Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion 10/02/21


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    4 hours ago, yamkin said:

    Interesting CFS model updated trend for next Wednesday 17th Feb. HP setting in allowing a very cold feed to commence (As Always: Subject To Change)

    362659558_01_CFS0ZZ50012_02.2021For17_02.2021_6pm.thumb.png.41423223980234fa5b304c237fdf5420.png

     

    Following the CFS trend for the 18th Feb, HP is more established with a very cold feed flowing towards the eastern part of the UK (As Always: Subject To Change)

    189562633_02_CFS0ZZ50012_02.2021For18_02.2021_6pm.thumb.png.7f1c2b0517b2001ea089954f18337fbb.png

     

    Continuing the CFS trend for the 19th Feb, HP again is established with a very cold feed especially to the UK's E & SE (As Always: Subject To Change)

    2057519158_03_CFS0ZZ50012_02.2021For19_02.2021_6pm.thumb.png.9100768f5fce891bdb04e089e1711ed4.png

    The 6z is even more awesome-16c uppers over several days in Kent even colder than now! Likely featuring a wind flow to benefit most regions from Easterly to North easterly to a Northerly  and it all starts in less than a weeks time, a very surprising update surely too quick though?

     

    Meanwhile the monthly anomalies show a very cold Spring relative to average too, particularly March and May in the far SE and April in the north

    Screenshot_20210212-160534_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210212-160339_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210212-160357_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210212-160422_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210212-160439_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210212-160202_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210212-160206_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210212-160211_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Edited by Kentspur
    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 1.8k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

    The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

    Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    48 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Very ukmo like.. could be exciting when that comes out at 4.

    More westwards adjustments please!

    Well, it's gone 4 and no one has posted, this will be why. 

     

    image.thumb.png.75150159cd96ea6cb255b80d9e3739d0.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: SE Kent
  • Location: SE Kent

    In other words, after milder temperatures move in from the west we could see another cold shot from the East. Or we could have HP close to the UK providing chiller, but drier weather depending on the position of the higher pressure.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    UKMO at 144👎

    Not much blocking showing there, a little weak ridge to the north butlow pressure over the UK 

    UN144-21 (1) (21).gif

    WAA on UKMO 120 reaches right into the Artic, not sure what to make of it really . But you'd think it would help establish a decent high.

    DB17779E-450B-444F-A4D3-8F5CB9FBD988.thumb.gif.fbe6fa92c274a95d6ceff9a204d40918.gif

    2E804DDC-32F8-47D2-A5AB-EF480E6A4426.thumb.gif.db041505f6f1f0c094054dfea486e877.gif

    At 144 UKMO isn't to far of ECM 144 from this morning.

    2AA48527-2A65-4EEC-AFCD-052617304BEF.thumb.png.12d4c06d9909f9e087c613f3c4a00a70.png

    A return to a cold flow is looking likely IMO, maybe from day 8-9?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Ironically although this is a garbage GFS 12z, its as flat as a pancake compared to our NE, it wasn't until the latter frames it delivered, and the upstream pattern is nearly identical at 192, so this could actually deliver still.

    image.thumb.png.01f7118d8b1530cc5ff6b09dc1532bdb.pngimage.thumb.png.1b0250d105cdefc36febae431153b63b.png

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The UKMO blows the high away and is so different from its 00hrs run that it’s hard to know whether it’s found a new trend or has completely lost the plot .

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, chris55 said:

    WAA on UKMO 120 reaches right into the Artic, not sure what to make of it really . But you'd think it would help establish a decent high.

    DB17779E-450B-444F-A4D3-8F5CB9FBD988.thumb.gif.fbe6fa92c274a95d6ceff9a204d40918.gif

    2E804DDC-32F8-47D2-A5AB-EF480E6A4426.thumb.gif.db041505f6f1f0c094054dfea486e877.gif

    At 144 UKMO isn't to far of ECM 144 from this morning.

    2AA48527-2A65-4EEC-AFCD-052617304BEF.thumb.png.12d4c06d9909f9e087c613f3c4a00a70.png

    A return to a cold flow is looking likely IMO, maybe from day 8-9?

    I think the important thing is that building heights to the north is favoured by the recent model runs.  Where any eventual high sets up is uncertain, for sure.  I said the other day the chance of the atlantic barrelling through is very small, the two options seem to be a high in the vicinity of the UK, or something further north with about equal probability in my view - in the latter case orientation will be key to a further easterly.

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    1 minute ago, chris55 said:

    WAA on UKMO 120 reaches right into the Artic, not sure what to make of it really . But you'd think it would help establish a decent high.

    DB17779E-450B-444F-A4D3-8F5CB9FBD988.thumb.gif.fbe6fa92c274a95d6ceff9a204d40918.gif

    2E804DDC-32F8-47D2-A5AB-EF480E6A4426.thumb.gif.db041505f6f1f0c094054dfea486e877.gif

    At 144 UKMO isn't to far of ECM 144 from this morning.

    2AA48527-2A65-4EEC-AFCD-052617304BEF.thumb.png.12d4c06d9909f9e087c613f3c4a00a70.png

    A return to a cold flow is looking likely IMO, maybe from day 8-9?

