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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    Universally poor output including the extended eps.  Exeter still going for a cool down from next weekend but this is not showing in the NWP.  Time is running out for a flip but it is still just possible.  To coin a phrase “more runs needed”.

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    Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

    The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

    Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    4 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

    Yeah but does winter ever start in Somerset? 😁

    Not by northern standards lol. 

    Cold hasn’t been a problem this winter, neither has precipitation, just sufficient  former at the same time as the latter. I’d have happy settled for the slightly less cold temperatures in the E and SE if it meant some snowfall from this spell. 

    Anyway, perhaps a light at the end of the tunnel on the models for next weekend onwards. Just hopefully not another time wasting easterly. Failing that, the prevalence of a UK high is the next best thing imo and would return some decent conditions by day and seasonal nights.

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    33 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    Universally poor output including the extended eps.  Exeter still going for a cool down from next weekend but this is not showing in the NWP.  Time is running out for a flip but it is still just possible.  To coin a phrase “more runs needed”.

    Tbh we view what we can on all models and generally have a idea which way the MO further forecasts are going. That's the way I read it. Glosea,mogreps, EC 46( which we can view) I understand they use?!?!?!?.

    Must've been a big flip over the last few days.....

    To what we've latched on on here with the ops and extended showing the way of travel. For me, the pro's know much more than us on here but we have a decent idea what's going to happen before they let on.

    Edited by joggs
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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
    6 minutes ago, joggs said:

    Tbh we view what we can on all models and generally have a idea which way the MO further forecasts are going. That's the way I read it. Glosea,mogreps, EC 46( which we can view) I understand they use?!?!?!?.

    Must've been a big flip over the last few days.....

    To what we've latched on on here with the ops and extended showing the way of travel. For me, the pro's know much more than us on here but we have a decent idea what's going to happen before they let on.

    Yes for whatever reason their longer range forecasts always seem to be a couple days behind the curve. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
    55 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

    Yeah but does winter ever start in Somerset? 😁

    Summers are crap as well, great if you like rain though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Well, sadly although the model outlooks are ebbing and flowing, it does look like we are moving ever further away from another potential cold spell!  This February is now reminding me of 2009 and 2012 which showed potential as being notably cold months but went pear shaped mid month onwards and plunged us into an early spring!  Is there a link here or pure coincidence?  Although there is just about time for things to turn around, if I were a betting man, I know where my money would be for the rest of the month!  We had our big chance this week but unfortunately for some, little snow materialised.

    Expecting a change in the Metoffice outlook tomorrow if no change with the overnight runs.

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
    1 hour ago, Cold Winter Night said:

    About the cold vs mild battle:

    Last week we expected that the models would underestimate the resilience of the cold block.
    One week ago, the model output for Holland consistently showed 4-5 days in a row with daily maxima between -5c and -8c and minima below -15c. That is very cold air, and very difficult to move.

    However, apparently the models across the board overestimated the depth of cold, because although we are seeing ice days in Holland, they are more -1c to 0c during the day, and between -5c and -10c during the night.
    Less cold, therefore a less resilient cold block, more vulnerable to the Atlantic attack.

    In other words: the models were wrong about the depth of cold (and the amount of snow), but right about the breakdown.

    The current FI developments of new blocking and cold approaching are not very convincing yet, after seeing the 12z output.
    There is a lot of scatter though. No solution is certain yet.

     

    Are there thoughts as to why the models overestimated depth of cold?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    19 minutes ago, JimBob said:

    Yes for whatever reason their longer range forecasts always seem to be a couple days behind the curve. 

    That seemed to be the case a few years ago but I feel they have been more inline with output changes this winter?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    13 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

    Summers are crap as well, great if you like rain though.

    They are? 🤔 Not in this part of the world... It’s the summers that compensate for the generally disappointing winters.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

    No joy from the ECM sisters up till 192 either,

    today has been very poor for a quick return to a cold pattern. I think we have been spoilt this winter (at least in terms of the rollercoaster of model watching).

