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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    No, see my post, I specifically stated this can’t ruled out until late March.

    My apologies Mike, I didn't read the post properly and just focused on the summer charts! 🙄

    Edited by Don
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    Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

    The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

    Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    17 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    I've worked hard trying to put a selection of colder ensembles together, the 12s was less optimistic but I still feel confident something much colder will pay us 1 more visit before we enter the Mid March period.

     

    Thanks Matt.  Unfortunately the roller coaster remains out of action for now..... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    42 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    These charts do show heights over the Pole, so if heights do ridge and build over the UK there is a good chance they will be pulled north.

    The rest of the month is doing a Feb 2009 and 2012 on us! Perhaps later in the month there will be a trend to more average temperatures. The more immediate shows the atlantic having a bit more power in it - and pushing the ridge aside a bit, NW parts largely unsettled and cooler at time, the very mild drier conditions only reserved for SE parts.

    Would welcome others views on longer term trends based on AAM, MJO and Nina state as well as PV development - I would not expect at this stage in the season for the PV to ramp into major gear now especially given it has had two knock out blows, also are we not expecting further downwelling effects from the SSW? I remember 2013 SSW played around with us, there was a bounce in temps late Jan into early Feb, then trended colder through Feb and I recall a temporary milder blip early March before going into the freezer.

     

    Yes i remember that Damian as i thought that winter was over by the end of Feb but boy did the cold come back double fold in March...

    PICT0135.thumb.JPG.09cddf92e032a2f4b825e1616414878a.JPGPICT0136.thumb.JPG.2e190710150ca9691e30fe397c71d6c8.JPG

    ^^that is me at a road not far away from where i live completely cut off and there was 4x4's totally buried further up the road for three days so it's not impossible to get cold in March or come April as there is more chance then than the winter months

    anyway,...enough of winter past's,the 18z gfs has lower heights draining away to our NW than the 12z,...lets see how it goes.

    Edit:forgot to add Matt Hugo's tweet,he seems to think that heights maybe to our NE into March..

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
    typo
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The gfs/p is starting to show interest at day ten...

    gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.f2c9d5895cc8137a3998abec8f141794.png

    the gfs for the same time,...💤💩😫

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Flat again.

    image.thumb.png.b26cc69878bf1b18458d43bc72a93fbd.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    Some severe, maybe record breaking cold moving south into northern Russia by day 6, however thats as interesting as it gets in terms of cold. The UK looks set for a lengthy period  of mild, wet and windy conditions, conditions out west looks pretty horrendous, this pattern of Atlantic trough euro high leaves the uk in the south westerly train which won't budge quickly.  

     

     

    GFSOPEU00_144_1-3.png

    GFSOPEU00_144_2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Day ten charts so only for illustrative purposes from ec and ecp 

    image.thumb.png.22847ab8a090fa5d29b53c815860e403.pngimage.thumb.png.863c7d6ec857156147cf69a1aab63bb1.png        
     

    on the op the Canadian vortex retains contact with the n Atlantic trough ......likely to keep the northern arm strong and less chance of colder conditions developing downstream.

    the para is looking like it may detach the vortex from the northern arm which could leave n Atlantic systems more likely to meander east on a weaker jet. 

    note that we are seeing a split tpv on all modelling but no  indications of a sig neg AO developing which could easily happen with a push of heights from the pacific side 

    the gfsp at day 16 shows something along these lines.

    it seems a stretch to see how any reversal of the AO will deliver any notable cold to nw Europe out to mid March but the building blocks are there - they just need assembling in a certain way ..... mid lat high currently more favoured outcome for nw Europe 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

    Those extremely mild/warm runs have almost disappeared now, still mild but not to the extent shown a few days ago. In the longer term still a few colder runs, but nothing too extreme at all. All just looks very average looking to be frank!

    IMG_20210217_075647.jpg

    Edited by NewEra21
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    Posted
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)
    14 hours ago, Don said:

    At least if nothing else, the models are perhaps backing away from the very mild/warm scenarios next week?

    And you think that's good?

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    Posted
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)
    11 hours ago, phil nw. said:

    The trend to building heights over the continent and the UK again showing on the ecm run with a weaker Atlantic as the troughing recedes.So a drier period showing next week especially further south and east with temperatures looking to return towards average by day 10 as pressure builds.

    ECM mean hts anomalies days 5 and10


    EDH101-120.thumb.gif.40b681e874f6f1417a18dd7a9a438c91.gifEDH101-240.thumb.gif.70ca4ec45e39b8ac3326c98ccb245b5e.gif

    Nothing yet to suggest any quick return to notable cold.We may see some night frosts under any favourably located mid-latitude high but at the moment there's no suggestion of any Arctic located block.

    It's looking more and more likely to be after month end for anything to appear on that horizon going by the gefs.anomalies.

    gensnh-31-5-360.thumb.png.a0ad3e80c9fd7f049092d251b332ab50.png

    For coldies there's little to cling on to in the models generally this evening only Just a suggestion that a block around the uk develops with the possibility of  ridging further north in week 2.

