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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
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For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    The recent feature of op runs being amongst the coldest options continues on this morning's GEFS:

    image.thumb.png.feb6ccd1dc0de24404641759901a2d6f.png

    The mean reaches uppers of -5 for about 20 minutes in London. But there is a healthy cluster supporting uppers being lower than that come the time. Obvious question is are the milder members, which are bringing that average up right or wrong? If they are wrong, we're in for an unpleasant spell. If they're right we're still in for an unpleasant spell - but it'll be a milder one!

    Edited by LRD
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    51 minutes ago, LRD said:

    The recent feature of op runs being amongst the coldest options continues on this morning's GEFS:

    image.thumb.png.feb6ccd1dc0de24404641759901a2d6f.png

    The mean reaches uppers of -5 for about 20 minutes in London. But there is a healthy cluster supporting uppers being lower than that come the time. Obvious question is are the milder members, which are bringing that average up right or wrong? If they are wrong, we're in for an unpleasant spell. If they're right we're still in for an unpleasant spell - but it'll be a milder one!

    As it's time for making guesses as to how April's CET will go, the crystal-ball charts suggest hints of something better, possibly, by mid-month:👍

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    I'm now wearing my summer plumage!😁

    And the ECMWF looks to be firmly in the 'Who knows?' category, at Day 10:

    ecmt850.240.png    ecm500.240.png

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

    Pretty awful charts for April, it must be said. Just wish it was winter - I’d be getting excited now.

    Wrong thread this is the model discussion output not the moans and groans thread.

    Amazing weather at the moment going from unusually warm weather to unusually cold weather in the span of days with chance of warm weather records being broken then could be cold weather records being broken.

    Fascinating model watching again after dross for 6 weeks,

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Wrong thread this is the model discussion output not the moans and groans thread.

    Amazing weather at the moment going from unusually warm weather to unusually cold weather in the span of days with chance of warm weather records being broken then could be cold weather records being broken.

    Fascinating model watching again after dross for 6 weeks,

    Totally agree sleety 

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    The ECM mean is a cracker if you like winds from the Arctic 🥶 

    D771D84A-BCD1-4362-AF3E-4E1215240165.png

    74D28B88-FD73-4580-822D-78AB15D31083.png

    YES PLEASE 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    ECM 0z ensemble graph:

    image.thumb.png.644c9b39cf2f9cfdf97d57cb8e265146.png

    A few things I see

    1) a slight delay of the coldest conditions until later on Monday for London. Probably of no consequence though

    2) when the cold is here it's colder than yesterday's mean. Seems to be going in the opposite direction to the GFS ensembles which are trending warmer

    3) an op run which, yet again, is amongst the coldest options

    I'm very much looking forward to a hail shower or three and some fleeting sleet

    image.png.8043308248a0351aeb5e4bd3b3f82d0e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)
    10 hours ago, Empire Of Snow said:

    18z has no significant changes. Quite similar to 12z until 174h but the difference is that it's setting up a direct reload at 180h. 

    Boo, was hoping it would have reverted to colder again after the blip on the 12z. The signals are for the worst of all worlds, cold and unsettled in April but no white stuff.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    38 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

    YES PLEASE 

    Yes indeed, I have my bit & brace firmly in hand -- I'm ready to start drilling!😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    As we get nearer to the reliable we see the usual correction from the ECM and new-GFS viz over-hyped blocking, so the pattern gets pushed east with each run, as the phantom Thursday cold spell proved. So as the Atlantic high topples and sinks we should still see cold uppers dragged from the north, but the trough is now to our east and the over amplification is toned down yet again:

    d7 gfs 06z>gfs-0-168.thumb.png.089774e1c36dca93565b485aade0ba57.png

    At least we had the Yin to the Yang with the old GFS, now just the Yang, no balance here, just over zealous modelling of heights post-d8 and quite unhelpful. Looks like a 2-3 day cold upper air flow IMBY before temps are moderated more towards the average?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    I’m quite glad the GFS has watered down the cold spell like I said last night hardly anyone wants snow/cold in April as it will melt with any sun being out.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

    Lots of fair weather cloud around at the moment in the South - will the all time March record be under threat after all!? Interesting day ahead! Usual London hotspots are still forecast 24C! 25.6C to beat! 

    Gonna be a close run me thinks and after looking unlikely a few days ago, I think it's probably more than likely now.  Familiar trend these days of warm spells continuing to be upgraded.  Bit like the end of July last year when a warm spell was modelled and many were wondering if 30C would be breached.  The reality was 37C was recorded in London!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    7 minutes ago, Don said:

    Gonna be a close run me thinks and after looking unlikely a few days ago, I think it's probably more than likely now.  Familiar trend these days of warm spells continuing to be upgraded.  Bit like the end of July last year when a warm spell was modelled and many were wondering if 30C would be breached.  The reality was 37C was recorded in London!

    37.8C, 100F!