    Let's hope the pub run can pull something out the bag.

     

    Not sure I can be bothered with it to be honest........

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    A bitterly cold day here in lowland East London and the sixth successive day of very cold temperatures but it looks like tomorrow will be the final very cold day and after a transition on Sunday it will be a significant change to much milder conditions on Monday with temperatures moving above average to 10-12c for much of the south east next week.

    I changed the format last night and I'll try it again tonight so GEM, GFS OP, GFS Parallel and ECM at T+120, T+180 and T+240 respectively.

    T+120 (Wednesday 17th):

    image.thumb.png.8dbe0d3f0963a3a0301f77e5f8716dbd.pngimage.thumb.png.28dd7d017b62d80e0fc8986bf562be47.pngimage.thumb.png.2116c07bd9bf6f70f2893e1d596a6dd2.pngimage.thumb.png.2f4d54f4416e88e037b58a38da450c8b.png

    T+180 (T+192 on the ECM😞

    image.thumb.png.561ec351d77c1aa343345b4d83251826.pngimage.thumb.png.eb5368e1197455d0f09bdb095a6011ff.pngimage.thumb.png.0177783efe1d6061686780bf35906482.pngimage.thumb.png.4cbd4419585ff417de2166bff656cf8b.png

    T+240 (Monday 22nd):

    image.thumb.png.bf64f6a5ffa50bdacdb34807687b52ff.pngimage.thumb.png.5c2e360c0cd4c9dc2e705bbd027376cf.pngimage.thumb.png.4103865a1ac4fdb1884cb891d7b6af69.pngimage.thumb.png.36cad8d42591ecc23db6857325234bf2.png

    There's very little for cold fans on tonight's models in the short to medium term. The heights end up sinking into Europe but GEM brings the HP back up over the British isles and the general themes are mild for all, settled for most and benign for the majority with temperatures above average , little rain or wind and no frost or snow. Oddly enough, the UKMO seems the most unsettled at T+144.

    Let's take in some longer range charts covering T+312 (Thursday 25th) and T+384 (Sunday 28th) from GFS OP, Parallel and Control:

    image.thumb.png.52fe7ba1697e418a8687e3579aa29960.pngimage.thumb.png.5852cf5dd513566754708a9eaa94563d.pngimage.thumb.png.1a61484f92fac4f4d04d803f57daca24.png

    image.thumb.png.286b5a397282d1ee0e4f19443c69de2b.pngimage.thumb.png.f1e035a99c1fc234d8fd38d8dc883ea8.pngimage.thumb.png.bea661044daf86bd4e5356d37879b31a.png

    They say if you wait long enough, you'll get what you deserve. The message to the end of the month is strongly anticyclonic and just a hint we might get the HP in the right place oriented the right way for a late winter surprise. Control has -8 uppers to end the month which would be decent.

    That's a very long way off and in the short to medium term there's not going to be much weather to talk about unless you like it mild and quiet.

     

     

    Edited by stodge
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 hour ago, mulzy said:

    Universally poor output including the extended eps.  Exeter still going for a cool down from next weekend but this is not showing in the NWP.  Time is running out for a flip but it is still just possible.  To coin a phrase “more runs needed”.

    Universally poor? Best chart of winter this! First gridpoint showing 20c this year!! 3625C86B-9C09-47ED-A691-EC1DFFC46D0A.thumb.jpeg.c4e654769995c92501f2ea003c42a92e.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
    5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Universally poor? Best chart of winter this! First gridpoint showing 20c this year!! 3625C86B-9C09-47ED-A691-EC1DFFC46D0A.thumb.jpeg.c4e654769995c92501f2ea003c42a92e.jpeg

    Can't see 20c but 19c over my area in nw wales.. Happy days

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    I think that the current output leaves one final chance at a proper cold spell.  With the immediate consensus being a UK high, and no Atlantic assault, that high does have the chance to migrate north.  I’m reminded of 2018, once the cold came, it came in waves, 2 certainly, but it was still cold until mid-April.  I reckon there’s one more push left in this and it would be the last week of February.  Hope you’ll join me for the chase!!  There’s nowt else to do....

