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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The ECM 0z ensemble mean offers cold comfort (pardon the pun)😜..for coldies...it looks 👀 like we ( coldies )..are staring down the barrel at a much milder outlook...shame....bad day for moi, didn’t even get any valentine cards!!..although it is Sunday..so that’s probably the main reason!!!...go figure....lol..😜🙃

    86097B3E-586D-4C3D-9FD5-4785E06D5947.thumb.gif.ce2ed1f13b5b4ff76e0ca5f918cc2cdf.gif597241CD-FA05-4C54-AC94-F01797316B87.thumb.gif.ba104d4ff3d2d94e4242e4a6eb7e9650.gif2CF8BBF7-6F13-4B23-A168-641EECF7F1BC.thumb.gif.debb632dc89c05f0da22bb57883dbb55.gif

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Still not enough support to take the high further north and open the door to a possibility of a very late winter colder shot from the ne or east .

    The ECM is an absolute shocker which delivers the worst of all worlds , mild and wet later with any high flattened by a resurgent Atlantic .

    The models do though agree on some changes to the PV with the elongated feature running ne sw splitting and losing some of its intensity .

    I do find it funny when a cold spell ends at this time of the year some would like to see a sudden change to warmer conditions when the reality is spring can often produce more falling snow than December .

    Personally I’m not a great fan of spring cold where you’re normally unable to get sufficient deep cold and especially when you get very good winter synoptics and are left with the if only it was earlier .

    If there is to be more cold I’d hope at least it comes earlier where there’s a better chance of delivering more widely and it can max out what’s possible at this time of the year .

    In terms of how early spring will pan out I think the trend in terms of that could be set by what happens around day ten .

    Normally the zonal flow weakens so if you end up with blocking to the north or east it’s more likely to last than say in the height of winter .

     

    We haven't got one of these from 3 years ago to the day. We do have, hopefully, another downwelling episode? 

    FB_IMG_1613304978421.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    The ECM 0z ensemble mean offers cold comfort ( pardon the pun)😜..for coldies...it looks 👀 like we ( coldies )..are staring down the barrel at a much milder outlook...shame..lol😁

    86097B3E-586D-4C3D-9FD5-4785E06D5947.thumb.gif.ce2ed1f13b5b4ff76e0ca5f918cc2cdf.gif597241CD-FA05-4C54-AC94-F01797316B87.thumb.gif.ba104d4ff3d2d94e4242e4a6eb7e9650.gif2CF8BBF7-6F13-4B23-A168-641EECF7F1BC.thumb.gif.debb632dc89c05f0da22bb57883dbb55.gif

    It doesn’t look pretty we’re going to need to see quite the turnaround.

    1FD7B81E-DFE5-490D-BAA9-0486A74B4455.thumb.png.02c05bd42fab4616041eaf4a896fe363.png

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    image.thumb.png.5b6361dfe16963fbc6e6b1e1fbb7e848.png

    Gfs shows potential clash of air masses late in month. Crazy difference in temp over 500 miles or so.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

     With the ukmo and ecm only going out to 7 and 10 days respectively on theirpublicly available operationals and the next possible cold shot not due until the very end of Feb or beginning of March. we are for now left looking at the gefs or extended eps for any signals in that direction............................... or even dare I say it the cfs. which has been consistently hinting at a cold end to feb and early March for a long time..........................rather like it did in 2018.

    ( picks up straws, clutches them tightly and goes home) 😂

    Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    18 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    We haven't got one of these from 3 years ago to the day. We do have, hopefully, another downwelling episode? 

    FB_IMG_1613304978421.jpg

    IF it does affect in just the right place it would suggest end of Feb/early March for that to happen? I said IF!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    4 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    Looks like spring arriving earlier than scheduled with a majority of warm runs on the Gefs 6z😳

    785C6FD4-09AF-4EEE-AC62-C2352946F15D.png

    Little cheer for coldies on that chart!  Any colder runs remain at the end.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    13 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Number of -10 runs in FI are on the increase on the ensembles. Will be interesting to see if we can improve on this in the coming days..

    50E2387F-26E3-4D27-82FA-21432DFBAC85.png

    I love an optimist..heck I used too bee 🐝 1😜...but being serious for a moment, the models are showing a return too mild, and it’s happening as I type this...and looking 👀 at the GEFS / ECM...it’s a looong way back too cold...hope I’m rong!:reindeer-emoji:😁

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    It doesn't take much in the UK Daniel for major flips to occur...for me the influence of the January 5th warming and the lesser warming that occurred on the 1st of February could be influencing our conditions for quite some time. Im confident we may see some imprint from that early Feb event come the latter stage of the month..keep in mind it was around 4 weeks before the real cold came after the first event!