    Usually, I'm optimistic and try to find a possible route to cold, but with the Atlantic trough so vigorous, it's going to be a while before we could get back into cold based on that chart.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Judging by the GEFS at T120hrs they’re more progressive than the 06 hrs run so perhaps the UKMO is onto something .

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Usually, I'm optimistic and try to find a possible route to cold, but with the Atlantic trough so vigorous, it's going to be a while before we could get back into cold based on that chart.

    Im not convinced that UKMO 144 is a game over kind of chart.

    The Atlantic trough is vigorous but its negatively tilted and struggling against the deep cold over Scandi.

    A disruption of the trough with a wedge of heights developing over the Norwegian Sea isn't out of the question. Will be interesting to see how ECM deals with 144 plus.

    96379C4E-A4AC-4699-A65B-640F292256CC.thumb.gif.b47f1535308baa329f6190a661072756.gif

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
    6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Usually, I'm optimistic and try to find a possible route to cold, but with the Atlantic trough so vigorous, it's going to be a while before we could get back into cold based on that chart.

    Yes the hope from this morning 's run was that we would see more energy drive south se.As it is a quick route to cold again looks less likely in the coming week.

    GFS having another go at driving the uk ridge north again later on whether this will amount to anything we will see.The mean charts have been favouring a UK high in week 2 so it would be no surprise to see that again.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    No matter hoe difficult it makes the run it leads to another Easterly i feel ,just as the build up to this one did

    image.thumb.png.34ce7925e69c6a89161eca26078a517f.png

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Still similar on the gfs 12z to previous runs up to d8 but when we lose the Arctic High post-d9 another one appears, again forcing the pattern towards an East Europe trough, so preventing the HLB that developed on the 06z:

    06z>2056610506_gfsnh-0-300(1).thumb.png.3c271adbb0f596882a693b75239c0207.png

    12z>1333128297_gfsnh-0-294(1).thumb.png.f1d31c6c075a829eae270046ff369658.png

    I suppose the Arctic high is a strat>trop response and if that is the case it does not favour us ATM. That of course may change as it is FI post d8, but not a pattern we want to see repeated if cold is your thing!

    In the near-term average for Mon-Friday next week IMBY and then on the 12z very mild for 5+ days? Dry from Wednesday to the foreseeable IMBY according to the gfs 12z, all of course, subject to change!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Exeter must be scratching its head at what the UKMO is showing,especially as there write up differs so much!! The GFS 6z was quicker to shift Heights to the North earlier and the 12z is kinda trying but struggling to work out what the hells going on! Bit like me to be fair 🤣 Bottom line is its a very close call and you can see by the charts I've posted its not going to take much of a tweak to tap into significant cold.. Remember a week or so before this current cold spell? The models were really struggling with the evolution,GFS brought it,then dropped it...Ecm took an age to even bring it! Perhaps that current warming could be bringing some confusement...either way there certainly isn't much to drive the Atlantic.. 

    Anyway folks you've worked hard these past 7 days....Time for you to unwind and have a little Drink...

    gfs-1-282.png

    gfs-0-282.png

    tenor-8.gif

    • Like 8
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    UKMO is interesting just wish it had a little more stronger heights NE. Interesting that the models have found some more oomph in the Atlantic again. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    GEM is a variation on the gfs theme at d10 and there is good consistency ATM between models, so although this could change, it is more likely that the long-wave pattern is established. D10 GEM:

    167896255_gemnh-0-240(1).thumb.png.025a6a912bb12976dacd0529053f7c9d.pnggemnh-1-240.thumb.png.7761a7d3d449a67a475e1f96bb895a7a.png

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

     No easterly this time but this is the next best thing IMO ...

    DAB59A3A-C1AF-4B3D-BE2D-865F0C31CD9E.png

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

     No easterly this time but this is the next best thing IMO ...

    DAB59A3A-C1AF-4B3D-BE2D-865F0C31CD9E.png

    Yes Tim thats a chart I will want to be viewing come June...until now that High pressure can either shift North or go and do one!! Either way its very unlikely that chart at day 15 will be anywhere close...unless its bringing frigid conditions back In...in which case its bound to be correct.🤔😉🤓

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    8 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Yes Tim thats a chart I will want to be viewing come June...until now that High pressure can either shift North or go and do one!! Either way its very unlikely that chart at day 15 will be anywhere close...unless its bringing frigid conditions back In...in which case its bound to be correct.🤔😉🤓

    Anything other than low after low bringing floods and mud and I’ll be happy. Down here it’s been a very wet winter so just don’t want a repeat of 10c and constant rain! 
    GFSp looks a bit more interested in a scandi high...

    084C2A4B-038F-42F7-9308-07EED711206A.png

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    2 hours ago, Tamara said:

     

    Thanks Tamara. Brilliant update again.

    Edited by Polar Maritime
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    It’s a shame the winds aren’t lighter tonight as with such low dew points and clear skies there could have been some very low temps more widely especially over any snow cover .

    The cold spell looks like it’s going to leave the party out of the backdoor with little fanfare . So not the snowy breakdown many here would have liked to see,

    Tonights outputs from the GFS/GEM still go with a largely blocked pattern but the UKMO has thrown somewhat of a curveball into proceedings with a much more progressive day 6 .

    It blows the high away much further to the east and instead develops some Arctic heights .

     

    Edited by nick sussex
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...