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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    23 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    There’s very strong agreement of much milder weather but increasingly near end of month greater E/NE options are emerging give how cold the North Sea is any easterly will be cold. March possibly not favoured to start springlike.

    C4018257-76EC-4564-AAA8-C9A267B99CB6.thumb.png.25dd1f0b1c5aad5368490cdd786e0369.png

    The median still above 9c right to the end, hardly bone chilling stuff for March.

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    Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

    The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

    Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, (Very) East London
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, sun and snow.
  • Location: Upminster, (Very) East London
    6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Has the forum become BBC Springwatch overnight 🤣 All this talk of warm is making me feel Cold.. That risk of a change to much colder towards months end remains a real risk! Do not put away your electric blankets or calor gas cannisters just yet. 🙃

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    Gotta love P13. When all else fails, keep the faith!

    P13.thumb.JPG.5af4a017551d3955096ec8f7c15df6c2.JPG

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    24 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Typical once mild takes control like now  it will most probably  last weeks unlike cold where just about a week is the best you can expect. 

    Another February conditions where it looks like almost certainly  it will have a ridiculous mild spell of weather in their, let's hope the models pick up on something much colder for end of month into March at least.. 

    Thing is SLEETY as you point out about being locked in for weeks of mild all the time,it has not really played out like that all Winter! This is the first time in weeks some Northern areas have warmed up! For many cold snaps have been followed by milder spells since the end of December..Thats why I'm still a tad apprehensive that this mild spell will be again a 7 day event before we once again look to something much colder...it may not look great at the moment,but more and more of those ens are hinting at it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: I like Spring. Because some Springs you can sunbathe. Some you can sledge.
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l

    I'm seeing signs that around D10 and slightly beyond we could be looking at something in the way of more organised areas of high pressure sitting over or around the UK

    image.thumb.png.96db208cd9e56bbf0d9f86876461675f.pngGFS+240

    image.thumb.png.94070d7124347672bb9d52cece5ff53e.pngGFS+252

    image.thumb.png.759491f3622d6acb83a68b9b2bb2e8dc.pngECM+240

    Attention will be on where this high pressure ends up in the more longer term. 

    Is this below suggesting a slight inkling towards locating the HP to the N/NW as time goes on.

    image.thumb.png.604d9e6720ba830ec8f72a77f46f303b.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Op on the mild side of the ensembles at the end..

    365EAC96-F312-439F-8EEF-EF3D706BD2AA.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    This week looks much milder than recently (wouldn’t be difficult would it?).🙃.....but from the weekend onwards through next week could be even milder?..dare I say..WARM!😜...it’s something to keep an 👁 on for sure, the trend from the 0z has continued to the 6z..will it continue on the 12z?...I believe it will..and then the 18z etc..etc!😁

    6AFB41A0-EE9D-4F70-B9DC-F3897A239C5F.thumb.png.b08bf8b3666b4455df1b05dfbf85a032.png698180A5-2E3E-47F0-AA54-289189B10A58.thumb.png.e996532b79f6f498b1ba5ad855b38134.png57C2226E-3DE1-4F84-8B53-55C44135B052.thumb.png.ee5008006aa7e55535e4c41fda56fc08.pngD6B23BC3-64E5-4AF5-A476-2755BF53B00B.thumb.png.37ce9f65631e673d57d36e31391d6621.png44896F25-B0ED-4BD9-9999-019F8892E983.thumb.png.d5b97968666a1617e18385e3bb343012.png671E2EB3-FBBC-4F1B-BD8B-43D1CF48BC2B.thumb.png.01333ec55a5ab42a67a8dcd0a337d761.png9979C88F-2AC4-4D31-B1C8-715CA21AEBE3.thumb.png.4910b66853d2146f18ebff378c5753ed.png

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
    3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Op on the mild side of the ensembles at the end..

