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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    36 minutes ago, Iceman2606 said:

    Incredibly low dew points for tomorrow going down to -14°C on GFS 12z!

    Wouldn't be good for convection if you want wintry showers as the air will be extremely dry.

    765930991_GFS3.thumb.PNG.77438a6a030ca283f8b0f3f70327a91b.PNG1547700072_GFS4.thumb.PNG.f6e619982c1233ba581d34faed323215.PNG

    Is it usual to have such dry air coming down from the Artic. ? The track is accross the sea so i would have thought the air would have picked up some moisture , unlike a dry easterly.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    Just now, minus10 said:

    Is it usual to have such dry air coming down from the Artic. ? The track is accross the sea so i would have thought the air would have picked up some moisture , unlike a dry easterly.....

    northerly is going too far east

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    21 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    northerly is going too far east

    That maybe but how is it that even in the north sea the dew points get lower the further south you track the air, over the sea.  Shouldn't the reverse be the case as the air picks up more moisture over the more water that it travels? Although not in the heart of the northerly we are still in it so how is the air so dry?  I can understand that it may be the case over the uk mainland however surely there would be evaporation over the sea? I am not an expert in these matters however this baffles me....(sorry mods if this is off topic)

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Ah... ECM 😉

    image.thumb.png.70c0a5d5e68826d8344debce34128aef.png

    Cool under that ridge though

    image.thumb.png.7ac9e7b8c35182e841b7a9394066b461.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    ECM 168

    image.thumb.png.e7c40e7ed83c93e021e9bd4427b06449.png

    High pressure doesn't look that convincing here. Could easily be pulled west to allow rubbish in. The High looks even less convincing on Wetterzentrale

    image.thumb.png.07415ececde9b120ac16cadbb2ae7b00.png

    Edited by LRD
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    850s on the GEFS for London on 12z basically indicate the next couple of days of cold, then less cold for a couple more days, then slightly colder again for 2 or 3 days, then inconclusive. An unconvincing attempt at a warm up later on but it's obviously at long range so not worth too much thought yet. But, I'll take a punt and say that this April is looking like it's going to be a cool and dry one

    GEFS Image won't paste in for some reason. Sorry

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The GEFS 12z mean shows there’s very good support for a second Northerly from the arctic towards next weekend, the operational runs show it too...beyond that, there’s signs it could become more generally settled towards mid month...lots going on..and for some areas the next few days look very wintry by early April standards, especially exposed northern and eastern coastal areas with frequent snow and hail showers and some widespread inland frosts during the coming nights. 🥶 ❄️ ☀️ 💨 🧊 

    C7F4DEFA-890F-4DA6-BAEA-DCEF6653960F.thumb.png.612cc82d3a26dafad99d757885749586.png5ABD1B5D-40A5-4D4A-BE6D-8A0150E528CE.thumb.png.633af7504b51786979de44aaeb59b1eb.pngCA4707CB-7E76-4EC2-964C-D5FBA5385C07.thumb.png.ae6bcac6a267117d18798b7186d3e58b.png368AA06A-A1DF-4869-94C7-9956FE1B1E8C.thumb.png.e588b8cb0547eed4da902a396ed87c3c.pngC6AD19F1-BE86-4617-A762-3052C3FDC1D3.thumb.png.fb2343da55289ee744bc1b7f1ac34c40.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    ECM 192

    I was wrong... the High Pressure holds on

    image.thumb.png.523a8e4565ddc12e4f872715dbb50c71.png

    Cool nights and bright days away from the far north and north west where there'll be more cloud and precipitation

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    A bit closer to now! 

    (Apologies NW if these are copyrighted?) 

    Incoming... 

    Screenshot_20210404-200136.jpg

    Dew points, not 2m temps. 

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.
  • Weather Preferences: Love Weather, Hate the Spin and Lies to do with our Planets Climate.
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.
    27 minutes ago, LRD said:

    ECM 192

    I was wrong... the High Pressure holds on

    image.thumb.png.523a8e4565ddc12e4f872715dbb50c71.png

    Cool nights and bright days away from the far north and north west where there'll be more cloud and precipitation

    The chart you used shows strong Diurnal temperatures across most of the nation.  I'm not sure you're Cool nights is the appropriate terminology in this case in all respect Subzero nights  but warm sunny days....!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.
  • Weather Preferences: Love Weather, Hate the Spin and Lies to do with our Planets Climate.
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.

    The Artic plunge gets weakened down somewhat midweek , but gets renewed late week into the weekend . April showers are certainly on the cards this year , Wintry ones at that , but the overall theme remains the same drier than average but colder than average. .....!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    12z EURO4 cumulative snow fall to T54:

    418439AC-0A6B-4610-918A-C758DA05C259.thumb.png.f8a150ef08be7d5d436fd862bfc53424.png

    Showing the northerly wishbone effect quite clearly, but Wales does better than expected, so maybe a westerly shift on the pattern at the last minute?

