Don said:

    It seems to be that familiar story of any potential cold being put back?

    A 500 mile shift is tiny on the global scale, but will have big impacts on the surface weather for the UK.

    The anomaly charts above favour the high to be over Northern England/ Scotland in the 8-14 period, but these are subject to change just like the OP runs are.

    To have any chance of a cold spell we need low pressure attacking the base of the high so it doesn't sink.

    Attached a few GEFS options for day 10

    gensnh-0-1-240 (1).png

    gensnh-2-1-240.png

    gensnh-14-1-240.png

    gensnh-16-1-240.png

    gensnh-17-1-240.png

    gensnh-19-1-240.png

    gensnh-26-1-240.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cold Rain City, Essex
  • Location: Cold Rain City, Essex
    28 minutes ago, Don said:

    It seems to be that familiar story of any potential cold being put back?

    There's always a beast in FI, well nearly always. I never take much notice past +240. In my opinion it would actually be healthy not to have beyond +240. 

    For the next 10 days it seems the weather is set to be mild. Double digits in the south and virtually frost free, especially in the south.

    Edited by Robbie Coldrain
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    Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
    1 hour ago, Robbie Coldrain said:

    There's always a beast in FI, well nearly always. I never take much notice past +240. In my opinion it would actually be healthy not to have beyond +240. 

    For the next 10 days it seems the weather is set to be mild. Double digits in the south and virtually frost free, especially in the south.

    Interesting take on things, not sure how there can always be a beast in FI, in fact not sure there's any talk of a beast anyway. Of more significance is perhaps the rain in the west, I suspect they don't give a jot whether its 7c or 12c.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    2 hours ago, knocker said:

    And this morning's ext mean anomalies support this

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4988800.thumb.png.5073670e284c4e05c3f427e548da5fc1.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4988800.thumb.png.26b36aaddebcd684ec575a115d38bc8f.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-4988800.thumb.png.3c460e0bbde82a44d7b0c9683af4fb2a.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-4988800.thumb.png.f24c24ae68865e4a24d9d31c04cecc7e.png

    There's mild air established over the UK and we know from the experience of 95% of the winters we've experienced, how hard it can be to shift........... 😃 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Quiet in here over past few days and probably likely to stay so given current pattern unlikely to shift significantly in the days ahead.

    What have we? A bit of a stalemate situation, robust euro heights blocking a weak-moderate Atlantic but with enough power to it that enables fronts to move across the country but becoming unstuck, hence, lengthy wet spells for parts.

    Also means a predominantly SW airflow for another week before signs heights may nudge into the UK cutting off the SW flow, and bringing generally more settled conditions for most away from far NW, and a return to some much welcomed sunshine, but also fog and frost.

    March looks likely to start on a benign 'lamb's note, with sunshine, dry weather, chilly nights and under a strengthening sunshine and light winds, quite pleasant days.

    In the meantime the rather drab dank mild outlook will see a winter out that has been much more entertaining than many a recent one, the most since 2012-13, in my view.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
    8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Quiet in here over past few days and probably likely to stay so given current pattern unlikely to shift significantly in the days ahead.

    What have we? A bit of a stalemate situation, robust euro heights blocking a weak-moderate Atlantic but with enough power to it that enables fronts to move across the country but becoming unstuck, hence, lengthy wet spells for parts.

    Also means a predominantly SW airflow for another week before signs heights may nudge into the UK cutting off the SW flow, and bringing generally more settled conditions for most away from far NW, and a return to some much welcomed sunshine, but also fog and frost.

    March looks likely to start on a benign 'lamb's note, with sunshine, dry weather, chilly nights and under a strengthening sunshine and light winds, quite pleasant days.

    In the meantime the rather drab dank mild outlook will see a winter out that has been much more entertaining than many a recent one, the most since 2012-13, in my view.

    There is still a possibility that this winter could overall come out as the coldest since 2012-13; if the February CET comes in at 4.8 or lower then this winter will still just beat 2017-18 and be the coldest for eight years, although all in all winter 2017-18 will likely overall be a very average winter.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    Just now, North-Easterly Blast said:

    There is still a possibility that this winter could overall come out as the coldest since 2012-13; if the February CET comes in at 4.8 or lower then this winter will still just beat 2017-18 and be the coldest for eight years, although all in all winter 2017-18 will likely overall be a very average winter.  

    That would be quite fitting, as I feel despite the beast from the east in Feb 18, this winter has been the most 'wintry' since 2012-13, bufnot quite on the same scale as that one.

    Incidentally not sure who used to post it, but would be good to see where this winter ranks on the 'winter index'.. based on Mancheser I think.. suspect somewhere close to 17-18.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    42 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    That would be quite fitting, as I feel despite the beast from the east in Feb 18, this winter has been the most 'wintry' since 2012-13, bufnot quite on the same scale as that one.

    Incidentally not sure who used to post it, but would be good to see where this winter ranks on the 'winter index'.. based on Mancheser I think.. suspect somewhere close to 17-18.

    Mr Data i think..

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    5 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

    Doesn’t look very spectacular but something like this could give a covering for some..

    B1C65056-C20B-4A01-A9F8-02034B860F3A.png

    DB88D744-5AAA-4825-87E0-56DEA810CF02.png

    AB34246C-ECD2-4061-831C-8AD4657B09C9.png

    Indeed Tim that would be nice for those of us in snow starved Wessex who are still awaiting our first decent snowfall of the winter

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Got to love the GFSP, filed under "I" for interesting charts (see above). 

    Perhaps not cold and snowy, but I approve 👍

    gfsnh-0-210.png

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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