    365EAC96-F312-439F-8EEF-EF3D706BD2AA.png

    Yep. The start of March still looks like a cool down to at least more average at least. A few much colder runs in there though, let's hope to see that number grow over the runs and days ahead!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    This week looks much milder than recently (wouldn’t be difficult would it?).🙃.....but from the weekend onwards through next week could be even milder?..dare I say..WARM!😜...it’s something to keep an 👁 on for sure, the trend from the 0z has continued to the 6z..will it continue on the 12z?...I believe it will..and then the 18z etc..etc!😁

    6AFB41A0-EE9D-4F70-B9DC-F3897A239C5F.thumb.png.b08bf8b3666b4455df1b05dfbf85a032.png698180A5-2E3E-47F0-AA54-289189B10A58.thumb.png.e996532b79f6f498b1ba5ad855b38134.png57C2226E-3DE1-4F84-8B53-55C44135B052.thumb.png.ee5008006aa7e55535e4c41fda56fc08.pngD6B23BC3-64E5-4AF5-A476-2755BF53B00B.thumb.png.37ce9f65631e673d57d36e31391d6621.png44896F25-B0ED-4BD9-9999-019F8892E983.thumb.png.d5b97968666a1617e18385e3bb343012.png671E2EB3-FBBC-4F1B-BD8B-43D1CF48BC2B.thumb.png.01333ec55a5ab42a67a8dcd0a337d761.png9979C88F-2AC4-4D31-B1C8-715CA21AEBE3.thumb.png.4910b66853d2146f18ebff378c5753ed.png

     

     

    Aye Karl, it'd be warm alright.. Projected uppers of around 12C would be 3 or 4c higher than during the 2019 heat-spike. I think!

    698180A5-2E3E-47F0-AA54-289189B10A58.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    7 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Aye Karl, it'd be warm alright.. Projected uppers of around 12C would be 3 or 4c higher than during the 2019 heat-spike. I think!

    698180A5-2E3E-47F0-AA54-289189B10A58.png

    Yeah Ed, I mean Pete..there’s solid support from the latest models for a very mild spell on the way, well, it already is mild but you know what I mean..😜

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: I like Spring. Because some Springs you can sunbathe. Some you can sledge.
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
    12 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    I'm not the biggest fan of deep fi charts for obvious reasons,but I've noticed with the 6Z ens again we have numerous cold scenarios cropping up.. this one really caught the eye..this could become quite the Warm vs Cold Battle Royal.

    Edit @Jon Snow i can't help but notice how you've gone from the forums biggest cold Ramper to the forums biggest warm Ramper overnight! 🤔

    gens-3-0-360 (1).png

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    gens-7-0-372.png

     

    There's certainly a few reasons to have a little bit of interest in the more longer term beyond D10 (purely based on the GEFS ensembles and rightfully so at that range) - see postage stamps below

    image.thumb.png.cde6c71ec5992eb70cf8644c81433f2e.png

    1st March is a long long way away but there is a bit of early agreement there that high pressure is trying to do 'something' around that timeframe - and by nature a handful of ensembles (such as the one you posted) happen to have that area of HP to our west/northwest opening the door for cold again. 

    But before all that .. 

    image.thumb.png.878107a3d66e501c4be98d278713572f.png

    I'm wondering if I'll be getting a sweaty forehead for the first time in a while at some point next week!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    21 minutes ago, Tattooed Fox said:

    Your the only one who has said this, I read this morning that’s there is going to be ‘countrywide snow’ for the 27th February. That includes all of Cornwall.

      

    That must be from someone who has seen crabs walking sideways on the beach!

    Anyone could pick out one run among fifty and declare that's the way things can be. And,until the time of their prediction has come and gone, it can't necessarily be discounted.  But it can be regarded as unlikely, especially if the cavalry in the form of later runs supporting it does not arrive!  

    Then again we have seen how it can flip from cold to mild in a relatively short space of time as shown by the charts below..  No reason why it can't do the same the other way I suppose. I do recall some model output from last week that was "guaranteeing" us ice days up until Wednesday of this week.....

     

    274769711_ColdSweptAway.thumb.jpg.11c6faafc049c3cac9c2c47a24a8af2c.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
    1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

    Typical once mild takes control like now  it will most probably  last weeks unlike cold where just about a week is the best you can expect. 

    Another February where it looks like almost certainly  it will have a ridiculous mild spell of weather in their, let's hope the models pick up on something much colder for end of month into March at least.. 

    It just appears that when we have a notable cold spell in the first half of February it turns very mild in the second half.  This is exactly the trap that Februarys 2009 and 2012 fell into.  Both those months saw very cold first halves and very mild second halves.  Now it looks as though February 2021 could well be falling into this same trap, a significant cold spell in the second week, then like 2009 and 2012 going very mild for the second half.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
    2 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

    It is now starting to look as though February 2021 could well be joining the list as the the third pear shaped February in 13 years; a sharp cold spell in the second week then a very mild second half.  Prior to Feb 2009 I cannot think of many winter months that saw notable cold spells in the first half followed by very mild second halves; I cannot think of the previous example before Feb 2009.

