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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: Walsall
  • Location: Walsall
    22 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

    Hi Neil Harris, hard to be sure at the moment considering the big swing in changes that can occur from the models at that time period. But I think there are current signs for things to start warming up over the next 2 weeks. A chance for the weather to become less chillier anyway. Something that the ensembles and, in some ways, the anomaly charts point to.

    Some warmer, sunnier, days getting into the mix, such as in late March, would personally be grand over the next week or 2, and certainly beyond.

    Edit: Sorry, quoted the wrong person. Meant for Neil Harris 😂🙈

    Thank you. Got a couple of days off so hoping to visit a pub garden or two. Will be watching this thread closely

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    Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

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    Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    2 hours ago, Neil Harris said:

    Thank you. Got a couple of days off so hoping to visit a pub garden or two. Will be watching this thread closely

    Looking very cool after work Monday in them 🍺 gardens 

    Even the isle of silly is in single figures 

    Patio heaters on full please 🥶

    image.thumb.gif.a3f769e46ee0872afb6f87f27911764e.gif

    A slight rise towards the end of next week but still below the mean...Brrrr for April !!!

    image.thumb.gif.1e6874e13075e4bdda1aad6742991932.gif

    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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    Posted
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy days and long hot summer days with a big overnight thunderstorm
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK

    Looking likely will see another northerly plunge over this weekend bringing cold temperatures, frosty nights and the risk of more snow for some.❄

    Capture.thumb.PNG.6b23e1e813bd032b5ca2783002a3fe44.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Not followed the models for a couple of days, GFS 12z looks like a shifting of patterns from Greenland area to Scandi, T96, T144, T192:

    77F36305-78C1-4755-84F8-9A280AE5ED73.thumb.png.c7d1c775cd9aefbe814c5ddbf78d1f98.png95F56763-88B5-4F3F-93A7-6520329D9894.thumb.png.f68f9cb3fb3f46e566675851c16fc354.pngD4BC4787-A863-48F6-BA3B-782AF8C28337.thumb.png.c81c7511e98d4ec4c28a35607e829f1c.png

    Still a fairly cool outlook, but with heights over Scandi we will benefit from the warm up as we go through mid spring if it isn’t there yet.  Much happier with this for summer warmth prospects.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    Well from Saturday right out to end of the run (with exception of following Monday/Tuesday) the gfs 12z is showing an easterly based patten . Seems incredible although maybe not for this time of year...

    image.thumb.png.1dc2e2c0b125920fbb6d261013634025.pngimage.thumb.png.35f94ea718807bf68d81f5124de66425.png

    After a cool start it does warm up a bit...

    image.thumb.png.1a183f81dec0330c89d4345a0b546d16.png

     

    No sign of any plumes though (yet)....

    A cool spring seems the name of the game this year...will be interesting to see the 12z GEFS later..

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    OK, ECM frame by frame, because I’m bored.

    T120, looks like following GFS and building a high pressure over the UK:

    F0A6CE3E-38C7-4468-A144-CC02A571683A.thumb.png.3edb8d158d705e8bc31898294b9a5f9f.png

    Nothing lurking in the Atlantic, note, well story of winter really, issue really is where the high pressures settle.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM T144, and to look at that you have to wonder what will drive our weather going forward:

    B224D4E3-B3E3-42F2-9370-9723AFBD8BD0.thumb.png.a8137ce856804092544a3175f4d63311.png

    Does look a bit like a terrier with one eye staring directly at us. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM T168:

    E2BA6AD5-519C-4E3D-9324-2BDB3A57DCD4.thumb.png.306f2277edb9ecf78e84f0723c6b47a6.png

    Seen enough, i think, the shift towards higher pressure over scandi is here too, might be a cool easterly but if the trend continues for any length of time, decent warm spring weather should follow, in the absence of anything nasty waiting in the wings from the west.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

    Looks like another awful weekend coming  up, do we know how far north that front is going to go traversing into France?