    I think to be honest more like March - btw @yamkin The last few CFS runs for March would put most recent February's to shame, Yes i know i criticised its D6 output earlier and of course the reason might be either its a day behind and hasn't caught up yet or it could be that these March projections are legitimate and the model is doing its job of monthly / seasonal mean forecasting which is what its supposed to do, not deterministic short range specifics, soon see on the next few runs whether it was just thrown out by something or whether there is a genuine cold signal for March.

    image.thumb.png.ef192f83cd35d7116c9288edba79f542.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

    Becoming less cold in the east and northeast on Sunday and mild in the far west and southwest of England aswell as northern Ireland. But a period of snow for northern Ireland tomorrow morning a significant covering particularly high ground. sleet and snow mostly light then patchy likely for parts of Wales and Southwest England away from the far southwest where it will be rain, any accumulating snow mostly on higher ground with a few areas possibly seeing a few cm's but this area of rain and snow weakening quickly.

    Temperatures for Sunday..

    12_51_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.af13866e02ba2953a2b930ed4e5562e3.png

    Rainfall..

    1267171805_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_24(1).thumb.jpg.332a9818c211c7c9537bef0539d0a67a.jpg

    EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_30.thumb.jpg.fb82da9f1c49c180c17fee6c5193ee64.jpg

    Arpege..

    12_25_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.c7b6af93c1da68da604f1680618621bc.png

    Very windy for western England, Wales and particularly northern Ireland on Sunday likely stormy for the Western isles.

    EUROPE_PRMSL_48.thumb.jpg.2e05865d012a7c9de22aa47ec904d259.jpg

    EUROPE_PRMSL_54.thumb.jpg.dfd83d63e5fb6bfcba9d4139124fa888.jpg

    12_51_windvector_gust.thumb.png.4c55087ac3ff1909f895dd5113140d7b.png

    273340262_12_54_windvector_gust(1).thumb.png.9fcb3ccbf3b172867bfab3f728db1865.png

    More unsettled during next week and milder, higher pressure along with that very cold air taking some time to ease away from Scandinavia the Gfs shows this slowly moving southwards but higher pressure remains here.

    4xtkez.thumb.gif.677fba5e8050daf3259c6cb83951f9d4.gif

    4xtlfv.thumb.gif.fd98d3902bc95f93308826a72d7f48e6.gif

    Then high pressure moving northwards through the uk a fairly consistent theme for Saturday 20th with an initial push of very mild upper air temperatures before a much colder airmass moves south to the east of us.. a few outputs have shown something similar so a low chance of high pressure building over scandinavia the following week beginning 22nd February with colder air returning.

    1562784894_EUROPE_PRMSL_264(1).thumb.jpg.8b7aabe8af7f19586cd887db3387d1f9.jpg

    Upper air temperatures..

    4xtlqo.thumb.gif.17c91fcbc32e5d9642958e4dd743d718.gif

    Edited by jordan smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    I think that the current output leaves one final chance at a proper cold spell.  With the immediate consensus being a UK high, and no Atlantic assault, that high does have the chance to migrate north.  I’m reminded of 2018, once the cold came, it came in waves, 2 certainly, but it was still cold until mid-April.  I reckon there’s one more push left in this and it would be the last week of February.  Hope you’ll join me for the chase!!  There’s nowt else to do....

    Following the first BFTE 2018 which broke down on Saturday March 3rd, the following weekend was very mild with temps in the mid teens.  The 'mini' BFTE then arrived the weekend of the 17th.  What was strange was the Friday 16th was very mild at around 13C and yet by Saturday morning temps were around 0C with snow showers!  A third BFTE was then predicted to arrive around Easter but didn't quite materialise.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    2 minutes ago, Don said:

    Following the first BFTE 2018 which broke down on Saturday March 3rd, the following weekend was very mild with temps in the mid teens.  The 'mini' BFTE then arrived the weekend of the 17th.  What was strange was the Friday 16th was very mild at around 13C and yet by Saturday morning temps were around 0C with snow showers!  A third BFTE was then predicted to arrive around Easter but didn't quite materialise.

