Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Timmytour]

Looking at some of the model runs it would seem as if, although the clocks have gone forward an hour, the calendar has gone back three months!

[Frosty.]

I’m not seeing much of a downgrade from the ECM 0z ensemble mean?...still looks mighty impressive for coldies early next week, especially further north..and the same applies to the GEFS 0z mean, just about as cold as it can get in early April with some incredible / astonishing perturbations ..I’ve only posted the ecm mean charts here but I think my definition of downgrade must be different to some on here?! ️  

 

Edited March 29, 2021 by Jon Snow

[PUTIN]

Forgive us if we don't get too excited until the predicted Aprigeddon cold is inside T96, regardless of how many models are showing it in FI.

 

Plus as others have commented, something a bit more concretely cold south of Lincolnshire/Derbyshire would be nice to see, too.

[PiscesStar]

2 minutes ago, PUTIN said:

Forgive us if we don't get too excited until the predicted Aprigeddon cold is inside T96, regardless of how many models are showing it in FI.

 

Plus as others have commented, something a bit more concretely cold south of Lincolnshire/Derbyshire would be nice to see, too.

Wouldn't it just mate!! 

[BlueHedgehog074]

As has been addressed in the last few days, Spring will be waving its hand at us, as the models show some warmer conditions invading a number of parts of the UK over the next few days. Particularly across the Southern parts. All thanks to a ridge of High Pressure building across our South-East over Europe.

A chance today for temperatures reaching the high teens in places, especially over Eastern parts. Should be accompanied by some good spells of sunshine over Southern and Eastern parts. Cloudier towards North-Western areas with some wet conditions over Northern and Western Scotland.

 

Looks to become warmer still on Tuesday with the European ridge fighting its way further North. And with further spells of sunshine, particularly away from the North-West of the UK, temperatures could quite easily reach the 20*C mark in some places. Especially over some Central and South-Eastern areas. Some rain again continuing over parts of mostly Northern Scotland

 

Wednesday looks to yet be another warm day. Warmer than Tuesday even with a chance for temperatures to reach up to 22*C (perhaps locally a touch higher) in some Eastern spots. Could feel quite Summery. Much cooler over Scotland with rain weakening as it slowly heads South. Mostly dry everywhere else, perhaps with the odd shower or two.

Will be very welcome after how generally cool it’s been. The sort of scenes those, mostly away from the North-West, are likely to see in these next few days 

 

(And maybe some sunsets like this)

There is then a possibility to see some much colder weather developing from the North after the Easter weekend. But I think of we are going to see a colder shot in April, it personally might as well do it properly and give a bit of white stuff (for those who want it)

[rwtwm]

I have no way of measuring this scientifically, but I have the feeling that over the last 4-5 months, the GEFS have been less useful than normal as a tool for gauging uncertainty.

What I mean is that full ensemble flips seem to have become more common, particularly in the 144h range. They aren't completely new I know. Taking this weekend as an example, good Friday was certain to be cold until Saturday if you treated the ensembles as a range of possible outcomes. 

Once they backed off they all backed off at once. 

I know the ECM clusters have been better at showing the uncertainty, and the GEFS alone does not a good forecast make, but does anyone else have this impression? Or am I just falling foul of confirmation bias now I think I've spotted a pattern?

 

[PiscesStar]

3 minutes ago, rwtwm said:

I have no way of measuring this scientifically, but I have the feeling that over the last 4-5 months, the GEFS have been less useful than normal as a tool for gauging uncertainty.

What I mean is that full ensemble flips seem to have become more common, particularly in the 144h range. They aren't completely new I know. Taking this weekend as an example, good Friday was certain to be cold until Saturday if you treated the ensembles as a range of possible outcomes. 

Once they backed off they all backed off at once. 

I know the ECM clusters have been better at showing the uncertainty, and the GEFS alone does not a good forecast make, but does anyone else have this impression? Or am I just falling foul of confirmation bias now I think I've spotted a pattern?

 

Hi. Not sure tbh. I have noticed in subsequent recent runs that the high is either way west in its position or over the top of the UK?? Which one determines if it will be cold or mild!! 