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
    1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

    Not followed the models for a couple of days, GFS 12z looks like a shifting of patterns from Greenland area to Scandi, T96, T144, T192:

    77F36305-78C1-4755-84F8-9A280AE5ED73.thumb.png.c7d1c775cd9aefbe814c5ddbf78d1f98.png95F56763-88B5-4F3F-93A7-6520329D9894.thumb.png.f68f9cb3fb3f46e566675851c16fc354.pngD4BC4787-A863-48F6-BA3B-782AF8C28337.thumb.png.c81c7511e98d4ec4c28a35607e829f1c.png

    Still a fairly cool outlook, but with heights over Scandi we will benefit from the warm up as we go through mid spring if it isn’t there yet.  Much happier with this for summer warmth prospects.

     

    Yes, well supported across all the models and a distinct change of pattern. The heights get washed out of Greenland and as it's the season for northern blocking quickly set up again in Scandinavia.

    JMA this evening at T+240:

    image.thumb.png.5da80e86a09395e913cb280e65c80ea1.png

    Not quite the same in profile as GFS or ECM but the signal for strong heights over Scandinavia has obviously become dominant.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    20 minutes ago, stodge said:

    Yes, well supported across all the models and a distinct change of pattern. The heights get washed out of Greenland and as it's the season for northern blocking quickly set up again in Scandinavia.

    JMA this evening at T+240:

    image.thumb.png.5da80e86a09395e913cb280e65c80ea1.png

    Not quite the same in profile as GFS or ECM but the signal for strong heights over Scandinavia has obviously become dominant.

    Yes JMA interesting at T264, thought this didn’t come out til midnight, but hey, signals of Azores scandi link up:

    42D0598B-D5DF-46B6-AF20-63A8661D43DD.thumb.jpeg.366ad05610bd6ece2d1634f19839a5bf.jpeg

    ECM heading the same way at T240:

    40F33E22-4CD3-4F3C-81DF-9F0F00217AD2.thumb.jpeg.bdafc55acfb5d7cedd9b86fe4418f38b.jpeg

    Pattern change incoming, I think so! 😁 This is what we want to see to set up a good pattern for summer - we don’t have one now, but with charts like these, it could quickly change in good time...we will see...

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    47 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

    Looks like another awful weekend coming  up, do we know how far north that front is going to go traversing into France?

    Looks like a cold wet day in the south east on Saturday, perhaps some sleet on hills in the evening as it clears.  Wintry showers for many on Sunday according to ECM

    970AAA0E-9B86-494C-93FA-248AD7244B71.jpeg

    6A6FC9E0-29D4-4AC0-B306-B0E2DDEB34D6.jpeg

    15BF7A39-3845-42E5-8557-BBD5603104AA.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    From a long drawn northerly pattern to a long drawn easterly pattern, if this was any other time of year I'd be wary, but in April far more probable. We exchange something notably cold for the time of year for something less cold, but still relatively cold for the time of year..

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    Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but despise Winter
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
    1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM T240:

    I’ll take that!  With the Azores getting involved:

    0BBA4B12-F339-4788-8A7B-0481489896F9.thumb.gif.45e32c9670ec5294df8331e98dcd33e9.gif

    Need to watch this if it turns up on other runs, Azores ridge with little from the atlantic to override it could start to show good portends for late spring and summer.  

    That is the word I like to hear again after this crap spell 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    Yes in line with the other models this evening the GFS 12 ens show a slow and 'steady as she goes' warming after the cold weekend. In line with an easterly based regime which will bring in slowly less cold air.

     image.thumb.png.c40e38f4bcfcbbbc2290cb3225446713.png

     

    The pressure ens shows a rise after the weekend then falling back somewhat as HP transfer further E and N, although the control seems to have gone off on one towards the end...🤔

    image.thumb.png.4a6f0b8946e4c9a25a88f19003be3c6b.png

    Edited by minus10
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    Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All weather
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

    Pub run’s not looking too bad for the pub run..........

    E90C9BF6-C81A-4CCF-B756-F85B4C937257.thumb.png.b59e3f825bb000e18154226821717d25.png4A35259D-3671-4175-90F5-02887A8E7946.thumb.png.66929444a613fe452f29bdc04b0031a1.png5E4116BB-123A-4BBB-AE47-2C39C0D28763.thumb.jpeg.f793781b777a8aa6b9ef9469dcfa7b95.jpeg

    ........at least later on in the day. Good vest and a thick pair of socks might come in handy though.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    No snow in this cold spell down south, might as well get some sun and warmth now.

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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