     

    Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    2 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

    It just appears that when we have a notable cold spell in the first half of February it turns very mild in the second half.  This is exactly the trap that Februarys 2009 and 2012 fell into.  Both those months saw very cold first halves and very mild second halves.  Now it looks as though February 2021 could well be falling into this same trap, a significant cold spell in the second week, then like 2009 and 2012 going very mild for the second half.

    All indicative of the fact the atmosphere is in a rather abnormal state, extremes of cold and mild tend to only happen when this is the case especially in winter. What goes up must come down.. don't be surprised if the upcoming very mild spell is followed swiftly be something much colder again.. think of the spring switcharound that happen in the space of 3 days, arctic northerlies become warm southerners and vice versa, all about the dynamics between warm air advection and cold air advection.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
    3 hours ago, MJB said:

    The warmth won't last too long looking at the GFS6z 

    The 6z doesn’t look cold or even close to being cold right into FI. What am I missing?

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I’d be dubious of any colder possibilities until the GEFS start bringing more colder members counting down and not marooned at day ten and beyond.

    The ops seem to be in a repeat pattern of dropping a tease at day ten but this once again seems to not make much headway.

     

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Just looking at the GEFS 6z mean / moyenne😉...there’s good support for heights from the south to gradually become more influential with high pressure becoming centred to the SE across the near continent with the result being some unusually warm air pumping north across the u k...so, although this week looks rather mild and changeable / unsettled, some days will be a bit cooler (closer to average) but then from the weekend into next week we may see temperatures rising well above average, at least across southern u k and becoming more settled further south / southeast, closest to the high...you could describe it as a NW / SE split.

    1754F51D-40E1-4ACA-A43E-06917CB014D9.thumb.png.bc7474a45ae284497d1915fae4dd4dad.png58CCE4A1-8A70-4F4E-8034-FE37E0738208.thumb.png.806f784075dc2f0a8d31d5f80f8239fc.png3E31318A-6016-47ED-9BE0-A76926087A1E.thumb.png.decf42e9fe6006bc06f4eef035ce108f.png0328B6C9-2C05-4DFC-A42D-7DEA1AB09B52.thumb.png.d8f211001ac95e6c2b86f8cb626a5a35.pngA8903992-5112-448A-8C9A-EE3A3C58A7D8.thumb.png.890f491748b51f77f7d5d7535ede9ba5.png3D4BC8FD-DBC6-45A6-867C-04928D1A4422.thumb.png.ad2fd91f4ecac010cc4b2d9d7f02f73a.png067AA795-2661-4972-95BE-435A8CF64437.thumb.png.ff98a57d24bfbdd20cdc9fe30aba32c4.png6CA0EB17-C640-4B97-86CE-656C0E4ED5CC.thumb.png.344a83daad8340994ac152e0b1f72d9d.png

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    33 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Yes Matt, I have been thinking along similar lines... Could it be the timing of the SSWs, somehow working in concert with all those very warm T850s that have occurred (down around North Africa and The Med) these past few winters?🤔

    Yes Pete much warmer conditions have been present around the tropics all Winter...An SSW can shake up the pattern for better or worse..if we ever tapped into a STLY feed it was obviously gonna become very mild.Severe cold to the Southern States.. and perhaps emerging towards Greece! Most definitely the affects of that Vortex being displaced for most of the Winter...yes it gaining strength now but the surface impacts will rumble on for some time. 

    @Don you say its a concern regarding 20c being breached in February,when you have warm air situated to the South like we have had all Winter,its going to be a good possibility that we become very warm if we tap into a Stly or SWtly flow. The big question being is it warmer than normal in those tropical regions...the answer for me being probably yes!

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    1 hour ago, Stravaiger said:

    I’m with Don...completely understand the variability we can be prone to at this time of year, but the parameters have shifted in favour of warmth.

    You would never expect to get temperatures above 22C in the UK in February, it wouldn’t really have been considered climatically possible 50 years ago.