    The Atlantic jet looks much weaker by then so whether we see anything develop from there we will have to see in future runs.

     

    Thanks for the doses of sanity / reality. There's no realistic prediction of a cold spell, though obviously in FI things can change a lot. Personally, if we're not going to have a proper cold spell, I do hope we get a proper early dose of warmth, 20deg would go down a treat.

    Not quite sure why some on here get sentimental about that as if what happens in a brief February/March spell in 2021 is a definite predictor that the world has been irreversibly overheated or something. We could end up having a cool Summer after this! More extremes don't necessarily mean more warming, though it might indicate more storminess as the norm.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    14 minutes ago, lutfishah said:

    Morning

    Any update on the MJO. Is MJO entering phase 7-8?

    Collapsing towards the centre... i believe...

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    12 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

     

    not much to add to the already being posted in here today/this evening but at least it's looking fine and settled the more SE you are judging by the latest NOAA/CPC 500mb outlook for 6-10 and 8-14 days with the wind predominantly from the SW 

    610day_03.thumb.gif.8f82114e98575041e0e8763754bd325f.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.fbe668467621836eedd740c8b75cc990.gif

     

     

     

    For what its worth, i agree, but i dont like the differences between the two charts. Could there be such a rapid pressure rise over the UK area in just a few days? And the usually most reliable 6-10 day chart only has a confidence rating of 2/5, whilst the 8-14 day chart has 4/5 ... Im not so sure they are very accurate, but in saying that, theres still absolutely no sign of anything cold.

    Id be interested to read @johnholmes thoughts on this...

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    As expected, a hiatus as the NH profile waits for some push from the sPV or tropical forcing. Clearly the MJO signal seen was Rossby Wave rather than a clean MJO effect. The latest update suggests any signal is still being interfered with by enso and weakening in the next two weeks, conclusion at NCEP:

    • Given the lack of a strong MJO signal, the most significant extratropical teleconnection will likely be driven by the low frequency La Niña state during the next two weeks.

    link here

    So, as was, we have to rely on the ebb and flow and maybe some wedges. The last few gfs runs suggest that the tPV is the driver, so looking zonal for d6-12 period at a guess until we get a pattern change? When I say zonal, not the usual winter washout, more a La Nina westerly interlude.

    gfs 06z d0-8> anim_cap7.gifgraphe6_00000_306.8113815249708_154.6820823830676___.thumb.png.a69dc9db981b3870ff1d22d497dac879.png

    Before then an Atlantic trough so SW'ly flow until d6, so relatively mild IMBY^^^. Maybe a positive CET in Feb!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Nice to see 25C T850s, on the 06Z at T+384... Things might get a tad interesting once Spring gets going?👍

    h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    15 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Nice to see 25C T850s, on the 06Z at T+384... Things might get a tad interesting once Spring gets going?👍

    h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

    384hrs pete...and where are the 25C uppers? 🤣

    I've noticed around day 8 we pull in a more Nwtly for a while so temps take a dip...possibly -4 to -6 uppers for a while.....rrrrrr that's better 😉

    gens-2-1-228.png

    gens-3-1-192.png

    gens-3-0-228.png

    gens-13-1-216.png

    gens-20-1-216.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: I like Spring. Because some Springs you can sunbathe. Some you can sledge.
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
    5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    384hrs pete...and where are the 25C uppers? 🤣

    I've noticed around day 8 we pull in a more Nwtly for a while so temps take a dip...possibly -4 to -6 uppers for a while.....rrrrrr that's better 😉

    gens-2-1-228.png

    gens-3-1-192.png

    gens-3-0-228.png

    gens-13-1-216.png

    gens-20-1-216.png

    Yep good spot, I picked up on this a bit earlier and it presents itself quite clearly in the 6z GEFS

    image.thumb.png.37fee7036c52a0aa23213c873efef8f4.png

    D7-10 looks a bit cooler now than it did yesterday with the uppers trying to threaten -5 for some locations will be interesting to see if that develops any further.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Wow this ensemble chasing is very tiring...but I would imagine its something like this one to shake the boat up and bring us another shot at Winter come March!!

    gens-8-1-300.png

    gens-8-0-324.png

    tenor-10.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

    For what its worth, i agree, but i dont like the differences between the two charts. Could there be such a rapid pressure rise over the UK area in just a few days? And the usually most reliable 6-10 day chart only has a confidence rating of 2/5, whilst the 8-14 day chart has 4/5 ... Im not so sure they are very accurate, but in saying that, theres still absolutely no sign of anything cold.

    Id be interested to read @johnholmes thoughts on this...

    I'll have a look after a bite of lunch mushy and come back on it

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

    Still just the hint of something colder for the beginning of March. Nothing too interesting as of yet, but it's better to see a few runs heading colder than not

    IMG_20210217_122852.jpg

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
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