[PUTIN]

Does the lack of contributions suddenly mean that the 6z models were terrible for coldies, or just that everyone's enjoying the higher temperatures outdoors today?

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, PUTIN said:

Does the lack of contributions suddenly mean that the 6z models were terrible for coldies, or just that everyone's enjoying the higher temperatures outdoors today?

The GEFS 6z looks wonderful for coldies early next week according to the mean and this small sample of perturbations...I’m sure some are enjoying the sunshine  and others are working?  

 

[PiscesStar]

17 minutes ago, PUTIN said:

Does the lack of contributions suddenly mean that the 6z models were terrible for coldies, or just that everyone's enjoying the higher temperatures outdoors today?

NOT TERRIBLE BUT THEY NEED A KICK UP THE proverbials 

[MP-R]

18 minutes ago, PUTIN said:

Does the lack of contributions suddenly mean that the 6z models were terrible for coldies, or just that everyone's enjoying the higher temperatures outdoors today?

Hopefully both! 

[minus10]

32 minutes ago, PUTIN said:

Does the lack of contributions suddenly mean that the 6z models were terrible for coldies, or just that everyone's enjoying the higher temperatures outdoors today?

Enjoying the sunshine and working. Lovely spring day

[Neilsouth]

4 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Enjoying the sunshine and working. Lovely spring day

The wind still has a "Chill" to it though, could do with buggering off :D

[PUTIN]

47 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Enjoying the sunshine and working. Lovely spring day

Fantastic here too, 19deg on the coast - makes a world of difference when it's a Westerly based wind not a southerly or easterly with their freezing on shore winds, especially this time of year with the low SSTs.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ukmo 12h @ T+144 hours, if you’re a coldie, Iceland looks the place to be!!....a bit too far west for my liking..on Sunday anyway.

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the Ukmo 12h @ T+144 hours, if you’re a coldie, Iceland looks the place to be!!....a bit too far west for my liking..on Sunday anyway.

Yep hence my comment earlier about preferring the pattern slightly too far E at this point. GFS corrects to a perfect hit. 

[Man With Beard]

UKMO suggests a pretty decent and not too cool at all Easter Saturday.

[Mike Poole]

GFS keeping the faith with the cold plunge, at T180:

Let’s see how this progresses...

[Frigid]

That extremely high pressure on Greenland has been quite consistent over the past few runs. GFS still hinting on a cold Easter Monday!

    

 

Edited March 29, 2021 by Frigid

[LRD]

GFS has a direct N'ly hit setting up at 144:

MetO gives us a nice Easter Saturday as Man Without Beard says. At 144 it goes weird compared to what's gone before and other models. Outlier I reckon:

GEM going west with the coldest air at 144 (it does eventually find a N'ly for the UK later in its run):

Edited March 29, 2021 by LRD

[Cloud 10]

The UKMO 12z harpoon's the Arctic blast at just 96hrs with a small LP which splits the High in two preventing full retrogression,unlike the GFS which is clean as a whistle.

Lets see if the ECM agrees.

[LRD]

5 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

The UKMO 12z harpoon's the Arctic blast at just 96hrs with a small LP which splits the High in two preventing full retrogression,unlike the GFS which is clean as a whistle.

Lets see if the ECM agrees.

I wonder if it's 'gone off on one'. Nothing like that has been even slightly hinted at previously. Personally I hope it's right but I'm not convinced by that UKMO run at all this evening

[Djdazzle]

A couple of date records under threat over the next couple of days, but the all-time March record (25.6) is probably safe.

[Mike Poole]

Hey, folks, leaving aside the potential cold snap for the UK, has anyone else noticed the heat building to our south and east?  In early April.  Here GFS at T240:

I’ would normally look in the archives to check, but they aren’t there because of the fire at meteociel, but this looks anomalous to me for the time of year?

Edited March 29, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Empire Of Snow]

A Northerly in April isn't unusual for sure but these Northerly reloads as shown in GFS are quite impressive even in FI. I hope hospitality sector business owners aren't weather models enthusiasts because these runs would drive them crazy.