Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Griff]

Here's the gem instead (which still seems to be just a dead link on www.meteociel.fr) 

 

[mb018538]

There’s a real risk Tuesday may not even be that good now....GFS has a frontal system diving south through the day. Depending on timing it could ruin things.

 

Should be noted that the GEM doesn’t really show the same. One to watch anyway.

[Allseasons-Si]

OK the mean is starting to get down below the -5 mark as we go into April...

[minus10]

On Monday 29th we have a long fetch SW over most of England,

While just less than a week away we have a fairly long fetch NE over the uk.

This gfs 12z run sums up easter....

[Frosty.]

There’s way too many great charts to post from the GEFS 12z..the mean is a coldies delight in the mid / longer term and some of the perturbations are jaw dropping stunners..or eye popping!...they even trump yesterday’s charts!...winter really could bite back from later next week onwards with reloads well into early April! ️   white Easter?..could be!     

 

Edited March 25, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Scorcher]

3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

There’s way too many great charts to post from the GEFS 12z..the mean is a coldies delight in the mid / longer term and some of the perturbations are jaw dropping stunners..or eye popping!...they even trump yesterday’s charts!...winter really could bite back from later next week onwards with reloads well into early April! ️  

 

Incredibly depressing thought after the horrendous last 3 months being stuck inside etc.

The one saving grace is that the latest GFS run is less cold than previous runs. Hopefully a trend.

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Incredibly depressing thought after the horrendous last 3 months being stuck inside etc.

The one saving grace is that the latest GFS run is less cold than previous runs. Hopefully a trend.

I reckon you and I must be the only posters who would rather have our skulls trepanned, than have to endure some of the cold, miserable weather conditions, being touted on here!

Edited March 25, 2021 by General Cluster

[PUTIN]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I reckon you and I must be the only posters, who would rather have our skulls trepanned, than have to endure some of the cold, miserable weather conditions, being touted on here!

It's not that. Many of us would much prefer real Spring warmth with lots of sunshine. But if we're not going to get it, or anything else particularly interesting, then we might as well have REAL cold if it's going to be cold.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

There’s a real risk Tuesday may not even be that good now....GFS has a frontal system diving south through the day. Depending on timing it could ruin things.

 

Should be noted that the GEM doesn’t really show the same. One to watch anyway.

Hoping the cold can hold off until 1st April so i can be as competitive in the March CET as possible, the front is kind of advertised sort of on the GEFS, then after that i would love to see -15c uppers with 1c temperatures and low heights, what a recipe for some tropical PPN intensity but of the wintry variety.

[Griff]

ECM next Friday... 

And then Saturday... 

Edited March 25, 2021 by Griff

[Frosty_wsm]

41 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I reckon you and I must be the only posters who would rather have our skulls trepanned, than have to endure some of the cold, miserable weather conditions, being touted on here!

Nope you can add me to, absolutely hideous charts being pumped out for this time of year, sods law says they'll probably become reality when I'd rather have some spring warmth! 

[damianslaw]

 GFS continue with the cold theme as we enter April, but different in the evolution. GFS now showing an easterly flow before becoming settled but still cold with heights to the north before possibly cold and cyclonic. ECM more of a direct northerly arctic flow.. time horizons are coming into the reliable, but need to see same theme through weekend before can call Easter likely to be cold, but the trend is there. 

Northerly and easterly airstreams far more likely in April and May than any other time of year.. the depth of cold being shown though is quite impressive, though we are only into April so not too unusual.

Edited March 25, 2021 by damianslaw

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

I reckon you and I must be the only posters who would rather have our skulls trepanned, than have to endure some of the cold, miserable weather conditions, being touted on here!

Nope you can include me too. If we’re going the arctic route, let’s do it properly for a few days, if not, something more akin to April would go down a treat.

I noticed this morning’s GFS showed a cyclonic southerly for the 8th after showing a northerly the day before so hopefully beyond the Easter weekend something more seasonal would return.

[minus10]

Long fetch SW

Very warm temps, up into 20s potentially,

Long fetch northerly

Temps down in single figures, lively showers

Potential reload from the north

Whatever else, you cannot say that the ecm 12z is dull and uninteresting....

[damianslaw]

6 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Long fetch SW

Very warm temps, up into 20s potentially,

Long fetch northerly

Temps down in single figures, lively showers

Potential reload from the north

Whatever else, you cannot say that the ecm 12z is dull and uninteresting....

Classic spring switcharound, very common in meridional flows this time of year, warm air advection promoting cold air advection shortly after. Many a time there have been switches in space of 48 hrs from winter to summer or vice versa. All very normal in April.

Edited March 25, 2021 by damianslaw

[Empire Of Snow]

The last couple of days even Greek islands had decent snowfall and snow cover down to sea level. They've all enjoyed it. From my point of view and with the restrictions in our lives still intact, it's all or nothing. If we can't have proper prolonged seasonal weather (sunny days 15C-18c), I'd prefer a snowy cold blast rather than dump, rainy and windy days at 10C-12C. That said, bring on the upgrades please either as an Easterly or Northerly. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Never an easy route to impressive cold in the UK after all its a complete reversal in our normal default southwesterly which always gives computer models some headaches. ...so still a strong hint of perhaps some exceptional cold for early April......

[stodge]

Evening all

Plenty already said on the 12Z offerings tonight and a clear sign for some interesting weather to welcome the new calendar month:

That's T+192 so Good Friday from GFS OP, Control and ECM. I really like Control's long-fetch NE'ly. GFS OP getting there but not as progressive while ECM keeps a slightly more N'ly component. Most of the models provide a spell of 850s below -8 over the Easter weekend before a recovery back to positive values after the holiday.

[lassie23]

Snow Got a week to fix my heating

[Iceman2606]

Could we see our first 20C on Tuesday next week??

[Mike Poole]

So many posts!  What’s occurring?

ECM 12z T240 as a starting point:

And it is supported by other models as other posters have said.  Good to have most of the models back on meteociel you guys!

But if you look at the clusters T192-T240 it looks now inevitable some northerly flow will happen:

It could actually be quite significant.  So it looks like it will happen, the devil will be in the detail, especially now we’re headed into April.  Interesting model watching again after a quiet period...

 

 

[minus10]

4 minutes ago, Iceman2606 said:

Could we see our first 20C on Tuesday next week??

Yes...this could be a week of extremes: gardeners and growers take note....

[Dancerwithwings]

3 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Yes...this could be a week of extremes: gardeners and growers take note....

Your right there, as soon as next Friday

[Mucka]

Some extraordinary output on the GEFS 18z including -16 850s over the entirety of the UK in April!

Several have 850's below -10 which is extraordinary.

The route to that type of brutal cold is from a direct hit  Northerly reload as a huge Artic depression drops South.

Records would tumble with something as extraordinary as that and frankly that is the only cold scenario that would not thoroughly depress me for April.

I think most of us want to be outdoors and feel the sun our skin and feel like they were coming back to life in the words of Floyd.

 

A cold damp spell with chilly wind does not wet the appetite.

Edited March 26, 2021 by Mucka

[Frosty.]

Just woke up, wiped the sleep from my ? ? and had a look at the GEFS 0z mean..and..it screams wintry reload potential during early April with heights to the w / nw, mid Atlantic high / Greenland blocking and lower heights to the ne / e....winter to return?!.. ️  

Edited March 26, 2021 by Jon Snow