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Model output discussion 10/02/21


Message added by Paul,

Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    13 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    Looking way ahead here but check out these charts for Easter Sunday at 15:00 - just for a wee bit of fun at this range! All subject to many changes.

    UKV:

    Temperatures: 

    4A7A1F1C-569B-4448-A541-5E7DC68AD411.thumb.png.dc2dc3bfdd4c4813d8c2810155e92d99.png
     

    Precipitation & Cloud Cover:

    13E7D5FF-6AFD-44F1-A6F4-5D53B224932D.thumb.png.0208e026317d22c040e19c69ee1e51cc.png
     

    Precipitation Type:

    1ED8F6C7-A439-4527-B5DF-80047A57B175.thumb.png.e4468a137f7a4922c6a40f07a3e27321.png
     

    850HPA temp & Sea level pressure:

    9951D564-BF7C-479F-A856-F91ABB7FF103.thumb.png.e2f1dab8479d5a14c79f826fa1842d09.png
     

    500-1000hpa thickness (dam)

    A4958740-D86A-472B-BBDE-8B9385C5AF9F.thumb.png.4cb3c54abc60d28ff36dd89898f9f1a1.png
     

    ECM for the same timeframe as all the charts above.

    50C4A094-973E-4996-BA50-FD8E8708B419.thumb.jpeg.118a2d936a005269aff66398a87da00d.jpeg8E37E514-19FF-48EA-BFDE-BDF4755C129B.thumb.jpeg.f5c1093f2d2a8186815521c6c974dd2a.jpeg
     

    I totally understand all the IMBY posts and whining about the potential incoming cold snap but for me and many others on this forum...that is exciting/interesting stuff in early Spring! 

    Risk there of a pretty impressive squall line moving through - blustery wintry showers sweeping in behind that...hail, thunder and lightning in the mix! 

    All this chat as well about how this cold spell would vanish from the charts if it was Winter...January 2021 was cold for most of the month! Well below average with plenty of snowfall for many of us throughout the UK! Coldest January since 2010! 1.5C below the long-term 1981-2010 average.

    4E2B2369-8D2B-46D1-A43E-2D4562EADDEF.thumb.png.14e515faa2c9cc4798b7398cfaab986f.png
     

    B46DBAF8-C1DA-473A-9BA0-0BE1A1116F83.thumb.gif.203b02383f5abbb54851584668b4d6ac.gif
     

    Thank god I love weather extremes/something different in every season of the year - heat, thunderstorms, snowfall, severe gales...bring it all on anytime of the year! (When it is actually possible of course 😆)

    UK Climate is suddenly becoming a wee bit exciting this year with the -23C in February and the 24.5C today. 
    Bring on more extremes through the rest of the year please! 😀

    Well, it makes a change from coldies whining when it all goes wrong in winter (of which I am one)! Plus I'm trying to be a bit tongue-in-cheek. This thread is taken awful seriously sometimes!

    January was no doubt good for you (snow-wise) but it wasn't for me. Rain in a January E'ly!! 😆 IMBY-ism is natural. I dunno why people get so uptight about it. Not aimed at you mate but I have seen others get cross about that). 

    Edited by LRD
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

    Is there not a whining thread on here? Spring Ramps and Moans? The only coldies I see whinging every Winter on here are the same four of five people from SW/S/SE England. 😄

    I like to pop in here to read about Model Discussion or something related to it at least - not trawl through pages about how depressed folk are due to a potential Northerly toppler.

    It is Spring after all - pretty standard stuff most years. 😀

    Really? Blimey, me and you must be reading different model output threads in the winter! 😄

    I think I HAVE been talking about the models in between my sarcasm. Like I say it's taken far, far too seriously in here at times! Speaking of talking about the models (ahem), the ECM run is right at the bottom of the ensemble pack for Monday - Wednesday next week and again at Day 10:

    image.thumb.png.ac1d58014c50f7147bd6381002363989.png

    But the mean is still cold

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM clusters T192-T240:

    7D9D6129-CE10-4418-9EA5-B36F8D3EA646.thumb.png.376cd5f7e761a6299fb5387a0dcb9b34.png