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All weather
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

    More of a NNW than a true northerly on the way for the UK itself. More progress inland for the showers on the western side by Tuesday with nice little squiggles in the isobars and a long uninterrupted sea track all the way down from the Arctic, and development of one or two more general disturbances embedded in the showery airstream. Combined with some convection inland, possibly why the ICON 18z still reckons on bringing snow showers in over a good chunk of England as well as Wales for Tuesday afternoon despite 1024mb pressure. 
    55C805C4-05D1-49FC-BD11-495D25F87F34.thumb.png.e48dd55a05e4725fff8ebf0ff5460f58.png048C4865-298D-4118-B7DF-96F1B6C4FCA7.thumb.gif.ea673468e214c9848932d69f13818f93.gifE8F50EA4-01CA-4E59-BCB7-911D9EA5DD18.thumb.gif.eb8e556a53c20365bfe3ff6008dfd173.gif

     

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    7 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

    More of a NNW than a true northerly on the way for the UK itself. More progress inland for the showers on the western side by Tuesday with nice little squiggles in the isobars and a long uninterrupted sea track all the way down from the Arctic, and development of one or two more general disturbances embedded in the showery airstream. Combined with some convection inland, possibly why the ICON 18z still reckons on bringing snow showers in over a good chunk of England as well as Wales for Tuesday afternoon despite 1024mb pressure. 
    55C805C4-05D1-49FC-BD11-495D25F87F34.thumb.png.e48dd55a05e4725fff8ebf0ff5460f58.png048C4865-298D-4118-B7DF-96F1B6C4FCA7.thumb.gif.ea673468e214c9848932d69f13818f93.gifE8F50EA4-01CA-4E59-BCB7-911D9EA5DD18.thumb.gif.eb8e556a53c20365bfe3ff6008dfd173.gif

     

    Looking at various output, I cannot see much in the way of convection across the British Isles, apart from Northern and Eastern parts of Scotland - grazing the East coast of England perhaps?! The majority of it stays well out in to the North sea.

    Just a typical showery wishbone effect for the most part.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beaminster, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Winter- Cold, frost, snow. Summer- Warm and thundery.
  • Location: Beaminster, West Dorset
    16 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Looking at various output, I cannot see much in the way of convection across the British Isles, apart from Northern and Eastern parts of Scotland - grazing the East coast of England perhaps?! The majority of it stays well out in to the North sea.

    Just a typical showery wishbone effect for the most part.

    Yep. Nothing more, nothing less. Going to feel chilly unless Your'e out of the wind. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All weather
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
    37 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Looking at various output, I cannot see much in the way of convection across the British Isles, apart from Northern and Eastern parts of Scotland - grazing the East coast of England perhaps?! The majority of it stays well out in to the North sea.

    Just a typical showery wishbone effect for the most part.

    Yes, fair enough, I would agree, the expected convection is generally low. There is a bit more lift though across Wales late Tuesday morning which might serve to pep up the showers, if it’s enough to be a factor in helping them on their way through to the south coast (at least that’s what I was thinking!). 
    E34650D0-22C5-45B1-96D9-FF0AE402FB8B.thumb.png.50207670333615824a58c1ecea4665ae.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    GFS continuing on its merry way this morning in fact offering up arguably the most below average ensemble pack I can recall for years with an unrelenting flow from the northerly quadrant. Utterly dire output. 
     

     

    67EA2221-0913-4B7C-8556-1C7FB93D0212.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    37 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    GFS continuing on its merry way this morning in fact offering up arguably the most below average ensemble pack I can recall for years with an unrelenting flow from the northerly quadrant. Utterly dire output. 
     

     

    67EA2221-0913-4B7C-8556-1C7FB93D0212.jpeg

    Wow. When was the last time an ensemble graph looked like that in April. A very prolonged spell on the way I guess. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    16 minutes ago, Frigid said:

    Wow. When was the last time an ensemble graph looked like that in April. A very prolonged spell on the way I guess. 

    Very u dual sy optics or new patterns for. The future?? Definitely Winter Bites Back for the foreseeable.... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    1 hour ago, Alderc said:

    GFS continuing on its merry way this morning in fact offering up arguably the most below average ensemble pack I can recall for years with an unrelenting flow from the northerly quadrant. Utterly dire output. 
     

     

    67EA2221-0913-4B7C-8556-1C7FB93D0212.jpeg

    Yes the 0z ens for herts only show the mean struggling upto 0 by end of its run. No indication yet of any real warmth. Indeed snow making it down to cambridgeshire and Bedfordshire now on the weakening cold front. ..

    image.thumb.png.693591e542ff006b3498ea291299549f.png

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