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    Several places have 23c+ , mainly Lincolnshire.... we might not have beaten the all time March record, but we have beaten the daily one. That was 22c set in 1907... So thats 2 daily records broken in successive days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    This really is looking like a direct hit from the north at 5 days out.  Uncertainty about how long it will last and what depth of cold will follow, but it is sure going to feel a lot different to today!

    The Met 10-day update suggests a continuation to at least d10 based on latest ecm data which is trending for a UK trough. The gfs moves towards that on the 12z at d9.5:

    gfsnh-0-228.thumb.png.27eb744cae504106ef40b2070157ad00.pnggfseu-1-228.thumb.png.3af8adaa79e485588bcbe37702c85414.png

    Certainly a cold upper flow and chances of snow for some I would have thought? The above being what many of us wished for in Jan/Feb! The tPV has been open to this all winter and finally the waves marrying with a UK direct hit!

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    Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )

    Still caution advised but the models are firmed up on at least two days of unseasonal cold. Remarkably well modelled by the Gfs in its strongest area, Greenland. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    6 minutes ago, IDO said:

    The tPV has been open to this all winter and finally the waves marrying with a UK direct hit!

    This is absolutely correct.  There has been no significant trop PV in any of the usual places all winter, and we’ve had a SSW, but we’ve never landed anything severely cold during the entire winter.  Obviously we have had colder and snowy weather on occasion, mainly further north, but it will go down as the winter of potential that was largely unrealised.  

    Having said that, these patterns are actually more likely in the spring than winter.  

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    6 hours ago, IDO said:

    As we get nearer to the reliable we see the usual correction from the ECM and new-GFS viz over-hyped blocking, so the pattern gets pushed east with each run, as the phantom Thursday cold spell proved. So as the Atlantic high topples and sinks we should still see cold uppers dragged from the north, but the trough is now to our east and the over amplification is toned down yet again:

    d7 gfs 06z>gfs-0-168.thumb.png.089774e1c36dca93565b485aade0ba57.png

    At least we had the Yin to the Yang with the old GFS, now just the Yang, no balance here, just over zealous modelling of heights post-d8 and quite unhelpful. Looks like a 2-3 day cold upper air flow IMBY before temps are moderated more towards the average?

     

    5 hours ago, Griff said:

    Being prudent, I wouldn't plan a BBQ anytime between Sunday evening and Tuesday lunchtime, and I'd be hesitant to make socially distant picnic plans on Thursday through to Saturday of next week either... 😜 

    That said, stranger things have happened in shorter time spans, we could be fortunate and have a slight glancing hit, blink and you'd miss it, or, equally we could be looking at the full-monty, double dipper, with a direct hit then more potent reload. 

    I'm not a gambling man, and taking emotion and preference out of the equation, these are interesting charts and make for good model watching. 

    As other, wiser people have said, this scenario is difficult for the models and I'd expect further chopping and changing... 

     

    20 minutes ago, IDO said:

    The Met 10-day update suggests a continuation to at least d10 based on latest ecm data which is trending for a UK trough. The gfs moves towards that on the 12z at d9.5:

    gfsnh-0-228.thumb.png.27eb744cae504106ef40b2070157ad00.pnggfseu-1-228.thumb.png.3af8adaa79e485588bcbe37702c85414.png

    Certainly a cold upper flow and chances of snow for some I would have thought? The above being what many of us wished for in Jan/Feb! The tPV has been open to this all winter and finally the waves marrying with a UK direct hit!

    Just so long as no one says anything is guaranteed, even at this range. 

    As already mentioned, I'd expect a few chops and changes yet 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    32 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Really exceptional stuff from GFS 12z just seems the cold taps are left running. Fascinating output for April.

    66206388-294F-45EB-832D-004C5D280263.thumb.png.0d17072aebec0287aa8b439476b4e12d.png467CA477-B6DA-4E87-A5C3-0F841CC8E59F.thumb.png.023770a9262d5e67934f10faceb6615f.png

    Yes the gfs 12z lines up at least 3 more organised sleet/snow chances for some in between the sunshine and wintry showers. 

    image.thumb.png.52b0053ee090d947029e831ad07571d8.pngimage.thumb.png.3c25641eb7cd8d4ac63e5f6bef05cfe9.pngimage.thumb.png.9427ac1a0e0e9d29db8357280b04a84c.png

    53 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    UKMO T120:

    95AE8906-571B-4261-A174-D13FEF1FEE80.thumb.gif.c17b504aac6a59ecd84fecd60145e53c.gif5E83613D-8AB7-49B5-999D-3746ED124A09.thumb.gif.631d25fb3dd38d0b42c75d87ed4a41fc.gif

    GFS T120:

    1F55A913-2AE8-4BE5-B544-891114FCCB53.thumb.png.f479e2f0de98aa5d07f4c66d3e137540.png5C9FC041-6498-4D8B-B70E-8233D3269BD5.thumb.png.8c4aa5095a3c55c8e0e177f985012357.png

    This really is looking like a direct hit from the north at 5 days out.  Uncertainty about how long it will last and what depth of cold will follow, but it is sure going to feel a lot different to today!

    I think the UKMO T120 presents the almost perfect northerly Mike....


     

    Edited by minus10
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