    It relies on exceptional, anomalous warmth being there to our south for unusual post-SSW Synoptics to draw north.

    It's been impossible to get a February CET  higher than 7.3C for 152 years since 1869 managed 7.5C !!  That was one of six February's on the bounce for which the average was over 6C.  To put that into perspective, a February with a CET of 6C would now rank it among the warmest 15% of Februarys ever!

    I do go along with the notions that SSW's can catch us either in a wave of cold air coming down from the pole or a waft of warm air rising up to it.  I doubt we will get a February with a CET of 6C this year, but I daresay the way the models are looking currently, we could get near to it rising above 5C.

    Not sure anyone could have realistically foreseen that last week.  so equally by this time next week we might be seeing model runs that would look to send it below 3C again!!! 

     

    Edited by Timmytour
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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    42 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

    It's been impossible to get a February CET  higher than 7.3C for 152 years since 1869 managed 7.5C !!  That was one of six February's on the bounce for which the average was over 6C.  To put that into perspective, a February with a CET of 6C would now rank it among the warmest 15% of Februarys ever!

    I do go along with the notions that SSW's can catch us either in a wave of cold air coming down from the pole or a waft of warm air rising up to it.  I doubt we will get a February with a CET of 6C this year, but I daresay the way the models are looking currently, we could get near to it rising above 5C.

    Not sure anyone could have realistically foreseen that last week.  so equally by this time next week we might be seeing model runs that would look to send it below 3C again!!! 

     

     Timmytour you make a very good point. Even if an ssw does create a cracking set up of Northern Blocking you still have to be on the right side of it to get the most out of it. For our tiny Island ( on a global scale) the position and orientation of any northern blocking is crucial and small tweaks can make very big differences locally within the UK snowfall wise.  Early last week the orientation was great for eastern Scotland then storm Darcy tweaked the edges enough to bring North east England and  East anglia and the southeast into play for a while then another tweak to a southeasterly flow pretty much dried up the snow chances for many others.

    Position this time also meant the cold air was sourced from Scandinavia as opposed to Siberia and so was relatively less cold than the beast in 2018 which was Siberian sourced this leads to less penetration across the the UK of the heavy snow showers add in that there was never (away from the southeast that is)  a vigorous enough low pressure or frontal zone approaching from the south or southwest to introduce moisture in to those areas away from those that always do well in easterly feed  and you can see why for many across the UK its was more of a case of the Beast with the least rather than the Beast from the East in terms of snowfall, but that's just the lottery of an Easterly airstream in the UK.  In truth unless its exceptional in terms of uppers and has disturbances embedded in a long fetch flow  then its simply the usual suspects that get a pasting while the rest of us look on  

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    We have gone milder but there's still plenty of cold around the hemisphere ukmo t24hrs

    UN24-7.thumb.gif.6ad20e4392a8f6ca961fdfdadcacc76b.gif

    The continental landmasses bagging it all,both east and west.Remarkable  how far south it has traveled in N.America,down to the gulf coast.

    Edited by phil nw.
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    12 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

    We have gone milder but there's still plenty of cold around the hemisphere ukmo t24hrs

    UN24-7.thumb.gif.6ad20e4392a8f6ca961fdfdadcacc76b.gif

    The continental landmasses bagging it all,both east and west.Remarkable  how far south it has traveled in N.America,down to the gulf coast.

    Yep I noticed that in GFS 12z in deep FI.... phenomenal cold air in NH for early March.

    BA5D56A0-38C7-4EC1-884F-7A7DE27781F5.thumb.png.84b06dd9fc6d69118e21bc5d56774bb3.png80A08E83-AEEA-44D4-9B0C-646A4B3F856C.thumb.png.b0e1a2982b1f238d9b671cafcc5e997b.png

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    GFS/UKMO at t144

    gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.03d21444484ee5fb9c6a6b29781d49b4.pngUN144-21.thumb.gif.894a0327cf28f52349c53132539cf2cd.gif

    Just starting to see the signs f the Euro high developing with the uk still in a south westerly pattern.The trend to some quite warm air coming north early next week remains as this feature establishes by 192hrs

    gfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.133823197c27d230443985dcbd3576ec.png

    Spring warmth in late Winter is on the agenda next week still.Again later frames show further ridging north having a go but too far away to have any confidence on this.In the short/medium term that Greenland vortex remains the main driver.

     

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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