    I agree, it seems we have one more chance coming up of something meaningful, AAM is still high so that hasn’t percolated yet and with possibly a second wave of reduced zonality entering trop we could see high latitude blocking emerge, but this looks unlikely in next 7-10 days. Winter isn’t done with us yet it, often more follows the astronomical calendar with to March 20th. Personally I’d be very happy if we managed one big snow event even if it melted the next day, it would be great to see, I think for many what this winter has missed is a substantial fall Midlands north and well parts of SE might be satisfied but I’m not truly. It’s definitely been much improved to last winter but no real defining aspect to it, which I think for some it might not be very memorable.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Great post Legritter..you’re a netweather legend..sausage baps / stellas and all!..anyway, looking into the outer limits of the GEFS 6z mean..there’s nothing that screams wintery..indeed, quite the opposite, it looks preety benign and springlike?..but looking through the 6z members there are some wintery options..but too be honest, I’m not holding out much hope for a return to wintery this month..but that doesn’t preclude March springing a few surprises?!😜

    817870DC-2E0C-4ABC-98F9-328B17ACD437.thumb.png.290981b055aee4db6686260a5c38bc07.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

    I hope you're right, Karl... I've had enough cold for one winter!👍

    How about a cold spring?😆

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
    1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

    I agree, it seems we have one more chance coming up of something meaningful, AAM is still high so that hasn’t percolated yet and with possibly a second wave of reduced zonality entering trop we could see high latitude blocking emerge, but this looks unlikely in next 7-10 days. Winter isn’t done with us yet it, often more follows the astronomical calendar with to March 20th. Personally I’d be very happy if we managed one big snow event even if it melted the next day, it would be great to see, I think for many what this winter has missed is a substantial fall Midlands north and well parts of SE might be satisfied but I’m not truly. It’s definitely been much improved to last winter but no real defining aspect to it, which I think for some it might not be very memorable.

    And don’t forget the whole of the south west....

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    1 hour ago, legritter said:

    Yes let the midlands have a huge dump of Snow, then the  south ,dont mind it mild in-between, its the snow falling and the magic , indeed a good share out for all ,personally i thonk and think another hunt will come very soon, cheers .

    The Midlands have done pretty well this Winter with snow events..at least half a dozen,so know complaints from me on that score. The interest for me perhaps starts to gather towards next weekend where we probably see a return to frosts. Its then that models may still be struggling with any downwelling,if this comes off we may well see a return to Heights to the North...that first SSW was a slow burner don't forget! The influence being felt from around that 4 week point for many areas.Yes its mild for the next week but don't get lulled into a false sense of security just yet,you can even tell by the met update the uncertainty we are facing with there change to the 14 day write up! I'm thinking due to the uncertainty of a possible downwelling coming along!! Will it...won't it!! I wouldn't at all be suprised to see a March 2013 re run here...with similar SSW events occurring around the same time frame! Perhaps we will start to see the models play with these ideas in the next 5 days!

    @General Cluster get out of it you've only had a few days of a cold wind🤓

    @Daniel* I agree there,plenty of time for things to favour cold into the 3rd week of March.

    Edited by MATTWOLVES
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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    The latest fax for Weds. sums up the coming week's pattern pretty much i reckon.

    1487683708_fax84s(1).thumb.gif.755ed08cb7942784f065680cfd8110e5.gif

    A complete turnaround from the cold easterly blocking setup.Plenty of Atlantic fronts coming through in the coming days,wind and rain at times and of course milder.

    It's certainly looking more unsettled than yesterday's output until next weekend.Signs then of a pressure rise from the south but i think it's too early to determine where any high settles but somewhere around our locale looks favourite on current ens trends.

    Edited by phil nw.
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    GFS very dissimilar to ECM into weekend Atlantic based.

    2C1F322C-348F-40A6-B765-D8B15FA2F6D3.thumb.png.916d931fdf10c6973729b8252406712f.png136785CB-8F08-4A9C-B655-F70E6D46C8D8.thumb.gif.9ffbf68d1ebc543f5fb3309a71f3e069.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Differences developing upstream between the GFS and the UKMO by day 6.

    The former has a more inland runner developing shortwave which deepens rapidly , the latter has a more coastal low less developed .

    Differences also with the PV lobe , downstream the UKMO is more progressive and is trying to run a shortwave east into Scandinavia.

     

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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