Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Snowman.]

Crazy output for the end of March.

Wouldn't mind seeing a flake during the weekend but either way will feel chilly.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I had a little chuckle at this chart.  20C in London while its just 3C in Lancashire at 18:00. 

[Don]

17 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

I had a little chuckle at this chart.  20C in London while its just 3C in Lancashire at 18:00. 

20C at 6pm in March would be quite something surely?!

[Griff]

GFS 00z

[Griff]

UKMO 144  

[Griff]

GEM 240

[Griff]

13 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Great charts from the gfs if it's cold and possible wintry/snow showers you are after,...like me (i wouldn't mind one last blast)...

but the UKMO says no and i would love the UKMO to come off TBF ,...winter can wait until next,...well,...winter

144.

if the gfs was to come off then there would be plenty of convective showers about in an unstable north to NE wind with maybe some thunder snow

lets see where the other models go for the rest of the day.

To my eyes, and I might be very much mistaken, the UKMO looks a lot closer to the GFS this morning  

[Weather-history]

Bonkers GFS ensemble number 16. 

 

[Griff]

23 minutes ago, Griff said:

UKMO 144  

And ECM and // at 144

[Griff]

I'm being impatient with the ECM, but I've a fair idea where this is going to end up... 

[Griff]

You can't rush these things  

And ECM //

Edited March 27, 2021 by Griff

[Griff]

Time for coffee

 

[Griff]

One last one from me then for now... 

[Griff]

45 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Bonkers GFS ensemble number 16. 

 

I think that's just a copy of the ECM 00z at day 10

[Cloud 10]

Easter monday ECM.

 

[Scorcher]

Surprised no one is posting about the warm spell coming early next week.

The proper cold air is still well in FI. 

Tuesday could be the warmest March day for many of us since at least 2012. Reaching 70F in March is quite rare outside the SE and looks possible for us in NW England.

[Weather-history]

HERE'S WINTER!!!!!!!!

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Surprised no one is posting about the warm spell coming early next week.

The proper cold air is still well in FI. 

Tuesday could be the warmest March day for many of us since at least 2012. Reaching 70F in March is quite rare outside the SE and looks possible for us in NW England.

I think @Weather-history sums it up well for many of us.

Just now, Weather-history said:

HERE'S WINTER!!!!!!!!

 

[Guest]

It’s a poor mornings model output with last nights idea of the warmer spell being extended into wed/thurs by ECM/GEM & UMKO all seemingly giving way to GFS which has been unmoved on the colder air being fully entrenched over the uk by Wednesday evening. Still hoping the hugely unwanted northerly disappears but that’s starting to seem increasingly unlikely. 
 

Just a thing on summer, and while it’s not a determining factors I’ve noticed SSTs are  a pretty average even below which is something we’ve not seen in a while, along the cold blob having to seemingly dispersed somewhat I just wonder whether we are less likely to see the extreme plumes we’ve seen over the past couple of years. I’m thinking as much I hate to say it summer could be a real mixed bag with very little in the way of extended or extreme warmth

[seabreeze86]

WTF last April I had the paddling pool out. Will been some brilliant skies if this where to come off convection galore

[damianslaw]

9 hours ago, mpkio2 said:

I have to agree. I don't wanna be pessimistic but I hate when the models show these kinds of setups that are perfect for one part of the year and materialize at the wrong time of the year instead. Like this setup is perfect for the winter (Looking at sub-below temps and ice and snow), but we get it now in April? I just can't help but feel bittersweet. Like got the right pattern, but its all way too late.

I would rather the models show a long pro-longed warm pattern now

Quite normal to see such synoptics in April and May, indeed more likely in those months than any other time of year. Northern blocking very common in late Spring.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18Z even more unrealistic, was showing snow on back edge of Wed system, 21 degrees tues, then Wed night snow

[Empire Of Snow]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Surprised no one is posting about the warm spell coming early next week.

The proper cold air is still well in FI. 

Tuesday could be the warmest March day for many of us since at least 2012. Reaching 70F in March is quite rare outside the SE and looks possible for us in NW England.

Maybe because it's just a 30h warm spell? Blink and you'll miss it. In addition, children have Easter holidays, everything is still closed and on Tuesday the parks will be packed. Good luck with that. 

The cold spell it's not well in FI, it's consistently in every single run since 3 days ago with some variations. 

 

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

18Z even more unrealistic, was showing snow on back edge of Wed system, 21 degrees tues, then Wed night snow

If I remember rightly, early April 1968 saw something just like that? Again, so long as memory serves, it was 21C on the Monday, and snowing on the Wednesday morning. In Milton Keynes!

PS: Also had 15cm of snow late on April 11 1978!

Edited March 27, 2021 by General Cluster

[reef]

Whats not to like? Exceptional warmth with temps in the 20s followed by a potent northerly (a rare beast these days) which would almost certainly give lying snow for many.

A proper spring switcharound which ironically for here would see a record high March max followed by a record low April max within a week. After the last boring few weeks its great to see some 'weather' on offer!