    Goes to show we shouldn't call off winter just yet. Yes the synoptics are pretty bad for coldies but I wouldn't be surprised if the cold came back in March. The positioning of that high is key on whether we get spring or winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    2 minutes ago, Don said:

    Following the first BFTE 2018 which broke down on Saturday March 3rd, the following weekend was very mild with temps in the mid teens.  The 'mini' BFTE then arrived the weekend of the 17th.  What was strange was the Friday 16th was very mild at around 13C and yet by Saturday morning temps were around 0C with snow showers!  A third BFTE was then predicted to arrive around Easter but didn't quite materialise.

    Yep, those are the lines I’m thinking along, @Don, could certainly be one more cold spell, possibly two given we are earlier in the season this time, then rapid switch to spring, and a heatwave into early summer - you heard it here first!  That is what I think will happen.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Yep, those are the lines I’m thinking along, @Don, could certainly be one more cold spell, possibly two given we are earlier in the season this time, then rapid switch to spring, and a heatwave into early summer - you heard it here first!  That is what I think will happen.  

    I'm hoping that will indeed be the case Mike.  However, I feel the next cold spell might not be until March now, whereas the final week of February was favoured, which of course in line with the Metoffice's current extended outlook.  However, that doesn't look likely on tonight's model runs, but possibly still time to turn around?

    My other concern is this February appears to be shaping up very similar to 2009 and 2012 and the Marches which followed were mild.  However, that does not mean this March will necessarily follow suit of course.

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    5 minutes ago, Don said:

    Following the first BFTE 2018 which broke down on Saturday March 3rd, the following weekend was very mild with temps in the mid teens.  The 'mini' BFTE then arrived the weekend of the 17th.  What was strange was the Friday 16th was very mild at around 13C and yet by Saturday morning temps were around 0C with snow showers!  A third BFTE was then predicted to arrive around Easter but didn't quite materialise.

    I recall that spell as being another where the air temperature was below zero for a couple of days but snow struggled to settle due to ground temps being to high. Hopefully after a winter of people screaming 'blizzard' at pretty but essentially wet charts and shouting 'buried' in scenarios where other factors were not conducive to snow settling people will have learnt a lot this winter.

    Looking at tonight's output something short and sharp from the east right at the end of the month can't be ruled out but being objective it seems to me that the stage is set, the orchestra is ready and the fat lady is going through her final preparations. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    27 minutes ago, georgiedre said:

    Can't see 20c but 19c over my area in nw wales.. Happy days

    Tmax in the bottom right is 20c 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    Just now, Don said:

    I'm hoping that will indeed be the case Mike.  However, I feel the next cold spell might not be until March now, whereas the final week of February was favoured, which of course in line with the Metoffice's current extended outlook.  However, that doesn't look likely on tonight's model runs, but possibly still time to turn around?

    Yes, @feb1991blizzard said March too, so that could well be, my point is that there is still something in the ‘background signals’ tank to deliver another cold spell, and if it is into March, so be it, down here in the south as you well know it starts to require something special though, so i hope it reverts to cold in late February.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

    Lots of posts this evening belong in general chat. Please stick to model output here.

    Thanks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Better angle at T102 on the pub run compared to 12z?

    2D7C769C-93CF-4E0D-9594-E29DB8A8F410.thumb.png.373b5b3990ede841e300b6ce50fd216b.png959A8DB9-01B5-4AC1-ACC1-AC64B3337BAF.thumb.png.344b288bfa43eea3a45709c572096b4d.png

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    • Paul locked and unpinned this topic
    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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