    Well, where do you start?  Cluster 1 looks a plausible evolution.  But the other two?  They look highly unlikely to me, two blocks trapping a trough in various places.  I really can’t see this - cue this to happen, of course😁.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    image.thumb.png.7a51f963cd3f1acd75b5f131cfc439e3.png

    As Quicksilver pointed out earlier, the above are the warmer (than today's 0z and 6z) 12z GFS ensembles

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    Posted
  • Location: bramall lane the only place to be !!!!!!!
  • Location: bramall lane the only place to be !!!!!!!
    On 28/03/2021 at 11:42, minus10 said:

    That has to be one for the archive/weather history museum. Be interesting to know if that has ever happened before . Despite little chance of it happening the fact that these more extreme perts and the very hps being shown over greenland are occuring maybe a sign of bigger changes taking place....

    Most definitely I have never seen charts like that here I dread to think if that ever verified in winter would probably be looking at -5 to -10c in the day and -20c and below in some areas at night.

    Thankfully we won't get anywhere near that cold but talk of 3 to 4c maxes in Northern England and 0c in Scotland in April is baltic with -10c windchill as far south as London that will feel utterly vile 🥶

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:


     

    500-1000hpa thickness (dam)

     

    You could get a right belting from this you know, certainly if one of the more extreme op runs from the past few days verifies., guessing your location isn't usually conducive to big dumpings, too far West and too low ground.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Wow some great post's in here today with records being broken with todays heat for 53 years,...brilliant stuff,...same again tomorrow😎

    could records be broken again with this arctic plunge,...one to watch,boy i love extremes in weather and makes it more interesting and something to post about,...more please☺️

    _117758716_pa-58899229.jpg
    WWW.BBC.CO.UK

    Some parts of the UK enjoyed spring sunshine as the UK recorded its warmest March day since 1968.

    now for the cold plunge into the bank hol's...

    the models are certainly firming up on this now but we are still just outside of the reliable timeframe and this has a time to get watered down,i have noticed on the 12z gefs ens that they where not as cold as previous ens over the past few days,...me personally would love to see a cold extreme scenario that some of the models(esp gfs/gefs ens) have been showing and i would like to see an April cold record been broken cos this would go down in the history books,two records in a week,...bring it on😏

    the latest EPS at day ten is steadfast from previous days with +ve heights to our NW and -ve heights to our E/SE/and S

    500mb heights/MSLP and 850's temp anomalies 

    ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.c49eadd97f19fcbcd7a60dc61ca35181.pngecmwf-ens_mslpa_nhem_11.thumb.png.9528056ce11c8db26b62a4f94ee8e907.pngecmwf-ens_T850a_nhem_11.thumb.png.4eead5e337dd9e6c19d6124017397a2f.png

    a snippet from severe-weather.eu

     

    plume-warm-spring-weather-forecast-europ
    WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

    A strong plume of very warm air mass is forecast to bring spring temperatures for Europe this week. Then, a strong cold blast spreads south in early April.

    plume-warm-spring-weather-forecast-europe-pattern-change.thumb.jpg.c770558a3255c098aae6eaf3446c36c8.jpg

    going to view the 18z now,...take care all👍

    Edited by Allseasons-si
    typo
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    Posted
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m

    18z has no significant changes. Quite similar to 12z until 174h but the difference is that it's setting up a direct reload at 180h. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Morning gfs with some nice symmetry 😉 

    126hrs vs 216hrs

     

    gfsnh-1-126.png

    gfsnh-1-216.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    UKMO looks a stonker this morning . Has anyone got the 850s please ? 

    C0F8057A-BEE3-4CAC-8637-D57540267FEC.gif

    898F37A3-849B-4502-BB1E-DF9FC59C50E9.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Pretty awful charts for April, it must be said. Just wish it was winter - I’d be getting excited now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    27 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    ECM 144 -10s widespread 

    D36FE263-4CD5-43F4-8848-8869954D488C.png

    looks good for Cheshire Gap streamer, just cold enough -10 850's

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